League News: NHL Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff) - COVID Post-Season Edition

[CapitalsCupReality]

2010 to 2014? What "direction" and "winning formula" are you talking about? When we had no clear #1 goaltender (Theodore, Vokoun, Neuvirth, then Holtby) and Oates and Hunter as coaches?

I think every Caps fan is disappointed with those years for many reasons.

yeah I’m not seeing this stay the course stuff. They tried and failed like many others, tried again, adding more talent and loopholed their way to another Cup last night.


Soooooo admirable. /eye roll

 

[twabby]

2010 to 2014? What "direction" and "winning formula" are you talking about? When we had no clear #1 goaltender (Theodore, Vokoun, Neuvirth, then Holtby) and Oates and Hunter as coaches?

I think every Caps fan is disappointed with those years for many reasons.

Yes they should have continued to push their immense talent advantage over the league instead of bringing themselves back to the field by emphasizing “structure” under Boudreau in 2010-11 and under Hunter. They should have looked at the 2008-10 years as immense successes with minor tweaks needed (such as at goaltender) instead of as catastrophic failures necessitating big change.

Tampa Bay could have very easily altered their direction after getting swept by CBJ in 2019 but unlike WSH in 2010 they decided what they were doing was working despite not winning a Cup yet and they just kept plugging away. Washington shouldn’t have overreacted to their loss to Montreal or their losing streak early in the 2010-11 season.

 

[Langway]

Tampa Bay could have very easily altered their direction after getting swept by CBJ in 2019 but unlike WSH in 2010 they decided what they were doing was working despite not winning a Cup yet and they just kept plugging away. Washington shouldn’t have overreacted to their loss to Montreal or their losing streak early in the 2010-11 season.

Yeah, I don't know about that. They very specifically targeted and paid premium prices to acquire Coleman & Goodrow, altering their bottom six's DNA in adding more checking and jam. It was something of a deviation and an admission it was an element missing (in part based on how they lost to CBJ). Those two and Maroon added more variety and edge to their forward depth. They weren't game-changers but they injected more energy/fortitude, helped them in PK/shutdown situations and also came up with some big goals. Had they stuck with more of a predominantly offensive-minded finesse approach they probably don't get over the hump. It wasn't a vast departure or an overcompensation but it also wasn't just sticking to their guns completely. They needed a different element and Brisebois did well in adding it. That he hasn't been exec of the year the past two years over Lou seems silly (all due respect to Lou).

Those Boudreau teams never could stand up to the defensive scrutiny of playoff hockey. They did need to evolve. They just couldn't really find that balance either in approach or personnel.

 

[g00n]

Yes they should have continued to push their immense talent advantage over the league instead of bringing themselves back to the field by emphasizing “structure” under Boudreau in 2010-11 and under Hunter. They should have looked at the 2008-10 years as immense successes with minor tweaks needed (such as at goaltender) instead of as catastrophic failures necessitating big change.

Tampa Bay could have very easily altered their direction after getting swept by CBJ in 2019 but unlike WSH in 2010 they decided what they were doing was working despite not winning a Cup yet and they just kept plugging away. Washington shouldn’t have overreacted to their loss to Montreal or their losing streak early in the 2010-11 season.

They were atrocious defensively and needed to trap to survive because of it. They went through new 1A goaltenders or ran a rotation for years.

Front end talent is only as good as the back end that keeps the other side from neutralizing that talent. You clearly disagree because your entire hockey philosophy is based on one single notion: offense is the best defense. But if anything those failed Caps teams should show you why that's not true. They couldn't stop anyone and peppered MTL but would then give up goals the other way.

Shift to the period you lament...

Let's look at the playoff GA stats from 2010 to 2014:

These were the stingiest teams in the league over that period. What do you notice? Hawks (twice), Bruins, and Kings were right there, and all the Cup winners came from that list. Who else was there? The Capitals.

Now look at the GF just to the left. Less than 1 goal difference per game in the playoffs between us and the Cup winners.

So in a way I agree...we shouldn't have been scrapping plans wholesale so much as trying to find that one additional goal per game. That's usually found in the form of one or two guys playing above their contracts, or guys NOT going completely dry, rather than totally shaking up the system.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Yes they should have continued to push their immense talent advantage over the league instead of bringing themselves back to the field by emphasizing “structure” under Boudreau in 2010-11 and under Hunter. They should have looked at the 2008-10 years as immense successes with minor tweaks needed (such as at goaltender) instead of as catastrophic failures necessitating big change.

Tampa Bay could have very easily altered their direction after getting swept by CBJ in 2019 but unlike WSH in 2010 they decided what they were doing was working despite not winning a Cup yet and they just kept plugging away. Washington shouldn’t have overreacted to their loss to Montreal or their losing streak early in the 2010-11 season.

Caps didn't have the defensive depth like the Lightning or a stud like Hedman. Then consider those goalies weren't anywhere near Vasilevsky's talent. That blame goes to GMGM imho who coveted talent except for areas that win actually playoff series. I see no comparison of the Lightning's debacle against the Jackets anywhere near the Cap's 2010 run. Severe talent lacking on defense for the Caps and they took the series to 7 games with a controversial no-go call.

 

[895]

I don't think Twabby and Hivemind are arguing specific personnel decisions here, just general stuff.

IIRC, the Young Guns era Caps were some of the best teams in history, analytics wise. If analytics were as prevalent then as it is now, Mcphee probably keeps and tweaks the team instead of whatever happened later with Hunter and Oates.

Do they win a cup? No idea.

 

[twabby]

Yeah, I don't know about that. They very specifically targeted and paid premium prices to acquire Coleman & Goodrow, altering their bottom six's DNA in adding more checking and jam. It was something of a deviation and an admission it was an element missing (in part based on how they lost to CBJ). Those two and Maroon added more variety and edge to their forward depth. They weren't game-changers but they injected more energy/fortitude, helped them in PK/shutdown situations and also came up with some big goals. Had they stuck with more of a predominantly offensive-minded finesse approach they probably don't get over the hump. It wasn't a vast departure or an overcompensation but it also wasn't just sticking to their guns completely. They needed a different element and Brisebois did well in adding it. That he hasn't been exec of the year the past two years over Lou seems silly (all due respect to Lou).

Those Boudreau teams never could stand up to the defensive scrutiny of playoff hockey. They did need to evolve. They just couldn't really find that balance either in approach or personnel.

Yes Tampa Bay acquired good depth pieces to complement an already very talented core. They didn't really alter their overall philosophy, as the Capitals did after 2010. They identified a few roster weaknesses and paid a premium for them because they knew their window with their star players is right now. It's what the Capitals should have done. Adding a missing element or two is much different than entirely changing the team's philosophy. They didn't ask Steven Stamkos to be a checker, or play Nikita Kucherov 15 minutes a game because his defensive game wasn't up to snuff. You mentioned it yourself: Tampa Bay didn't overcompensate, they made slight adjustments to improve weaknesses in their game. I didn't mean to say they didn't learn from getting swept by CBJ, but they also didn't look at the sweep as some indictment of their overall philosophy and completely tear it down like Washington did either.

The Boudreau teams were plagued by horrendous goaltending and that really colors how their defensive game was perceived in the playoffs, in my opinion. When you have the likes of Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov repeatedly letting in unscreened shots from distance of course your defense is going to look bad. The Capitals needed improvements on their roster and they should have addressed those needs. But they shouldn't have done what they did, which was to sacrifice the main strength of their game in order to cover up for certain weaknesses.

 

[txpd]

Yes Tampa Bay acquired good depth pieces to complement an already very talented core. They didn't really alter their overall philosophy, as the Capitals did after 2010. They identified a few roster weaknesses and paid a premium for them because they knew their window with their star players is right now. It's what the Capitals should have done. Adding a missing element or two is much different than entirely changing the team's philosophy. They didn't ask Steven Stamkos to be a checker, or play Nikita Kucherov 15 minutes a game because his defensive game wasn't up to snuff. You mentioned it yourself: Tampa Bay didn't overcompensate, they made slight adjustments to improve weaknesses in their game. I didn't mean to say they didn't learn from getting swept by CBJ, but they also didn't look at the sweep as some indictment of their overall philosophy and completely tear it down like Washington did either.

The Boudreau teams were plagued by horrendous goaltending and that really colors how their defensive game was perceived in the playoffs, in my opinion. When you have the likes of Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov repeatedly letting in unscreened shots from distance of course your defense is going to look bad. The Capitals needed improvements on their roster and they should have addressed those needs. But they shouldn't have done what they did, which was to sacrifice the main strength of their game in order to cover up for certain weaknesses.

Agree on the goaltending. I maintain that they lost to Montreal because of Varly. He gave up a fairly soft early goal in those last 3 losses and allowed Montreal to drop into their rope a dope shot blocking deal right away. He wasnt great against Pittsburgh the playoffs before.

 

[twabby]

They were atrocious defensively and needed to trap to survive because of it. They went through new 1A goaltenders or ran a rotation for years.

Front end talent is only as good as the back end that keeps the other side from neutralizing that talent. You clearly disagree because your entire hockey philosophy is based on one single notion: offense is the best defense. But if anything those failed Caps teams should show you why that's not true. They couldn't stop anyone and peppered MTL but would then give up goals the other way.

Shift to the period you lament...

Let's look at the playoff GA stats from 2010 to 2014:

View attachment 452005

These were the stingiest teams in the league over that period. What do you notice? Hawks (twice), Bruins, and Kings were right there, and all the Cup winners came from that list. Who else was there? The Capitals.

Now look at the GF just to the left. Less than 1 goal difference per game in the playoffs between us and the Cup winners.

So in a way I agree...we shouldn't have been scrapping plans wholesale so much as trying to find that one additional goal per game. That's usually found in the form of one or two guys playing above their contracts, or guys NOT going completely dry, rather than totally shaking up the system.

The Capitals underlying defensive numbers were pretty good in the 2008-10 postseasons (aside from maybe the 2009 series against Pittsburgh, which was a juggernaut), but goaltending let them down. The difference of course is that their offensive metrics were also very good in 2008-10, whereas they dropped off a cliff in the 2011-2013 postseasons.

The Capitals should have tweaked and altered their roster, but they shouldn't have rebuilt their philosophy from the ground up. They were one of the best teams in the NHL from 2008-10, and willingly gave that up because they got Halaked. It was a shame.

 

[Calicaps]

Winning formula... when they couldn't win.

Much like goals and points, actual winning is apparently overrated. And losing isn't really losing if you have a good xGF.

Black is white. Up is down.

 

[twabby]

Winning formula... when they couldn't win.

Much like goals and points, actual winning is apparently overrated. And losing isn't really losing if you have a good xGF.

Black is white. Up is down.

Just because they didn't win doesn't mean they couldn't win.

And the rest of the quote is, unsurprisingly, a blatant mischaracterization of what is being said.

 

[max21]

The Lightning now remind me more the of the 16’ 17’ Caps than the young guns era. I was so convinced 17 was our year. That year we were way below xGA for league average, I’ll hate Pittsburgh forever for that

 

[Hivemind]

I don't think Twabby and Hivemind are arguing specific personnel decisions here, just general stuff.

.

What am I arguing about, at all? I think the only statement I’ve made recently is that the Caps don’t need another injury plagued, expensive winger.

 

[Calicaps]

Just because they didn't win doesn't mean they couldn't win.

And the rest of the quote is, unsurprisingly, a blatant mischaracterization of what is being said.

It's only a mischaracterization if you ignore the fact that they could not win. Year after year. They couldn't even advance past the same baseline. Metrics uber alles ignores actual outcomes.

 

[txpd]

I will say that even with the goaltending had McPhee pulled the trigger on the Chris Pronger trade, the Caps win 2 cups in a row in 09 and 10.
They needed to trade one of Varly or Neuvirth, one of Carlson or Alzner and a 1st round pick if I remember right.

This would be the reason that MacLellan immediately targeted Brooks Orpik

 

[txpd]

It's only a mischaracterization if you ignore the fact that they could not win. Year after year. They couldn't even advance past the same baseline. Metrics uber alles ignores actual outcomes.

Goals and points and wins are overrated

 

[Hivemind]

It's only a mischaracterization if you ignore the fact that they could not win. Year after year. They couldn't even advance past the same baseline. Metrics uber alles ignores actual outcomes.

His argument is that you could say the same thing about the Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman-era Lightning, until they finally did win.
“Did not” and “could not” are not the same thing.

 

[Calicaps]

His argument is that you could say the same thing about the Stamkos/Kucherov/Hedman-era Lightning, until they finally did win.
“Did not” and “could not” are not the same thing.

Yes, I understand him. Thank you. But I disagree with the full premise: 1. that the Caps were on the right track and abandoned it. and 2. that Tampa 100% stayed the course. and 3. that 1 & 2 are the only differences/main factors

 

[Melkor]

One thing ignored in this discussion is their draft work. When you're talking about 2010-2014 period you have to look back at who they picked in 2007-2009 because it would be fair to say those players were expected to be conributors for those teams. They fumbled pretty much the entire 2007 draft with Alzner the only decent player or dare I say the only NHLer out of them. They fell into that "let's take the son of our guy" trap with Gustafsson and got burned on it. Carlson came more or less into his own in like 2012 when they were really struggling with putting up an NHL caliber lineup and Hunter had to lock it down defensively. Holtby had been wildly inconsistent under Oates until Trotz took over. MoJo was more of a whipping boy than a respectable player and Orlov got a regular lineup spot in like 2015 after missing a whole year with an injury. They had mainly missed in high rounds while Tampa pretty much built itself into the best team in the league through the later rounds and some crafty work on the market. Palat, Colton, Johnson, Gourde, Point.. interesting thing about Point. He was taken a couple of spots lower than Nathan Walker, 20 year old overager from third world hockey country and non existent draft pedigree.

 

[g00n]

How many Cup winners in the last 10 or so years have been over the Cap or used some loophole?

 

[txpd]

Holtby had been wildly inconsistent under Oates until Trotz took over..

That was because Oates was coaching the goaltenders.

 

[txpd]

How many Cup winners in the last 10 or so years have been over the Cap or used some loophole?

There's over the cap and then there's OVER THE F'N CAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Corby78]

Also this just shows you how far washington is from another cup run. Tampa stocked up on talent and fair or not won 2 cups in a row. Washington doesn't have close to that level of talent. No guys like maroon or v or good row or the guy who scored today

Nobody has talent like Tampa. Everyone would like to be the 90s redwings, or avalanche, today’s Tampa etc.. shoot a few years ago everyone wanted all our talent. It’s hard to do.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

One thing ignored in this discussion is their draft work. When you're talking about 2010-2014 period you have to look back at who they picked in 2007-2009 because it would be fair to say those players were expected to be conributors for those teams. They fumbled pretty much the entire 2007 draft with Alzner the only decent player or dare I say the only NHLer out of them. They fell into that "let's take the son of our guy" trap with Gustafsson and got burned on it. Carlson came more or less into his own in like 2012 when they were really struggling with putting up an NHL caliber lineup and Hunter had to lock it down defensively. Holtby had been wildly inconsistent under Oates until Trotz took over. MoJo was more of a whipping boy than a respectable player and Orlov got a regular lineup spot in like 2015 after missing a whole year with an injury. They had mainly missed in high rounds while Tampa pretty much built itself into the best team in the league through the later rounds and some crafty work on the market. Palat, Colton, Johnson, Gourde, Point.. interesting thing about Point. He was taken a couple of spots lower than Nathan Walker, 20 year old overager from third world hockey country and non existent draft pedigree.

Precisely this. Caps don't have that kind of draft record in those type of players. Lightning blow most teams out of the water with home grown picks and lower round gems.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Another thing to add is many of us Caps fans wouldn't have tolerated some of those off years the Lightning had during those retooling years. That franchise has a record of going deep in the playoffs when they make it, except unlike the Canes, they go to the finals or win the SC.