Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part 11

[The Great Weal]

Suzuki was a ghost at times in december and january, it’s ok to say it. Not just the points but his play in general.

It is ok to say it, but to claim that “his line mates kept producing” is simply untrue. They were all producing at relatively the same rate.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Suzuki was a ghost at times in december and january, it’s ok to say it. Not just the points but his play in general.

He was brutal.

Monahan went down and he forgot how to play hockey. I don’t know why people can’t acknowledge this.


I don’t expect him to turn into a zombie because f***ing Sean Monahan goes down.

Again, it would be one thing if he tanked after CC went out of the lineup. But that wasn’t the case. He tanked well beforehand.

It seems you guys are thinking that if a player produces in a consistent matter during the season, then their on-ice performance is also consistent. That is completely false.

Just because a player is producing doesn't mean they are actually playing well.
Read any other team's board during the regular season, and you will see them shit on their star players at some point for not having played well over the last long stretch of games despite the production being there.

Tavares is an obvious example of that. You see leafs fans shit on him often during the reg season, yet you look at his production, and he never goes more than a few games without scoring.

The difference between Tavares and Suzuki is that even when playing bad, Tavares will continue to rack up points simply by playing on a great offensive team with great offensive players on a great powerplay. Suzuki doesn't have that luxury, so when he's playing bad, the production will also be bad.

You guys keep mentioning how Caufield kept producing when Suzuki had a bad stretch, but ignore the fact that the difference in their production was small.

In Suzuki's worst stretch of the season, he had 8 pts in 20 games. Caufield had 12 pts in 20 games in that same period. A 4 pt difference despite Caufield playing great hockey and Suzuki playing his worst hockey...

Replace Tavares with Suzuki on the leafs, and Suzuki could still score like 15 pts in 20 games despite playing poorly in that stretch.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Not angry at all.

I don’t think you should ever aim to win with inferior skill at a position. Can you win with a shit center? Yes. Just as you can do it elsewhere. But most cup winners are well rounded and that ms what we should shoot for.

your angry cursing seems to indicate otherwise, but ok, moving on.

alright, how about we agree to judge Suzuki when he reaches his peak (in the next 2-3 years) and hopefully the team is ready to compete? IMO he has room to grow, and I'm curious to see how he does with a better supporting cast and a healthy team behind him.

we don't need him to be a top 1C now, we need him to be when the window opens.

 

[danisonfire]

I don’t give a shit if a player is 23. Is he better than the 30 year old or not? No? Then who gives a f***? ‘Cause next year Bedard will be in the league and he’ll leapfrog everyone in a few years. Same with other young players…

What?

Stop putting caveats on things. Bottom line is that Suzuki falls into the bottom tier given his play so far.

Now compare their teams power-play success rates, the % of ES points they get and the overall production of their teammates. When my team scores at a higher rate on the power-play and ES, I am going to see a production boost. When there are more players and lines to cover, they focus on me less and I have better opportunities.

If Austin Matthews has a crap year or a slump - he’s still a number one. Why? Because he’s proven it over and over. Suzuki has never proven to be a number one. We were hoping for it last year but he stumbled a few months in… so now we’re hoping for this year.

Matthews is farther along in his career. What in Nick Suzuki's history points to him having consistency issues? He has so far had, in order, 41, 41, 61, 66 points. Goals have gone up each season from 13, 15, 21, 26. He is still is learning and improving as well.

He is doing this last year with one of the worst rosters I have seen iced. He 100% can still be and grown into that guy.

If our powerplay was even league average we would have scored around 18 more goals. even if he is in on 8 of those goals, that puts him up to 74 points. If our power-play is near the top of the league like it was with Markov, He would easily push 85-90. #1 PP last years scored 89 times. We scored 38 PP goals. Think of how many D partners Markov turned into stars over the years. How many goals those powerplay generated. This is the #1 thing holding Nick Suzuki back from your point totals. His ES play gets the job done and he produces well.

Hopefully he improves. I’m expecting a big year for CC and hopefully that comes to fruition. If it does that will also help Nick. Hopefully he takes the next step. Everyone wants this!

I believe in him. I don't do that often. Caufield is another gem. They love to play hockey and both have fun playing the game. That will help them grow so much. Talent only takes you so far. Everyone in the NHL is talented to an extent.

Regardless, I think we need to try hard to get a real number one center. It can only help us if a good player like Nick gets used as a number two behind someone better.

He needs the rest of the talent to come up through our system so we can have a functional PP. When we have 2-3 lines that are solid / strong, and a functional PP; he should put up those totals you are looking for. If he doesn't do it at that point, that is when I would start to question if he will get there.

I would also question it if he had 25 ES points last year. 46 ES points on a team that cant score is nothing to dismiss. We were terrible 5v5. If anything, some of the other players need to ask themselves if they can be better.

 

[Rapala]

Ok then why aren’t you just saying that instead of making it seems like the difference in stats is so big while leaving the fact that this played played 58 games, not 82.

The players missing games need to not miss games and Suzuki would have much better stats. Using that as an excuse is just wrong. Playing games matters in a big way. When they hand out new contracts the numbers are the numbers period.

 

[Belial]

It seems you guys are thinking that if a player produces in a consistent matter during the season, then their on-ice performance is also consistent. That is completely false.

Just because a player is producing doesn't mean they are actually playing well.
Read any other team's board during the regular season, and you will see them shit on their star players at some point for not having played well over the last long stretch of games despite the production being there.

Tavares is an obvious example of that. You see leafs fans shit on him often during the reg season, yet you look at his production, and he never goes more than a few games without scoring.

The difference between Tavares and Suzuki is that even when playing bad, Tavares will continue to rack up points simply by playing on a great offensive team with great offensive players on a great powerplay. Suzuki doesn't have that luxury, so when he's playing bad, the production will also be bad.

You guys keep mentioning how Caufield kept producing when Suzuki had a bad stretch, but ignore the fact that the difference in their production was small.

In Suzuki's worst stretch of the season, he had 8 pts in 20 games. Caufield had 12 pts in 20 games in that same period. A 4 pt difference despite Caufield playing great hockey and Suzuki playing his worst hockey...

Replace Tavares with Suzuki on the leafs, and Suzuki could still score like 15 pts in 20 games despite playing poorly in that stretch.

Not to mention that they played on the same line so even if Suzuki was not getting points on some of Caufield's goals that doesn't mean he was not contributing.

It's not like Caufield was just taking the puck behind his own net and was just solo beating the whole other team to score...

It's silly talk...

 

[Heffyhoof]

In general, my bar for a number one center is that he’s in or near the top 15 in scoring for centers.

Nick Suzuki is a bottom tier number one just like Koivu was. He’s a good two way player who is outside the top fifty in scoring. In my book that makes him a really good second line center.

Just using a cursory look at scoring for the season, were he to hit just 80 points he'd be tied with Tavares and Hischier for 16th in scoring for centers and 29th overall. Unless Keller played center this year, didn't watch any Coyotes although I let slide RNH as a center.

I strongly believe Suzuki has it in him to hit 80 over a full season with proper talent in the lineup even if he has his usual slump. He had 28 more points on his next teammate regardless of games played and only six players had more than 28 points total, with one other having exactly 28.

 

[Miller Time]

Patrice Bergeron was a legit number one before he started putting up big offensive seasons. He’d dominate on both sides of the ice, great numbers, won Selkes…. Legit number one.

Koivu? No.

I’m sorry man, but he was far more well suited to the second. He was put in the wrong chair because we didn’t have anyone else. Hab fans massively overrate him.

As for Suzuki, it’s more than just the final stat line. It’s the inconsistency in his play. That’s what separates him from the number ones. And until he finds it, he’s not going to be considered as a number one anywhere but by Montreal fans.

Talent is there. But he has to prove it. He hasn’t done it yet. For decades we’ve tried to pass off guys who aren’t suited for their roles as number ones. It doesn’t do them or us any good. There’s nothing wrong with being a number two center. And so far, that’s what Suzuki has shown himself to be. Hopefully he takes the next step. If not, no worries…

Patrice Bergeron is a first ballot HOF.

If that's your reference point for "legit #1", so be it. How many current NHL C's are that? Leaves a heck of a lot of teams without one, us certainly included.

Having high standards is great I guess lol

 

[Lucky Luke]

Patrice Bergeron = The old Nick Suzuki.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

What?


Now compare their teams power-play success rates, the % of ES points they get and the overall production of their teammates. When my team scores at a higher rate on the power-play and ES, I am going to see a production boost. When there are more players and lines to cover, they focus on me less and I have better opportunities.



Matthews is farther along in his career. What in Nick Suzuki's history points to him having consistency issues? He has so far had, in order, 41, 41, 61, 66 points. Goals have gone up each season from 13, 15, 21, 26. He is still is learning and improving as well.

He is doing this last year with one of the worst rosters I have seen iced. He 100% can still be and grown into that guy.

If our powerplay was even league average we would have scored around 18 more goals. even if he is in on 8 of those goals, that puts him up to 74 points. If our power-play is near the top of the league like it was with Markov, He would easily push 85-90. #1 PP last years scored 89 times. We scored 38 PP goals. Think of how many D partners Markov turned into stars over the years. How many goals those powerplay generated. This is the #1 thing holding Nick Suzuki back from your point totals. His ES play gets the job done and he produces well.



I believe in him. I don't do that often. Caufield is another gem. They love to play hockey and both have fun playing the game. That will help them grow so much. Talent only takes you so far. Everyone in the NHL is talented to an extent.

He needs the rest of the talent to come up through our system so we can have a functional PP. When we have 2-3 lines that are solid / strong, and a functional PP; he should put up those totals you are looking for. If he doesn't do it at that point, that is when I would start to question if he will get there.

I would also question it if he had 25 ES points last year. 46 ES points on a team that cant score is nothing to dismiss. We were terrible 5v5. If anything, some of the other players need to ask themselves if they can be better.

Nobody’s dismissing him. He’s a good player. But he hasn’t proven that he can be a number one yet.

Just using a cursory look at scoring for the season, were he to hit just 80 points he'd be tied with Tavares and Hischier for 16th in scoring for centers and 29th overall. Unless Keller played center this year, didn't watch any Coyotes although I let slide RNH as a center.

I strongly believe Suzuki has it in him to hit 80 over a full season with proper talent in the lineup even if he has his usual slump. He had 28 more points on his next teammate regardless of games played and only six players had more than 28 points total, with one other having exactly 28.

He paced for 41-94 early on. So yes, the talent’s there for him to do it. 80 isn’t a crazy order. Going into last year I thought he’d get close. And it looked like he was going to blow that number away. But then he went away for months at a time where he was a ghost.

He will hopefully have a full year of CC. That will help. But I’m not going to listen to a bunch of excuses as to why he hasn’t done it yet. There’s no reason for him to have ghosted like that last year. That’s concerning. Maybe there was a hidden injury we don’t know of but if that’s the case I’d have preferred they just sat him.

Hopefully he does it this year. But he’s now going on 24 years old. He’s not a kid. If he’s going to be a legit number one, he has to show it this season.

Patrice Bergeron is a first ballot HOF.

If that's your reference point for "legit #1", so be it. How many current NHL C's are that? Leaves a heck of a lot of teams without one, us certainly included.

Having high standards is great I guess lol

Simply saying that if you’re a 60 point center, you’d better be really dominant on both sides to be considered a number one.

It’s the Koivu discussion all over again. People trying to argue that he was something he never was.

Suzuki’s not there yet. Maybe he’ll get there this year - maybe he never will. But stop trying to paint him as having been something he hasn’t been.

 

[Redux91]

The Suzuki slander is just killing me man lol..
I really hate that he's getting this much "ehh he's not as good as you all think" type stuff knowing full well the 66 pts would be much higher if Caufield didn't play only 46 games, and Dach only 58..
He'd be in the mid 70's easily
And all we'd be talking about right now with him is can he take the next step to PPG or more
Instead, everyone is waiting for the 70 points first, and then maybe will get more props than "only a 2nd line center"

I certainly don't like seeing people hang onto the "Caufield paced for 47 goals tho" while not acknowledging that had he scored 47, that's 21 more goals Suzuki could of assisted on....

I'm keeping receipts, and when Nick hits 80 points this season I'm gonna want some apologies. Lol

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

He’s on the fence right now of being a 1 or a 2 C. I’m not worried though.

Come playoff time if he always has those ice in his veins that he’s always had come spring, everything else is irrelevant.

With good D and healthy linemates he likely is a PPG player.

As long as Dach keeps progressing and inch his way closer to Zuke, Center will be the least of our worries.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

The Suzuki slander is just killing me man lol..
I really hate that he's getting this much "ehh he's not as good as you all think" type stuff knowing full well the 66 pts would be much higher if Caufield didn't play only 46 games, and Dach only 58..
He'd be in the mid 70's easily
And all we'd be talking about right now with him is can he take the next step to PPG or more
Instead, everyone is waiting for the 70 points first, and then maybe will get more props than "only a 2nd line center"

I certainly don't like seeing people hang onto the "Caufield paced for 47 goals tho" while not acknowledging that had he scored 47, that's 21 more goals Suzuki could of assisted on....

I'm keeping receipts, and when Nick hits 80 points this season I'm gonna want some apologies. Lol

All those numbers are gonna improve when those D come in too to help with the transition game.

I wouldn’t be too surprised if he hits 90-100 in a couple years. Especially with Cole flanking him and possibly/likely Slaf

 

[salbutera]

No. I just don't hold a slump during the year against a guy that set a career high and had more ES and SH points than our second leading guy had total points. He was getting all the hard ES matchups and producing. In a few years when he is older and we don't have our second leading scorer at 38 points things will look much different. Then they can't thrown everything at one line.

Just for fun I looked at the top scorers. To find the first name with 17 or less PP points like Suzuki. I had to go all the way to Brock Nelson. He was 40th in NHL scoring.

You are never hitting numbers that high (your example) with a powerplay like ours last season. All the top point producers abuse the powerplay and have help. McDavid had 71 PP points. Draisaitl had 62 PP points. Kucherov had 50 PP points. These expectations put on Suzuki are unrealistic with our team last year.

Yup - keeps getting lost in all the chatter, if the Habs PP just moves closer to 15-20 range, team offensive output will skyrocket significantly.

The missing PP QB (replacing Markov) has been the teams gaping hole, even more than 1C…

 

[Scriptor]

All those numbers are gonna improve when those D come in too to help with the transition game.

I wouldn’t be too surprised if he hits 90-100 in a couple years. Especially with Cole flanking him and possibly/likely Slaf

90-100 pointais excessively bullish on not only Suzuki, but also Caufield AND Slafkovsky!

For Suzuki to get that many points, the game of his wingers would need to explode and we'd need to have an exceptionally good PP!

I'm not sure we have the makings of two PPG wingers in the system right now or, at least, not in a mere couple of years, as you suggest.

I see Suzuki getting 70+ points this year, just with a deeper offensive lineup if Monahan and others stay healthy most of the year.

Suzuki, for starters, won't be as gassed playing every role, over 20 minutes a game. Opposing Ds will also need to concentrate on more than just Suzuki.

We still need to find a winger who can bring what Dach brought to that line last year if we prefer to play each at C going forward (which I think we should).

Slafkovsky won't be at the level of play to help that line reach a higher level for more than just a couple of years, I think, and he might never become the winger Caufield and Suzuki actually need either, even if he still plays an important role on another line, maybe the dash line?

 

[salbutera]

90-100 pointais excessively bullish on not only Suzuki, but also Caufield AND Slafkovsky!

For Suzuki to get that many points, the game of his wingers would need to explode and we'd need to have an exceptionally good PP!

I'm not sure we have the makings of two PPG wingers in the system right now or, at least, not in a mere couple of years, as you suggest.

I see Suzuki getting 70+ points this year, just with a deeper offensive lineup if Monahan and others stay healthy most of the year.

Suzuki, for starters, won't be as gassed playing every role, over 20 minutes a game. Opposing Ds will also need to concentrate on more than just Suzuki.

We still need to find a winger who can bring what Dach brought to that line last year if we prefer to play each at C going forward (which I think we should).

Slafkovsky won't be at the level of play to help that line reach a higher level for more than just a couple of years, I think, and he might never become the winger Caufield and Suzuki actually need either, even if he still plays an important role on another line, maybe the dash line?

That’s where I disagree, the PP would simply need too move to league midpoint and offensive output would be significant

Habs have been what bottom-3 since Markov’s departure?

 

[Scriptor]

That’s where I disagree, the PP would simply need too move to league midpoint and offensive output would be significant

If that was the case, there would be more than thirteen teams (19 players) representing the 90-100 point mark.

I'm all over the 80-90 point mark for Suzuki with the conditions you set forth, but 90-100 points is likely a race, IMO and, this team is three years or more away from providing the environment for Suzuki reaching between 90-100 points under the best of scenarios.

I also think that a maturing D-Corps with several of our prospects reaching close to their projected ceilings will need to come into its own before that can happen -- if it ever does.

That won't be in a couple of years only. Three to five years, for sure and, three years, would not be for all of the D-Corps.

 

[salbutera]

If that was the case, there would be more than thirteen teams (19 players) representing the 90-100 point mark.

I'm all over the 80-90 point mark for Suzuki with the conditions you set forth, but 90-100 points is likely a race, IMO and, this team is three years or more away from providing the environment for Suzuki reaching between 90-100 points under the best of scenarios.

I also think that a maturing D-Corps with several of our prospects reaching close to their projected ceilings will need to come into its own before that can happen -- if it ever does.

That won't be in a couple of years only. Three to five years, for sure and, three years, would not be for all of the D-Corps.

I agree re: Suzuki - and 80pts is a very legit top-15 C

 

[Scriptor]

I agree re: Suzuki - and 80pts is a very legit 1C

I believe Suzuki will prove to be a legit #1C, just not a generational #1C.

This does not mean that Hughes can't build competitive team around Suzuki as a #1C.

It just takes more talented depth and establishing an internal Cap structure representing Suzuki as captain and #1C will help Hughes assemble such a roster.

 

[ngc_5128]

I'm keeping receipts, and when Nick hits 80 points this season I'm gonna want some apologies. Lol

Don't hold your breath...if it happens, they will all be "big deal, he did it once. Let's see him do it three times in a row before we can make any conclusions."

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

The Suzuki slander is just killing me man lol..
I really hate that he's getting this much "ehh he's not as good as you all think" type stuff knowing full well the 66 pts would be much higher if Caufield didn't play only 46 games, and Dach only 58..
He'd be in the mid 70's easily
And all we'd be talking about right now with him is can he take the next step to PPG or more
Instead, everyone is waiting for the 70 points first, and then maybe will get more props than "only a 2nd line center"

I certainly don't like seeing people hang onto the "Caufield paced for 47 goals tho" while not acknowledging that had he scored 47, that's 21 more goals Suzuki could of assisted on....

I'm keeping receipts, and when Nick hits 80 points this season I'm gonna want some apologies. Lol

I just hate the way he dropped off beforehand. I mean, wtf? All of a sudden ghosts?

 

[KevSkillz4]

No doubt, Suzuki have all tools to put 30g, 50a season... even more. If he continue to score in his spot at PP, he will score great numbers in a season. I'm 100% confident that Habs have PPG's players in Suzuki and Caufield, they are too good to don't reach that every year of their contrats. Dach aswell have that type of potential.

 

[yianik]

I think Suzuki is a serious and mature young guy who is nevertheless still developing his game and consistency.

He is not a number 1 C yet and may never be. I think he has a real shot at it and if he can get that consistency he likely will be about a PPG solid 2 way guy.

 

[Miller Time]

Simply saying that if you’re a 60 point center, you’d better be really dominant on both sides to be considered a number one.

It’s the Koivu discussion all over again. People trying to argue that he was something he never was.

Suzuki’s not there yet. Maybe he’ll get there this year - maybe he never will. But stop trying to paint him as having been something he hasn’t been.

Sure... But you seem to seriously ignore 2 key elements in your present day assessment...
1- he's 24 (as of yesterday) & in his first 4 NHL seasons has improved his productivity each year.

2- he was the #1C on a bottom 5 team decimiated by injuries with the worst top 6 / top 4 offensive output in the league

Those 2 pieces of context are absolutely relevant and need to be factored in to any evaluation of what the player is today... IE. I don't doubt for one second that Suzuki puts up 10+ more points if you swapped him into any of the top tier rosters in the league last season... The marginal pp time reduction playing as the #2C on a team with a McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon et. wouldn't compare to the benefit of playing with legit top 6/top 4 linemates + not being the only focal point for opposing top defenders.

The context matters when evaluating his 66 point output last year, that's all I'm saying.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Sure... But you seem to seriously ignore 2 key elements in your present day assessment...
1- he's 24 (as of yesterday) & in his first 4 NHL seasons has improved his productivity each year.

2- he was the #1C on a bottom 5 team decimiated by injuries with the worst top 6 / top 4 offensive output in the league

Those 2 pieces of context are absolutely relevant and need to be factored in to any evaluation of what the player is today... IE. I don't doubt for one second that Suzuki puts up 10+ more points if you swapped him into any of the top tier rosters in the league last season... The marginal pp time reduction playing as the #2C on a team with a McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon et. wouldn't compare to the benefit of playing with legit top 6/top 4 linemates + not being the only focal point for opposing top defenders.

The context matters when evaluating his 66 point output last year, that's all I'm saying.

I’ve never said this is his ceiling. I just expected a lot more from him last year. He started great…

24, time for him to show what he can do.