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Niagara IceDogs 2022-23 Off-Season Thread

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dirty12

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OMG67 said:
You are conflating the examples to suggest it is 4-6 seasons. Ottawa sold a few players over two seasons, built a two year contender, lost the following season that would have allowed them to reboot and then had a poor season last year because of the previous lost season. They rebuilt their team with their own draft picks and have more draft picks than the normal compliment by a long shot because they didn’t need to trade much to contend.

I am talking about how to build a model franchise. It doesn’t take 4-6 years to build a model franchise.

If you look at Ottawa as the example because they are more recent than most, they had one bad season in 2017 followed by an average season in 2018. The 2019 playoff roster had 19 Ottawa players and 6 acquired players. They ended up with 106 points. The 2020 team had 22 Ottawa players and 5 acquired. They finished with 101 points in only 62 games. So, one bad season, one average season followed by two Championship calibre seasons. They acquired draft picks along the way that they still have now and didn’t use to acquire players for their two years of making a run.

Patience is a virtue, not a hinderance. The new ownership needed to start by bringing in a GM that has a track record of success. You don’t drop $20mil for an OHL franchise and then run it like a Dollar Store Hiring minimum wage staff. Let the GM bring in an experienced coach, not one with two years under his belt at Tier II.

It is shaping up as another Mickey Mouse organization.

For some reason you apologize for it by trying to justify it. You don’t even try to buy a team. You augment it when necessary. There are NINE drafted players on this team. The amount of capital out the door to acquire the other players is staggering. You don’t trade to become relevant. You work hard and build it from the ground up. They tried to renovate the top floor of a slum building so they could call it a Penthouse but ignored all the floors below it.

Now it is time to do it right. Now. Not next year. Replace your leadership with people that know what they are doing and let them run this team through the deadline. Rescind their Intent to Bid for the Memorial Cup because that is jsut silly money wasted out the door. For the money they are going to spend on that bid, they can pay management salaries for a couple years.
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Around 2005-08, the ‘67s were quite poor followed by a couple of good seasons then 10th, 10th, 8th over a span of four seasons with two big sells. The model franchise ‘67s was built on the benefits of accepting losses. Being a top team 3 of the past 4 seasons is no more impressive than what Flint has done, and so far less impressive than Erie imo.
 
OMG67

OMG67

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dirty12 said:
Around 2005-08, the ‘67s were quite poor followed by a couple of good seasons then 10th, 10th, 8th over a span of four seasons with two big sells. The model franchise ‘67s was built on the benefits of accepting losses. Being a top team 3 of the past 4 seasons is no more impressive than what Flint has done, and so far less impressive than Erie imo.
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2005 - .559%
2006 - .485% (Brian Kilrea’s time had past. his old ways of operating were over. He was no longer successful behind the bench, nor as the GM. The 67’s didn’t buy high, nor did they sell. In fact, Kilrea would never sell a player unless the player wanted out. A bunch of status quo teams for four straight seasons to finish his coaching career)
2007 - .471% ***Kilrea
2008 - .463% ***Kilrea
2009 - .640% ***Kilrea
2010 - .603% (Chris Byrne took over as head coach for 5 seasons but Kilrea was still the GM and he managed very conservatively.)
2011 - .684%
2012 - .647%
2013 - .279% ***Horrible (The first season Ottawa sold off significant players ever)
2014 - .382% ***Horrible
2015 - .596% (Jeff Brown took over the bench. Kilrea’s last year as GM)
2016 - .551%
2017 - .441%
2018 - .507% (Boyd and Tourigny take over)
2019 - .779%
2020 - .815%
2022 - .478%
2023 - .938%

Sorry for the long list and I know this is the Niagara board but I do this to show that with the right people in place, a team can change its fortunes rather quickly but you need to start with a foundation already in place. Jeff Brown was the first person to o start to emphasize the power of moving away fromt he traditional Junior model and into a more comprehensive model including off ice development and support as well as year round training. Since he‘s been behind the bench and then the GM transitioning to what is now James Boyd’s team in 2018 upon Brown’s retirement, we’ve seen a tremendous difference in preparation and approach. We’ve seen players develop much more consistently and we’ve seen a couple of really solid competitive cycles. Standings aside, we’ve only dipped slightly below .500 twice while managing assets very well.

If Niagara were to hire the right people to manage the OPERATION as opposed to the team on ice, with their arena and fan support, they could easily be a model franchise in a short period of time. However, they decided to take the short cut and hired amateurs. They dumped a lot of assets on this team already. They are short draft assets going into next year with the exception of their Comp 1st.

We can see through the timeline with Ottawa that Kilrea represented the old ways. He wasn’t very successful.. You will notice he did well in 2005, the Knights breakout season. It was that season the Knights changed the landscape of how teams operated in the OHL. It took Ottawa 8 years to change their ways and start selling players when it wasn’t their time.

Although Jeff Brown started the movement to being more professional, the combo of Boyd and Tourigny was still a revolution here. If not for the Pandemic, I seriously doubt Ottawa would have dipped to below .500 in 2022. If they’d had continuity of management and development, I have no doubt they’d have at least been a middle of the road team at worst.

The remarkable part of all this is they’ve done that while accumulating assets more than using them. Some came from the Brown years but the picks they have now are basically all theirs.

It can be done if done properly. If their strategy is to throw every asset they have available through 2027 at a Memorial Cup run next year then so be it but they would need to use next year’s 1st’s to do it. At least one of them anyway. Then they’d have an empty cupboard for 5 years and not much left on the roster to move the following year. IT would take then 2 years to be somewhat ok and probably 6 before they could actually be something again. That is not a meaningful way of doing it.

Sacrifice this year. Throw in the towel. Reset the management next season if they are unable to do it now. Start building around their two picks in the top five and move on. That is the responsible way to do it. If they choose to be irresponsible and stubborn and continue on this track, even if they do find success next year, they’ll have to sacrifice pretty much everything to do it. They’ll be devastated for years to come.
 
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dirty12

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OMG67 said:
Sacrifice this year. Throw in the towel. Reset the management next season if they are unable to do it now. Start building around their two picks in the top five and move on. That is the responsible way to do it. If they choose to be irresponsible and stubborn and continue on this track, even if they do find success next year, they’ll have to sacrifice pretty much everything to do it. They’ll be devastated for years to come.
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Good coaches win. I would be mildly surprised if Richmond was not near the bottom of picks at his disposal since his hiring.
As the ‘67s along with others have shown, a few years of being at the bottom selling for future picks along the way can build the foundation for a period of sustained success.
But it’s not the only way to contention. And in case you have not realized, I’m not all that impressed by building a good team through losses; it’s inevitable imo.
Watch out for the model franchise that is the wolves; they’re coming soon.
Just look to the Petes as a fair comp for Niagara right now. Despite the failed Merkley experiment a year in advance of an all-season, not a lot of picks in addition to the 2019 #5 & #11 picks and no high end import lured over they built arguably the best play off team in the conference had there been one. Yeah, better than the 1st place ‘67s imo. They had no opportunity to re-load during the cancelled season; and, ‘wasted’ the few picks they had on OAs just to make the playoffs last season. Here they are, solidly in contention again thanks in large part to the 2019 #5 & #11 picks.
Niagara needs to sacrifice nothing, they need to find a good coach.
 
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OMG67

OMG67

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dirty12 said:
Good coaches win. I would be mildly surprised if Richmond was not near the bottom of picks at his disposal since his hiring.
As the ‘67s along with others have shown, a few years of being at the bottom selling for future picks along the way can build the foundation for a period of sustained success.
But it’s not the only way to contention. And in case you have not realized, I’m not all that impressed by building a good team through losses; it’s inevitable imo.
Watch out for the model franchise that is the wolves; they’re coming soon.
Just look to the Petes as a fair comp for Niagara right now. Despite the failed Merkley experiment a year in advance of an all-season, not a lot of picks in addition to the 2019 #5 & #11 picks and no high end import lured over they built arguably the best play off team in the conference had there been one. Yeah, better than the 1st place ‘67s imo. They had no opportunity to re-load during the cancelled season; and, ‘wasted’ the few picks they had on OAs just to make the playoffs last season. Here they are, solidly in contention again thanks in large part to the 2019 #5 & #11 picks.
Niagara needs to sacrifice nothing, they need to find a good coach.
Click to expand...

The Petes had 22 of 30 roster players as their draft picks in 2020. Niagara right now has 9. I don‘t think you can overhaul a team in the manner Niagara has and be competitive For longer than one season. Even if it did work out, the cost isn’t worth it. We agree on coaching but IMO it goes further than that. It also isn’t about which team is better, it is about whether you can sustain competitiveness while buying and selling. It’s not about whether you can bottom out every four years and get a top 5 pick to rebuild around. I think that model is putrid and hasn’t proven to be successful over the long term. Sell a valuable player when the time is right, I agree. But it doesn’t mean you have to sell that player and end up out of the playoffs. The goal is to still be competitive enough to make the playoffs IMO. As fans we want to draft #1 overall when the team sucks but that is a flawed way of thinking. Maintain competitiveness so your team culture remains on point regardless of the level of success. Teams shouldn’t blow their brains out for players and empty their draft pick cabinets and trade their 1st round picks. First build the foundation of the first place team with your own drafting and development and then add to it in an aggressive way. If it isn’t a Championship year and the team has a highly valuable 19 year old (Peterborough - MacT) then you make that sacrifice for future assets even if you are sitting at .525% and 6th place.

I think that is the winning formula. Build a strong coaching staff and support foundation for the training and development of the players. Draft good players. With those two elements in place, you will be continually competitive Even if you have one bad draft year.

Niagara has skipped those two elements and has decided to trade everything of value to take a shortcut. Not good enough.
 

dirty12

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OMG, unless your idea of competitive is a mediocre 5-6 seed, no team with the possible exception of London has been continually competitive this century.
10th, 10th, 8th over 5 seasons with two major sells, the ‘67s seemingly loaded for a period of time was inevitable. Now go load up for a championship before the ‘67s time inevitably runs out.
 
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OMG67

OMG67

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dirty12 said:
OMG, unless your idea of competitive is a mediocre 5-6 seed, no team with the possible exception of London has been continually competitive this century.
10th, 10th, 8th over 5 seasons with two major sells, the ‘67s seemingly loaded for a period of time was inevitable. Now go load up for a championship before the ‘67s time inevitably runs out.
Click to expand...

Competitive is above .500 for most years. No one expects any team to remain in the Championship .650+ zone year after year. IF a team can maintain >.500 year over year with a championship type run every four or five seasons, to me that is a model franchise. In a bad season, maybe you dip down to .425 every ten years.

The 67’s had a poor season last year but still only finished 3 games below .500. IMO, keep your bad seasons to no worse than .450 (regardless of where you are in the standings) and modestly sell and buy when the time is right. If you build the back end of your organization and manage it properly, your worst years won’t be putrid and when you do have an opportunity to make a run, you don’t need to acquire 12 players to do it…. Or in Niagara’s case, 14 players since June 30.

And you keep referring to Ottawa in past tense from 2013 and 2014. You are making my point for me. I STATED CLEARLY that the 67’s began their newest genesis in operations with Jeff Brown in 2015. And their full genesis came in with Boyd and Tourigny in 2018. We can judge the 67’s based on Jeff Brown’s years onward because prior to that, the franchise was run very poorly (2006 through 2014) by Kilrea stuck in the olden days. I posted those years specifically to show that once you start operating in the new era of the OHL and you put good people in place, you start to see a turnaround across the board. You have to recognize the transition. Niagara has the opportunity to transition from the Burke fiasco and do the same. So far? Pretty sure its a tire fire.
 
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OMG67

OMG67

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OHL4Life said:
so they replace the current coach, who was from jr a brantford, with the current brantford jr a coach....

ok then
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In all fairness he was named the interim coach. I will give them the benefit of the doubt they will hire someone more suitable.
 

2023

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OMG67 said:
In all fairness he was named the interim coach. I will give them the benefit of the doubt they will hire someone more suitable.
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Me too. You need a qualified coach to be able to coach in this league. Sorry. This interim coach has no qualification.
 

OHL4Life

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Nothing better todo said:
Me too. You need a qualified coach to be able to coach in this league. Sorry. This interim coach has no qualification.
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nothing wrong with guys coming out of jr a/b and being very good ohl coaches, they just normally have a long track record to go with it. no one on niagara's bench, or front office for that matter, have had any type of success at any level.

OMG67 said:
In all fairness he was named the interim coach. I will give them the benefit of the doubt they will hire someone more suitable.
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no question, i have my doubts anyone of substance will eventually be hired because of the cost, but anything could happen.
 

Millpond

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I feel bad for Fitzgerald.

Coaching in the OHL is a different animal than junior B.

He wasn't surrounded with a group that had any OHL success.

I hope the next guy up is going in with eyes open .
 
Generalsupdates

Generalsupdates

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Millpond said:
I feel bad for Fitzgerald.

Coaching in the OHL is a different animal than junior B.

He wasn't surrounded with a group that had any OHL success.

I hope the next guy up is going in with eyes open .
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The new iterim coach has a 4-19-2 record in the OJHL this year for last place in their conference
 

dirty12

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dirty12 said:
OMG, unless your idea of competitive is a mediocre 5-6 seed, no team with the possible exception of London has been continually competitive.
10th, 10th, 8th over 5 seasons with two major sells, the ‘67s seemingly loaded for a period of time was inevitable. Now go load up for a championship before the ‘67s time inevitably runs out.
Click to expand...
OMG67 said:
Competitive is above .500 for most years. No one expects any team to remain in the Championship .650+ zone year after year. IF a team can maintain >.500 year over year with a championship type run every four or five seasons, to me that is a model franchise. In a bad season, maybe you dip down to .425 every ten years.

The 67’s had a poor season last year but still only finished 3 games below .500. IMO, keep your bad seasons to no worse than .450 (regardless of where you are in the standings) and modestly sell and buy when the time is right. If you build the back end of your organization and manage it properly, your worst years won’t be putrid and when you do have an opportunity to make a run, you don’t need to acquire 12 players to do it…. Or in Niagara’s case, 14 players since June 30.

And you keep referring to Ottawa in past tense from 2013 and 2014. You are making my point for me. I STATED CLEARLY that the 67’s began their newest genesis in operations with Jeff Brown in 2015. And their full genesis came in with Boyd and Tourigny in 2018. We can judge the 67’s based on Jeff Brown’s years onward because prior to that, the franchise was run very poorly (2006 through 2014) by Kilrea stuck in the olden days. I posted those years specifically to show that once you start operating in the new era of the OHL and you put good people in place, you start to see a turnaround across the board. You have to recognize the transition. Niagara has the opportunity to transition from the Burke fiasco and do the same. So far? Pretty sure its a tire fire.
Click to expand...
2018 was the 8th place finish drafting Tolnai and end of the 5 yr span that included two (10th place finishes and sells)?
Boyd stumbled upon a gold mine and just needed a coach. No different than Erie, SSM, Flint, & very likely Sudbury right? I am not really impressed by that model.

We do have a different idea of competitive; that’s ok. I think competitive starts ~0.550 which might be 5th seed and a fair shot of winning one playoff round. There’s only 10 teams, and a point is awarded for an OTL.
 
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OMG67

OMG67

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dirty12 said:
2018 was the 8th place finish drafting Tolnai and end of the 5 yr span that included two (10th place finishes and sells)?
Boyd stumbled upon a gold mine and just needed a coach. No different than Erie, SSM, Flint, & very likely Sudbury right? I am not really impressed by that model.

We do have a different idea of competitive; that’s ok. I think competitive starts ~0.550 which might be 5th seed and a fair shot of winning one playoff round. There’s only 10 teams, and a point is awarded for an OTL.
Click to expand...

But you are impressed with trading for 14 players in 5 months….
 
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Dog Fan

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Square Corners said:
As a goalie coach or just a general coach?
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Who cares. He has experience behind the bench and was coached in the league for years. I'm guessing he probably knows more about systems and practices that the inexperienced guy he has on the job now.
 

three dog night

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To add to our misery Rodwin Dionicio six games suspension served one back December 2 let’s hope some of injured players back soon.
 
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