NHL Expansion back on agenda?

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
193,390
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I only know what I saw in an interview with his sons, who are hockey enthusiasts. I think there is a change in thinking with expansion. The NHL carefully chose markets that weren't directly competing with the NBA, going back to Nashville and Columbus. Vegas and Seattle were slam dunks, being the primary winter sport team.

Now it's looking at market size, the NHL just lost a top 10 U.S market, after relocating another one to the league's smallest market, north of the border. I think Bettman and the owners want to make a move that in appearance puts the NHL back in the big leagues, still ahead of MLS, behind NBA but not by as big of a margin. I think it's PR, to keep growing value in the NHL brand. You know both markets will be guaranteed All Star games within the first 5 years. Probably have a battle of Texas outdoor game. I don't know if the next round of expansion is good for the game, but it is good for business.

Arizona was a top market, but it doesn’t do you any good if they’re not a draw. They have examples now that you can have them he a draw when they’re good right away or just new and shiny, and those successes are big reasons why so many are interested.
 

DudeWhereIsMakar

Bergevin sent me an offer sheet
Apr 25, 2014
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I can't believe Atlanta is getting a third shot. Well, maybe it was just Atlanta Spirit that sucked brutally as owners. But my prediction for Thrashers 2.0 is one of two things, one being either rigged to success so they attract more fans. Two, it's a contract graveyard where the contracts of Darnell Nurse, PLD and Seth Jones end up (Well, Jones I see going to Houston via the expansion draft).

But Houston getting the Aeros back would be nice to see. I think it'll be popular because of low taxes.
 
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TheLegend

"Just say it 3 times..."
Aug 30, 2009
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Arizona was a top market, but it doesn’t do you any good if they’re not a draw. They have examples now that you can have them he a draw when they’re good right away or just new and shiny, and those successes are big reasons why so many are interested.

Arizona was a top market that was a victim of mismanagement (by both the league and various ownerships) from day one.
 

dj4aces

An Intricate Piece of Infinity
Dec 17, 2007
6,539
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Duluth, GA
I can't believe Atlanta is getting a third shot. Well, maybe it was just Atlanta Spirit that sucked brutally as owners. But my prediction for Thrashers 2.0 is one of two things, one being either rigged to success so they attract more fans. Two, it's a contract graveyard where the contracts of Darnell Nurse, PLD and Seth Jones end up (Well, Jones I see going to Houston via the expansion draft).
What is there to not believe about it? Is it so unbelievable that the league would actually conduct market research of their own, evaluate the plans the various Atlanta groups have, and determined for themselves that it may actually work this time around?

Look, be happy you guys got the first Thrashers team. The second one will be just fine right here where it belongs.
 

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
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What is there to not believe about it? Is it so unbelievable that the league would actually conduct market research of their own, evaluate the plans the various Atlanta groups have, and determined for themselves that it may actually work this time around?

Look, be happy you guys got the first Thrashers team. The second one will be just fine right here where it belongs.
Not sure if the NHL is doing market research. It's really contacting Fertittia in Houston about his interest, unless there is another group that will follow what the 2 ATL groups are planning which is building another arena outside of Harris county. NHL would be more vetting the ownership groups. They see ATL and HOU as large metro markets.

Their main goal is to ensure that the ownership groups are good and that they have arena deals signed. Non traditional markets, need strong stable ownership. Otherwise, you end up with the days back when FLA was drawing 4 figures nightly. With Hou, if it is with Fertittia, they would want to know what the plans are for Toyota Center for the next 25 years to say 2050. Big reno like Bos, Phi, STL, etc have had or will they look to build a new one.

NHL teams are now on notice that Expansion is coming so they better manage their NMC and ED protection over the next couple of years. Houston can start by 26/27 (2026 draft) if they are announced sometime during the 24/25 season. ATL needs to wait for their arena to be built.
 

sneakytitz

Registered User
Mar 8, 2023
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Atlanta, GA, USA
Atlanta at least will start losing money probably in year 4.

There is absolutely no way this happens.

Two big, local examples to show this:

1) The Atlanta Braves/Battery - After seeing what happened with the Atlanta Braves and the Battery, the entire sports world realized that the model to printing money going forward was to use an arena/ballpark as the anchor to a mixed-use development in the suburbs.


2) Atlanta United - For all intents and purposes, soccer had no history in Atlanta. Yeah we had the Chiefs (hardly anyone alive saw them play or remembers them) and we had the Silverbacks (which weren't really a big deal). Regardless, a new team coming to the city excited fans and they showed up in droves, and continue to do so. Since their founding, they have led the MLS in attendance every year and own dozens and dozens of attendance records.

Now, why does that matter for Anson or Krause's pitch?

First, they're wanting to put their mixed-use developments in the middle of the highest concentration of wealth and disposable income in the entire state. Of the 10 richest cities in Georgia, 4 are 10 or less than 10 minutes away of the arena and another 2 are 15 minutes away from the arena, no matter where it ends up.

Second, Atlanta fans have shown they'll support a new team even if they don't have a history/affinity for the sport. It doesn't stop there, however, because both arena locations are in the middle of a Thrashers season ticket holders heat map. In other words, they're bringing the arena/team to their previous customers.

Absolutely no way they lose money or fail going forward. That is going to be THE place to be on game night.
 

Salsero1

Registered User
Nov 10, 2022
202
455
There is absolutely no way this happens.

Two big, local examples to show this:

1) The Atlanta Braves/Battery - After seeing what happened with the Atlanta Braves and the Battery, the entire sports world realized that the model to printing money going forward was to use an arena/ballpark as the anchor to a mixed-use development in the suburbs.


2) Atlanta United - For all intents and purposes, soccer had no history in Atlanta. Yeah we had the Chiefs (hardly anyone alive saw them play or remembers them) and we had the Silverbacks (which weren't really a big deal). Regardless, a new team coming to the city excited fans and they showed up in droves, and continue to do so. Since their founding, they have led the MLS in attendance every year and own dozens and dozens of attendance records.

Now, why does that matter for Anson or Krause's pitch?

First, they're wanting to put their mixed-use developments in the middle of the highest concentration of wealth and disposable income in the entire state. Of the 10 richest cities in Georgia, 4 are 10 or less than 10 minutes away of the arena and another 2 are 15 minutes away from the arena, no matter where it ends up.

Second, Atlanta fans have shown they'll support a new team even if they don't have a history/affinity for the sport. It doesn't stop there, however, because both arena locations are in the middle of a Thrashers season ticket holders heat map. In other words, they're bringing the arena/team to their previous customers.

Absolutely no way they lose money or fail going forward. That is going to be THE place to be on game night.
No, you got it wrong. They can't possibly like hockey. Any other sport, yes, but the people of Atlanta specifically will not be able to understand or appreciate hockey. How else are people like the OP supposed to feel special if *anyone* can like their favorite sport?
 

LPHabsFan

Registered User
Jul 14, 2003
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Montreal
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There is absolutely no way this happens.

Two big, local examples to show this:

1) The Atlanta Braves/Battery - After seeing what happened with the Atlanta Braves and the Battery, the entire sports world realized that the model to printing money going forward was to use an arena/ballpark as the anchor to a mixed-use development in the suburbs.


2) Atlanta United - For all intents and purposes, soccer had no history in Atlanta. Yeah we had the Chiefs (hardly anyone alive saw them play or remembers them) and we had the Silverbacks (which weren't really a big deal). Regardless, a new team coming to the city excited fans and they showed up in droves, and continue to do so. Since their founding, they have led the MLS in attendance every year and own dozens and dozens of attendance records.

Now, why does that matter for Anson or Krause's pitch?

First, they're wanting to put their mixed-use developments in the middle of the highest concentration of wealth and disposable income in the entire state. Of the 10 richest cities in Georgia, 4 are 10 or less than 10 minutes away of the arena and another 2 are 15 minutes away from the arena, no matter where it ends up.

Second, Atlanta fans have shown they'll support a new team even if they don't have a history/affinity for the sport. It doesn't stop there, however, because both arena locations are in the middle of a Thrashers season ticket holders heat map. In other words, they're bringing the arena/team to their previous customers.

Absolutely no way they lose money or fail going forward. That is going to be THE place to be on game night.

Well, it's quite fitting/interesting that the day after these reports came out, the Sens announced their arena plans (sort of) which means a move downtown because the one in the suburbs was such a failure on many levels.

As much as you can point to the success of the Braves, they already had a rich history with decades to develop their fanbase in a sport that is considered "America's Pastime". A

Despite Atlanta having little no professional soccer history, they do have an absolutely rich history of youth soccer so the seeds were planted. I'll be honest though, I don't think anyone expected the success they've had and more power to them. But are they the example, or are they the exception? When everything was going down with the Thrashers, weren't most people talking about how fickle Atlanta sports fans could be even with their support of the Braves, Hawks, and Falcons?

As I said, current demographics might dictate that is the best place to hold their games but are you limiting fanbase potential by going to a place where a majority of people will find it difficult to access? My guess will be yes.
 

dj4aces

An Intricate Piece of Infinity
Dec 17, 2007
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Duluth, GA
Not sure if the NHL is doing market research. It's really contacting Fertittia in Houston about his interest, unless there is another group that will follow what the 2 ATL groups are planning which is building another arena outside of Harris county. NHL would be more vetting the ownership groups. They see ATL and HOU as large metro markets.
I can tell you that both Krause and Carter here have conducted their own market research to determine where the fans live and a decent idea of how much interest exists in the market. I would expect nothing less than for the league to check their work.

As evidenced by all the wharrgarbl whining about Atlanta being in the mix for a third chance, it's really a bit of a hot button issue. So the market is very much under a magnifying glass, with some groups of fans hoping to catch a sunbeam with it so they can burn it down again.

NHL teams are now on notice that Expansion is coming so they better manage their NMC and ED protection over the next couple of years. Houston can start by 26/27 (2026 draft) if they are announced sometime during the 24/25 season. ATL needs to wait for their arena to be built.
I would argue that NHL teams have been on notice since Seattle started that another round is coming soon. The owners are the governors after all, and even if they don't talk about everything discussed at those meetings with the press, they absolutely put their front office staff on notice. The people who are truly on notice now that it's happening are the fans.

On the arena situation here, we indeed need a building. It'll take between two and three years to construct an arena, but with multiple groups having multiple arena plans, nothing is getting started until one of these groups is awarded a franchise. So even then, the Atlanta timeline is in the hands of the league. So, hopefully the franchises are awarded either at the December meeting or the June meeting (don't know that they'd do it at the spring GM meeting), but it took a full year for the NHL to announce Seattle after the application process was formally announced. In this way, I'd pencil Atlanta in at 2028-2029 if that precedent holds true.
 

dj4aces

An Intricate Piece of Infinity
Dec 17, 2007
6,539
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Duluth, GA
As I said, current demographics might dictate that is the best place to hold their games but are you limiting fanbase potential by going to a place where a majority of people will find it difficult to access? My guess will be yes.
I don't think it's as much about limiting fan potential as it is about mitigating risk. We've seen two swings downtown, and two misses. People point to attendance and say "that's the reason, the market sucks", when they really don't know what they're talking about.

If I were a betting man, I would say that the eventual goal of Thrashers 2.0 would be *to* play in a location that is central to the market. But a lot of foundational work has to be done. If these ownership groups are smart, they would also have plans to build rinks all around the city as opposed to strictly sticking to north of town. Organize school trips (the first exposure to hockey my classmates in middle school had was when the Atlanta Knights visited our school), and just give the kids in the area exposure to the game.

A negative many people cite when it comes to Atlanta is the fact that folks here have watched two teams come into the league, and two teams leave, and the fear that folks who remember both are unlikely to give their hearts to a third only to watch it leave as well. What better way to quell those fears and ensure success than to have their first home be in an area where fans already exist, and grow out from there?
 

GKJ

Global Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
193,390
43,676
There is absolutely no way this happens.

Two big, local examples to show this:

1) The Atlanta Braves/Battery - After seeing what happened with the Atlanta Braves and the Battery, the entire sports world realized that the model to printing money going forward was to use an arena/ballpark as the anchor to a mixed-use development in the suburbs.


2) Atlanta United - For all intents and purposes, soccer had no history in Atlanta. Yeah we had the Chiefs (hardly anyone alive saw them play or remembers them) and we had the Silverbacks (which weren't really a big deal). Regardless, a new team coming to the city excited fans and they showed up in droves, and continue to do so. Since their founding, they have led the MLS in attendance every year and own dozens and dozens of attendance records.

Now, why does that matter for Anson or Krause's pitch?

First, they're wanting to put their mixed-use developments in the middle of the highest concentration of wealth and disposable income in the entire state. Of the 10 richest cities in Georgia, 4 are 10 or less than 10 minutes away of the arena and another 2 are 15 minutes away from the arena, no matter where it ends up.

Second, Atlanta fans have shown they'll support a new team even if they don't have a history/affinity for the sport. It doesn't stop there, however, because both arena locations are in the middle of a Thrashers season ticket holders heat map. In other words, they're bringing the arena/team to their previous customers.

Absolutely no way they lose money or fail going forward. That is going to be THE place to be on game night.
I’m with you, this is a much better plan that’s out there for Atlanta. Being out in the suburbs sounds confusing for someone who is unfamiliar (of which I am included, I’ve never been to Atlanta, only been to Georgia once in fact), but I feel like this follows a template similar to Anaheim, removed from the core of the market, but in a spot that makes sense.

Also, the Thrashers were the only Atlanta team I liked.
 

GreenHornet

Registered User
Mar 3, 2011
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470
Norcross, GA
I don't think it's as much about limiting fan potential as it is about mitigating risk. We've seen two swings downtown, and two misses. People point to attendance and say "that's the reason, the market sucks", when they really don't know what they're talking about.

If I were a betting man, I would say that the eventual goal of Thrashers 2.0 would be *to* play in a location that is central to the market. But a lot of foundational work has to be done. If these ownership groups are smart, they would also have plans to build rinks all around the city as opposed to strictly sticking to north of town. Organize school trips (the first exposure to hockey my classmates in middle school had was when the Atlanta Knights visited our school), and just give the kids in the area exposure to the game.

A negative many people cite when it comes to Atlanta is the fact that folks here have watched two teams come into the league, and two teams leave, and the fear that folks who remember both are unlikely to give their hearts to a third only to watch it leave as well. What better way to quell those fears and ensure success than to have their first home be in an area where fans already exist, and grow out from there?
Hmmmmm. It's almost as if Atlanta and Ottawa are -- and hear me out here -- two different metro areas with two uniquely different demographic mixes and cultures.
 

BMN

Registered User
Jun 2, 2021
367
498
If I were a betting man, I would say that the eventual goal of Thrashers 2.0 would be *to* play in a location that is central to the market. But a lot of foundational work has to be done. If these ownership groups are smart, they would also have plans to build rinks all around the city as opposed to strictly sticking to north of town. Organize school trips (the first exposure to hockey my classmates in middle school had was when the Atlanta Knights visited our school), and just give the kids in the area exposure to the game.
I think another thing they need to leverage with a new location, and I cannot emphasize this enough, is to find a way to make NHLATL a part of the "casual conversation." Coaches' shows in highly frequented areas near Forsyth County or Alpharetta (depending on which bid prevails), etc. I know "water cooler talk" is an outmoded/outdated concept but basically the equivalent of that...make the sight of Atlanta hockey figures a familar sight rather than "who are these people?"

There's very little that I think they can learn from ATLUTD (I think those situations are not nearly as alike as they are made out to be.....I said as much three years ago and my mind hasn't changed) but one area?.......the murals! An Atlanta NHL team logo needs to be muralized in all of the parts of metro ATLUTD doesn't touch.
 
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Melrose Munch

Registered User
Mar 18, 2007
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Well, it's quite fitting/interesting that the day after these reports came out, the Sens announced their arena plans (sort of) which means a move downtown because the one in the suburbs was such a failure on many levels.

As much as you can point to the success of the Braves, they already had a rich history with decades to develop their fanbase in a sport that is considered "America's Pastime". A

Despite Atlanta having little no professional soccer history, they do have an absolutely rich history of youth soccer so the seeds were planted. I'll be honest though, I don't think anyone expected the success they've had and more power to them. But are they the example, or are they the exception? When everything was going down with the Thrashers, weren't most people talking about how fickle Atlanta sports fans could be even with their support of the Braves, Hawks, and Falcons?

As I said, current demographics might dictate that is the best place to hold their games but are you limiting fanbase potential by going to a place where a majority of people will find it difficult to access? My guess will be yes.
I have to agree, but the Braves were having attendance issues for some time. The move to the suburbs although sports teams period (not just hockey) should be downtown. I support the Alpharetta group more because of this. Forsyth is just so far, although ultimately whatever gets the NHL back in Atlanta is fine.


The talk about the center of the fanbase ignores that we are supposed to be growing the game. Based on the stated objective of the southern teams, Downtown Atlanta is better.
 

Melrose Munch

Registered User
Mar 18, 2007
24,096
2,295
Hmmmmm. It's almost as if Atlanta and Ottawa are -- and hear me out here -- two different metro areas with two uniquely different demographic mixes and cultures.
Here's the thing: The Phoenix Coyotes moved to the suburbs. They wanted a hockey only arena. And now they're gone. Sports in the suburbs is a bad long term goal. Ask the Cleveland Cavaliers.

You need a strong regional brand, or to be a "national team" in your sport i.e. The NY Giants, Cowboys, Dolphins (they play in Miami Gardens), etc.

Otherwise, when starting a new team, give access to the entire region. It will be tough for someone from Decatur or Jonesboro to do the drive to Forsyth 2x a week for game.
 

dj4aces

An Intricate Piece of Infinity
Dec 17, 2007
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Duluth, GA
I think another thing they need to leverage with a new location, and I cannot emphasize this enough, is to find a way to make NHLATL a part of the "casual conversation."
Oh absolutely. I still remember the Thrashers going on a win or lose streak, and yet nary a syllable about the team was mentioned on 640 WGST. I remember the one billboard in town was at the Brookwood Interchange., and nowhere else. The NHL in Atlanta was almost one of the best-kept secrets in the city, and that's pretty damn depressing.

If the ownership -- whichever ownership group it might be -- storms out the gate with some solid marketing, it should go some distance toward making the rest of the metro area sit up and take notice. Whether it be Krause or Carter, I believe both of them have that plan firmly in mind. Both of them firmly believe in the NHL in Atlanta (and you'd be a knuckledragging moron to drop over $1bn on a franchise if you didn't).
The talk about the center of the fanbase ignores that we are supposed to be growing the game. Based on the stated objective of the southern teams, Downtown Atlanta is better.
While I understand where you're coming from, please refer back to: No one wants to go downtown, at all, ever, period.

There's a reason the Braves moved out of that area. I think once Ressler gets tired of trying to make State Farm Arena work, he too will move the Hawks out of downtown.

What works in some cities does not work in all cities.
 

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