OT: Non-Hockey Sports Thread X - The Search is on! (Scramblin' Fran Edition)

[thestonedkoala]

Minnesota got (slightly) above expected value for the trade. Hard to get mad about it but alas you manage to find a way to get upset about something.

It depends on what model you're looking at:

Minnesota Vikings lead the 3 worst trades from Day 1 of 2022 NFL Draft

The Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, and New Orleans Saints all made head-scratching trades in round one of the 2022 NFL Draft.

nflspinzone.com

And sorry I got my math wrong, they moved up 12 spots in the 2nd round.

The NFL you can also draft for a specific position. It's a much more specialized league than the NHL. It's also much deeper for quality players. It also has a much larger roster to account for. It's why quantity over quality is needed at times.

Eh, the Spielman special wasn't always that great. Quality is still better than quantity in the NFL. You don't necessarily pick the BPA, but a lot of teams have multiple areas of need AND due to their contract set up, sometimes you pick the BPA and cut the veteran to save.

Well let’s say there’s 10 players who are all, more or less, the same talent level but different positions. Why not trade down and acquire more picks for someone you want, that’s at the same relative skill level?

Because all Minnesota acquired was an early 3rd round pick - more so Minnesota moved down 20 spots on the board, not 10 and yes that makes a huge difference. Seemed like a classic Minnesota Vikings move. Move down, there is a run on players, try to make the best of it...

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It’s not “only a 3rd round pick” in the NFL. You can have the expectation of finding an immediate starter at that spot.

 

[Wabit]

I think each team uses their own value model and it fluctuates year to year based on the draft class.

 

[thestonedkoala]

It’s not “only a 3rd round pick” in the NFL. You can have the expectation of finding an immediate starter at that spot.

No, you don't. You can have a player that may become a starter, but an immediate starter? Depends on the pick and the player, but just looking at the data - you have less than a 50% chance of getting a starter, especially on defense.

2017 - San Francisco picked Ahkello Witherspoon (no longer on the team), started 9 games, played in 12 and his GS has declined after his second season (maybe injured?)
2018 - Lorenzo Carter, started 2, played in 15. Became a started the next season, but injuries appear to be limiting him as well
2019 - Diontae Johnson - Finally a started. Started 12, 13 and then 14 games.
2020 - Antonion Gibson started 10, played in 14, started 14 and played in 16.
2021 - Kellan Mond - Hahahahah

Johnson and Gibson are good, but I don't think Minnesota will take a running back - maybe a wide receiver.

Just for fun:

Max Tuerk (RIP) played one game
Jeremiah Poutasi started 7, played in 11, traded to Jacksonville and was out of the league
Morgan Moses started 1, played 8 - but is a starter after that, took him a year
Sio Moore - started 11, played 15 for two seasons and then had a really weird career.
Josh Robinson - started 6, played 16, became a starter and then was horrible, benched. Does anyone remember him?

 

[Wabit]

It’s not “only a 3rd round pick” in the NFL. You can have the expectation of finding an immediate starter at that spot.

More like to get an immediate special teams player than a positional starter. Late season/injury starter or draft+1 starter is more on par with a 3rd. Still end up with a good shot at a future contributing player, for sure.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

No, you don't. You can have a player that may become a starter, but an immediate starter? Depends on the pick and the player, but just looking at the data - you have less than a 50% chance of getting a starter, especially on defense.

2017 - San Francisco picked Ahkello Witherspoon (no longer on the team), started 9 games, played in 12 and his GS has declined after his second season (maybe injured?)
2018 - Lorenzo Carter, started 2, played in 15. Became a started the next season, but injuries appear to be limiting him as well
2019 - Diontae Johnson - Finally a started. Started 12, 13 and then 14 games.
2020 - Antonion Gibson started 10, played in 14, started 14 and played in 16.
2021 - Kellan Mond - Hahahahah

Johnson and Gibson are good, but I don't think Minnesota will take a running back - maybe a wide receiver.

Just for fun:

Max Tuerk (RIP) played one game
Jeremiah Poutasi started 7, played in 11, traded to Jacksonville and was out of the league
Morgan Moses started 1, played 8 - but is a starter after that, took him a year
Sio Moore - started 11, played 15 for two seasons and then had a really weird career.
Josh Robinson - started 6, played 16, became a starter and then was horrible, benched. Does anyone remember him?

Yes, it still involves them taking the right player. That part isn’t forgotten.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Yes, it still involves them taking the right player. That part isn’t forgotten.

I mean, that’s the key for any draft, with any pick.

 

[TaLoN]

BPA is the best plan when making a pick... always is.

That said, the NFL draft is MUCH deeper than the NHL draft by comparison, and you can have large groups of players ranked similarly.

Kwesi said they had Cine on their board "in the teens". That said, even in the teens, it is generally considered a "reach" for taking a safety based on position alone. The position itself hurts the value.

They recognized that they need immediate help on defense. They also recognized that the players of best value at 12 would actually end up as more of a depth player next season once the top corners were off the board, along with the top linemen etc.

Considering roster sizes, quantity can also help a team immediately.

Since the best available didn't also help the roster as much immediately, they traded down to a range where it would, while also adding overall value to the pick in terms of another top half of the draft pick, moving their 2nd rounder from the mid range to the 2nd overall in the round and by taking a player they had ranked in the teens at 32, which made much more sense given the position the player plays.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Yes, it still involves them taking the right player. That part isn’t forgotten.

It kind of gets harder as you move down the draft board as well.

Don't understand why Minnesota thought an early 3rd is better than a late 1st?

 

[Minnewildsota]

It kind of gets harder as you move down the draft board as well.

Don't understand why Minnesota thought an early 3rd is better than a late 1st?

What?

They didn't think a 3rd rounder was better than late 1st.

They thought 32+34+66 was better than 12+46

 

[thestonedkoala]

What?

They didn't think a 3rd rounder was better than late 1st.

They thought 32+34+66 was better than 12+46

Because the Lions have (2) 1st round picks. In almost 99% of the cases where teams move up from having such a low pick in the 1st round it costs an extra 1st round pick to do so. In Minnesota's case...they didn't, for whatever reason.

More so, I think sums up the trade better:

If it cost Detroit the 34th pick to move up from the 32nd pick to the 12th, then why the hell did Minnesota have to move from the 46th to the 66th pick? Minnesota gave up a ton of value.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It kind of gets harder as you move down the draft board as well.

Don't understand why Minnesota thought an early 3rd is better than a late 1st?

They thought moving up 12 spots in the 2nd and an early 3rd was better than a late 1st.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Because the Lions have (2) 1st round picks. In almost 99% of the cases where teams move up from having such a low pick in the 1st round it costs an extra 1st round pick to do so. In Minnesota's case...they didn't, for whatever reason.

More so, I think sums up the trade better:

If it cost Detroit the 34th pick to move up from the 32nd pick to the 12th, then why the hell did Minnesota have to move from the 46th to the 66th pick? Minnesota gave up a ton of value.

Please pull up those statistics.

 

[Wabit]

I'd rather have the 1st or 2nd pick on the 2nd day over the 30-32nd pick on the 1st day of the draft.

It gives a night of sleep, time get a good look at the draft board with fresh eyes, and/or work on any potential trades.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I'd rather have the 1st or 2nd pick on the 2nd day over the 30-32nd pick on the 1st day of the draft.

It gives a night of sleep, time get a good look at the draft board with fresh eyes, and/or work on any potential trades.

No to mention, the salary costs diminish quite substantially, if I remember correctly.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Please pull up those statistics.

Updating The NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

Back in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys created the Trade Value Chart it was revolutionary. The Cowboys manipulated the draft with remarkable efficiency. As other teams picked up the concept the chart began to lose its value...

bleacherreport.com

 

[Wabit]

No to mention, the salary costs diminish quite substantially, if I remember correctly.

The 1st round pick get a 5th year team option. I don't know if the other rounds get that too.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Updating The NFL Draft Trade Value Chart

Back in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys created the Trade Value Chart it was revolutionary. The Cowboys manipulated the draft with remarkable efficiency. As other teams picked up the concept the chart began to lose its value...

bleacherreport.com

That, literally, didn't provide ANY statistics to the claim that you made. If anything it refuted what you claimed:

The value in the draft the past few seasons has been the depth of talent between picks 25-50 and 2009 appears that way as well.

First, the economics of draft picks has changed drastically over the years. The value of picks at the top of the drafts have diminished as the salary cap costs have risen.

 

[TaLoN]

That, literally, didn't provide ANY statistics to the claim that you made. If anything it refuted what you claimed:

Also funny considering the article includes this bit...

An example of the disparity in the value of top 10 picks can be found in Jacksonville’s trade up from #26 to #8 overall with Baltimore. According to the trade value chart the 8th overall selection should have been worth 1,400 points.

By trading picks 26, 71, 89 and 125 the Jaguars gave up only 1,127 points. Even with the recommended adjustments in the chart the 8th pick is 1,350 points and the points given up have only closed the gap from 273 points to 178 points.

In other words from a chart standpoint the Jaguars still got the better end of the deal just not quite as good. It just goes to show how hard it is for a team to make a move from the 20s into the top 10. Which leads to the next point of the trade decision.

As the Ravens-Jaguars trade demonstrates economics and the draft pool lowered the value of the players at the top of the draft. In addition, with the need to add as many quality young players as possible to one’s roster the value of the later round picks has increased a little as well.

Which the Vikes did better than... apparently even back in 2009 you didn't get another 1st rounder in return.
The Vike's return was better.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Which the Vikes did better than... apparently even back in 2009 you didn't get another 1st rounder in return.
The Vike's return was better.

And I said 99%, there is going to be some outliers. But I can't recall a team dropping down 20 slots in the draft ever. I think the most I've seen is 10 slots and that's generally in the mid teens. More so, Minnesota got only a 2nd round pick for moving back TWICE in the draft.

They moved from the 12th slot to the 32nd slot and then from the 46th slot to the 66th slot and got a 2nd round choice in that.

I don't think a team has given up as much as the Vikings to gain so little. Moving from the 12th slot to the 32nd slot should have costed the Lions at least a 2nd.

Spielman proved that more draft picks isn't always the best way to go either.

 

[TaLoN]

And I said 99%, there is going to be some outliers. But I can't recall a team dropping down 20 slots in the draft ever. I think the most I've seen is 10 slots and that's generally in the mid teens. More so, Minnesota got only a 2nd round pick for moving back TWICE in the draft.

They moved from the 12th slot to the 32nd slot and then from the 46th slot to the 66th slot and got a 2nd round choice in that.

I don't think a team has given up as much as the Vikings to gain so little. Moving from the 12th slot to the 32nd slot should have costed the Lions at least a 2nd.

Spielman proved that more draft picks isn't always the best way to go either.

You haven't even proven that it happens 1% of the time, let alone 99%.

BTW - Spielman's flaw was wanting to pile up 6th and 7th rounders. Kwesi wants to improve in the top half of the draft.

I'll take moving up 12 spots in the 2nd round while adding a 3rd rounder over obtaining 4 6th and 7th round picks like Spielman wanted any day.

 

[thestonedkoala]

You haven't even proven that it happens 1% of the time, let alone 99%.

Miami traded a first-round selection (3rd overall) to San Francisco in exchange for a first-round selection (12th overall), 2022 first- and third-round selections, and a 2023 first-round selection.[trade 2]

Philadelphia traded its first- and fifth-round selections (6th and 156th overall) to Miami in exchange for first- and fourth-round selections (12th and 123rd overall), and a 2022 first-round selection.[trade 3]

he New York Giants traded its first-round selection (11th overall) to Chicago in exchange for first- and fifth-round selections (20th and 164th overall), alongside their 2022 first and fourth-round selections.[trade 5]

New Orleans traded a first-round selection (30th), as well as 2018 first- and fifth-round selections (27th and 147th) to Green Bay in exchange for Green Bay's 2018 first round selection (14th).[Trade 6]

Most of the trades also don't involve moving more than a few selections up or down. I think the highest I've seen in 9, but that also cost a premium (2) (3rd round picks) and a 4th going the other way.

Moving down from the 12th to the 32nd should have at least cost a 2nd. Moving down from the 2nd to the 3rd should have cost at least a 4th and 6th round picks.

Minnesota gave up 1640 in value and got back 1,410 points in value. The difference is a mid-3rd round pick, which as Jan pointed out is a starter.

 

[TaLoN]

Miami traded a first-round selection (3rd overall) to San Francisco in exchange for a first-round selection (12th overall), 2022 first- and third-round selections, and a 2023 first-round selection.[trade 2]

Trading into the top 3 is very different than trading out of a mid round pick...

Philadelphia traded its first- and fifth-round selections (6th and 156th overall) to Miami in exchange for first- and fourth-round selections (12th and 123rd overall), and a 2022 first-round selection.[trade 3]

5th to 4th doesn't carry the same value as moving up 12 spots in the 2nd and picking up a 3rd.

he New York Giants traded its first-round selection (11th overall) to Chicago in exchange for first- and fifth-round selections (20th and 164th overall), alongside their 2022 first and fourth-round selections.[trade 5]

See above.

New Orleans traded a first-round selection (30th), as well as 2018 first- and fifth-round selections (27th and 147th) to Green Bay in exchange for Green Bay's 2018 first round selection (14th).[Trade 6]

See above

 

[thestonedkoala]

If Corral or Howell is there in the 3rd, do you pull the trigger? Be funny to take QBs back to back at the same pick (66th). I know the team wasn't happy with Mond last season and they can't keep trotting out Mannion.

 

[TaLoN]

Kevin O'Connell on Lewis Cine: Our No. 1 Goal Was To Add Our Kind of Football Player