Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[JSn0w93]

So first of all I'm going to explain how I ranked my top-62 guys in the draft. I used the baseball 20-80 FV scale (or I guess how Pronman does it in hockey) but I obviously tweaked it to what I have below instead of rating their skills individually like Pronman does. It's extremely arbitrary due to the fact that players can have all sorts of impacts on an average season, but the idea behind it was to predict what I felt was the players ceiling by using a FV number and then using a letter to show how likely I feel the player was to actually hit that ceiling.

For example, with a guy like Lafreniere (I have him as a 65 C): That means I believe he has the potential to be a Top-5 LW in the NHL at around a 41-59% probability (the probabilities are completely made up based on gut feel), but the idea behind my rankings is that is his ceiling and the likelihood he actually hits that. Then the rankings trickle down with the idea that he isn't able to hit his ceiling, there is a B chance (60-75%) to be a 60 FV player (top-10 player at the position) because I find it more likely for him to be that in the NHL than what I believe his ceiling is. Again you can put it one step further and see that I believe the strongest chance of what he becomes in the league is a 55 A (1st line F).

Another example, Alexander Holtz (55 F):

55 F (1st line F, 24% of less chance) > 50 D (Top-6 F, 25-40% chance) > 45 C (2nd line F, 41-59%) > 40 B (3rd line F, 60-75%) > 35 A (bottom-6 F, 76% or better).

Meaning I think there's a small chance that he could be a first line player, but I also think his skills and abilities will at worst make him a decent to low-end 3rd liner.

View attachment 370046


Now if you were able to get through all that and still are interested, here are my rankings (you could probably convince me any guy in a tier is close enough to be ranked ahead of another):

View attachment 370053View attachment 370055View attachment 370056View attachment 370058

Thanks for the work! Interesting takes. I actually like Khusnutdinov and Reichel a lot as well.

 

[Morgs]

Thanks for the work! Interesting takes. I actually like Khusnutdinov and Reichel a lot as well.

Yeah they're two of my favourites and just high reward guys you could probably trade down and get closer to the end of the 1st round.

Reichel is ranked around 20 most places (which is 100% fair), but Khusnutdinov is just not in the 1st round anywhere and I don't understand it at all. He's likely to be a C at the NHL level (something there is almost nothing of in this draft). He's an absolute dog without the puck AND strong defensively in his own zone/neutral zone, he just never stops working. Not to mention the fact he's a ridiculously good playmaker, goes to the dirty areas, one of the stronger skaters, a zone entry wizard, AND he's one of the younger players in the draft. His weaknesses? Well he's not overly physical, and he's small- literally nothing in my eyes.

 

[KMNRB]

There seems to be a top 13.5 (the .5 being Lapierre has he is an unknown with his injuries). Hoping for two teams to go off the board so we can hopefully grab one of the players that slide.

Reading the Edmonton board, it seems that the team is inclined to take Guhle if he is available. Bob Stauffer can't stop talking about him, and last year he was right about Broberg. Wright also talked about the need to make the team tougher to play against. So they may indeed like Holloway too.

Typically defencemen and centers tend to get drafted higher than their ranking. So most likely one of the wingers will drop.

 

[cj19]

Blockbuster trade:

To Coyotes
Robertson
Sandin
Andersen
Johnsson
15 pick overall

To Leafs
Chychurun
Crouse
Dvorak
Kuemper
Merkley

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Blockbuster trade:

To Coyotes
Robertson
Sandin
Andersen
Johnsson
15 pick overall

To Leafs
Chychurun
Crouse
Dvorak
Kuemper
Merkley

 

[LeafChief]

Blockbuster trade:

To Coyotes
Robertson
Sandin
Andersen
Johnsson
15 pick overall

To Leafs
Chychurun
Crouse
Dvorak
Kuemper
Merkley

This is repulsive.

 

[supermann_98]

Blockbuster trade:

To Coyotes
Robertson
Sandin
Andersen
Johnsson
15 pick overall

To Leafs
Chychurun
Crouse
Dvorak
Kuemper
Merkley

Now that I've gone and puked reading this I'm back to tell you it's puke-worthy

 

[stickty111]

Blockbuster trade:

To Coyotes
Robertson
Sandin
Andersen
Johnsson
15 pick overall

To Leafs
Chychurun
Crouse
Dvorak
Kuemper
Merkley

We want to improve the team. This makes us much worse.

 

[cj19]

This is repulsive.

why... because you get the best young Dman in the deal or because you get the best goalie in the Deal? Or is it because you get the best young grit ,character two way forward in the deal (i.e Crouse) ??? or because you get Dvorak who has chemistry with Marner?

 

[HC7]

"he'll never succeed, look at Marner" might not be the strong point you envisioned.

He isn't half the player Marner is, and he also can't shoot was my point.

 

[stickty111]

why... because you get the best young Dman in the deal or because you get the best goalie in the Deal? Or is it because you get the best young grit ,character two way forward in the deal (i.e Crouse) ??? or because you get Dvorak who has chemistry with Marner?

Please don't tell me this is fair value for us. It's not.
Your trading 2 blue chips prospects, a high pick at 15, a top 9 forward, and an above average #1
For
Good top 4 d man
A 3rd line player
Decent at best forward
Slight upgrade in net
Prospect

Thats awful

 

[HC7]

why... because you get the best young Dman in the deal or because you get the best goalie in the Deal? Or is it because you get the best young grit ,character two way forward in the deal (i.e Crouse) ??? or because you get Dvorak who has chemistry with Marner?

Get some help.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Please don't tell me this is fair value for us. It's not.
Your trading 2 blue chips prospects, a high pick at 15, a top 9 forward, and an above average #1
For
Good top 4 d man
A 3rd line player
Decent at best forward
Slight upgrade in net
Prospect

Thats awful

I wouldn't even call Kuemper an upgrade in net. He had a nicer stretch of recent games, but Andersen's overall resume is much better and they are the same age more or less (Kuemper is like 5 months younger or something).

Also, I would argue Andersen has more value than Kuemper considering saving 2.5 mill in salary this year + 5.5 mill in salary next year is probably a lot more important to Arizona (and pretty much every other team in the NHL) than saving 500k in cap and getting an extra year of term is to us.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Blockbuster trade:

To Coyotes
Robertson
Sandin
Andersen
Johnsson
15 pick overall

To Leafs
Chychurun
Crouse
Dvorak
Kuemper
Merkley

Wrong thread, but my counter would be Johnsson, Engvall and Duszak for Kuemper, Fischer and Chaput... Or if they prefer, drop Engvall and Fischer.

They get a middle 6 winger with a nice contract signed for 3 more years, we get a guy who can be a 45-game tandem starter with Campbell. If we get Fischer, he is a simple but physical 4th liner with some upside at 23 years old. Arizona cuts some salary as well.

 

[LeafChief]

why... because you get the best young Dman in the deal or because you get the best goalie in the Deal? Or is it because you get the best young grit ,character two way forward in the deal (i.e Crouse) ??? or because you get Dvorak who has chemistry with Marner?

Brutal. The trade and your assessment. Trash.

 

[Morgs]

What did I miss, I have them blocked

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What did I miss, I have them blocked

Robertson, Sandin, Johnsson, Andersen and 15th overall for Chychrun, Crouse, Dvorak, Merkley and Kuemper.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Scoutch is terrible imo

I like him better than Button or Mccagg. You might not like his rankings but he does put in a lot of work and offers good analysis.

 

[Morgs]

Robertson, Sandin, Johnsson, Andersen and 15th overall for Chychrun, Crouse, Dvorak, Merkley and Kuemper.

Lmaoooooooooo

 

[Maplebeasts]

For D I definitely like Guhle and Schneider. However, I won't pretend to be a fan of the Prince Albert Raiders. Someone with more insight on here maybe....is Guhle able to play his right side even though he's a lefty? It just seems like big right handed D (who can actually play) are unicorns to come by. For that reason I lean a little more towards Schneider. The eye test for me, between the two, seems reasonable close. I maybe lean Schneider due strictly to handedness.
As far as forwards go who may be at 15, I like Quinn and Mercer. Quinn has great upside in my opinion, whereas Mercer to me is just a can't miss. Likely be a 2RW or 3RW low side. I see Mercer as a Tyler Toffoli imo.
And lastly, if Askarov is there at 15, I think you have to take him. Should be a future #1 for a long time.

Guhle is much better than Schneider. He's a terrific skater who along with Sanderson is the clear best shutdown Defenseman in the draft. His IQ is also very good, especially in transition defensively and in his own end. There is no reason to take Schneider over him except for handedness, which is a terrible reason to pick someone at 15.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Guhle is much better than Schneider. He's a terrific skater who along with Sanderson is the clear best shutdown Defenseman in the draft. His IQ is also very good, especially in transition defensively and in his own end. There is no reason to take Schneider over him except for handedness, which is a terrible reason to pick someone at 15.

I don't think Schneider is a Dubas type guy anyways. Extremely low ceiling, very safe, and not BPA.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Guhle is much better than Schneider. He's a terrific skater who along with Sanderson is the clear best shutdown Defenseman in the draft. His IQ is also very good, especially in transition defensively and in his own end. There is no reason to take Schneider over him except for handedness, which is a terrible reason to pick someone at 15.

I don't have Guhle nor Schneider as top 15 talents in most drafts, but I have Guhle in the top 15 of this draft while Schneider is more in the late teens range with Zary, Bourque, etc.

Mercer as well: Top 15 in this draft, but not in most drafts.

 

[TimeZone]

I don't think Schneider is a Dubas type guy anyways. Extremely low ceiling, very safe, and not BPA.

Yeah I can't see it either. Which is great, because I wouldn't touch him at 15.

 

[JSn0w93]

Yeah they're two of my favourites and just high reward guys you could probably trade down and get closer to the end of the 1st round.

Reichel is ranked around 20 most places (which is 100% fair), but Khusnutdinov is just not in the 1st round anywhere and I don't understand it at all. He's likely to be a C at the NHL level (something there is almost nothing of in this draft). He's an absolute dog without the puck AND strong defensively in his own zone/neutral zone, he just never stops working. Not to mention the fact he's a ridiculously good playmaker, goes to the dirty areas, one of the stronger skaters, a zone entry wizard, AND he's one of the younger players in the draft. His weaknesses? Well he's not overly physical, and he's small- literally nothing in my eyes.

Agreed, Khusnutdinov reminds me a little of Aho style wise, not a direct comparison to him becoming that level of player.

 

[Maplebeasts]

I don't have Guhle nor Schneider as top 15 talents in most drafts, but I have Guhle in the top 15 of this draft while Schneider is more in the late teens range with Zary, Bourque, etc.

Mercer as well: Top 15 in this draft, but not in most drafts.

I agree with Guhle and Schneider. As good as Guhle is defensively, taking down with raw games offensively is usually not a pick you make in the top 15. Mercer though is where we disagree a bit. I think Mercer is a top 15 talent in most drafts. He has great hands an underrated shot and is solid if unspectacular skater. He has a history of good production and has a very high ceiling if he can add another step. The only thing that scares me off of him a bit is his inability to dominate at international events.