Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

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Felidae

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Sep 30, 2016
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Kucherov just tied Mackinnon in points , quite a bit of time left in the 3rd period.

find it hilarious Kucherov had next to no votes compared to Mackinnon and McDavid when the latest "who will win the art Ross" was created.

 
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Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
29,661
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Tied Mackinnon again with 8 points in the last 2 games, still time left in this one to take the lead.
 

Steerpike

We are never give up
Feb 15, 2014
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Colorado
Kucherov just tied Mackinnon in points , quite a bit of time left in the 3rd period.

find it hilarious Kucherov had next to no votes compared to Mackinnon and McDavid when the latest "who will win the art Ross" was created.


A poll isn't a proxy for probability.
 

Breakfast of Champs

Registered User
Apr 15, 2007
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damn gotta give it to Kuch he pounces every time the net is empty. That's 3 games in an row with an ENG. Takes the lead with a game in hand as well
 
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Hockey Outsider

Registered User
Jan 16, 2005
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My forecasting model gives the following probabilities of each player winning the Art Ross, as of today:
  • MacKinnon: 54%
  • McDavid: 37%
  • Kucherov: 17%
  • Pastrnak: <1%
MacKinnon, McDavid and Kucherov are all virtually certain to reach 120 points (barring injury). Pastrnak has about a 6% chance.

Probability of reaching 130 points:
  • MacKinnon: 91%
  • McDavid: 80%
  • Kucherov: 64%
  • Pastrnak: <1%
Probability of reaching 140 points:
  • MacKinnon: 26%
  • McDavid: 18%
  • Kucherov: 6%
  • Pastrnak: <1%
MacKinnon and McDavid both have about a 1% chance of reaching 150 points.
An update after tonight's games:
  • Kucherov: 55% (previously: 17%)
  • MacKinnon: 32% (previously: 54%)
  • McDavid: 22% (previously: 37%)
  • Pastrnak: <1% (no change)
A lot has changed since I last posted ten days ago. Kucherov is now the favourite for the Art Ross trophy. He's scored 11 points in the past three games. MacKinnon and McDavid have both played well objectively, but have lost ground relative to the Bolt.

Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid are all virtually certain to reach 120 points (barring injury). Pastrnak has about a 7% chance (previously: 6%).

Probability of reaching 130 points:
  • Kucherov: 98% (previously: 64%)
  • MacKinnon: 93% (previously: 91%)
  • McDavid: 82% (previously: 80%)
  • Pastrnak: <1% (no change)
Probability of reaching 140 points:
  • Kucherov: 38% (previously: 6%)
  • MacKinnon: 22% (previously: 26%)
  • McDavid: 16% (previously: 18%)
  • Pastrnak: <1% (no change)
Kucherov has about a 1% chance of reaching 150 points (previously: MacKinnon and McDavid each had about a 1% chance).
 

Breakfast of Champs

Registered User
Apr 15, 2007
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They play the Sharks next, wouldn't be surprised if Kuch gets another 4-5 points easy in that game alone.
Sharks and ducks in the next 3 games - the two teams allowing the most goals.

Avs get Columbus, but they have 13 games remaining vs 14. One thing to note is that 9 of the last 13 avs games are at home, and MacKinnon has had much better stats at home this season.

However, its an uphill battle for MacKinnon at this point for the AR
 
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TheDawnOfANewTage

Dahlin, it’ll all be fine
Dec 17, 2018
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An update after tonight's games:
  • Kucherov: 55% (previously: 17%)
  • MacKinnon: 32% (previously: 54%)
  • McDavid: 22% (previously: 37%)
  • Pastrnak: <1% (no change)
A lot has changed since I last posted ten days ago. Kucherov is now the favourite for the Art Ross trophy. He's scored 11 points in the past three games. MacKinnon and McDavid have both played well objectively, but have lost ground relative to the Bolt.

Kucherov, MacKinnon and McDavid are all virtually certain to reach 120 points (barring injury). Pastrnak has about a 7% chance (previously: 6%).

Probability of reaching 130 points:
  • Kucherov: 98% (previously: 64%)
  • MacKinnon: 93% (previously: 91%)
  • McDavid: 82% (previously: 80%)
  • Pastrnak: <1% (no change)
Probability of reaching 140 points:
  • Kucherov: 38% (previously: 6%)
  • MacKinnon: 22% (previously: 26%)
  • McDavid: 16% (previously: 18%)
  • Pastrnak: <1% (no change)
Kucherov has about a 1% chance of reaching 150 points (previously: MacKinnon and McDavid each had about a 1% chance).

His lead over teammates is nuts. It’s like the opposite of the panthers, where team talent boosts stats across the board.

Absolute prick, of course, but he’s even smooth in his dirtiness. Dude just thinks the game at a very high level and has the hands to match.
 

PizzaAndPucks

New Jersey Angels diehard
Nov 29, 2018
2,956
4,708
This changed as the season went along. MacKinnon deserves it a bit more. Plays center and actually plays some defense too. The guy ison the scoresheet pretty much every game. He's playing at an insane pace right now too. MacKinnon has to edge this out if it holds up for the rest of the season.
 

Breakfast of Champs

Registered User
Apr 15, 2007
3,055
3,163
This changed as the season went along. MacKinnon deserves it a bit more. Plays center and actually plays some defense too. The guy ison the scoresheet pretty much every game. He's playing at an insane pace right now too. MacKinnon has to edge this out if it holds up for the rest of the season.
this is an AR thread not hart discussion
 
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