They’re on record, multiple times, as saying they expected (more) consistent offense from both Hagelin and Panik. Not quite as many points as Connolly and Burakovsky got, but still. If Hagelin could be more productive at this point in his career, his contract would absolutely be a fair value.
I think it’s important, though, not to confuse how he’s been (successfully) utilised since he was acquired and extended, with what they expected of him at the time they acquired or signed him. Remember, this is the guy who got 2LW minutes next to Kuzy within weeks of becoming a Cap - that doesn’t happen if you expect him to purely be a shutdown forward who doesn’t put up points. Even once it was clear Panik didn’t work on the third line, Hagelin was stapled to Eller’s side along with defensively-poor Kovulchuk - again, not what you do with shutdown forwards. Mike Richards was similarly effective on the PK, faceoffs and defending, but the anticipated offence GMBM and Trotz anticipated never emerged. Hagelin is a better player than Richards, but we won a cup extracting every bit of value out of guys like Beagle and Connolly, and I don’t think the contracts GMBM signed Dillon, Schultz and Hagelin to were ‘team-friendly’. They seemed like uncorrected FA prices, on a team that knew it needed cheaper depth to succeed.
Hagelin was brought in to be a two-way player, and he seems very dependent on his linemates to be more than a defensive forward at this point. Dillon has the tools, but you expect a defensive-first D-man to be steady and proactive rather than reliant on their D-partner for stability. That’s why Dillon-Carlson and Dillon-Schultz hasn’t worked, but Dillon-TVR and Dillon-Jensen has. On paper he’s a good fit for the team, but I’m doubtful that he’s as good a fit in practice.
Four years isn’t excessive term to get the AAV down, but I’d be sceptical of any team that was giving Hagelin $2.75m on a one year contract, let alone four. And I’m not sure what about Dillon makes his overall value that much greater than either Kempny (pre-injury) or Jensen.