Value of: Nikita Zadorov

[Petes2424]

Every single D man for every cup championship team since the 1996 Avalanche have had no defensemen who were a liability in their own end. I don't deny you need puck movers, but if you want to win those guys had better defend. You don't win with guys like Gostisbehere, Bouchard, MAB ect playing for you. Ozolinsh was the last guy like that who won a cup in 1996 and he had guys like Foote, Klemm, Duchene ect to insulate him.

To be fair, there’s been many Cup winning dmen who were somewhat of a liability in their own end, but they had proper protection. Duchesne, Tverdovsky, Boyle, etc. I think you’re more talking about the wide open guys, since you mentioned Ozolinsh. Sure. I’d never argue that. Problem is, there’s 31 other teams every year who need to transport the puck…

I’d never argue that players like Ghost don’t have to be protected, but the game has changed. Teams need dmen who can transport.

Usually great teams, who win playoff rounds have two dmen who carry a pairing 20+ minutes a night. 9 times out of 10 they can also transport the puck. It’s why they’re so good.

If you don’t have two though, you need others who can do it. Most teams will have 2-3 but sometimes 1 or 2 are role players. If someone needs protection, like Byrum did two years ago, you protect them. Even if they can carry play.

Steve Duchesne was literally atrocious in his own end most of his career, but he made plays for that 2002 team in Detroit. He had to be protected every night though.

Nobody would argue these guys don’t have to be protected. Like Byrum, or even guys who can carry a pairing like Rielly, need some protection. Quinn needs some protection.

The Vegas guys don’t, and that’s why they won a Cup, but there’s been several who need it sometimes. Letang is another one who needed some protection during their Cup runs.

So like I said, I value a guy like Zadorov more than I would Ghost because there’s few players like him anymore. The Leafs need both types right now, because it doesn’t look like they’re going to find another player who can carry a pair for 20+ minutes a night.

 

[Double Dion]

To be fair, there’s been many Cup winning dmen who were somewhat of a liability in their own end, but they had proper protection. Duchesne, Tverdovsky, Boyle, etc. I think you’re more talking about the wide open guys, since you mentioned Ozolinsh. Sure. I’d never argue that. Problem is, there’s 31 other teams every year who need to transport the puck…

I’d never argue that players like Ghost don’t have to be protected, but the game has changed. Teams need dmen who can transport.

Usually great teams, who win playoff rounds have two dmen who carry a pairing 20+ minutes a night. 9 times out of 10 they can also transport the puck. It’s why they’re so good.

If you don’t have two though, you need others who can do it. Most teams will have 2-3 but sometimes 1 or 2 are role players. If someone needs protection, like Byrum did two years ago, you protect them. Even if they can carry play.

Steve Duchesne was literally atrocious in his own end most of his career, but he made plays for that 2002 team in Detroit. He had to be protected every night though.

Nobody would argue these guys don’t have to be protected. Like Byrum, or even guys who can carry a pairing like Rielly, need some protection. Quinn needs some protection.

The Vegas guys don’t, and that’s why they won a Cup, but there’s been several who need it sometimes. Letang is another one who needed some protection during their Cup runs.

So like I said, I value a guy like Zadorov more than I would Ghost because there’s few players like him anymore. The Leafs need both types right now, because it doesn’t look like they’re going to find another players who can carry a pair for 20+ minutes a night.

Dan Boyle? He was a really good defender. Just small. Duchesne was a good defender too. Tverdovsky didn't play much with the Devils the year they won. He was their #7 or 8 defenseman.

 

[biturbo19]

I don't think it's about how many hits, but the hits themselves!

We need NextGen Stats to come through for us with like, a running tally of "most Kilonewtons of force applied to opponents" over the course of a season.

 

[Petes2424]

Dan Boyle? He was a really good defender. Just small. Duchesne was a good defender too. Tverdovsky didn't play much with the Devils the year they won. He was their #7 or 8 defenseman.

Boyle was pushed around a lot in his own end, and needed protection until he grew into his game, and learned to move the puck more from the circles down… but that really didn’t happen until he was in San Jose.

Steve Duchesne was one of the worst decision makers in the 90s. Fantastic in the other two zones though. To be fair, he wasn’t as bad in Detroit as he had been everywhere else, but there’s a reason, he played for 6-7 teams in his career. You don’t trade dmen that talented, that many times, unless they had issues. He’d be in the HOF if he ever played D.

I won’t mention any names, but funny story, Dick Todd, Terry Bovair and Jeff Twohey used to show tapes of “how not to play D” starring Steve Duchesne. The joke used to be, they must’ve had too many forwards in Drummondville, so they put him on D. He really was that bad…. But he was just as great in the O-zone, and moving the puck up the ice. As good as it gets.

 

[thusk]

Every single D man for every cup championship team since the 1996 Avalanche have had no defensemen who were a liability in their own end. I don't deny you need puck movers, but if you want to win those guys had better defend. You don't win with guys like Gostisbehere, Bouchard, MAB ect playing for you. Ozolinsh was the last guy like that who won a cup in 1996 and he had guys like Foote, Klemm, Duchene ect to insulate him.

shattenkirk, Schultz x2

you need a balanced d to have succes...

a defensive D with lack of puck mover. its will be hard to keep the puck out of your zone because you will be unable to move it out of your own zone

if youre having a offensive d with a lot of puck mover but lack of shutdown D...it will be hard to get the puck back on your stick...

you need both and when youre able to have D able to make both, your in business

 

[Bond]

3rd round pick is his value. bottom pairing D man. Straight Up.

Tre will pay more than that

 

[Schemp]

Tre will pay more than that

And GMBA can easily outbid the Leafs!

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

3rd round pick is his value. bottom pairing D man. Straight Up.

If that was the cost it would be done.

 

[Volica]

Every single D man for every cup championship team since the 1996 Avalanche have had no defensemen who were a liability in their own end. I don't deny you need puck movers, but if you want to win those guys had better defend. You don't win with guys like Gostisbehere, Bouchard, MAB ect playing for you. Ozolinsh was the last guy like that who won a cup in 1996 and he had guys like Foote, Klemm, Duchene ect to insulate him.

Reminder that one of the Chicago cups they essentially just played with 4 defenders because Kimmo Timonen was cooked, and their 6/7/8 were Kyle Cumiskey (WHO?!), Michal Rozsival (who was a solid defender in his own right) and David Rundblad.

 

[Johnsie19]

Your overthinking something very simple.
On paper one for.one they are very very similar. One could say McCabe did have a hair more value last year but this year it's the opposite. McCabe brought back 2x 2nds which equals a low first. The ability to see how Z fits in , is a bonus yoir are not seeing . He would bring back a low first with 30 to 50 retention.

Not overthinking at all. Simply looking at the value and I agree they are comparable players. The McCabe package returned a 1st and 2nd not 2 2nds.

Retaining for 2+ yrs at a low cap hit is extremely valuable for competitive teams. You can't do that with Zadorov because hes about to be a UFA. Plus there were other significant pieces in the trade.

Is there a chance a team with a lot of assets pays a 1st? sure. But his value should be more like a 2nd + b prospect.

 

[biturbo19]

Reminder that one of the Chicago cups they essentially just played with 4 defenders because Kimmo Timonen was cooked, and their 6/7/8 were Kyle Cumiskey (WHO?!), Michal Rozsival (who was a solid defender in his own right) and David Rundblad.

I totally forgot David Rundblad existed. Man, he was gonna be so good. Right up until...he wasn't. At all.

 

[Jerkbait]

Not overthinking at all. Simply looking at the value and I agree they are comparable players. The McCabe package returned a 1st and 2nd not 2 2nds.

Retaining for 2+ yrs at a low cap hit is extremely valuable for competitive teams. You can't do that with Zadorov because hes about to be a UFA. Plus there were other significant pieces in the trade.

Is there a chance a team with a lot of assets pays a 1st? sure. But his value should be more like a 2nd + b prospect.

Once again incorrect. We know of several teams that have or will make an offer, including Toronto. It's an expensive rental with a contract pending. This is obvious , the team that os going to aquire him will have a deal ready. Because of this , the low risk of him walking is minimal. He will get a first or the equivalent amd it's not really even arguable

 

[Johnsie19]

Once again incorrect. We know of several teams that have or will make an offer, including Toronto. It's an expensive rental with a contract pending. This is obvious , the team that os going to aquire him will have a deal ready. Because of this , the low risk of him walking is minimal. He will get a first or the equivalent amd it's not really even arguable

Give me a few comparables where a defenseman returned a 1st as a rental.

And then take it a step further a few examples of a 5th defenseman who returned a 1st as a rental.

That would be my argument. Teams are not moving 1st round picks quite as much in recent yrs and rarely for a rental. Let alone a depth defenseman rental.

 

[34]

If that was the cost it would be done.

I still don’t do it. He is garbage.

 

[Lunatik]

Give me a few comparables where a defenseman returned a 1st as a rental.

And then take it a step further a few examples of a 5th defenseman who returned a 1st as a rental.

That would be my argument. Teams are not moving 1st round picks quite as much in recent yrs and rarely for a rental. Let alone a depth defenseman rental.

They've been listed time over time but you just ignore them because it doesn't fit your bullshit narrative

 

[Johnsie19]

They've been listed time over time but you just ignore them because it doesn't fit your bullshit narrative

I'm legit interested.

We've gone over how McCabe isn't a 1st comparable because of the term+retention+multiple other players in the deal.

Are there any others?

It feels like you are driving a narrative. I'm legit asking why you think he's worth a 1st because i can't find hardly any dmen rentals who went for a 1st. Of the 3-4 they were all at least top 1-3 dmen. No no. 5s.

But again if you have them just list a few for me please.

 

[Jerkbait]

Give me a few comparables where a defenseman returned a 1st as a rental.

And then take it a step further a few examples of a 5th defenseman who returned a 1st as a rental.

That would be my argument. Teams are not moving 1st round picks quite as much in recent yrs and rarely for a rental. Let alone a depth defenseman rental.

What makes you think he is rental ?? There would be an extension already in place..thats the difference

 

[Johnsie19]

What makes you think he is rental ?? There would be an extension already in place..thats the difference

He is a UFA this summer so that would be why I'd assume he is a rental. There is a chance he might sign an extension but I don't think that changes his value. And I'll explain why. Any extension that he signs will be at market value as a UFA. At which point he then has to live up to that contract. Ie Lets say he signs 5 x 6m well he has to live up that contract now.

Two great examples were JT MIller and Bo Horvat. With Miller leading up to his new deal it was said his value was less because he was a rental. And then when he signed it was said his value was less because he is signed so long. Same with Horvat. Do you think the Islanders could get the same value out of Horvat now? Unlikely. His trade value likely went down with signing a contract. The extra value would come from a medium length deal at a low cap hit.

But anyway all that is sort of beside the point.

What were the comparables you were talking about that would suggest Zadorov might return a 1st? Ill be generous and even say Zadorov could be a 4th even though he has played as a 5th dman his whole career nearly. So which 4/5 dmen have returned 1st round picks. UFA or not?

Im genuinely am interested if you have some. Also not saying a 1st isn't possible. Just that it's unlikely based on the comparables i can find.

 

[DFF]

In the right situation, zadorov can be valuable.

In other situations, he can be trash

 

[Lunatik]

I'm legit interested.

We've gone over how McCabe isn't a 1st comparable because of the term+retention+multiple other players in the deal.

Are there any others?

It feels like you are driving a narrative. I'm legit asking why you think he's worth a 1st because i can't find hardly any dmen rentals who went for a 1st. Of the 3-4 they were all at least top 1-3 dmen. No no. 5s.

But again if you have them just list a few for me please.

Off the top of my head, both Chiarot and Savard returned a 1st+ at the deadline.

Also I'm not arguing Zadorov is worth a 1st. I've stated time and time a again I think his "worth" in a vacuum is a 2nd + a 'B' prospect... but also point out that trades aren't in a vacuum and at the deadline GMs often go stupid and overpay out of desperation.

 

[Johnsie19]

Off the top of my head, both Chiarot and Savard returned a 1st+ at the deadline.

Also I'm not arguing Zadorov is worth a 1st. I've stated time and time a again I think his "worth" in a vacuum is a 2nd + a 'B' prospect... but also point out that trades aren't in a vacuum and at the deadline GMs often go stupid and overpay out of desperation.

Those are probably the best two comparables that I've seen as well.

Heres why I don't think they're that close

Chiarot was playing 23+ mins a night and was Montreal's best dman. He was in the midst of a 3-4 yr period where he played those type of mins as a no.1 or no. 2 option for his team. Even then his underlying numbers were bad and people ridiculed the trade and rightly so.

Savard is the better comparison and even he was a no. 3 dman. He had good underlying numbers and was used to playing match up roles.

Perhaps we are saying the same thing though. I am saying there is a low chance he returns a first. And it'd prob have to include a cap dump going back. Overwhelming likely that it's a 2nd or thereabouts. In my opinion.

And I garner that from all the comparables I can find. There are far more apt comparables in my mind that didn't returns 1st round picks. Guys like Dillon, Manson. Even guys like Graves, Toews, Marino who I'd say are significantly better than Zadorov didn't get a 1st.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Somehow Zadorov is going to get more than Tanev and I won't understand why.

Big Z checks off all the boxes for GMs to overpay for, especially with so many questionable defenses around the league.

A mildly serviceable RHD has the value of true number 1 LHD so I doubt that

 

[Ciao]

what kind of value would you be looking at?
Would love to get him on the Leafs somehow

Seriously?

This is a defenceman who asked for a trade because he didn't want to play in Toronto, and you would love to get him back in Toronto?

How does that make sense?

 

[Bond]

Seriously?

This is a defenceman who asked for a trade because he didn't want to play in Toronto, and you would love to get him back in Toronto?

How does that make sense?

Lol who are you talking about

 

[Ciao]

Lol who are you talking about

Yeah, wrong player.

I read Nikita Zaitsev.