NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread

[CerebralGenesis]

Ya we want regulation results but I'm still going for Philly.

If we get passed by teams then it certainly won't matter any more. If we start winning to make a run for the playoffs, then it won't matter about the teams behind us. That's my thinking at least.

 

[RandoDoomer]

I guess things feel so much worse than they are (hell, we're only a game out of 7th really) because it seems like a million years since we won a couple games. And by some some miracle it's still not too late to turn this around. It's really been a strange season.

 

[Devils731]

It does probability forecasting for every outcome too - along with the "who should we root for" part very well. For instance, if Philly wins tonight which I'm sure people are naturally be inclinded to cheer for so it freezes the Islanders down in the standings, well, if it's a regulation win, Philly is nearly tied with us in odds to make the playoffs whereas if they lose they are basically dead and we only drop 3%. It would eliminate a horse from the race practically. The Islanders can swing nearly 25% on this game as well. Pray for a regulation win either way - 3pt games are going to be the death blow at this point.

Not according to their methodology. Any Philly win helps the Devils more than any Isles win, if you're going by their site. So an Isles regulation win is not as helpful as a Philly OT or Shootout win.

If you're trusting in how they do their site, then you want an Isles loss any way you can get it, with loss in regulation being the best.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Not according to their methodology. Any Philly win helps the Devils more than any Isles win, if you're going by their site. So an Isles regulation win is not as helpful as a Philly OT or Shootout win.

If you're trusting in how they do their site, then you want an Isles loss any way you can get it, with loss in regulation being the best.

I don't know what you're trying to say that I said but I never said an Islander win improved our odds - only that it eliminates Philly from a playoff spot basically by having less than a 7% chance at that point of getting in. If Philly wins they are almost tied in odds with us based on remaining schedule. That's something a day to day look can't tell you.

You can't look at each day as a snapshot or you will be requiring long streaks of wins and losses to unfold which are not practical if you really want a feel for the playoff race. That site shows the tipping point being 52 points for the Devils.

52 pts will be about a coin flip of odds we get in. 51 and we're pretty much out unless something miraculous happens. 54 pts and we're a lock. But it also shows we're most likely to finish with 49-51 pts at this point which is only 20% to get in in all those scenarios.

That seems realistic to me. 54 pts is a pipe dream.

I'll just tuck this away here and we can look back after this is all over and see if the most likely outcomes actually did play out. http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s93/vagel117/odds-1_zps9dee7b95.jpg

 

[Devils731]

I don't know what you're trying to say that I said but I never said an Islander win improved our odds - only that it eliminates Philly from a playoff spot basically by having less than a 7% chance at that point of getting in. If Philly wins they are almost tied in odds with us based on remaining schedule. That's something a day to day look can't tell you.

You can't look at each day as a snapshot or you will be requiring long streaks of wins and losses to unfold which are not practical if you really want a feel for the playoff race. That site shows the tipping point being 52 points for the Devils.

52 pts will be about a coin flip of odds we get in. 51 and we're pretty much out unless something miraculous happens. 54 pts and we're a lock. But it also shows we're most likely to finish with 49-51 pts at this point which is only 20% to get in in all those scenarios.

That seems realistic to me. 54 pts is a pipe dream.

I'll just tuck this away here and we can look back after this is all over and see if the most likely outcomes actually did play out. http://i150.photobucket.com/albums/s93/vagel117/odds-1_zps9dee7b95.jpg

You were touting the website as doing a good job with playoff odds and they have a "who should we root for" section of the site.

You then said we really need to root for a non 3 point game, because that would be the most helpful thing for the Devils to get into the playoffs.

If you believe they do a good job with playoff odds and their "who do we root for" thing then you want the Islanders to lose, even if it's a 3 point game. An Islanders regulation win puts the Devils as less likely to make the playoffs than a Philly 3 point game win, according to their website.

So I was just pointing out that the website disagreed with you saying we really need to root to avoid a 3 point game tonight, that website says root for an Isles loss in any fashion, including a 3 point game.

 

[BenedictGomez]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

This site does it all...

That site is a an absolute joke. You should be able to eyeball that thing and quickly realize how badly mathematically flawed it is.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

You were touting the website as doing a good job with playoff odds and they have a "who should we root for" section of the site.

You then said we really need to root for a non 3 point game, because that would be the most helpful thing for the Devils to get into the playoffs.

If you believe they do a good job with playoff odds and their "who do we root for" thing then you want the Islanders to lose, even if it's a 3 point game. An Islanders regulation win puts the Devils as less likely to make the playoffs than a Philly 3 point game win, according to their website.

So I was just pointing out that the website disagreed with you saying we really need to root to avoid a 3 point game tonight, that website says root for an Isles loss in any fashion, including a 3 point game.

3 pt games DO hurt the Devils odds.

I don't think you know how to read that site or even what I was saying.

Current Odds for Devils making Playoffs: 20.3%

Odds Devils are IN playoffs based after tonight's game Philly @ Islanders:

Isles Reg win: 19.2%
Isles OT win: 18.6%
Isles SO win: 18.7%
--------------------
Philly SO win: 20.2%
Philly OT win: 20.1%
Philly Reg win: 22.8% (Only scenario where Devils odds actually go UP after tonight)

Notice that ALL THE 3 PT OUTCOMES are lower than the Regulation outcomes for each winner AND lower the Devils odds of making the playoffs? (18 < 19 for Isles win; 20 < 22 for Philly win). Loser points HURT.

Also note that if Philly wins in either OT or Regulation, they have a HIGHER% odds to make the playoffs than the Devils at that point. That means we got passed because even though they are still 1 point behind us, based on the # of games remaining and who they play, the odds are favoring them (ever so slightly). So even though a Philly win freezes the Isles, it brings Philly neck and neck with us. These are the complexities that a simple cheer for the Flyers stance doesn't show you. Philly is either going to drop to 10% or less tonight with a loss, or jump to around 20% with a win and thus be right in the thick of it with us. That compared to about a 2% drop if the Islanders win compared to where we are today.

So cheer for whatever outcome you like, the odds are against us either way.

 

[Devils731]

3 pt games DO hurt the Devils odds.

I don't think you know how to read that site or even what I was saying.

Current Odds for Devils making Playoffs: 20.3%

Odds Devils are IN playoffs based after tonight's game Philly @ Islanders:

Isles Reg win: 19.2%
Isles OT win: 18.6%
Isles SO win: 18.7%
--------------------
Philly SO win: 20.2%
Philly OT win: 20.1%
Philly Reg win: 22.8% (Only scenario where Devils odds actually go UP after tonight)

Notice that ALL THE 3 PT OUTCOMES are lower than the Regulation outcomes for each winner AND lower the Devils odds of making the playoffs? (18 < 19 for Isles win; 20 < 22 for Philly win). Loser points HURT.

Also note that if Philly wins in either OT or Regulation, they have a HIGHER% odds to make the playoffs than the Devils at that point. That means we got passed because even though they are still 1 point behind us, based on the # of games remaining and who they play, the odds are favoring them (ever so slightly). So even though a Philly win freezes the Isles, it brings Philly neck and neck with us. These are the complexities that a simple cheer for the Flyers stance doesn't show you. Philly is either going to drop to 10% or less tonight with a loss, or jump to around 20% with a win and thus be right in the thick of it with us. That compared to about a 2% drop if the Islanders win compared to where we are today.

So cheer for whatever outcome you like, the odds are against us either way.

You said to root for a regulation win for either team, that 3 point games are the most harmful scenario.

Specifically "Pray for a regulation win either way - 3pt games are going to be the death blow at this point."

By what you just posted a 3 point win for Philly is better than a 2 point regulation win for the Islanders, from the Devils perspective.

Maybe you just on a typing roll and didn't realize what you were saying but you weren't correct.

 

[apice3*]

I think you two are arguing the same points, just wording them different.

My way of looking at it:
If Philly gets points, we're closer to 12th.
If Isles get points, we're further from 9th.

I'd rather be closer to 12th than further from 9th, but I'd rather not be both.

I'm pulling for Philly the whole way tonight, even if they're down 2-1 with 30 seconds left. Gotta take risks right now, and I'd rather Philly battle for the extra point (hopefully shootout instead of OT) than giving the Isles a guaranteed 2 points.

 

[GameSeven]

You said to root for a regulation win for either team, that 3 point games are the most harmful scenario.

Specifically "Pray for a regulation win either way - 3pt games are going to be the death blow at this point."

By what you just posted a 3 point win for Philly is better than a 2 point regulation win for the Islanders, from the Devils perspective.

Maybe you just on a typing roll and didn't realize what you were saying but you weren't correct.

I think the site is great for reference and for ferreting out little things like the above. 3-point games for our opponents is certainly a bane in this case, but, except in extraordinary circumstances due to scheduling, in a race like this you need to deny points to those above you. So yes, giving the Isles a single point while allowing the Flyers 2 while remaining behind us is better than giving the Isles 2 points outright, and the numbers above indicate that. Of course, a Flyers regulation win is the best we could hope for. It is common sense, however, bearing out the percentages shows a relative influence for all of the possible outcomes. Of course, that is if you are of the 'weighted coin flip' proclivity.

 

[Devils731]

I think you two are arguing the same points, just wording them different.

Not really, but since he brought the website up I believe saying that the site does a good job predicting playoff chances.

If he believes that then he should root for

Phi Reg win
Phi SO win
Phi OT win
Isles Reg win
Isles SO win
Isles OT win

in that order.

He said his actual rooting order goes

Phi Reg win
Isles Reg win
The other 4 things that are all 3 point games.

So his statement that 3 point games are the worst outcome for the Devils and what the website thinks are the worst outcome don't match.

 

[GameSeven]

So his statement that 3 point games are the worst outcome for the Devils and what the website thinks are the worst outcome don't match.

3 point games for teams in the hunt with us are absolutely a less favorable outcome than a regulation decision. And, certainly when those teams are both equal or above us in the standings, they are killers. But, yes, when one of the two teams is behind us, it is the lesser of two evils to suffer the three point game if it denies a point to the team above you in the standings.

 

[Devils731]

3 point games for teams in the hunt with us are absolutely a less favorable outcome than a regulation decision. And, certainly when those teams are both equal or above us in the standings, they are killers. But, yes, when one of the two teams is behind us, it is the lesser of two evils to suffer the three point game if it denies a point to the team above you in the standings.

But we're only talking about the PHI-NYI game, so it doesn't matter what scenarios we might want in other games.

 

[GameSeven]

But we're only talking about the PHI-NYI game, so it doesn't matter what scenarios we might want in other games.

I understand. Just stating the obvious and how that correlates to the site's game analysis.

 

[DKQ]

Philadelphia starting Mason tonight...

 

[CerebralGenesis]

**** they are putting Mason in?

C'mon philly, even when I root for you you have to do something like that

 

[Uli Hiemer]

wtf are they thinking? they still have a chance to do something, and they put him in?

 

[Devils731]

wtf are they thinking? they still have a chance to do something, and they put him in?

Mason has a .943 career save percentage against the NYI. Philly got lulled into a small sample size decision, like a baseball manager going with a matchup based on 5 at bats.

 

[apice3*]

Mason is going to lose 1-0 in OT.

 

[OpethNJD]

Not sure who to root for with buff/jets...win for the jets puts em over us, buffalo wins ties em with us in points

 

[GameSeven]

Not sure who to root for with buff/jets...win for the jets puts em over us, buffalo wins ties em with us in points

Going Buffalo. They would be even with Peg with same games played. Would rather keep them both as far back as possible and not allow the Jets to advance in points ahead of us. Also, Buffalo with something to play for is better for us since they have games against all of our rivals, but no more against us.

 

[NorwegianDevil]

Tiebreaker + ROW ....

What is?!

 

[Bleedred]

For as much as everyone makes fun of Bryz if I'm going to start the goalie that gives me the better chance to win when I'm out of a playoff spot between Bryzgalov and Mason then it's easily Bryzgalov.

Maybe he'll prove me wrong, and I know he gave up 0 goals playing a period in relief of Bryz the other day. Steve Mason to me though is no big upgrade over Leighton or Boucher. In fact I expect Mason to look even worse behind the Flyers than he looked behind the BJ's. Kinda like how Bob looked terrible behind the Flyers, but an all star behind the BJ's.

 

[DevilChuk*]

Tiebreaker + ROW ....

What is?!

Huh?

The first tiebreaker is ROW = regulation and overtime wins
The second tiebreaker is H2H points
The third tiebreaker is goal differential

 

[apice3*]

Huh?

The first tiebreaker is ROW = regulation and overtime wins
The second tiebreaker is H2H points
The third tiebreaker is goal differential

To further clarify the 2nd tiebreaker:

If teams play 3 games against each other this year, the first home game for the team with 2 home games gets dropped.

Example: NJ vs OTT this year
Game 1: NJ lost in SO at home
Game 2: NJ lost in SO on road
Game 3: TBA, at home

Since we have 2 home games, game 1 gets dropped. Right now OTT leads us 2-1. If we win in OT/SO vs OTT on Friday and somehow tied them in points and ROW, we would go to the 3rd differential. If we beat OTT in regulation on Friday and somehow tie them in points and ROW, we would have the tiebreaker.