For many sports owners, building the mini city is actually the point.
NHL Expansion back on agenda?
- Thread starter uhlaw97
- Start date
Tawnos
A guy with a bass
They won't but to the conversation, we're definitely approaching a ceiling here. I was mentioning the other day... continuing to increase franchise values is the goal here, and because of that the NHL isn't going to be looking to expand just anywhere. There simply aren't that many valuable markets left to tap. IMO, we're not looking at any markets with a MSA of under 2 million people. And then I don't think we're looking at any existing NBA markets of under 3 million unless there's some X factor allowing for both to exist. We'll see if that prediction of mine turns out true. It definitely isn't going to be 50 teams. 40 maybe.
Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix we've discussed.
Inland Empire, CA isn't somewhere that any of the big leagues have considered yet. The population isn't really centralized, so it's hard to envision.
San Diego
Baltimore is unlikely
Portland has a bit of an X factor with its hockey history and general feeling that the market is underserved (though the latter would change if they got MLB)
Austin
Cincinnati is unlikely
Kansas City
That's it. 7 markets plus maybe 1 more Canadian teams if they can overcome the issues we've discussed ad nauseum. I don't see Orlando, Charlotte, San Antonio, Sacramento, Cleveland, or Indianapolis as having any kind of X factor to be 2-league indoor winter sports cities. Though some of those might be possible in 15-20 years. Orlando, Charlotte, and San Antonio in particular.
It's also a bit of an open question on whether or not the NHL would want to max out the viable markets. Those first three are top-10 markets in terms of size in the United States, so the effect on franchise values league-wide with successful teams there could be significant. The rest would end up with a more limited impact.
Barclay Donaldson
Registered User
San Antonio's ownership group doesn't want anything to do with hockey. They control the arena. It's why they sold the Rampage to begin with and I believe they were trying to get more into soccer based on their activity over the last five years.
As long as they control the arena, San Antonio isn't an option. That is despite being a desirable market from at a glimpse
dj4aces
An Intricate Piece of Infinity
Oh yeah, we're for sure approaching a ceiling. I just never claimed we should go to 50.
After the league goes to 36, I see further expansion as unlikely. Franchise values and the cost of buying in will become too great to consider, and that's gonna be the "soft cap". If more than 36 happens, cool, and I'll be the first to welcome those new teams and fans to the league... but I think 36 will be it. HOU and ATL now, PHX and a lucky market to be named in ~10 years.
To that other guy's point, I find a "second division" interesting, but just wanna know how that's supposed to work under the confines of the North American sports landscape. Based on the reaction to relegation being off the table though, it sounded like that's the only ball they came to play with, and I popped it.
No Fun Shogun
34-38-61-10-13-15
36 is the target, but I'll always stand by my opinion that if someone flashes the NHL a ten-figure check, expansion will be back on the menu even after that.
dj4aces
An Intricate Piece of Infinity
By the time we reach 36, it might take an eleven-figure check to get their attention!
These Are The Days
I need about tree fiddy
San Antonio may be a very good option for the 36th team. Assuming a Quebec City owner has the money, San Antonio, Houston and Atlanta make sense. If San Diego wanted to go and build a new arena I'd say they are another fantastic idea. Portland too but I suppose a prospective owner would've said something by now.
Does that make it difficult to sell off the team later where a new owner would find it difficult to be financially viable if they don't own the mini city?
Owners will come and go. Be in 10, 20, 30 years time. All of SJ, TB, Ott, Ana, Fla, Nas, Min, Atl, have been sold. Only. CBJ where original owner died, passed onto his son, have not been sold.
It's pretty refreshing to see how in-demand NHL franchises are. For a while there they were dogs with fleas before and right after the 2005 lockout.
It also helps when NBA franchises are so costly and MLB franchises don't necessarily work in medium to smaller markets.
It also helps when NBA franchises are so costly and MLB franchises don't necessarily work in medium to smaller markets.
Yukon Joe
Registered User
I continue to think that expansion will always be "on the table" if a potentially owner steps forward willing to pay an ever-increasing amount for a franchise.
League may have little interest in going to, say, Austin, but if someone waves $1.5 billion under their noses watch how fast they put a team there.
And part of the reason is the cold, hard cash ($1.5 bil split 32 ways is almost $47 million per team), but the fact it sets a new benchmark for franchise values, and thus increases the value of every other team in the league.
If they expand to 34 I think they should get rid of conferences and just go 1-16 with the best teams in the league by points.
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Expand to Portland and San Diego/Arizona to round out the Western/Northwest division (although North West will be the only without 7 or more teams).
My logic was solely based on location in terms of travel plus some natural regional rivals/rivalries that have extended to other sports (e.g. Having the Preds and Atlanta in the same division is very SEC).
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| Eastern Division |
| Boston |
| Montreal |
| New York Rangers |
| New York Islanders |
| New Jersey Devils |
| Philadelphia Flyers |
| Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Central Division |
| Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Detroit Red Wings |
| Chicago Blackhawks |
| Buffalo Sabres |
| Columbus Blue Jackets |
| Minnisota Wild |
| St Louis Blues |
| South Division |
| Nashville Predators |
| Carolina Hurricanes |
| Atlanta* |
| Florida Panthers |
| Tampa Bay Lightning |
| Dallas Stars |
| Houston* |
| Western Division |
| Colorado Avalanche |
| Utah Hockey Club/Yeti |
| Vegas Golden Knights |
| LA Kings |
| Anaheim Ducks |
| San Jose Sharks |
| Northwest Division |
| Winnipeg Jets |
| Edmonton Oilers |
| Calgary Flames |
| Vancouver Canucks |
| Seattle Kraken |
Expand to Portland and San Diego/Arizona to round out the Western/Northwest division (although North West will be the only without 7 or more teams).
My logic was solely based on location in terms of travel plus some natural regional rivals/rivalries that have extended to other sports (e.g. Having the Preds and Atlanta in the same division is very SEC).
Aero 75
Registered User
The San Antonio Spurs are seeking a new arena and baseball stadium in downtown San Antonio, and could be leaving the Frost Bank Center in a few years. If they do indeed end up moving, that will leave both the Frost Bank Center, and Freeman Coliseum next door, possibly open for a future hockey team. Time will tell.
Aero 75
Registered User
Pretty sure Aeros would be the overwhelming favorite nickname amongst Houston hockey fans. Apollos would be a great nickname also, and fits perfectly into Houston's 'Space City' nickname.
Aero 75
Registered User
Jumping the gun here a little bit, but if Houston gets a team, maybe San Antonio should be considered for AHL. Merrill Center in Katy is a bit small (seats 5,200 for basketball) and would need to have an ice rink installed. New arena being built in Pasadena (capacity 7,500) would be big enough for AHL, but it will also need to add an ice rink (not currently in the plans). Multiple sources say Beaumont will be getting a team for the 2025-26 season in the FPHL.
Based on how the Astros v. Rangers rivalry has played out in MLB, a future Aeros v. Stars rivalry could be EPIC!!!
Well, it's also the available markets right now. NHL is not in ATL, HOU, AZ right now, which are top 10 metro markets. The other big 3 are all in those markets.
NBA planning on going to LV and SEA. They could have returned to SEA before the NHL got there, but expansion wasn't a major concern for them. They have issues such as load management, tanking, etc. to deal with before adding 2 additional teams.
And they will get their money in expansion for LV and SEA at $4 billion or more (using the Suns sale price).
Yeah, which goes with the notion that the NHL is far more affordable and there is growth in franchise values which makes it open to more owners/markets.
sneakytitz
Registered User
San Antonio would be a good choice, given it's proximity to Austin, which hosts Dallas' AHL affiliate. Would love to see the ECHL/SPHL/FPHL put more teams into eastern Texas to help boost the hockey scene in Texas.
NBA/NHL are tied together. Really 2 options when it comes to both leagues getting into Hou, Atl, AZ, Sea, and LV which the other league is already in. Either the current league team's owner buys the other league's club or there needs to be another arena built in a different county with separate ownership. OVG wanted NBA team down the line, so had to ensure Bonderman was able and willing to acquire an NBA team. LV, seems like another arena will be built for them.
Hou/AZ, most likely going to be Fertittia and Ishiba. ATL, clearing going option 2 with a different ownership group than the Hawks.
nhlfan79
Registered User
Point of clarification: Neither of the two prospective NHL ownership groups in Atlanta involve the Hawks.
TheLegend
"Just say it 3 times..."
Tawnos
A guy with a bass
That’s… not actually what he said. Bad headline. He said “we’re not going through an expansion process.” To me, that means they’re not opening up a formal bidding process. It’s a strong denial that kind of isn’t a denial. Bettman’s specialty.
takimaki
Registered User
Classic Gary. Basically he's telling us to STFU because it's none of our business, and he hates rumors and speculation. But he's not denying it at all. Its just him venting at everyone talking about "private matters". He's always done this crap.
GreenHornet
Registered User
dj4aces
An Intricate Piece of Infinity
It's even sillier than that.
Bettman is saying "You can't break the news! Only we can break the news!"
Whether it happens at the 1 October BoG meeting is certainly a question, but I'm gonna throw down my gauntlet and say it's gonna happen by the 9-10 December BoG meetings. It gives Forsyth County voters a chance to decide whether they want the special Tax Allocation District that's on their ballot, as well as giving the Alpharetta city council/mayor a chance to figure out exactly what they want to do with the site upon which North Point Mall sits. Then there's also the matter of Houston and whether Fertitta has decided yet where he sits on paying the fee.
Make no mistake though, expansion is coming. We know it, and he knows we know it.
