You misunderstood my post. Leaf fans are pretty well saying that he'll win the Norris. He probably won't thus the disappointment. Pretty sure he'll be in the final three though. He's a very good d-man. One of the best in the league. Gio is better.
Norris Trophy Power Rankings: Rielly on top with gaudy offensive numbers
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JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Because look at who he’s competing with and what they’ve historically done.
Brent Burns has a 5V5 oiSH% of 8.92%. That’s a bit high, but nothing too crazy for an elite playmaker like him; he’s had a higher oiSH% on a much weaker team in 2016-2017.
Meanwhile, Morgan Rielly has a 5V5 oiSH% of 13.57%. That absolutely blows his career high of 9.35% out of the water. It’s also a full 1.54% higher than last season’s league leader in that statistic, while Burns’ 8.92% would be 71st last season.
Rielly will probably finish the season with a higher oiSh%, as a function of being on a better team and already being so far ahead, but regression to the mean is clearly due for Rielly, and it’s not necessarily due for Burns.
On top of that, just look who we’re talking about. Historically, Rielly is not in Burns’ league. Last season was a down year for Burns and a career year for Rielly, and Burns finished with 3 more assists than Rielly did points.
Rielly could take the points lead back, but it’s unlikely. And if he does take it back, it’ll probably only be temporary. He’s done an amazing job of hanging in with Brent Burns through over half a season, and he still leads in points per game. That feat is impressive, in and of itself, but very soon his name will look out of place in this thread.
Well right now there are 10 d men league wide with that much ice time per game.
Burns isn’t one of them. He’s 20th overall so I guess he’s not a Norris contender either.
By your logic the only contenders are Letang, Carlson and maybe Seth Jones.
Giordano, and Burns don’t play enough by your standards. Both under 25 per game
The Winter Soldier
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Burns is 20th not 45th in TOI/GP for D men, and he plays 24:14 per game on average not 22 mins. Which is just shy of 25 mins a game. And 20th is closer to 1-12 th in TOI/GP for the past 6 Norris winners playing a full 82(non strike) game season than 45th right? The false equivalency you noted is incorrect.
I Hate Philadelphia
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Reilly ranks 5th on his team for SH TOI.
I said the same thing when Karlsson won and I'll say it again. If you have the BEST DEFENSEMAN IN THE WORLD on your team, he is going to be out on the PK pretty much every single time.
A dman who scores points but is sheltered from tough defensive situations is basically a 4th forward. Sure, Reilly is great offensively but the real problem is with the nature of the Norris trophy itself. There really needs to be a best defenseman & best offensive defenseman award going forward. Reilly, right now, is the best offensive dman in the league but he is far from the best overall dman.
I said the same thing when Karlsson won and I'll say it again. If you have the BEST DEFENSEMAN IN THE WORLD on your team, he is going to be out on the PK pretty much every single time.
A dman who scores points but is sheltered from tough defensive situations is basically a 4th forward. Sure, Reilly is great offensively but the real problem is with the nature of the Norris trophy itself. There really needs to be a best defenseman & best offensive defenseman award going forward. Reilly, right now, is the best offensive dman in the league but he is far from the best overall dman.
BigEezyE22
Continuing to not support HF.
The 4 front runners should be:
Letang / Giordano based on all around play
Burns / Reilly based on points.
Personal bias is what defines the order
Letang / Giordano based on all around play
Burns / Reilly based on points.
Personal bias is what defines the order
Agent Zuuuub
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Would you say the same thing if Lidstrom killed penalties at the same rate?
The Winter Soldier
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Thread is not about posting history or posters. I called out your false equivalencies and factually proved they were wrong. 20th is not 45th in TOI/GP and 24:15 is a lot closer to 25:00 mins than 22 is it not. This is what is called as clinically destroying a false equivalency that you tried to portray here. Since there is no way of disproving this. Yes if I were you I would be done too.
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Leafs fans: “Toronto won the Stanley Cup in 2017-2018.”
HFBoards posters: “Actually, Washington won it. Toronto lost to Boston in the first round.”
Leafs fans: “I look at your post history and you’re just a whiny leaf hater.”
Lol no. Giordano or even Burns should have it before Rielly.
Maybe EK if he keeps killing it the way he has been lately.
Maybe EK if he keeps killing it the way he has been lately.
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Also you have to consider who they’re competing with for TOI. Burns and Erik Karlsson are competing with each other, while Morgan Rielly is competing with Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev.
Also you have to consider who they’re competing with for TOI. Burns and Erik Karlsson are competing with each other, while Morgan Rielly is competing with Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev.
He's competing with Gardiner and Dermott who are both left side defenceman and frankly that trio is one of the best left sides in the league, maybe the best overall. Dermott gets almost 18 minutes a game while Heed gets just over 13 (no idea who was there before tbh lol).
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Tim Heed has played like 5 games bro. Burns and Karlsson are competing with one another and Justin Braun and they are undebatably the best right side trio in the NHL, even if you consider Braun a replacement level playe. (The coach who plays him 19:55 per game.)
I did completely forget about Braun lol, my bad. I do think Rielly would get more minutes if Babs was more willing to play a left shot on the right side.
You don’t really understand hockey very well. The PK is not how coaches always want to use a guys particular skill set as a lot of it is standing in front of shots and dumping the puck down the ice.
Rielly is the 4th D on his team in SHTOI.
All the other main candidates listed here aside from Giordano are in the same boat. Karlsson is 4th, Letang is 4th, Burns is 3rd.
Also a good defenceman contributes offensively. The best defensive defenceman shouldn’t win the Norris if they contribute nothing to offence.
OppositeLocK
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I think he was more referring to the fact that offensive output is usually the biggest determinant of the Norris. They don't truly take it as an all around. I love the Leafs, but to say Reilly is the BEST all around D-Man right now in the league....
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
To be fair, Dermott is probably a better player than Braun at this point but that isn’t how Babcock and DeBoer see it.
I think Rielly fans are definitely losing this debate. They're giving it a hell of a good effort though.
Rants Mulliniks
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He's also a giveaway machine with over 100 more giveaways than the second worst in the league over the past 4 seasons.
Whether people like +/- or not, it seems to often play into Norris voting (the only couple years where Karlsson finished well with respect to the rest of his team in this category were also the years he won it, so it appears it means something to the voters). Burns sits at +5, 4th on his team but 143rd league wide. Rielly sits second in the league.
The Winter Soldier
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Also you have to consider who they’re competing with for TOI. Burns and Erik Karlsson are competing with each other, while Morgan Rielly is competing with Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev.
Yes, both Burns and Karlsson are also competing against Vlasic for mins, a pretty good defensive D man in his own right. Burns has 80:49 mins on the PK. Significantly more than Rielly has at 50:50. This is what you look for in a Norris trophy discussion. Not just citing points where players are sheltered playing only offensive mins as Rielly is in this case when comparing the 2.
PensandCaps
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Keep patting yourself on the back.
Here's what you did. Very simply put.
You said the last 5-6 Norris winners were 25+ mins in TOI/GP and were 1st-12th and that this is a great predictor.
Then I checked and found 18-19 stats that eliminate (using your great predictor) a couple of guys that many think are contenders. I didn't get into much detail but in case you're wondering.
As of today:
Burns- P/GP-1.09, TOI/GP-24:13 (20th in the league)
Rielly - P/GP-1.10, TOI/GP-22:26 (44th in the league)
Letang-P/GP-0.92, TOI/GP-25:59 (4th in the league)
Giordano P/GP-0.95, TOI/GP-24:45 (15th in the league)
Then, despite the fact that Burns doesn't fall under the 25+ minutes or 1st-12th ranking great predictor of yours, you bent the requirements and basically said he's close enough. Rielly isn't. I assume you'd have done the same for Giordano.
That's why I brought up your history. Because you're trying to come off as some unbiased analyst who's come up with some great predictor. But when it's challenged you moved the posts and defended a guy who's close enough.
I hope Gio and Burns get played a bit more. Otherwise you may have to move your predictor down to 24+ minutes and finish in the top 20.
Or you can just do that now...as long as it eliminates a Leaf.
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Agent Zuuuub
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People who parrot about pk time are very small minded imo.
Third liners take up pking duties for most teams. That doesn't mean they are the best at it.
Third liners take up pking duties for most teams. That doesn't mean they are the best at it.
Yeah what's with the PK stuff? I heard that on here when Karlsson was in consideration.
Rielly has always had a lot of PK time. He just finally gets more PP time this season.
Rielly has always had a lot of PK time. He just finally gets more PP time this season.
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