Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

[417]

The debate of whether or not he's a #1C or capable of being a PPG C is tiresome to be honest.

Year after year, game after he carries this team on his back with little support.

He had 66pts last year and next closest had 38pts.

This year he's getting a bit more support and he’s trending to get a caree high. Players need help to put up points, not sure why that's news but here we are.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Can’t see the forest for the trees. No one expects him to be a gpg player. He’s on a bit of a heater for sure, but imo his production increase has been more than accounted for by CC’s lack of hot streak. If Cole got hot, Nick likely scores less goals, but has a higher point output. Hes carrying the line atm. When they’re all firing he won’t have to, but he’s likely to see an uptick in production when that happens imo.

I agree.

And no, I'm not expecting a goal per game. But again, look at what people said about his play in previous years... he has nobody to play with. Look at his play now, his linemates haven't been playing well and he's still killing it. Even when he doesn't score he's the best player on the ice. Over the 2nd half of the year (and especially after the AS Break) the guy has levelled up.

Now, you asked me before when do I change my mind on him... I've seen him go on tears before. Let's see if he can keep this up for the rest of the year. A goal per game is too high a bar but a point per game shouldn't be. Right now I don't know if it's another streak or if the switch has flipped. I'll want to see how he ends this year and how he starts next year. That's a big enough sample to see if he's levelled up.

 

[Deebs]

I feel like Bill Murray in groundhogs days. Everyday it's the same stuff in this thread lol

 

[417]

Suzuki finished last year playing with Ylonen and RHP last year.

What do people expect exactly?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Suzuki finished last year playing with Ylonen and RHP last year.

His play dropped off long before that.

What do people expect exactly?

More consistent play. That's it.

 

[Miller Time]

Not sure how you can say this. Every player is somewhat streaky but Suzuki is especially so.

"Every player is somewhat streaky"...

That's what I mean by lack of context. Relative to the context of pro hockey, Suzuki is not particularly "streaky". Even less so relative to U25 players. Makes the statement completely useless, if not outright false.

20-21
12 in 12
15 in 29
14 in 11

21-22
28 in 49
33 in 33 games

22-23
29 points in 26 games
37 in 56

23-24
22 points in 28 games
37 in 32 (including 20 in his last 13)



41, 41, 61, 66 points. Yeah it's been steady but it hasn't been a huge step forward... until now.

.58ppg
.73ppg
.74ppg
.8ppg
.98ppg

Steady progress. Especially when one factors in the roster and linemates context, even moreso the age/physical maturation context.

Not at all. I'm talking about his career as a whole. What he's doing now is well above anything he's done before. 11 goals in 11 games is insane and he's never done anything close to that.

Players get better early in their career over time... Woah!!!! Mind-blowing lol

The point you keep missing or avoiding is that it has been evident that this level of performance was easily within his reach.

To be surprised by this level of play suggests that earlier assessments were poor. Ive been telling you that for over a year... It was predictable based on his play and progress, as long as one didn't make poor assessments like crediting his strong play last year to his linemates, as you tried to.

Sure. But again, his slump last year precedes his linemates departure.

Zero players not named Suzuki hit 40points last year. Context. Matters.

And look at how he's playing now. His teammates haven't been great and it doesn't matter, he's killing it.

?
2024
CC - 21pts/24games
Slaf - 18pts/24games

I'd be surprised to see a better stretch by his linemates at any point in his career.

11 goals in 11 games is why this thread is packed and somebody decided to put a 'hail Suzuki' thread on the main boards. He's been awesome and it's warranted. But the idea that he's been this good all along is hilariously wrong.

Still stuck in the small sample size, I get it.

This site has a ton of people who don't get player development. Heck, the Slaf thread was full of piss poor assessments through the first few months of the season. As soon as he started putting up points, the winds changed...

Some people default to points to base their player assessments on. Makes for very shallow player assessments, and ultimately weak takes... especially when it comes to U25 athletes... One needs to have a grasp of athlete development to go beyond a stat sheet in assessing performance I suppose.

What's hilarious is when posters have bad takes that prove to be wrong and then go to great lengths to avoid simply owning it.

But, either way, welcome aboard the "Suzuki is a #1C" bus... Lots of room, get comfortable and start enjoying the ride. We've got some bigger peaks yet ahead!

Future is bright

Suzuki finished last year playing with Ylonen and RHP last year.

What do people expect exactly?

Indeed lol

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

"Every player is somewhat streaky"...

That's what I mean by lack of context. Relative to the context of pro hockey, Suzuki is not particularly "streaky". Even less so relative to U25 players. Makes the statement completely useless, if not outright false.

He consistently goes on point per game streaks followed by skids.

He's streaky.

.58ppg
.73ppg
.74ppg
.8ppg
.98ppg

Steady progress. Especially when one factors in the roster and linemates context, even moreso the age/physical maturation context.

The first four seasons are steady progress. The last one is a giant leap.

Players get better early in their career over time... Woah!!!! Mind-blowing lol

The point you keep missing or avoiding is that it has been evident that this level of performance was easily within his reach.

????

I always said it was within his reach. Said it at the start of this thread.

He's shown it. Just needed to be a little more consistent in his play.

To be surprised by this level of play suggests that earlier assessments were poor. Ive been telling you that for over a year... It was predictable based on his play and progress, as long as one didn't make poor assessments like equating his strong play last year to his linemates, as you tried to.

Not long ago he was pacing for 65 points.

Lately he's been pacing for 120 points. I don't remember you predicting that.

Zero players not named Suzuki hit 40points last year. Context. Matters.

Right. Which is why I pointed out that his cold streak started beforehand. But that's context that you seem to want to ignore.

?
2024
CC - 21pts/24games
Slaf - 18pts/24games

I'd be surprised to see a better stretch by his linemates at any point in his career.

Nick's got 11 in 11 and 17 in 11. His teammates haven't been great while he's stayed hot. His teammates have four points - collectively - in the past six games while in that span Nick has 5 goals and 7 points.

Again, that's what number ones are able to do.

Still stuck in the small sample size, I get it.

This site has a ton of people who don't get player development. Heck, the Slaf thread was full of piss poor assessments through the first few months of the season. As soon as he started putting up points, the winds changed...

Some people default to points to base their player assessments on. Makes for very shallow player assessments, and ultimately weak takes... especially when it comes to U25 athletes... One needs to have a grasp of athlete development to go beyond a stat sheet in assessing performance I suppose.

What's hilarious is when posters have bad takes that prove to be wrong and then go to great lengths to avoid simply owning it.

But, either way, welcome aboard the "Suzuki is a #1C" bus... Lots of room, get comfortable and start enjoying the ride. We've got some bigger peaks yet ahead!

Future is bright

As I said, he's been better than I thought he'd be. Maybe it's a hot streak or maybe it's the new Nick. But he's been so insanely hot lately, I don't think anyone could've (or did) predict that.

 

[417]

His play dropped off long before that.

It's incredibly difficult for most NHL players to remain consistent throughout an entire NHL campaign, even more so when you're the entire focal point of the opposition’s attention every single game all while being a young captain in the NHL of a team that isn't very good.

The fact he managed to even get 66pts last year, in the conditions he was in, should be even more of an indicator that he’a capable of being a PPG #1C.

More consistent play. That's it.

When the team can manage to be more consistently healthy and augment their talent level, that consistency will surface.

We’re seeing it right now, Caufield and Slafkovsky are probably the two most consistent linemates he's had since he's been in Montreal.

I totally get what you're saying but you seem to be ignoring the context around it all and I'm not sure how that can be brushed aside.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It's incredibly difficult for most NHL players to remain consistent throughout an entire NHL campaign, even more so when you're the entire focal point of the opposition’s attention every single game all while being a young captain in the NHL of a team that isn't very good.

The fact he managed to even get 66pts last year, in the conditions he was in, should be even more of an indicator that he’a capable of being a PPG #1C.

When the team can manage to be more consistently healthy and augment their talent level, that consistency will surface.

We’re seeing it right now, Caufield and Slafkovsky are probably the two most consistent linemates he's had since he's been in Montreal.

I totally get what you're saying but you seem to be ignoring the context around it all and I'm not sure how that can be brushed aside.

Take a look at those streaks I posted above. It's not like he hasn't shown the ability to go point per game in the past. It just comes in streaks.

By 24 you get a sense of what a player is. Some may improve a bit but usually they are what they are. But some will just - level up. And maybe that's what we're seeing now.

So is it a streak or is this just him or is it something in the middle? Don't know. But for the first half of the season he was exactly what I predicted he would be. A good but not great low end center. But he's been off the hook in the second half, esp since the break.

Every time I think this guy is going to 'arrive' a cold streak comes. So I'm going to wait on this one to see how it goes at least until the rest of the year.

As God is my witness man, the moment I say that I believe in him as a true number one he's going to fall off a cliff.

 

[417]

Take a look at those streaks I posted above. It's not like he hasn't shown the ability to go point per game in the past. It just comes in streaks.

By 24 you get a sense of what a player is. Some may improve a bit but usually they are what they are. But some will just - level up. And maybe that's what we're seeing now.

Yes, but there's context with those cold streaks.

Zack Hyman has been on of the NHL’s most consistent goal scorers the last 18 months…is that because he's achieved this whole new level of play?

Or is it because he spends the majority of his time playing with arguably the two best players in the game?

A healthy Caufield, a blossoming Slafkovsky and suddenly, Suzuki is headed for a career season. This is not a coincidence.

I promise you this doesn't happen had he been playing with Josh Anderson and Tanner Pearson the last 30 games.

So is it a streak or is this just him or is it something in the middle? Don't know. But for the first half of the season he was exactly what I predicted he would be. A good but not great low end center. But he's been off the hook in the second half, esp since the break.

Every time I think this guy is going to 'arrive' a cold streak comes. So I'm going to wait on this one to see how it goes at least until the rest of the year.

I'm going to remind you that playing down the middle in support of Nick Suzuki right now is Jake Evans, Alex Newhook (a winger) and Colin White.

If you don't think he could be even better with more NHL quality support behind him…I don't know what to say.

 

[FormerLurker]

First 351 games of their careers:

Nick Suzuki: 351 games, 99 goals, 169 assists, 268 points
Nathan MacKinnon: 351 games, 100 goals, 171 assists, 271 points

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yes, but there's context with those cold streaks.

Zack Hyman has been on of the NHL’s most consistent goal scorers the last 18 months…is that because he's achieved this whole new level of play?

Or is it because he spends the majority of his time playing with arguably the two best players in the game?

A healthy Caufield, a blossoming Slafkovsky and suddenly, Suzuki is headed for a career season. This is not a coincidence.

I promise you this doesn't happen had he been playing with Josh Anderson and Tanner Pearson the last 30 games.

We're talking about 80 points though, not 100. 80 points isn't as hard to get as it used to be. Suzuki's never cracked 70.

And it doesn't change the fact that he's shown he can do it without those guys. Hell, he's doing it right now. He SHOULD be able to 80 points without them leading the way. If those guys catch fire and start playing like they can, then 100 points should be the new target.

I'm going to remind you that playing down the middle in support of Nick Suzuki right now is Jake Evans, Alex Newhook (a winger) and Colin White.

And in a way that has really helped him.

He gets tons of ice time. The best wingers. The best power play minutes...

Would he get that if we had a Dylan Larkin or even a Kirby Dach? Him being the only go-to guy has allowed him to develop without any real competition.

If you don't think he could be even better with more NHL quality support behind him…I don't know what to say.

Sure he can. I'd never say otherwise. But again, I wasn't suggesting he should be a 100 point player. I said he should be at 80. I think that's a reasonable expectation.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

First 351 games of their careers:

Nick Suzuki: 351 games, 99 goals, 169 assists, 268 points
Nathan MacKinnon: 351 games, 100 goals, 171 assists, 271 points

Not really a great comparison. Mack was 18 coming into the league. Pavel Datsyuk would be better. Different era but... he broke out at 27.

 

[417]

There are 10 centers with more points than Suzuki this season: MacKinnon, McDavid, Miller, Matthews, Pettersson, Thomas, Point, Barzal and Crosby.

Every single one of those players is playing with at least 1 PPG winger except for Pettersson, Barzal, Crosby and Thomas.

What you're expecting Suzuki to do @Lafleurs Guy is an extremely high bar for him given the circumstances he's had to deal with.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Someone should makes a "better contract? Suzuki or Stutlze?" thread in the national hockey league subforum

 

[417]

We're talking about 80 points though, not 100. 80 points isn't as hard to get as it used to be. Suzuki's never cracked 70.

For some reason 80pts may as well be 150pts when you play in Montreal, the 66pts he put uo last year was the most from a Habs C since Plekanec played with Kovalev and Kostitsyn.

And it doesn't change the fact that he's shown he can do it without those guys. Hell, he's doing it right now. He SHOULD be able to 80 points without them leading the way. If those guys catch fire and start playing like they can, then 100 points should be the new target.

Whose them though? Because before the last 30 game stretch, it's been guys like Anderson, Toffoli, RHP, Hoffman, Ylonen, Lehkonen.

Not exactly a murderer’s row.

And in a way that has really helped him.

He gets tons of ice time. The best wingers. The best power play minutes...

Would he get that if we had a Dylan Larkin or even a Kirby Dach? Him being the only go-to guy has allowed him to develop without any real competition.

Yes it's helped him achieve what he already has…with more support, he could do much. Better don't you think?

Not facing the top pairs and shutdown Cs night after night and having to carry the mail at BOTH ends of the ice?

Sure he can. I'd never say otherwise. But again, I wasn't suggesting he should be a 100 point player. I said he should be at 80. I think that's a reasonable expectation.

Reasonable under reasonable circumstances.

Expecting him to more than double the points of the next closest scorer like he would have had to have done last year, is a bit unrealistic

 

[Saku K]

Having a dylan larkin or a healthy kirby dach would only help Suzuki. I mean last year alone they were 17 centers with 80+ pts and most of them were playing with another 80+ center on their team.

Hischier and Hughes
Miller and Pettersson
Draisaitl, Mcdavid and Nugent-hopkins
Point and Stamkos
Matthews and Tavares
Crosby and Malkin

That's 13 out of 17 but somehow Suzuki should have scored 80+ with Hoffman, Ylonen and wideman on the powerplay at 23 years old.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

There are 10 centers with more points than Suzuki this season: MacKinnon, McDavid, Miller, Matthews, Pettersson, Thomas, Point, Barzal and Crosby.

That's because Nick is around a point per game this season. In previous years he was a 60 something point player.

Every single one of those players is playing with at least 1 PPG winger except for Pettersson, Barzal, Crosby and Thomas.

What you're expecting Suzuki to do @Lafleurs Guy is an extremely high bar for him given the circumstances he's had to deal with.

He's shown he can do it. Dylan Larkin (not a superstar) was been able to do it.

Suzuki's been good but not great. But he's been pretty freaking great in the 2nd half of this year.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Having a dylan larkin or a healthy kirby dach would only help Suzuki. I mean last year alone they were 17 centers with 80+ pts and most of them were playing with another 80+ center on their team.

Hischier and Hughes
Miller and Pettersson
Draisaitl, Mcdavid and Nugent-hopkins
Point and Stamkos
Matthews and Tavares
Crosby and Malkin

That's 13 out of 17 but somehow Suzuki should have scored 80+ with Hoffman, Ylonen and wideman on the powerplay at 23 years old.

You've listed mostly superstar HOF players here. And some of these guys are on the same line.

And again, what your saying doesn't really make sense. He shown that he was able to get to a point per game and then would drop off. Last year he dropped off while his winger was still scoring. And look at him now putting up 7 points in his last five while his linemates haven't done anything.

Nobody's saying he's been on great teams but 66 points is a very low bar for a guy who people argued is a number one.

 

[417]

That's because Nick is around a point per game this season. In previous years he was a 60 something point player.

Also longest stretch playing with Caufield and now Slafkovsky, out of all the wingers he's played with since he started in the NHL, which one would you take over Caufield?

I think that says a lot...I don't disagree in theory that he needs to be more consistent but that's not solely his doing, he's been forced to handle a lot, very early in his career with not a lot of support.

I think as the talent level around him improves, so will he in that department.

Being able to have guys behind him that can free him up from the attention he gets whether at home (where the matchups *should* be more favorable) and on the road, should help alot.

He's shown he can do it. Dylan Larkin (not a superstar) was been able to do it.

Suzuki's been good but not great. But he's been pretty freaking great in the 2nd half of this year

Larkin had 73pts his 4th season, just 6 more than Suzuki had in his 4th season, his 5th season Larkin went down to 53pts.

Suzuki already has 59pts and on pace to surpass any season Larkin has ever had.

Just saying…

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Also longest stretch playing with Caufield and now Slafkovsky, out of all the wingers he's played with since he started in the NHL, which one would you take over Caufield?

I think that says a lot...I don't disagree in theory that he needs to be more consistent but that's not solely his doing, he's been forced to handle a lot, very early in his career with not a lot of support.

I think as the talent level around him improves, so will he in that department.

Being able to have guys behind him that can free him up from the attention he gets whether at home (where the matchups *should* be more favorable) and on the road, should help alot.


Larkin had 73pts his 4th season, just 6 more than Suzuki had in his 4th season, his 5th season Larkin went down to 53pts.

Suzuki already has 59pts and on pace to surpass any season Larkin has ever had.

Just saying…

6 points is 10 percent better. And again, we're not talking superstar here.

All I'm saying is that it's been frustrating watching this guy kill it and then go cold only to heat up again later and then go cold....

Anyways, I'm taking a break from this thread for a bit. Too many people to reply to.

Celebrate his play. He's been awesome and I hope it continues.

 

[417]

6 points is 10 percent better. And again, we're not talking superstar here.

All I'm saying is that it's been frustrating watching this guy kill it and then go cold only to heat up again later and then go cold....

Anyways, I'm taking a break from this thread for a bit. Too many people to reply to.

Celebrate his play. He's been awesome and I hope it continues.

Wasn't trying to exasperated you lol all good, haven't been following this thread just decided to post

Hoping the same for him, he deserves the recognition .

 

[Sorinth]

So 2 years ago when Suzuki had 61 points the 2nd highest point getter was at 43 points. Last year Suzuki had 66 and the 2nd highest point getter had 38 points. This year Caufield is already at 47 so it's really no surprise that Suzuki is on pace to set another career high in points.

People can claim that Suzuki has taken some massive step in his development this year, but it's not really true, sure he has improved, he's improved every single year so far. But he's still mostly the same player he's been the past couple years the major difference is he has offensive support meaning he gets more opportunities for getting points. As an example if it's Anderson on his line instead of Slaf he doesn't get that assist last game for just winning a faceoff. Like yes he's improved his faceoffs but he wasn't getting the support in previous years that you need in order to produce big numbers. It's extremely rare for a guy to flirt with ppg production when the next closest guy is in the 40 point range or worse.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Wasn't trying to exasperated you lol all good, haven't been following this thread just decided to post

Hoping the same for him, he deserves the recognition .

All good.

And people are obviously tired of me debating this.

Guy is on fire and that’s awesome.

 

[Andrei79]

I love his consistency. You pretty always know what you're going to get, aside from some walls he's hit at mid seasons, which is normal considering his game and how much other teams have nothing to focus on but him. Every year he keeps getting better and better. A real pro.