Nikita Kucherov is the clear favorite for the Art Ross Trophy

[Cup or Bust]

Only one team scored 350-400 goals every season in the 80s and that was the Edmonton Oilers (with a peak of 446 in '84 -- nearly 100 more than the next best team).

Now why was that?

(hint: The Oilers suddenly and inexplicably stopped scoring that much in 1988. They were replaced by the new scoring juggernaut: LA Kings)

Gretzky is statistically the most dominant player ever but that is not my point. We have to at least make a fair comparison.
A number teams scored 350+ goals during the 80's but the Oilers were the best team and did it the most. They also were able to win a Cup without Gretzky. Of course Gretzky was a huge reason for the Oilers being able to do what they did but McDavid is also the reason the Oilers scored 325 goals last season and he had a large separation over the rest of the league and that is no coincidence. The only reason that gap in the 80's was achieved was due to playing on teams capable of scoring so many goals in a higher scoring era. If Gretzky played today his team would never score 400 goals in a season so that level of separation would never be achieved which means using point separation is not fair to compare players from today to the 80's.
Based on the offensive levels achieved today and the salary cap which limits the offensive potential a team can even have, something the 80's never had to worry about, McDavid over his career has created a large gap between himself and the rest of the current league. No one else has been able to achieve what he has statistically. The margins are smaller and still he has been dominant in his statistical accomplishments compared to the rest of the league season after season. I am not saying it is on par with Gretzky just saying that making a direct comparison without using context is not fair or accurate.
McDavid is having a decade of dominance so far over his peers that is sizable and likely one of, if not the best outside of Gretzky in the 80's.

 

[PaulD]

Kucherov definitely leading .

Matthews
McDavid
Eichel
Hughes (Canucks)
Dempko

 

[WalterLundy]

McDavid 2023-24
First 5 games into injury vs Winnipeg:
5 GP: 2 G, 6 A, 8 PTS

Playing injured:
9 GP: 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS (worst stretch of career)

Return from injury (takes several weeks to recover but he returned in 1):
11 GP: 7 G, 20 A, 27 PTS

Overall Healthy play this year:
16 GP: 9 G, 26 A, 35 PTS (2.19 PPG)


Oilers have played 27 games so far. If he scored at his rolling 5 year average for 2018-19-2022-23 (1.65 PPG) and specific G/A/P breakdown from that 5 year average for the 9 games he played injured and 2 he missed completely he’d have 18 points in those 11 missing games. This is a pretty conservative estimate. If we use his last 3 year average (1.75 PPG) he’d have 19 in those 11 games.


His totals for the year with the 5 year average for missed/hurt games:
27 GP: 16 G, 37 A, 53 PTS
82 game pace: 49 G, 112 A, 161 PTS


His totals for the year with the 3 year average for missed/hurt games:
27 GP: 16 G, 38 A, 54 PTS
82 game pace: 49 G, 115 A, 164 PTS

He is actually playing just as well as last year without the injury and perhaps even better. I can easily see McDavid finishing with 130-140 this year and I think most fans can see that. I think that should be enough as no other player has exceeded 130-140 since the 80s-90s.


All this to say that Kucherov even in 3 more games would be close enough even in a full health scenario with 50 points. You must give him credit as he is having an amazing start to the season. If Kucherov wins with 130-140 then you really have to tip your cap. That would be a special peak season.

 

[RickyLafleur]

McDavid 2023-24
First 5 games into injury vs Winnipeg:
5 GP: 2 G, 6 A, 8 PTS

Playing injured:
9 GP: 2 G, 3 A, 5 PTS (worst stretch of career)

Return from injury (takes 3-4 weeks to recover but he returned in 1):
11 GP: 7 G, 20 A, 27 PTS

Overall Healthy play this year:
16 GP: 9 G, 26 A, 35 PTS (2.19 PPG)


Oilers have played 27 games so far. If he scored at his rolling 5 year average for 2018-19-2022-23 (1.65 PPG) and specific G/A/P breakdown from that 5 year average for the 9 games he played injured and 2 he missed completely he’d have 18 points in those 11 missing games. This is a pretty conservative estimate. If we use his last 3 year average he’d have 19 in those 11 games.


His totals for the year with the 5 year average for missed games:
27 GP: 16 G, 37 A, 53 PTS
82 game pace: 49 G, 112 A, 161 PTS


His totals for the year with the 3 year average for missed games:
27 GP: 16 G, 38 A, 54 PTS
82 game pace: 49 G, 115 A, 164 PTS

He is actually playing just as well as last year without the injury and perhaps even better. I can easily see McDavid finishing with 130-140 this year and I think most fans can see that.


All this to say that Kucherov even in 3 more games would be close enough even in a full health scenario with 50 points. You must give him credit as he is having an amazing start to the season.

The thing is, your stats at the end of the year count the same and include games that you were healthy, and injured in. Mcdavid could get hurt again, or put up 150+ again. Most players are playing through injuries throughout the year, it would be nice to see a "fully healthy" mcdavid and kuch but its not the same as nhl 24.

 

[WalterLundy]

The thing is, your stats at the end of the year count the same and include games that you were healthy, and injured in. Mcdavid could get hurt again, or put up 150+ again. Most players are playing through injuries throughout the year, it would be nice to see a "fully healthy" mcdavid and kuch but its not the same as nhl 24.

That’s true and honestly pacing out 20 some games is ridiculous on its face. My only point was that McDavid has been averaging 135 per 82 games for 5 years entering this season and 144 per 82 for 3 years entering this one. He is the only person to even approach this level so I figured that was a big enough sample size to use for missed game predictions/future paces. It was also to give credit to Kucherov as even a full health McDavid this year would have a worthy competitor for the Ross even if he were pacing to win comfortably. You are correct though I agree. Hopefully next year they both are healthy for the full year. Last year it was 153 to 113 for these two but Kucherov should crack 113 easily this year.

 

[34]

watching Kucherov split the Oilers D and score last night was awesome. Just goes to show how powerful and dominant this guy is. He deserves his cookies

 

[Soundwave]

Again: If there was so much worse talent in the 80s, then why wasn't everyone scoring as much as Gretzky? The 80s had a wealth of high-end offensive superstars, none of whom played with Edmonton: Hawerchuk, Larmer, Savard, Yzerman, Lemieux, Goulet, Sakic, Stastny, Bossy, Lafontaine, Gilmour, Dionne, Gartner, Taylor, Mullen, Federko -- the list goes on. All superstars. All put up 100+ point seasons.

But none of them put up 200+ points. No one except for Lemieux even came close. Yet Gretzky did it 4 times.

This needs to be explained. Nevermind the era, or the shoddy defense and crap goaltending. It's the same for everyone. In an era with inflated and gaudy offensive numbers, why was Gretzky doubling up his production over everyone else? Why wasn't anyone else throwing up the same stats as Gretzky? You'd think this would be easy given the shitty goaltending and crappy pond hockey defense. Yet no one could do it. Except one.

Why?

Because those other players aside from Mario weren't even close to Gretzky?

But like that just reflects poorly on the rest of the league. This is a league where USA hockey sucked ass compared to today let alone almost every other country, watch the Canada Cup 87 doc that's floating around Youtube, they didn't even take Team USA seriously, because hockey development back in the 70s/80s for USA was exceptionally poor compared to today.

It's like in basketball, Wilt Chamberlain put up ridiculous video game numbers in his era (50 points per game in a season, no one has averaged even 40 ppg since, 100 points in a single game, etc. etc.), because yes he was a terrific player. But why then in basketball is he not the automatic GOAT? Very few people consider him no.1. Because he played in an era where he was basically the only 7 foot player in the league (alongside maybe 1 other guy) and laughably bad athleticism in that era too. He could just get any shot he wanted.

That era of basketball wasn't prepared to play against a player that good. Just like the 80s, the defenses and goaltending were bad enough to begin with, you throw in a player ahead of the curve in offensive creativity like Gretzky and there is no real surprise there is a larger gap, because the rest of the league sucks by comparison.

Kucherov could quite conceivably score 200+ points if you put him on the loaded Oilers in place of Gretzky too in the 80s too. So would probably a half dozen other players aside from McDavid/Kuch in today's era. Because today's league is way, way better at the top end talent especially, but even median player is far better. Shit, the current league is a lot more talented top to bottom than it was even just 10 years ago.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Hard not seeing McDavid catch him around Game 50
Kuch has been reliably about 1.67 PPG for most of the season and is pacing to get 137 points.



McDavid seems like he's going to break 160.

 

[Incognito]

This will be an interesting race. McDavid is clearly the better player, and when they’re both fully healthy and playing at their peaks, Kucherov is obviously no match for him. That being said, McDavid’s slow start has thrown some questions into the mix. I still expect the cream will rise to the top at the end and McDavid will win, but it might be closer than it otherwise would have been.

 

[ViD]

This will be an interesting race. McDavid is clearly the better player, and when they’re both fully healthy and playing at their peaks, Kucherov is obviously no match for him. That being said, McDavid’s slow start has thrown some questions into the mix. I still expect the cream will rise to the top at the end and McDavid will win, but it might be closer than it otherwise would have been.

But Kucherov already out scored healthy McDavid in 18-19

 

[Shagrat59]

Pretty stiff competition. Only runaway winner I see this year is Bedard for the Calder.

 

[Cup or Bust]

Credit to Kucherov for having a great season so far but McDavid is only 10 points back. Still lots of season left. I think McDavid has 4 games in hand as well so it's definitely not over yet. Long way to go for everything yet. 3 weeks ago McDavid was like 100th in scoring so lots can change still, not just for him but for other players in the league also.

 

[Snowwy]

But Kucherov already out scored healthy McDavid in 18-19

Did you know that 18-19 was five years ago! News to some, I guess.

 

[ViD]

Did you know that 18-19 was five years ago! News to some, I guess.

And that makes it what ? Not a true statement ?

 

[Incognito]

But Kucherov already out scored healthy McDavid in 18-19

True, but the McDavid of 2018-2019 is not the same as he is today. He has reached a new level as a player since then.

 

[ColbyChaos]

But Kucherov already out scored healthy McDavid in 18-19

Only took him being on one of the best teams in the past 30 years to do it

 

[34]

But Kucherov already out scored healthy McDavid in 18-19

I hope Kuch does it again.

 

[Stammertime91]

Did you know that 18-19 was five years ago! News to some, I guess.

And?

 

[Slapshot Sultan]

Kuch is the best, McD has the skills, but the IQ lacks

 

[Chet Manley]

It's so weird how this guy gets left off in all the 'List top players' threads. I didn't see any weaknesses in his game the few times I've watched him.

 

[Beukeboom]

Gretzky is statistically the most dominant player ever but that is not my point. We have to at least make a fair comparison.
A number teams scored 350+ goals during the 80's but the Oilers were the best team and did it the most. They also were able to win a Cup without Gretzky. Of course Gretzky was a huge reason for the Oilers being able to do what they did but McDavid is also the reason the Oilers scored 325 goals last season and he had a large separation over the rest of the league and that is no coincidence. The only reason that gap in the 80's was achieved was due to playing on teams capable of scoring so many goals in a higher scoring era. If Gretzky played today his team would never score 400 goals in a season so that level of separation would never be achieved which means using point separation is not fair to compare players from today to the 80's.
Based on the offensive levels achieved today and the salary cap which limits the offensive potential a team can even have, something the 80's never had to worry about, McDavid over his career has created a large gap between himself and the rest of the current league. No one else has been able to achieve what he has statistically. The margins are smaller and still he has been dominant in his statistical accomplishments compared to the rest of the league season after season. I am not saying it is on par with Gretzky just saying that making a direct comparison without using context is not fair or accurate.
McDavid is having a decade of dominance so far over his peers that is sizable and likely one of, if not the best outside of Gretzky in the 80's.

Well as has been pointed out many times, when Wayne set a new NHL scoring record his second season with 164 points, the second best player in Edmonton was Kurri with 75. Third best was Messier with 63. So I wouldn't attribute Wayne's dominance to team goals, since he was reponsible for the high number pretty much on his own.

Having said that I do think McDavid's current dominance is like off-prime-prime Wayne and Mario. So we're talking the late 80's and early 90's (for Wayne, and Mario in most seasons other than 88-89 and 92-93). That in itself puts him in a unique top five of all times shimmer.

 

[ohcomeonref]

And that makes it what ? Not a true statement ?

Are you saying Kucherov is headed for another career-year, several years later, to beat McDavid?

 

[McRpro]

It's so weird how this guy gets left off in all the 'List top players' threads. I didn't see any weaknesses in his game the few times I've watched him.

He does? Which top players lists has he been left off of?

 

[Video Nasty]

It’s a little odd how people are acting like Kucherov is off to some crazy start compared to last year, when the reality is that he had 47 in his first 30 games compared to 50 in 30 games so far.

Next thing to watch for is comparing the 65 points in 41 first half games last season and finishing with 48 in his final 41.

That’s the beauty of the failed pace argument. Unless you’re McDavid, you’re probably not running through both halves at 1.6+ PPG each.

Will be interesting to watch unfold.

 

[ViD]

Are you saying Kucherov is headed for another career-year, several years later, to beat McDavid?

He’s on pace to do exactly that