NHL.com ranks top 20 centers

[Xirik]

Stop if with those stats out of context. Of f***ing course its easier to produce when another line is eating all the tough minutes. If you're so good at statistics why don't you come up with one comparing the strength of opposition like your friend Xirik asked (who seems much more based than you)?

I don't know why you hold Gibb to a higher standard. A lot of the stats posted in this thread before he jumped in were out of context.

If you feel added context is needed then just add it.

 

[dgibb10]

Stützle is a terrible example. He had a wrist injury and could barely shoot most of last year.

I wasn't the one who brought up stutzle specifically.

I showed each of the top 10 players in goals above shooting talent in 22-23, and how every single one of them had a shooting drop off the next year. He chose to focus on stutzle as somehow being vastly different. I pointed out the similarities.

I do expect stutzle to bounce back above 9.4%. At the same time, I certainly don't expect 17.4%. I believe both of these are more of outlier seasons, and the reality lies somewhere around 12.5%

Hischier shot about 20% above his prior career average, which isn't a huge amount of variance. But yeah, you wouldn't expect him to shoot 14.8% next season.

Hischier also still scored 4.6 goals below expectation.

27 goals on 31.6 xGoals.

 

[dgibb10]

like Hischier, who's shooting% this year was way better than previous years

Yes I will also expect hischier's shooting % to drop somewhat.

He had 3.3 goals above shooting talent, so assuming relatively 0 luck he should drop by about that much. If he has an tough or unlucky shooting year could be even lower, if he has a great or lucky shooting year could be higher. I'd expect lower tho.

The same way I'd expect better shooting results from Jack and Bratt, who were -3.8 and -6.6

And the same way Nicos shooting got better after he was -6.6 goals above shooting talent in 22-23, and Jack's went down after being +7.6 in 22-23

 

[Cats2TheCup]

I love Barkov.

Quite literally nobody would take Barkov over McDavid.

True. But Matthew Tkachuk chose Barkov in order to beat McDavid. And it worked.

 

[kilowatt]

Even at 36, I still think Kopitar is a top 20 center ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[NikolaTesla]

He already did

Damn then that must mean that Hughes is being sheltered

 

[Enga Olly]

Honest question.

How would you value regular season vs playoffs when you evaluate a player? 70/30 50/50?

Any reasonable answer drops Matthews significantly vs McD, Drai, Barkov and Mackinnon.

He has been a great regular season player but his inability to get it done when it matters has to count against him, no?

By this logic, many players will have to be dropped from the list entirely as they have no po games or made the po only once or twice in many years. Since you want to negate a 69 goal scorer because he's never had a deep po run surely Larkin or Apfel Strudel or Heschier shouldn't even be on the list.
But any twisted logic to take a swipe at easily the third best center in the league. I get it - you hate. So many here do, you're quite common.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Damn then that must mean that Hughes is being sheltered

That's one way to deflect from the point. In case you didn't know, Hughes is also better than Suzuki.

 

[lipstickjunkie]

All I know is if they included contracts, Stutzle would be #3, ahead of Matthews.

 

[pekka55]

If you only take into account the regular season, then this ranking might be pretty good. However, the goal is to win the cup, no? Then if you take into account the playoffs, then Matthews is too high up. Dude has done nothing but lose in the playoffs.

 

[daver]

By this logic, many players will have to be dropped from the list entirely as they have no po games or made the po only once or twice in many years. Since you want to negate a 69 goal scorer because he's never had a deep po run surely Larkin or Apfel Strudel or Heschier shouldn't even be on the list.
But any twisted logic to take a swipe at easily the third best center in the league. I get it - you hate. So many here do, you're quite common.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Your "69 goal scorer" becomes a 35 goal scorer and a Top 25 scorer in the playoffs.

Are you saying that is irrelevant? You wouldn't you take a proven superior playoff performing C on your team?

 

[Silky Johnson]

By this logic, many players will have to be dropped from the list entirely as they have no po games or made the po only once or twice in many years. Since you want to negate a 69 goal scorer because he's never had a deep po run surely Larkin or Apfel Strudel or Heschier shouldn't even be on the list.
But any twisted logic to take a swipe at easily the third best center in the league. I get it - you hate. So many here do, you're quite common.

Well hockey is a team game and I wouldn't count games people they didn't play against them very much. However, playoff games the DID happen should count for and against players as they did in fact happen.

Now you are probably going to say that making the playoffs is better than not. And that would be true for from a team perspective. But good players can be unable to make the playoffs through no fault of their own and bad players can be carried to championships.

It would be uncommonly dense to think that a player wouldn't get judged for games they play.

 

[Crow]

Nico Hischier is 100% better than Bedard right now.

Will Bedard surpass him as he develops? Almost certainly.

Was he better than Nico last year? f*** no

Yeah I don’t really understand Bedard’s ranking. Is it a projection for the next year? He doesn’t really belong on this list yet.

 

[Fataldogg]

Zibenejad shouldn't be top-20 after this previous season. Prior to that, I'd argue top-15, but he was completely underwhelming last year.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I am very confident Nick suzuki will shoot less than 17.8% next year

(if you notice, Tage, Stutzle, Cozens, Keller were all young guys as well and still their shooting % dropped).

Are trying to tell me you think Nick Suzuki is a Leon Draisaitl/Auston Matthews/Brayden Point level shooter?

Stutzle couldn’t shoot last year, as most know, so his goals dropped a lot and then set career highs in assists, since didn’t want to shoot. We’ll see how he rebounds this year, assuming healthy.

 

[Voight]

Yea, the largest representation of PHWHA

They aren't large enough to guarantee him or any Toronto player a top 3 finish.

 

[Enga Olly]

Well hockey is a team game and I wouldn't count games people they didn't play against them very much. However, playoff games the DID happen should count for and against players as they did in fact happen.

Now you are probably going to say that making the playoffs is better than not. And that would be true for from a team perspective. But good players can be unable to make the playoffs through no fault of their own and bad players can be carried to championships.

It would be uncommonly dense to think that a player wouldn't get judged for games they play.

Making the PO is a better result than not making the PO, and the stars on a team making the PO are getting better results than the ones that aren't, but please continue with your hate - it's all you have

 

[Kennerback]

Stutzle had a career average of 11.8%, then shot 17.1% that year. It was a 44.9% net increase on his previous career average (and in terms of raw totals 5.3%)
Suzuki had a career average of 12.6% then shot 17.8% that year. It was a 41.2% net increase on his previous career average (and in terms of raw totals 5.2%)

If telling yourself these are vastly different makes you feel better, go ahead.

Yes, I expect Suzuki to shoot below his career average (also it's 0.3% and I simply picked a nice multiple of 0.5). I also expect cole caufield to shoot above his career average (11.7%), but I noticed you didn't have a comment on that? I believe both of those averages are skewed by outlier seasons, Suzuki an inflated season, and Caufield a very low season.

There’s 32 teams in the NHL, when we’re down to arguing the order of #16 to #20 Centers, the margins are not great and your pick is as good as mine.

 

[Xirik]

There’s 32 teams in the NHL, when we’re down to arguing the order of #16 to #20 Centers, the margins are not great and your pick is as good as mine.

so you're saying stats don't matter?

 

[Silky Johnson]

Making the PO is a better result than not making the PO, and the stars on a team making the PO are getting better results than the ones that aren't, but please continue with your hate - it's all you have

Wow, that is a pretty bad take.

I'm sure you, like most leaf fans were very happy with playoff Matthews performances. Maybe I'll go check on the leafs board and see how you all felt.

It's pretty clear that wins/losses are a team accomplishment. If Matthews was putting up great numbers but still losing I wouldn't hold it against him.

So basically what you are saying is that playoff performance has no bearing how we should value a player?

My original question was honest. We can debate how much it matters, 90/10 to 50/50, but to say it doesn't matter is ridiculous. Draisaitl/Kucherov/Barkov/McKinnon/McDavid elevate their games in the playoffs and Matthews does not. It has to count against him and for them.

 

[dgibb10]

Stutzle couldn’t shoot last year, as most know, so his goals dropped a lot and then set career highs in assists, since didn’t want to shoot. We’ll see how he rebounds this year, assuming healthy.

I agree. But stutzle was going to drop from 17%, injury or not.

Yeah I don’t really understand Bedard’s ranking. Is it a projection for the next year? He doesn’t really belong on this list yet.

I can't see it being a projection for next year with 37 year old sidney crosby still at 6.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I agree. But stutzle was going to drop from 17%, injury or not.

Ya that’s fair, probably between 13-14.

 

[dgibb10]

Ya that’s fair, probably between 13-14.

Funnily enough, between the unsustainably high shooting year in 22-23, and the unsustainably low shooting year year in 23-24, it evens out pretty perfectly to 13.6% (and 57 goals on 56.7 xGoals) combined over the 2 years.

 

[NyQuil]

Wait....Hfboards regularly tells me Suzuki is not a #1 centre. What is this shit????

I’m as confused as you.

 

[Cats2TheCup]

Barkov was pretty bad in the last 4 games of the series. He owned an injured Drai in games 1-3. I’d still take him over Matthews but chill

well so there was this guy with an elbow