NHL.com Trophy Tracker - Hart Trophy

[Frosty415]

McDavid, Huberdeau, Gaudreau, Shesterkin, Josi and Draisaitl all are having seasons that are more Hart worthy than Matthews. He has absolutely no chance to win it unless he closes the gap significantly.

When was the last time someone won the Hart while being 15+ points behind from first?

Idk how Matthews is even in this conversation, leafs are a good team without him

 

[hockeyisgud]

well voters are getting smarter so they don't just sort forwards by points anymore, sorry to tell you Matthews incredible underlying numbers are still going to get a lot of traction

Or maybe they just got picked last for kickball and want to stick it to the kind of guy who shoved them in a locker. Why do the Leafs have such a great record over a large sample size when Matthews is out? Is every single thing about Matthews just unlucky? I mean, I'm a stats guy so it could be true but come on.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

well voters are getting smarter so they don't just sort forwards by points anymore, sorry to tell you Matthews incredible underlying numbers are still going to get a lot of traction

I mean, what are you even basing that on? 6 of the past 8 Hart winners also won the Art Ross that year, with Taylor Hall and Carey Price being the exceptions. Remove Price from that and only Hall won the Hart as a position player without being the top scorer in the league.

 

[hockeyisgud]

I mean, what are you even basing that on? 6 of the past 8 Hart winners also won the Art Ross that year, with Taylor Hall and Carey Price being the exceptions. Remove Price from that and only Hall won the Hart as a position player without being the top scorer in the league.

Hall also had 41 more points than his closest teammate that year.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I mean, what are you even basing that on? 6 of the past 8 Hart winners also won the Art Ross that year, with Taylor Hall and Carey Price being the exceptions. Remove Price from that and only Hall won the Hart as a position player without being the top scorer in the league.

basing it on the passage of time, every year the PHWA adds members and new members are more likely to be cognizant and/or swayed by data. 8 years ago is a lifetime in terms of how hockey journalism has progressed tbh

Last year McDavid was clearly the best player regardless of him winning the Art Ross. This year it's definitely less clear so it will be interesting for sure.

 

[5cotland]

Trash defense? Come on lol.

Bro our defense has been absolutely brutal so many times this season.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

basing it on the passage of time, every year the PHWA adds members and new members are more likely to be cognizant and/or swayed by data. 8 years ago is a lifetime in terms of how hockey journalism has progressed tbh

Last year McDavid was clearly the best player regardless of him winning the Art Ross. This year it's definitely less clear so it will be interesting for sure.

Right, but you said that voters no longer just sort by points because they've "gotten smarter". There's actually no evidence to suggest that's the case, even if you only want to use the past 3 seasons. I mean, Draisaitl won the Hart only 2 seasons ago despite having relatively poor underlying numbers (compared to the other finalists), largely because he ran away with the scoring race.

Just because the odd voter like that Dom guy will base his entire voting card on who has the best GSVA and nothing else, doesn't mean that's widespread among the majority of voters. If it was, you'd have seen many more "analytics darlings" winning the Hart versus "raw point total darlings".

 

[TheDoldrums]

Right, but you said that voters no longer just sort by points because they've "gotten smarter". There's actually no evidence to suggest that's the case, even if you only want to use the past 3 seasons. I mean, Draisaitl won the Hart only 2 seasons ago despite having relatively poor underlying numbers (compared to the other finalists), largely because he ran away with the scoring race.

Just because the odd voter like that Dom guy will base his entire voting card on who has the best GSVA and nothing else, doesn't mean that's widespread among the majority of voters. If it was, you'd have seen many more "analytics darlings" winning the Hart versus "raw point total darlings".

Things move fast. In baseball I remember Bartolo Colon winning the Cy Young because he won 21 games, while the outnumbered analytical writers argued against him and the nature of baseball wins. For so many years wins was the biggest metric voters based their judgments on. Then 5 years later Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young going 13-12, wins weren't a factor.

Given the amount of writers added in the past few years, it's very possible Drai has a tougher time claiming the award if it was done this season. To me the evidence is the narrative the media had been touting. Even when Matthews wasn't particularly close to the Art Ross, a lot of media were framing it as Matthews vs. Shesterkin. As I said, McDavid was the analytics darling last year. This year it's Matthews. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm betting he finishes a lot higher than people here seem to expect.

 

[Sweetpotato]

To me, if Matthews McDavid and Huberdeau are all close in points, it's the guy way out ahead in goals.

McDavid could make that interesting down the stretch re: points and I'm open to arguments for Shesterkin but I don't see the argument for Huberdeau personally.

So Draisaitl then?

McDavid will be far enough ahead on points from Matthews that once again his lead in goals won't be as impressive as McDavids lead in points.

 

[wetcoast]

When was the last time someone won the Hart while being 15+ points behind from first?

Idk how Matthews is even in this conversation, leafs are a good team without him

17-18 when Hall won with 93 points, the guy in first McDavid finished 5th (and was a really distant 5th to boot) in Hart voting that year.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Things move fast. In baseball I remember Bartolo Colon winning the Cy Young because he won 21 games, while the outnumbered analytical writers argued against him and the nature of baseball wins. For so many years wins was the biggest metric voters based their judgments on. Then 5 years later Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young going 13-12, wins weren't a factor.

Given the amount of writers added in the past few years, it's very possible Drai has a tougher time claiming the award if it was done this season. To me the evidence is the narrative the media had been touting. Even when Matthews wasn't particularly close to the Art Ross, a lot of media were framing it as Matthews vs. Shesterkin. As I said, McDavid was the analytics darling last year. This year it's Matthews. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm betting he finishes a lot higher than people here seem to expect.

A lot of the media? Or the Toronto-centric media like TSN and Sportsnet?

In any case, if Matthews wins the Hart it won't be because of his "underlying numbers". It will be because he ended up with a ridiculous amount of goals and finished at least somewhat respectable in the Art Ross race (top 4, top 5) in the process. So it will still be a case of "sorting stats by the leader", but in this case it will be by goals while also looking at where he finished in points. It won't be because Evolving Wild says he's got a great GAR.

 

[hockeyisgud]

17-18 when Hall won with 93 points, the guy in first McDavid finished 5th (and was a really distant 5th to boot) in Hart voting that year.

Look at the scoring stats for the NJD that year

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Lol people seriously think Matthews is going to win the Hart? Okay.

 

[wetcoast]

Things move fast. In baseball I remember Bartolo Colon winning the Cy Young because he won 21 games, while the outnumbered analytical writers argued against him and the nature of baseball wins. For so many years wins was the biggest metric voters based their judgments on. Then 5 years later Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young going 13-12, wins weren't a factor.

Given the amount of writers added in the past few years, it's very possible Drai has a tougher time claiming the award if it was done this season. To me the evidence is the narrative the media had been touting. Even when Matthews wasn't particularly close to the Art Ross, a lot of media were framing it as Matthews vs. Shesterkin. As I said, McDavid was the analytics darling last year. This year it's Matthews. We'll see how it plays out, but I'm betting he finishes a lot higher than people here seem to expect.

The thing is that analytics is more applicable to baseball than it is for hockey for individual players as batters and pitchers are really isolated and go one on one literally, compared to hockey where there are often 10,11 and 12 players on the ice and "involved" in the play.

There hasn't been a Bill James making the strong enough pitch for analytics in hockey is what I'm trying to say.

 

[wetcoast]

Look at the scoring stats for the NJD that year

Sure but if Florida just ties one more game (takes it to OT instead of a loss) then the Devils don't make the playoffs and Hall isn't in the top 5 of Hart voting.

 

[hockeyisgud]

Sure but if Florida just ties one more game (takes it to OT instead of a loss) then the Devils don't make the playoffs and Hall isn't in the top 5 of Hart voting.

Ya fair point

 

[Eltuna]

McDavid is pretty likely to win barring injury. He always turns it up at the end of the year, I expect him to have around a 12 point lead on top of everyone except for Draisaitl which will be too much for any mental gymnastics to overcome.

I also don’t believe he has been nearly as bad defensively as some make out this year. I think with Drai a healthy amount of criticism on his defensive effort is warranted but I do not see that as much with McDavid.

McDavid is in a tier of his own, if you watch him consistently it’s obvious he’s the most valuable player.

The playoffs will be the real test for him this year, he needs to have a truly dominant series where he wills a flawed team to at least the second round.

 

[TheDoldrums]

A lot of the media? Or the Toronto-centric media like TSN and Sportsnet?

In any case, if Matthews wins the Hart it won't be because of his "underlying numbers". It will be because he ended up with a ridiculous amount of goals and finished at least somewhat respectable in the Art Ross race (top 4, top 5) in the process. So it will still be a case of "sorting stats by the leader", but in this case it will be by goals while also looking at where he finished in points. It won't be because Evolving Wild says he's got a great GAR.

I mean Matthews had a dominant goal scoring lead last year and was top 5 in points. The "Toronto-centric" (people who like data) media wasn't arguing for him to win the Hart. They are this year because the data leads them to that conclusion. It's quite simple and there's no conspiracy to push a Toronto player.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I mean Matthews had a dominant goal scoring lead last year and was top 5 in points. The "Toronto-centric" (people who like data) media wasn't arguing for him to win the Hart. They are this year because the data leads them to that conclusion. It's quite simple and there's no conspiracy to push a Toronto player.

Because the large point gap last year made it impossible to push that narrative. This year, the point gap isn't quite as large between the leader (McDavid) and the guys after him.

Which, again, revolves around the points column.

Again, if Matthews loses the Rocket and finishes 10th or 11th in the Art Ross race, he's not winning the Hart due to his underlying numbers. Unless it's a weirdly unique situation like Taylor Hall, where the leading scorer missed the playoffs and the leading goal guy had paltry other totals, plus the unique team situation, they're not going to award the Hart to someone who isn't either the leader in points, or the leader in goals who also happens to be relatively close to the points lead as well.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

How is drai not the Edmonton winner over McDavid? I thought goals were most important. Lol no let's just force every hart to mcdavid because of a 3 point f***in lead on his teamate. Embarrassing

 

[hockeyisgud]

How is drai not the Edmonton winner over McDavid? I thought goals were most important. Lol no let's just force every hart to mcdavid because of a 3 point f***in lead on his teamate. Embarrassing

Why would you think that, it's never been the case.

 

[K Fleur]

Really depends on how McDavid finishes the season. If he builds like a 10 or point points lead then I think it's him. If not then this gets alot more interesting.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Dom isn’t wrong. Gaudreau easily has a better Hart case than Huberdeau.

 

[Romang67]

People who build models with the goal that they should be prescriptive rather than descriptive, and then complain when people don't agree that their models are perfect descriptive models when it comes to trophy voting are either forgetful, liars, or really f***ing dumb.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

Really depends on how McDavid finishes the season. If he builds like a 10 or point points lead then I think it's him. If not then this gets alot more interesting.

I think voters are starting to get a little wise, McDavid and Dri are minute hogs, usually they play all 2 minutes of the PP and have gotten burnt many times by being gassed, If Gaudreau or anyone else is 10 points out I think they win.

Imagine Gaudreau's point totals if he played 4 more minutes a game mostly on the PP, his +/- would most likely suffer but his point totals wouldn't.