Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[LaPlante94]

I disagree with a lot of his opinions, but he uses a lot of data and puts a ton of work into his videos.

He's become my favourite for draft prospect info in the last month because he's not one of those full on crazy analytic guys who will defend analytic friendly players no matter what. Scoutch isn't afraid to say these kinds of players aren't performing well enough if they aren't and he also knows that skill isn't the only thing that helps a teams success. That was my biggest problem about the analytics community early on.

 

[nobody]

I am not either.

I still get caught up on his shot. What is funny is that TSN gives his shot a 3/5, yet gave Seth Jarvis a 2.5/5. Jarvis has more goals in the 61 games of his rookie year in the WHL (16 goals) than Lapierre has had in two years in the QMJHL (68 games with 15 total goals).

Seth Jarvis followed that up with 42 goals in 58 games this year, yet he has one of the worst shooting rankings in the draft. Jack Quinn has a 5/5 shot because he put up 52 goals in 62 games on Ottawa (the best team in the CHL); Jarvis the by far the closest after that. Jarvis also had far less help on his team; he was the driver on Portland, while Quinn was getting fed by Rossi (and is a major late birthday who did not have a very inspiring year in 2018-2019).

Although I think we all know by now that TSN rankings suck. I mean they gave Robertson's shot a 3.5/5... And he turned out to be one of the best goal scorers in CHL history with an absolutely lethal shot less than a year later.

There's a difference in goals vs shooting ability. Mind you I haven't watched Jarvis or Quinn live, however just looking at the highlights, it appears that Jarvis' goals mostly come in tight on good dekes and slick hands in tight with a small mix of softish looking shots that find their way past the goalie. I don't remember seeing any of his goals on the highlight that were "snipes" or something that I'd label as a goal scorers goal. Quinn has more shooting goals, guy like Perrault does as well. Doesn't mean Jarvis won't be a goal scorer or won't put up numbers in the W or NHL someday but definitely his shot doesn't impress anywhere near as much as Quinn's does.

Also someone compared Jarvis to Panarin and I can see that comparison too. It was bothering me that he reminded me of someone but I couldn't put my finger on it. Jarvis does a lot of small little stick moves and stick handles with the puck and tends to be very flashy/ nonchalant. There were times in his highlight package where I thought to myself that I was watching Mitch Marner back in the day and thought to myself there's no way he's going to pull those moves in the NHL or there's no way he's going to deke through 3 guys and still randomly maintain possession of the puck. Jarvis is a good player and compared to his age group, his production was off the charts good and players like him will translate to the NHL and he probably will end up as a 50-60 point guy with potential to be a star and PPG+ offense. I mean, it's hard to pass up on a guy like that if he falls to us, especially looking at the uncertainty of the players around that spot right now. But I don't know if he's the type of player that really moves the needle for us. All in all, if he slips to us we thank the hockey gods and Dubas runs to the stage to steal him off the board. But I highly doubt he's dropping to us. Conversely, the juniors restarting again will be nice to see which guys jump off to hot starts over this weekend and see if we can find players that can separate themselves in this draft, specially around the mid-late teens. Hendrix Lapierre still scares me for the record. I still like Holloway for that slot.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He's become my favourite for draft prospect info in the last month because he's not one of those full on crazy analytic guys who will defend analytic friendly players no matter what. Scoutch isn't afraid to say these kinds of players aren't performing well enough if they aren't and he also knows that skill isn't the only thing that helps a teams success. That was my biggest problem about the analytics community early on.

I think the main issue is that the vast majority of the "analytics community" know absolutely nothing about analytics. They just think "Oh this guy has this stat, so therefore he is this" but lack understanding into context or what those analytics actually mean. It's no different than a few years ago when you saw guys who put up huge point totals and there were people who immediately thought they were great players.

The best ones are able to combine it with eye test, see trends, or at least have a thorough understanding of the analytics they are using.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

There's a difference in goals vs shooting ability. Mind you I haven't watched Jarvis or Quinn live, however just looking at the highlights, it appears that Jarvis' goals mostly come in tight on good dekes and slick hands in tight with a small mix of softish looking shots that find their way past the goalie. I don't remember seeing any of his goals on the highlight that were "snipes" or something that I'd label as a goal scorers goal. Quinn has more shooting goals, guy like Perrault does as well. Doesn't mean Jarvis won't be a goal scorer or won't put up numbers in the W or NHL someday but definitely his shot doesn't impress anywhere near as much as Quinn's does.

Also someone compared Jarvis to Panarin and I can see that comparison too. It was bothering me that he reminded me of someone but I couldn't put my finger on it. Jarvis does a lot of small little stick moves and stick handles with the puck and tends to be very flashy/ nonchalant. There were times in his highlight package where I thought to myself that I was watching Mitch Marner back in the day and thought to myself there's no way he's going to pull those moves in the NHL or there's no way he's going to deke through 3 guys and still randomly maintain possession of the puck. Jarvis is a good player and compared to his age group, his production was off the charts good and players like him will translate to the NHL and he probably will end up as a 50-60 point guy with potential to be a star and PPG+ offense. I mean, it's hard to pass up on a guy like that if he falls to us, especially looking at the uncertainty of the players around that spot right now. But I don't know if he's the type of player that really moves the needle for us. All in all, if he slips to us we thank the hockey gods and Dubas runs to the stage to steal him off the board. But I highly doubt he's dropping to us. Conversely, the juniors restarting again will be nice to see which guys jump off to hot starts over this weekend and see if we can find players that can separate themselves in this draft, specially around the mid-late teens. Hendrix Lapierre still scares me for the record. I still like Holloway for that slot.

Jarvis has a shot to back up those goals. Yes he is likely not a Robertson or Quinn type shooter, but he still has one of the better shots in this draft and certainly much better than Lapierre. He is the type of guy who can easily put up 30 goals in the NHL, if not even more if he can turn into another Point.

 

[TimeZone]

Jarvis, Amirov and Mercer are my top targets at 15.

Guhle, Holloway, Lapierre are some other guys I certainly wouldn't be upset with.

 

[KMNRB]

Lapierre has a couple notable things to work on, his shot and skating might both improve with just physical maturity and adding strength. He's a good skater technically, just not that explosive.

It's still hard for me to just shake off his Hlinka performance, him and Perfetti were by far the two best players in that tournament. I don't think picking him is without risk, but I think the pay off could be one of the best forwards in this age group.

Button discusses Lapierre in the Tracking the Draft Podcast. He said, while he's no medical expert, he wouldn't be worried about Lapierre's injury at all. He gave Crosby as an example of someone who had a similar issue with the neck (Crosby also sought 2nd opinion to understand that his issue was with the vertebrate rather than a concussion).

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Jarvis, Amirov and Mercer are my top targets at 15.

Guhle, Holloway, Lapierre are some other guys I certainly wouldn't be upset with.

I don't think Mercer has enough upside to warrant being picked in that spot.
If we are targeting a jack of all trades player, I would prefer to trade down a take Ridley Greig who plays a more important position and has more of an edge to his game.

 

[nobody]

Jarvis has a shot to back up those goals. Yes he is likely not a Robertson or Quinn type shooter, but he still has one of the better shots in this draft and certainly much better than Lapierre. He is the type of guy who can easily put up 30 goals in the NHL, if not even more if he can turn into another Point.

Depends on what your definition of "another point" is. Stylistically they could not be further apart. Jarvis' speed is okay. Point has tenacity, blazing speed and hands on top of hockey IQ. Jarvis has hands and pretty good hockey IQ. His speed and tenacity on the puck isn't anywhere near where Point was when he played in the CHL. Like the poster I quoted previously said, he reminds me a ton of Panarin. Panarin's game isn't north south. He really likes to weave in and out and uses his smarts heavily to make plays. Jarvis can be a successful and even potentially top notch NHL player but he's not going to be another point because of reasons listed above. Also, Jarvis is a winger and will be a winger. Point's speed allows him to play and blossom as a C.

 

[pylon17]

I'm with you on Guhle, I think he's the 3rd best defender in the draft by a comfortable margin.

Due to the shutdown this season and subsequent playoff cancellation, I think there will be a heavy emphasis on D-1 seasons. Guhle won the WHL title during a long run where he was used in a sheltered role learning behind more defensively oriented veterans (also excelled beside Drysdale at the u18s). This season they let the leash off and his offensive numbers more than doubled. He's being developed the exact way you would hope for a defensive D.

To find a 6'2" heavy, shutdown defender with elite skating in the mid-first is an absolute gift. These guys are typically gone in the top 10 and I get an inkling that Guhle will go top 12 - a few different outlets have been hinting at this as well recently. The only concerns with Guhle are his offensive creativity and breakout ability (overstated, but shown below), but his shot became a big weapon down the stretch and it's something he's using more comfortably now. Even if the rest of his offense doesn't translate, his slap shot will always be a weapon and his skating alone will make him a useful transitional player. This is also a player that passes the eye test with flying colours. I have no concerns with his "red flags".

Guhle's closer to Sanderson than he is Schneider, for me. He's also more raw than a lot of the other defenders in his range, despite his mature defensive game. If he can simplify his breakout passing, I think you're looking at a better skating Jake Muzzin with 5-10 goal potential from the backend.

I take that over a potential 50-60 point forward every single day (e.g. Zary, Mercer, Bourque, Gunler, etc.).

I'm expecting him off the board by 15.

 

[Stigma]

With Amirov's hot start at KHL and Lapierre's 4 pt game tonite, there are now 15 high potential players that I like more than others:

Lafreniere
Stutzle
Byfield
Askarov
Drysdale
Sanderson
Raymond
Lundell
Perfetti
Rossi
Quinn
Holtz
Jarvis
Amirov
Lapierre (assuming they are satisfied with his medical reports)

And it feels good that at least one of them will be available when the Leafs' turn come.

Maybe it's just our board's hype, but I'm more pumped than ever about the Leafs keeping this pick. With the potential of Lapierre and Amirov going higher and the good things I've heard about Guhle, Holloway, and Zary, I'm pretty sure we're going to get a great player at 15. I'm also going to bet that 3 to 4 of the guys above will be there at 15.

 

[Morgs]

I am not either.

I still get caught up on his shot. What is funny is that TSN gives his shot a 3/5, yet gave Seth Jarvis a 2.5/5. Jarvis has more goals in the 61 games of his rookie year in the WHL (16 goals) than Lapierre has had in two years in the QMJHL (68 games with 15 total goals).

Seth Jarvis followed that up with 42 goals in 58 games this year, yet he has one of the worst shooting rankings in the draft. Jack Quinn has a 5/5 shot because he put up 52 goals in 62 games on Ottawa (the best team in the CHL); Jarvis the by far the closest after that. Jarvis also had far less help on his team; he was the driver on Portland, while Quinn was getting fed by Rossi (and is a major late birthday who did not have a very inspiring year in 2018-2019).

Although I think we all know by now that TSN rankings suck. I mean they gave Robertson's shot a 3.5/5... And he turned out to be one of the best goal scorers in CHL history with an absolutely lethal shot less than a year later.

Yeah it doesn't make much sense.

Jarvis has a good shot, but he's obviously no Debrincat. The reason he scores so many goals is because he's so willing to go to the slot and shoot from there. ESPECIALLY in the 2nd half of last season.

 

[Schenn]

Does Jarvis give anyone else Barzal vibes? Obviously the difference is Jarvis is a RW.

 

[Northernguy10]

Personally I believe that Lapierre's shot isn't as big an issue as people are making it out to be...First of all there are a myriad of ways to score goals and if you watch a lot of games you'll see many goals are scored 'not' from a great shot...When I played at a lower level of hockey but still pretty good, we lost some excellent players (two of which became pretty good NHLers) after we won the All Ontario title...I had been a second line winger that year and was very much a playmaker with yes a "muffin shot)..I worked hard at A) deflecting shots, B) putting the puck up under the crossbar from in tight, C) quick accurate release D) kicking it up from my skate to my stick and getting rid of it in one motion...E) worked hard on my backhand shot...I always had quick hands so could score on dekes also...Add that to the many goals that deflect off sticks, legs, backsides etc and there are many ways to score goals...Also just the hardness of a shot can be improved much more easily than most other skills...I ended up one goal back of the league leader the following year so my point is after all that is that Lapierre's "muffin shot" doesn't worry me a bit if he puts the work in to improving it...Add that to his already impressive skills and we'd have a winner in my books.

 

[HC7]

Scoutch is terrible imo

 

[HC7]

If you can't shoot you're not going to succeed in the NHL.

Look what teams are doing to Marner these days and look how useless he was in the playoffs and on the PP. Teams are daring him to shoot and he wont.

 

[Nylander88]

For D I definitely like Guhle and Schneider. However, I won't pretend to be a fan of the Prince Albert Raiders. Someone with more insight on here maybe....is Guhle able to play his right side even though he's a lefty? It just seems like big right handed D (who can actually play) are unicorns to come by. For that reason I lean a little more towards Schneider. The eye test for me, between the two, seems reasonable close. I maybe lean Schneider due strictly to handedness.
As far as forwards go who may be at 15, I like Quinn and Mercer. Quinn has great upside in my opinion, whereas Mercer to me is just a can't miss. Likely be a 2RW or 3RW low side. I see Mercer as a Tyler Toffoli imo.
And lastly, if Askarov is there at 15, I think you have to take him. Should be a future #1 for a long time.

 

[Morgs]

Does Jarvis give anyone else Barzal vibes? Obviously the difference is Jarvis is a RW.

Not Barzal for me, Barzal is a full on elite playmaker & skater who doesn't shoot, where as Jarvis is a very good playmaker, very good skater, & goes to the dirty areas to score with his above average shot.

Jarvis gives me Willy vibes except with the desire to hit people.

 

[nuck]

Does Jarvis give anyone else Barzal vibes? Obviously the difference is Jarvis is a RW.

By the numbers Lapierre is a lot more like Barzal. WHL Barzal was an injury prone extreme past first guy who would have needed two seasons to match Jarvis draft year scoring. Where are you seeing the similarity, mostly the speed?

 

[HC7]

For D I definitely like Guhle and Schneider. However, I won't pretend to be a fan of the Prince Albert Raiders. Someone with more insight on here maybe....is Guhle able to play his right side even though he's a lefty? It just seems like big right handed D (who can actually play) are unicorns to come by. For that reason I lean a little more towards Schneider. The eye test for me, between the two, seems reasonable close. I maybe lean Schneider due strictly to handedness.
As far as forwards go who may be at 15, I like Quinn and Mercer. Quinn has great upside in my opinion, whereas Mercer to me is just a can't miss. Likely be a 2RW or 3RW low side. I see Mercer as a Tyler Toffoli imo.
And lastly, if Askarov is there at 15, I think you have to take him. Should be a future #1 for a long time.

Big right handed D who can actually play are unicorns, Schneider however is not a unicorn.

His skating isn't great despite what people say. He's terrible under pressure and half the time he goes back for the puck and is being forechecked he pins it against the boards. His IQ isn't anything special. His defensive play overrated, and his offensive game is a work in progress.

When I look at him there's nothing that says he should be a 1st round pick besides his size, position, and handedness. The player himself doesn't scream NHL top 4 D to me. He's a shitty version of Cal Foote who hasn't panned out as well as Tampa would've hoped by now.

Guhle on the other hand is one of the best skaters in the draft. By all accounts he's a gym rat and one of the most fit/athletic players in the draft. Unlike Schneider he has a mean streak to his game. His defensive game is far better than Schneiders and is up there with Sanderson. Most of his struggles are patience issues with the puck which I think will come with confidence. He can skate around forwards with ease and once he gets comfortable with that watch out.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

Schneider was a well regarded prospect his entire junior career, I've never heard people (mostly armchair scouts and fans) be so negative about him until he became talked about as a potential Leafs pick. Some people genuinely think they are good scouts on here, it's always very funny.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

If you can't shoot you're not going to succeed in the NHL.

Look what teams are doing to Marner these days and look how useless he was in the playoffs and on the PP. Teams are daring him to shoot and he wont.

good point, I would hate to pick up a failure like Marner at #15

 

[Morgs]

So first of all I'm going to explain how I ranked my top-62 guys in the draft. I used the baseball 20-80 FV scale (or I guess how Pronman does it in hockey) but I obviously tweaked it to what I have below instead of rating their skills individually like Pronman does. It's extremely arbitrary due to the fact that players can have all sorts of impacts on an average season, but the idea behind it was to predict what I felt was the players ceiling by using a FV number and then using a letter to show how likely I feel the player was to actually hit that ceiling.

For example, with a guy like Lafreniere (I have him as a 65 C): That means I believe he has the potential to be a Top-5 LW in the NHL at around a 41-59% probability (the probabilities are completely made up based on gut feel), but the idea behind my rankings is that is his ceiling and the likelihood he actually hits that. Then the rankings trickle down with the idea that he isn't able to hit his ceiling, there is a B chance (60-75%) to be a 60 FV player (top-10 player at the position) because I find it more likely for him to be that in the NHL than what I believe his ceiling is. Again you can put it one step further and see that I believe the strongest chance of what he becomes in the league is a 55 A (1st line F).

Another example, Alexander Holtz (55 F):

55 F (1st line F, 24% of less chance) > 50 D (Top-6 F, 25-40% chance) > 45 C (2nd line F, 41-59%) > 40 B (3rd line F, 60-75%) > 35 A (bottom-6 F, 76% or better).

Meaning I think there's a small chance that he could be a first line player, but I also think his skills and abilities will at worst make him a decent to low-end 3rd liner.

Now if you were able to get through all that and still are interested, here are my rankings (you could probably convince me any guy in a tier is close enough to be ranked ahead of another):

 

[LeafChief]

There seems to be a top 13.5 (the .5 being Lapierre has he is an unknown with his injuries). Hoping for two teams to go off the board so we can hopefully grab one of the players that slide.

 

[TheDoldrums]

If you can't shoot you're not going to succeed in the NHL.

Look what teams are doing to Marner these days and look how useless he was in the playoffs and on the PP. Teams are daring him to shoot and he wont.

"he'll never succeed, look at Marner" might not be the strong point you envisioned.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Maybe it's just our board's hype, but I'm more pumped than ever about the Leafs keeping this pick. With the potential of Lapierre and Amirov going higher and the good things I've heard about Guhle, Holloway, and Zary, I'm pretty sure we're going to get a great player at 15. I'm also going to bet that 3 to 4 of the guys above will be there at 15.

I'm with you. Honestly I'm fairly positive on most of the guys being discussed around our spot. And given the past couple of drafts, I'm pretty confident we'll make a good decision with those options.

The only way I can see myself getting angry is if Jarvis is there and we pass, but I don't think either of those is very likely.