Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[stickty111]

 

[Brobust]

Saw a couple of places list Seth Jarvis in our range.

What's the deal with him?

 

[LaPlante94]

Saw a couple of places list Seth Jarvis in our range.

What's the deal with him?

I'm not saying he'll end up as good as this guy and maybe I'm crazy for thinking this, but I get Panarin vibes from him in terms of play style. That's probably why I like him more than most because Panarin is one of my favourites in the league. They aren't the biggest or the smallest but they aren't afraid to get dirty and they can beat you with their speed, shot and playmaking abilities pretty easily.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Lapierre with a goal now, up to 3 points in this game. He might go higher than expected

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Lapierre looking no worse for where after his injury issues.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Lukas Cormier with a goal and an assist in Charlottetown's first win. He had 7 points in 3 preseason games. FYI, he is a defenseman and I have him rated in my top 25.

Ryan Francis with an assist in Cape Breton's loss.

Jeremie Poirier with 2 assists in Saint John's collapse today.

Dawson Mercer with 2 goals; Hendrix Lapierre with a goal and 2 assists.

Xavier Simoneau with a goal; William Dufour and Jacob Dion each with an assist.

Yaroslav Likhachyov with a goal and an assist.

 

[Knies iT]

If Guhle is still on the board I hope we take him. He's a guy that actual scouts know he's a real elite prospect, and is a top pairing guy on any team he plays. Wheeler, Pronman etc can't rank him properly because most of them just use analytics, which sells Guhle short.

Let me preface this by saying look at Sandin and Robertson. Our 2 best prospects and there's something they have in common. They both dominated on the international stage when playing with their respective age group. Sandin was the best player at the WJC-20, and Robertson was one of the best forwards on USA. I think what you do on that stage is as good of an indicator of what is to come as any. When I look at a prospect what they do in the CHL/USNDTP/Europe is important no doubt, but the international tourneys and CHL showcase mean a lot to me. When everything is equal, who stands out?

With that said the high end guys that deliver on the big stage (Hlinka, WJC, CHL Showcase) that are around the Leafs pick are as follows...

1. Guhle - Top pairing guy that plays in every situation. There's a reason why him and Drysdale anchored Canada's D at the Hlinka. There's a reason he was a top pairing guy on the winning team at the CHL showcase. There's a reason why he's the #1 guy on a WHL team that had the least amount of goals against this year. Guhle is a 30 minute a night guy that plays against the best players and excels. He might never score 40+ points, but he's going to make up for it and more with all the goals he prevents. You don't want to play against him in a playoff series.

2. Jarvis - He's a player that puts up big numbers in the WHL, but just as importantly at the Hlinka and WJC-18 he continued to be a key contributor on the Canadian roster. Can't go wrong with a skilled player like Jarvis. He'll probably end up being a 60-70 offensive winger in the mold of Marner. My only issue with him is I don't think he moves the needle as much as a Guhle would in a playoff series. Jarvis can affect a playoff series, but if a player like Guhle pans out he's going to change a playoff series.

3. Zary - One of the older guys in the draft and it shows. He's really polished and his only slight downside is his skating. Put up big numbers in the WHL, took over the CHL showcase game, and was one of the big guns at the WJC-18 despite being a draft year younger than most of the team. He's the complete package, and doesn't play small unlike a lot of other players going in our range. When it comes playoff time he's someone you want on your team. He's a gamer.

I'm with you on Guhle, I think he's the 3rd best defender in the draft by a comfortable margin.

Due to the shutdown this season and subsequent playoff cancellation, I think there will be a heavy emphasis on D-1 seasons. Guhle won the WHL title during a long run where he was used in a sheltered role learning behind more defensively oriented veterans (also excelled beside Drysdale at the u18s). This season they let the leash off and his offensive numbers more than doubled. He's being developed the exact way you would hope for a defensive D.

To find a 6'2" heavy, shutdown defender with elite skating in the mid-first is an absolute gift. These guys are typically gone in the top 10 and I get an inkling that Guhle will go top 12 - a few different outlets have been hinting at this as well recently. The only concerns with Guhle are his offensive creativity and breakout ability (overstated, but shown below), but his shot became a big weapon down the stretch and it's something he's using more comfortably now. Even if the rest of his offense doesn't translate, his slap shot will always be a weapon and his skating alone will make him a useful transitional player. This is also a player that passes the eye test with flying colours. I have no concerns with his "red flags".

Guhle's closer to Sanderson than he is Schneider, for me. He's also more raw than a lot of the other defenders in his range, despite his mature defensive game. If he can simplify his breakout passing, I think you're looking at a better skating Jake Muzzin with 5-10 goal potential from the backend.

I take that over a potential 50-60 point forward every single day (e.g. Zary, Mercer, Bourque, Gunler, etc.).

 

[KMNRB]

Lapierre with a goal now, up to 3 points in this game. He might go higher than expected

Added an empty netter
2 goals 2 assists
4 pt night

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Added an empty netter
2 goals 2 assists
4 pt night

This coupled with his pre-season has to help his draft stock significantly.

 

[nuck]

Lapierre with a goal now, up to 3 points in this game. He might go higher than expected

I think he could go ahead of Mercer but still closer to 20 than 15. There is a fall off between these two and guys like Jarvis or Lundell. I could even see Guhle before Mercer/Quinn/Lapierre. The 15-20 seem somewhat interchangeable although someone like Amirov could sneak into the top 12.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Added an empty netter
2 goals 2 assists
4 pt night

he's already matched his previous season's goal output. Pretty impressive game + preseason showing from him. if our doctors decide he's healthy, he might be work taking at #15 depending on who else is available

 

[HC7]

I'm with you on Guhle, I think he's the 3rd best defender in the draft by a comfortable margin.

Due to the shutdown this season and subsequent playoff cancellation, I think there will be a heavy emphasis on D-1 seasons. Guhle won the WHL title during a long run where he was used in a sheltered role learning behind more defensively oriented veterans (also excelled beside Drysdale at the u18s). This season they let the leash off and his offensive numbers more than doubled. He's being developed the exact way you would hope for a defensive D.

To find a 6'2" heavy, shutdown defender with elite skating in the mid-first is an absolute gift. These guys are typically gone in the top 10 and I get an inkling that Guhle will go top 12 - a few different outlets have been hinting at this as well recently. The only concerns with Guhle are his offensive creativity and breakout ability (overstated, but shown below), but his shot became a big weapon down the stretch and it's something he's using more comfortably now. Even if the rest of his offense doesn't translate, his slap shot will always be a weapon and his skating alone will make him a useful transitional player. This is also a player that passes the eye test with flying colours. I have no concerns with his "red flags".

Guhle's closer to Sanderson than he is Schneider, for me. He's also more raw than a lot of the other defenders in his range, despite his mature defensive game. If he can simplify his breakout passing, I think you're looking at a better skating Jake Muzzin with 5-10 goal potential from the backend.

I take that over a potential 50-60 point forward every single day (e.g. Zary, Mercer, Bourque, Gunler, etc.).

Agreed entirely except he'll be more than a 5 goal guy. I'd say between 10-20. If he makes it to our pick and we skip I think we're going to regret it for a long time.

 

[nuck]

This coupled with his pre-season has to help his draft stock significantly.

A lot of pressure on the Habs maybe if the Leafs don't snake him

 

[Green Snow Storm]

A lot of pressure on the Habs maybe if the Leafs don't snake him

Hahah I was going to say I feel the Habs might be highly interested in him as well. I'm sure we've done our homework on him, and I wouldn't be disappointed with him.

 

[VanW27]

Schneider only makes sense if we trade back. I rather not reach at 15. Get more assets if your looking to pick Schnieder.

In what way is he a reach? Hes rated right around our pick.

If you look at MacKenzies final list he's ranked higher (17) than Jarvis (18), Amirov (19), and Zary (22) who are 3 of the main guys people are talking about wanting at 15.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I'm with you on Guhle, I think he's the 3rd best defender in the draft by a comfortable margin.

Due to the shutdown this season and subsequent playoff cancellation, I think there will be a heavy emphasis on D-1 seasons. Guhle won the WHL title during a long run where he was used in a sheltered role learning behind more defensively oriented veterans (also excelled beside Drysdale at the u18s). This season they let the leash off and his offensive numbers more than doubled. He's being developed the exact way you would hope for a defensive D.

To find a 6'2" heavy, shutdown defender with elite skating in the mid-first is an absolute gift. These guys are typically gone in the top 10 and I get an inkling that Guhle will go top 12 - a few different outlets have been hinting at this as well recently. The only concerns with Guhle are his offensive creativity and breakout ability (overstated, but shown below), but his shot became a big weapon down the stretch and it's something he's using more comfortably now. Even if the rest of his offense doesn't translate, his slap shot will always be a weapon and his skating alone will make him a useful transitional player. This is also a player that passes the eye test with flying colours. I have no concerns with his "red flags".

Guhle's closer to Sanderson than he is Schneider, for me. He's also more raw than a lot of the other defenders in his range, despite his mature defensive game. If he can simplify his breakout passing, I think you're looking at a better skating Jake Muzzin with 5-10 goal potential from the backend.

I take that over a potential 50-60 point forward every single day (e.g. Zary, Mercer, Bourque, Gunler, etc.).

I really like Guhle too. I can see him being a player along the lines of a Parayko or Carlo, a big, physical defenseman who is a very good skater.

 

[stickty111]

In what way is he a reach? Hes rated right around our pick.

If you look at MacKenzies final list he's ranked higher (17) than Jarvis (18), Amirov (19), and Zary (22) who are 3 of the main guys people are talking about wanting at 15.

Most of the others have him rated lower. I'm almost convinced we aren't taking him at 15, and nor should we, so it doesn't matter.

 

[Morgs]

This is exactly what Lapierre needs to do to get him back into legit prospect status.

I probably wont move him into my top-25 come draft day and it will look real bad on me I'm sure.

 

[KMNRB]

With Amirov's hot start at KHL and Lapierre's 4 pt game tonite, there are now 15 high potential players that I like more than others:

Lafreniere
Stutzle
Byfield
Askarov
Drysdale
Sanderson
Raymond
Lundell
Perfetti
Rossi
Quinn
Holtz
Jarvis
Amirov
Lapierre (assuming they are satisfied with his medical reports)

And it feels good that at least one of them will be available when the Leafs' turn come.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

With Amirov's hot start at KHL and Lapierre's 4 pt game tonite, there are now 15 high potential players that I like more than others:

Lafreniere
Stutzle
Byfield
Askarov
Drysdale
Sanderson
Raymond
Lundell
Perfetti
Rossi
Quinn
Holtz
Jarvis
Amirov
Lapierre (assuming they are satisfied with his medical reports)

And it feels good that at least one of them will be available when the Leafs' turn come.

I would still trade down if Jarvis or higher is not there.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This is exactly what Lapierre needs to do to get him back into legit prospect status.

I probably wont move him into my top-25 come draft day and it will look real bad on me I'm sure.

I am not either.

I still get caught up on his shot. What is funny is that TSN gives his shot a 3/5, yet gave Seth Jarvis a 2.5/5. Jarvis has more goals in the 61 games of his rookie year in the WHL (16 goals) than Lapierre has had in two years in the QMJHL (68 games with 15 total goals).

Seth Jarvis followed that up with 42 goals in 58 games this year, yet he has one of the worst shooting rankings in the draft. Jack Quinn has a 5/5 shot because he put up 52 goals in 62 games on Ottawa (the best team in the CHL); Jarvis the by far the closest after that. Jarvis also had far less help on his team; he was the driver on Portland, while Quinn was getting fed by Rossi (and is a major late birthday who did not have a very inspiring year in 2018-2019).

Although I think we all know by now that TSN rankings suck. I mean they gave Robertson's shot a 3.5/5... And he turned out to be one of the best goal scorers in CHL history with an absolutely lethal shot less than a year later.

 

[Northernguy10]

For those that are into Scouching's Draft Rankings here is today's final rankings...He has 6 tiers and talks about a few prospects in each tier...there's also a link in there to his total list...He isn't overly high on my two guys (Lapierre and Zary) and prefers Wallinder over Schneider and Guhle...Not big on Mercer or Brisson...Loves Amirov...Likes Bourque...All I can remember from the whole 38 minutes ... He seems to have his own ranking system and most of it's over my head but here it is if you have 40 minutes to spare and are interested...

 

[Green Snow Storm]

For those that are into Scouching's Draft Rankings here is today's final rankings...He has 6 tiers and talks about a few prospects in each tier...there's also a link in there to his total list...He isn't overly high on my two guys (Lapierre and Zary) and prefers Wallinder over Schneider and Guhle...Not big on Mercer or Brisson...Loves Amirov...Likes Bourque...All I can remember from the whole 38 minutes ... He seems to have his own ranking system and most of it's over my head but here it is if you have 40 minutes to spare and are interested...

I disagree with a lot of his opinions, but he uses a lot of data and puts a ton of work into his videos.

 

[Northernguy10]

I disagree with a lot of his opinions, but he uses a lot of data and puts a ton of work into his videos.

I've only heard about him recently but it seems a few people like his work so I thought I'd put it out there...As I said most of it is over my head but I'll stick with Lapierre and Zary and recently have added Amirov to my hopefuls at our pick pending Lapierre's medical fitness.

 

[Green Snow Storm]

Lapierre has a couple notable things to work on, his shot and skating might both improve with just physical maturity and adding strength. He's a good skater technically, just not that explosive.

It's still hard for me to just shake off his Hlinka performance, him and Perfetti were by far the two best players in that tournament. I don't think picking him is without risk, but I think the pay off could be one of the best forwards in this age group.