GDT: NHL draft lottery

[Reaper45]

5th- Alex Turcotte
24th- Bobby Brink
33rd- Nolan Foote

Would be ideal.

 

[AzKing]

I thought that this was interesting. I was looking at the final CSN Rankings for NA Skaters over the last 10 years and it seems like the #2 guy usually ends up being more than just legit in the NHL. If you had these odds in Vegas, you most likely would bet largely on a win if you go just by this list.

2018 Brady Tkachuk
2017 Nico Hischier
2016 Matthew Tkachuk
2015 Jack Eichel
2014 Aaron Ekblad
2013 Nathan MacKinnon
2012 Ryan Murray
2011 Gabriel Landeskog
2010 Taylor Hall
2009 Matt Duchene

Barring a change, the #2 ranked player in the CSN for NA Skaters is Kirby Dach.

It's almost like you could take a blind, deaf, mute and give him the cards for the #1 or #2 ranked NA Skater in each hand and when it comes time to pick, tap the hand of the guy who is available and have him turn it in and they will get a pick who is a 1st line player. The one weird year is 2012 and that whole draft was odd.

 

[Reaper45]

Gross.

Yeah it looks bad.

 

[FrozenKing18]

Just saw the results. So much for getting Kakko

 

[KingsFan7824]

I usually agree with you, but the chance at drafting a potentially franchise altering player is really not the same as a ref blowing a call.

The current system is wildly chaotic. A team should not be able to jump nine spots into the top three based purely on RNG. That’s just ridiculous.

They need to increase the odds of the bottom five teams. Or get rid of the system altogether and go back to a lottery for the first overall alone.

Ask Toronto fans. They're still not over it. We even keep a light on for Montreal because they may have cheated.

I just mean in general, it's done. Losing more games didn't guarantee the Kings anything other than not falling further in case they lost the lottery. We knew what the chances were of them getting a top pick. It sucks, but they can still get a good talent that they'll need down the line anyway.

Lombardi reached on Hickey before he had Doughty. Don't try to be smarter than everyone. Vilardi is probably done, so just pick the guy you should pick. You should be able to get something good at 5, unless the draft as a whole ends up sucking.

Gaudreau - 104th
Monahan - 6th
Lindholm - 5th
Tkachuk - 6th
Giordano - undrafted

There's your top team in the West.

 

[kovacro]

Recent history of 5th overall picks.

2018 Barrett Hayton
2017 Elias Pettersson
2016 Olli Juolevi
2015 Noah Hanifin
2013 Elias Lindholm
2012 Morgan Rielly
2011 Ryan Strome
2010 Nino Niederreiter
2009 Brayden Schenn
2008 Luke Schenn
2007 Karl Alzner
2006 Phil Kessel
2005 Carey Price
2004 Blake Wheeler
2003 Thomas Vanek
2002 Ryan Whitney
2001 Stanislav Chistov
2000 Raffi Torres

There are some real good players on that list (bolded) if we go by the last 15 drafts. Not sure what people are expecting at 5.

I think Niederreiter could really thrive in Carolina going forward. Right situation, right time for him.

Also think Juolevi will be a solid piece on the backend for Vancouver. He'll be a top 4 guy and potentially a 1st pairing dman.

Hanafin is only 22. Never been a big point producer. He's been fine this year in Calgary and will settle in there as a top 4 guy who can play both on the PP and PK. No way you can write him off.

Say what you want about Schenn but, since he's been with the Blues he has been very good. Got slowed by the injury bug this year or he would have been close to his 70 point season the previous year.

Can't comment on Hayton obviously. Got to see a few years in the show first. Excellent junior player.

 

[KopitarFAN]

Mock draft: Dach, Cozens, Podkolzin under consideration at No. 3

This would be interesting........

 

[Little Psycho]

 

[RocketKing]

I see a lot to like about Kirby Dach, a pretty good skater unlike you would expect for someone growing into that frame, and he'll be a brick **** house when he's done developing.

Here's a shift by shift from earlier this season:

seems like he could be a David Backus type of center.

there’s a good amount of Byram film there on that video as well.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Mock draft: Dach, Cozens, Podkolzin under consideration at No. 3

This would be interesting........

Said this a couple of days ago. Yes the Kings have troubles with scoring but our depth at defense is more thin.

Both ‘experts’ also think they might draft Byram. It would not surprise me if he goes straight to the NHL.

 

[bouncesonly]

I guess NJ's GDT anti-tank policy brought them good karma, unlike Kings fan praising the tank

 

[Butch 19]

We have three picks in the top 33.

You think Blake feels the pressure RIGHT now?!?

He needs to do better in the first round than Lombardi ever did.

 

[KingsHockey24]

You think Blake feels the pressure RIGHT now?!?

He needs to do better in the first round that Lombardi ever did.

Our prospect pool is going to be loaded.

Kupari, Thomas, JAD, Clague, Vilardi, and then the three early picks.

 

[Butch 19]

6. Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP, 5-foot-11, 189 pounds: The best projected two-way game in this draft class. Has been hampered by injuries.

Not another one... pass

 

[fsanford]

5th- Alex Turcotte
24th- Bobby Brink
33rd- Nolan Foote

His injuries are of the hip variety? Hip issues and skating are not complimentary items.

 

[SettlementRichie10]

Ask Toronto fans. They're still not over it. We even keep a light on for Montreal because they may have cheated.

I just mean in general, it's done. Losing more games didn't guarantee the Kings anything other than not falling further in case they lost the lottery. We knew what the chances were of them getting a top pick. It sucks, but they can still get a good talent that they'll need down the line anyway.

Lombardi reached on Hickey before he had Doughty. Don't try to be smarter than everyone. Vilardi is probably done, so just pick the guy you should pick. You should be able to get something good at 5, unless the draft as a whole ends up sucking.

Gaudreau - 104th
Monahan - 6th
Lindholm - 5th
Tkachuk - 6th
Giordano - undrafted

There's your top team in the West.

I get that. It’s done, sure. But that doesn’t make the current lottery system any less broken and reliant on RNG.

By leaving things up to this much luck, you’re just asking for a situation where a team in the twilight of their prime suddenly drafts a superstar and are vaulted right back up to the top. It would have been like the Kings winning the Mcdavid lottery in 2015.

Is that fair? I don’t know. But I think the league shouldn’t leave things up to so much luck. It’s fine if they want to hold a lottery for the 1st overall, but leave the rest of the picks alone.

Keep this in mind: under the current rules, there’s a good chance we would have never drafted Doughty at #2 in 2008.

No one loses the Stanley Cup on one blown call. Toronto had an entire seven game series to ensure the missed Gretzky high stick never matters. Seven game series are the ultimate equalizer. If you lose a series on one bad call, you don’t deserve to win, anyway. There’s so much within your control throughout a seven game series.

But drafting Luke Schenn instead of Drew Doughty because of a bad luck lottery? That can sink entire franchises for multiple decades.

I’m not saying we should have tanked more or anything like that. I’m saying the current lottery system is terribly designed, and will likely be changed again within the next few years because of it.

 

[SFKingshomer]

If we don't take Byram then we need to trade up and grab this guy...

 

[kingsholygrail]

We keep including Vilardi in this pool. He's not even part of the future in his current state. It's better to speculate assuming Vilardi never plays in a Kings uniform because he's closer to that than being a sure thing.

 

[LAKings88]

Seems like Chicago and Colorado fans both want Byram.

Podkolzin is really the wildcard this year.

I do think he’ll slide.

It’ll probably come down to Dach or Cozens.

 

[saintsnsoldiers]

Seems like Chicago and Colorado fans both want Byram.

Podkolzin is really the wildcard this year.

I do think he’ll slide.

It’ll probably come down to Dach or Cozens.

If it comes down to Dach, Cozen and if Pod is still there, I think Id take a chance with Pod

 

[Ray Martyniuk]

I'm just gonna assume we pick 4th, in which case I like Byram.

LA takes Byram unless Colorado beats us to him then Turcotte!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Ask Toronto fans. They're still not over it. We even keep a light on for Montreal because they may have cheated.

I just mean in general, it's done. Losing more games didn't guarantee the Kings anything other than not falling further in case they lost the lottery. We knew what the chances were of them getting a top pick. It sucks, but they can still get a good talent that they'll need down the line anyway.

Lombardi reached on Hickey before he had Doughty. Don't try to be smarter than everyone. Vilardi is probably done, so just pick the guy you should pick. You should be able to get something good at 5, unless the draft as a whole ends up sucking.

Gaudreau - 104th
Monahan - 6th
Lindholm - 5th
Tkachuk - 6th
Giordano - undrafted

There's your top team in the West.

Here's what sucks about the current system: we got punished more than anyone else and as much as any team CAN get punished in the lotto.

Have the 10th pick? Great. You're at worst 11th, with the opportunity to strike gold.

Finish just outside the playoffs? Sorry about the black hole, here's a 3rd overall pick.

Have an abysmal season, and a team in desperate need of transformation? You have far greater odds of falling than rising.

For the really bad teams, 31st-29th places, the lottery stands a much greater chance of bringing heartbreak than solutions. That's problematic. And I get why it is the way it is and I applaud the idea, but something's gotta give.

 

[Little Psycho]

Fourth...

Fifth...

 

[cyclones22]

Here's what sucks about the current system: we got punished more than anyone else and as much as any team CAN get punished in the lotto.

Have the 10th pick? Great. You're at worst 11th, with the opportunity to strike gold.

Finish just outside the playoffs? Sorry about the black hole, here's a 3rd overall pick.

Have an abysmal season, and a team in desperate need of transformation? You have far greater odds of falling than rising.

For the really bad teams, 31st-29th places, the lottery stands a much greater chance of bringing heartbreak than solutions. That's problematic. And I get why it is the way it is and I applaud the idea, but something's gotta give.

Right. The idea behind it isn't bad. The execution however...the league went way too far, which is utterly predictable. It'll change to somewhere in between eventually. By that time, I hope we no longer care. They could've just legislated, you win the lotto, you're outside the top 3 for the next 2 seasons or something. The odds were greatest that the Kings would drop to 5th from 2nd and that's exactly what happened. It's unfortunate because the Kings aren't perennial tankers. First absolute abomination of a season in 10 years and that's the result.

 

[deeshamrock]

Here's what sucks about the current system: we got punished more than anyone else and as much as any team CAN get punished in the lotto.

Have the 10th pick? Great. You're at worst 11th, with the opportunity to strike gold.

Finish just outside the playoffs? Sorry about the black hole, here's a 3rd overall pick.

Have an abysmal season, and a team in desperate need of transformation? You have far greater odds of falling than rising.

For the really bad teams, 31st-29th places, the lottery stands a much greater chance of bringing heartbreak than solutions. That's problematic. And I get why it is the way it is and I applaud the idea, but something's gotta give.

They had to make a change, but they went too far. You can't reward a team that finishes a few points out of the playoffs with a top 3 pick. And a team that moves up 2x in 3 yrs to #1, that should never happen. The lottery should be for half of the remaining teams or less , 6 perhaps. And if you move up to #1, then you can' t finish higher than 4 in the next 3 yrs. They have to alter this current system, make some changes.