NJD Lottery Fail- Magic/Elimination Number Thread

[DevilChuk*]

To further clarify the 2nd tiebreaker:

If teams play 3 games against each other this year, the first home game for the team with 2 home games gets dropped.

Example: NJ vs OTT this year
Game 1: NJ lost in SO at home
Game 2: NJ lost in SO on road
Game 3: TBA, at home

Since we have 2 home games, game 1 gets dropped. Right now OTT leads us 2-1. If we win in OT/SO vs OTT on Friday and somehow tied them in points and ROW, we would go to the 3rd differential. If we beat OTT in regulation on Friday and somehow tie them in points and ROW, we would have the tiebreaker.

Yea, I wrote about that in the OP and have accounted for it in the tiebreakers that are posted.

 

[Emperoreddy]

NJ is still very much alive but it feels completely different because they've barely won any games for weeks now and the schedule is also pretty difficult.

They do enough good things to stay competitive in games and even downright control them. But they have to figure out a way to clean up the brain farts. Both of Buffalo's goals last night were straight up gifts. And that's been a common theme for them as much as the lack of scoring has been.

Get Kovy back, hope our underachievers start delivering and see what happens. If any team in this league is due for a hot streak, it's certainly them.

They need to win a game without Kovy first to gain the kind of confidence back they will need to put together a pretty long winning streak. Kovy practicing today is great news, but he can't come back as the savior, he has to come back as the final piece that puts the team into another level.

Someone in the locker room has to scream enough, and they need to beat Boston tomorrow. Forget out of town results, forget points. For the team's psyche they need to beat a team they can't seem to beat WITHOUT Kovy if there is any hope to be had at this point. Kovy can't save a team that doesn't have confidence it can't score. Beat Boston maybe they start to loosen up.

 

[billingtons ghost]

That site is a an absolute joke. You should be able to eyeball that thing and quickly realize how badly mathematically flawed it is.

pray tell, Mr Math.

In actuality, it isn't calculating odds - it is running simulations of all of the possible outcomes and just tabulating the results - so, irrespective of whether the percentages are spot on, it is actually calculating where the Devils end up in every scenario with all possible outcomes.

They can do fancy things like that with computers now.

 

[billingtons ghost]

pray tell, Mr Math.

In actuality, it isn't calculating odds - it is running simulations of all of the possible outcomes and just tabulating the results - so, irrespective of whether the percentages are spot on, it is actually calculating where the Devils end up in every scenario with all possible outcomes.

They can do fancy things like that with computers now.

And actually, what I should say is - this is the page to look at:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/NewJersey.html

Not the main page I posted. This has the possible outcomes and where we can end up.

 

[DevilChuk*]

And actually, what I should say is - this is the page to look at:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/NewJersey.html

Not the main page I posted. This has the possible outcomes and where we can end up.

I think that site loses its value as the season comes to a close. When there are so little games left, it becomes "worthwhile" to look at each team in its own right.

Besides, that's still completely different from this thread. I'm not tracking the odds of the Devils finishing in any spot in the conference, I'm tracking the mathematical possibilities of them finishing ahead or behind each team (as well as the tiebreaker scenario). You can't find this information on that site.

It's still mathematically flawed in that it really doesn't do a good job of simulating. A coin flip and goal differential doesn't accurately indicate who will win any given game..

 

[NC107*]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

This site does it all...

No it doesn't

 

[billingtons ghost]

I think that site loses its value as the season comes to a close. When there are so little games left, it becomes "worthwhile" to look at each team in its own right.

Besides, that's still completely different from this thread. I'm not tracking the odds of the Devils finishing in any spot in the conference, I'm tracking the mathematical possibilities of them finishing ahead or behind each team (as well as the tiebreaker scenario). You can't find this information on that site.

It's still mathematically flawed in that it really doesn't do a good job of simulating. A coin flip and goal differential doesn't accurately indicate who will win any given game..

yeah, of course - when you find a site that factors in Toronto late-year fade and Philly goaltending issues, let me know. For the time being, all I care is that they beat the Rangers twice. That's the 8th spot that I want to own at their expense.

What I get from the site is that if we put up 52+ points we have a good shot. And, I think it is pretty good at figuring out who I want to root for on the out of town scoreboard.

 

[DevilChuk*]

yeah, of course - when you find a site that factors in Toronto late-year fade and Philly goaltending issues, let me know. For the time being, all I care is that they beat the Rangers twice. That's the 8th spot that I want to own at their expense.

What I get from the site is that if we put up 52+ points we have a good shot. And, I think it is pretty good at figuring out who I want to root for on the out of town scoreboard.

I like how you conveniently ignore the first two paragraphs.

Anyways, almost all updated for tonight and then I will post tomorrow's scenarios. One for sure: Boston guarantees they finish ahead of us with a win against us tomorrow.

 

[Kensu]

if we lose tomorrow and the Rangers win tomorrow. We have to win 3 games or win 2 games + go to Overtime to get the extra point to break the tiebreaker.

+ hope for the Islanders, Rangers, Ottawa to go on a 2-3 game losing streak.

I think I counted it right, but doesn't look good.

 

[DevilChuk*]

All updated. Tomorrow's scenarios are also posted (there are 3, two of which deal only with ROW tiebreakers).


Not a great night for us but could have been worse, at least OTT lost.

Go Leafs (and Devils)!

 

[Emperoreddy]

Honestly I think we have to forget about the Isles, I think they won't fade and they will get in, and might even sneak all the way up to the 6 seed at this point. Ottawa is finally slipping, and the Rags are still mediocre, plus we have games left against both those teams. While Ottawa seems more primed for a long losing streak, our bulls eye should rest firmly on the Rags.

We have a chance to get 4 points and deny them 4 at the same time. If we can get some sort of winning streak going, win a good chunk of the remaining 9, get points in the ones we don't, those two games should decide it. We really need to get the two points from Ottawa too though.

 

[NJDevs26]

Tomorrow can't be the nuclear scenario or they wind up four points plus tiebreaker behind multiple teams with 8 games left. Really five points out of a playoff spot.

It's now or never tomorrow. Not that surving tomorrow guarantees anything, but it's better than the alternative.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Tomorrow can't be the nuclear scenario or they wind up four points plus tiebreaker behind multiple teams with 8 games left. Really five points out of a playoff spot.

It's now or never tomorrow. Not that surving tomorrow guarantees anything, but it's better than the alternative.

The Rags don't HAVE to lose tomorrow, I know some people might go nuts if they win, no matter what the outcome to our game is, but it isn't needed (though still would help)

The biggest thing we can do to improve our odds is to win tomorrow. That is it, only game and outcome that REALLY matters. We really need to get two points, a W so they can at least start attempting to turn this ship around. Statement win against the Broons can be the type of win we need to get the streak we need to get in.

Actually looking over the standings I am still shocked how it still isn't THAT bad for us, when it really should be far worse considering we haven't won a game in like forever. Win tomorrow we are two points out of 6th. Just weird.

A lose plus a Rags win though would be absolutely horrific to our cause. We need to solve Boston finally, and we need to do it tomorrow.

 

[DevilChuk*]

The Rags don't HAVE to lose tomorrow, I know some people might go nuts if they win, no matter what the outcome to our game is, but it isn't needed (though still would help)

The biggest thing we can do to improve our odds is to win tomorrow. That is it, only game and outcome that REALLY matters. We really need to get two points, a W so they can at least start attempting to turn this ship around. Statement win against the Broons can be the type of win we need to get the streak we need to get in.

Actually looking over the standings I am still shocked how it still isn't THAT bad for us, when it really should be far worse considering we haven't won a game in like forever. Win tomorrow we are two points out of 6th. Just weird.

A lose plus a Rags win though would be absolutely horrific to our cause. We need to solve Boston finally, and we need to do it tomorrow.

We need a split at worst tomorrow to stay realistic (and to keep control of our own destiny). As in, Devils win + Rangers win or Devils loss + Rangers loss. Us winning and them losing would be amazing.. but us losing and them winning would be pretty terrible.

 

[DevilChuk*]

Was looking ahead and Ottawa's schedule is pretty tough.

@Philly
@NJD
@Boston
Carolina
Washington
Toronto
Pittsburgh
@Washington
Philly

Compared to our schedule:
Boston
Ottawa
@Toronto
@Philly
Florida
@NYR
Montreal
Pittsburgh
@NYR

Our schedule is tougher but a win Friday night pulls Ottawa well within reach.

 

[Saugus]

It just comes down to getting wins. If we do our job and win a respectable number of games, we won't really need the help. But it would be nice for the rest of the conference to break our way too.

 

[DEVILS ALL THE WAY*]

We're 3 pts away from getting in as the #8 seed with 9 games left to play, since we have the least number of regulation wins out of the teams fighting to get in. It'll be real tough to come back from that massive slide we've been witnessing over the past month+.

 

[mcbain942*]

ok and I get locked for making the same thread with more emphasis on the 4 teams in the bottom hunt, what we really care about here

 

[Richer's Ghost]

ok and I get locked for making the same thread with more emphasis on the 4 teams in the bottom hunt, what we really care about here

I didn't lock it but your thread was just a prediction on what the remaining games might look like, this thread actually just updates the first post with actual numbers and scenarios eliminated. Nobody else understood what your thread was if you want to go look at it again.

 

[DevilChuk*]

I didn't lock it but your thread was just a prediction on what the remaining games might look like, this thread actually just updates the first post with actual numbers and scenarios eliminated. Nobody else understood what your thread was if you want to go look at it again.

Yea, I had a hard time understanding what was going on. If you want to do predictions based on the remaining schedule, go for it here if you want.. I'll keep updating the OP as is. In a few games, I'll edit the second post to include the remaining schedules of the teams that are still within distance (probably NYR and OTT).

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Just remember...

 

[DevilChuk*]

FYI going to the game tonight so this won't be updated until I get home.

Will update everything including tomorrow's scenarios (5 games in the East so probably will be some) and probably will throw in the remaining schedules of the teams around us.

EDIT: put up remaining schedules

 

[apice3*]

ok and I get locked for making the same thread with more emphasis on the 4 teams in the bottom hunt, what we really care about here

Your thread was a great idea, but it was impossible to understand what you were trying to say.

DC has made these threads in the past and has done a good job with them. Don't really see the big deal.

 

[Emperoreddy]

It just comes down to getting wins. If we do our job and win a respectable number of games, we won't really need the help. But it would be nice for the rest of the conference to break our way too.

Exactly that. The fact we have two against the Rags keeps things in our hand. We win games, we get in. We keep sliding we don't. End of story.

Win tonight is imperative to the team's mental state. They need to remember they can win, know for a fact they can beat a top team, and do it all without Kovy.

 

[DevilChuk*]

I think tonight may end up being the proverbial nail in the coffin.

Thread being updated as we speak.

EDIT: all done. desperately need an Ottawa and NYI loss tomorrow or we're in even bigger trouble than we already are (oh yea, we also need to.. start winning ourselves)