Next Non-McDavid Art Ross winner

[hamzarocks]

Mackinnon

 

[Regal]

Everyone mentions McDavid missing time, but Draisaitl missing time would be an interesting one too, as it would almost certainly hurt McDavid’s totals with Drai being such a big part of the PP and would also likely take Draisaitl out of the running. A short term injury probably wouldn’t matter if McDavid’s playing like ‘21 or ‘23, but if he misses most of the season, that might open the door, or if McDavid is closer to the pack like in ‘22. Or if McDavid misses a handful of games himself. Thing is I don’t think there’s an obvious choice that would take it in those instances. There’s probably 10+ players who could go off for 115-120 points in the right circumstances.

 

[MadLuke]

First scenario that come to mind will be McDavid missing enough game or play injury to loose but not too much to put the Oilers down and Drai win it.

2018-19 NHL 105 (4th)

2019-20 NHL 110 (1st)

2020-21 NHL 84 (2nd)

2021-22 NHL 110 (4th)

2022-23 NHL 128 (2nd)

2018-19 NHL 1.28 (4th)

2019-20 NHL 1.55 (1st)

2020-21 NHL 1.50 (2nd)

2021-22 NHL 1.38 (6th)

2022-23 NHL 1.60 (2nd)

Would not necessary need much if he has a good year and McDavid a bit of a down one a la 19-20.

 

[Three On Zero]

It absolutely does address the point. The comment I was responding to made no mention of a "season ending injury", just an injury. Draisaitl has shown he can elevate his game in the rare instances that McDavid misses games in the past. It absolutely amazes me that even after 5 years of playing at a 50+ goal, 120+ point pace people still think Draisaitl is a mere product of McDavid.

McDavid played 63 of 71 games in 2019-2020 and lost out on the Ross to Draisaitl. Draisaitl saw his PPG jump from 1.5 to 2.0 when McDavid was out that year.

And Draisaitl is significantly ahead of #3 in points since McDavid began to dominate the Art Ross trophy in 2017. Mcdavid is #1 in points since 2017 with 802. Draisaitl is #2 with 684. MacKinnon is #3 with 606. That is a significant gap.

Should McDavid miss time next year the biggest threat to him winning the Art Ross is clearly Draisaitl. In a couple years time as McDavid and Draisaitl get older it will be time for Bedard to start winning Art Ross trophies.

Draisaitl has 49 points in 49 games where he has played without McDavid, that’s why people know he will see a reduction of points if McDavid misses any series time with injury.

Obviously Draisaitl wouldn’t drop to a 82 point player, but it’s not unrealistic to think he would drop to around 100-105

 

[McPoyle]

Draisaitl has 49 points in 49 games where he has played without McDavid, that’s why people know he will see a reduction of points if McDavid misses any series time with injury.

Obviously Draisaitl wouldn’t drop to a 82 point player, but it’s not unrealistic to think he would drop to around 100-105

Lions share of those games are from 2015 when Drai was a 65 point pace sophomore. So that is not a good comparison.

Since 2018 Draisaitl has played at a 50 goal, 120 point pace. 5 years to look back on. In that time Draisaitl has had no drop off in production when McDavid is out of the lineup

There is zero reason to think his production would drop off in any significant way.

 

[Three On Zero]

Lions share of those games are from 2015 when Drai was a 65 point pace sophomore. So that is a good comparison.

Since 2018 Draisaitl has played at a 50 goal, 120 point pace. 5 years to look back on. In that time Draisaitl has had no drop off in production when McDavid is out of the lineup

There is zero reason to think his production would drop off in any significant way.

All 5 years beside a healthy McDavid, the data we have shows that he isn't the same player with/without him. Even a 20 point drop off puts him from trophy contention to 5th-7th overall in points (going off last year).

 

[Aashir Mallik]

If Mcdavid somehow gets injured than I think it actually opens up a lot, I could see any of

Mackinnon, draisaitl, Robertson, Hughes, and kucherov winning it

Also guys like Marner, Kaprizov, Pettersson, Matthews, tkachuk as dark horse guys who may also win it

With Mcdavid in, I think draisaitl and Mackinnon are the guys who may be able to challenge him

 

[jigglysquishy]

Draisaitl plays on the powerplay with a top two powerplay player on all time and by far the best player in the league.

He was 13th in EVP last year. That's very vulnerable.

 

[McVespa99]

If anyone besides Mcdavid wins it this year it will be Matthews, as far as I'm concerned Matthews is the #2 player in the world, the only other player I'd consider for #2 player in the world is Makar but he's not winning the scoring title.

Cale Makar is incredible though.



Bedard will do it, not this year because he's got Taylor Hall and not much else.

Your entire post is highly amusing. Auston my highest point total is 106 Matthews?
Auston I dont get many assists Matthews? Auston I cant stay healthy Matthews.
I am probably just being an idiot because you are not being serious and I missed the sarcasm.

 

[StoveTopStauffer]

Voted Matthews. Only way McDavid doesn't win is if he misses like 30+ games. Assuming that happens, it'll drop Draisaitls production as well.

Assuming he stays healthy for his entire career, I think it's his trophy to lose until hes like 33-34 and Bedard fully develops and eventually overtakes him.

TBH to be beaten by Matthews, he'd have to miss almost half a season.

 

[dirtydanglez]

Draisaitl plays on the powerplay with a top two powerplay player on all time and by far the best player in the league.

He was 13th in EVP last year. That's very vulnerable.

the way i see it is the only way mcdavid doesnt win is if he's injured for a considerable period of time. if that happens its going to hurt drai's production since the oilers will be easier to defend and he is also losing the best setup man in the league. i think that would open it up for mack, matthews, kuch to win.

 

[ProdigalNuck]

It absolutely does address the point. The comment I was responding to made no mention of a "season ending injury", just an injury. Draisaitl has shown he can elevate his game in the rare instances that McDavid misses games in the past. It absolutely amazes me that even after 5 years of playing at a 50+ goal, 120+ point pace people still think Draisaitl is a mere product of McDavid.

McDavid played 63 of 71 games in 2019-2020 and lost out on the Ross to Draisaitl. Draisaitl saw his PPG jump from 1.5 to 2.0 when McDavid was out that year.

And Draisaitl is significantly ahead of #3 in points since McDavid began to dominate the Art Ross trophy in 2017. Mcdavid is #1 in points since 2017 with 802. Draisaitl is #2 with 684. MacKinnon is #3 with 606. That is a significant gap.

Should McDavid miss time next year the biggest threat to him winning the Art Ross is clearly Draisaitl. In a couple years time as McDavid and Draisaitl get older it will be time for Bedard to start winning Art Ross trophies.

Ok this is what bothers me about this argument. Both sides are wrong.

The side that "actually" claims that Drai is a product of McDavid is just plain wrong.
The side that argues that McDavid has little to do with Drai's production is also wrong.

Of course the reality is in the middle.
Drai is perfectly capable of amassing quite a few points on his own.
However, playing with McDavid has tangible benefits regardless. If you are on a line with McDavid you benefit from playing with McDavid. If you aren't on a line with McDavid you draw lesser defensive match ups, unless McDavid is ice cold.

 

[Three On Zero]

the way i see it is the only way mcdavid doesnt win is if he's injured for a considerable period of time. if that happens its going to hurt drai's production since the oilers will be easier to defend and he is also losing the best setup man in the league. i think that would open it up for mack, matthews, kuch to win.

The talent on the team without McDavid drops drastically, defenders would be able to ride Draisiatl harder knowing they don't have a McDavid on the ice to also contend with. Draisaitl has a lot of success due to the amount of energy that is used to focus on McDavid, he gets quite a bit of open ice to play with

 

[McPoyle]

All 5 years beside a healthy McDavid, the data we have shows that he isn't the same player with/without him. Even a 20 point drop off puts him from trophy contention to 5th-7th overall in points (going off last year).

You can't just pull a 20 point decrease out of your ass and call it data lol.

The data shows that Draisaitl's production acutally goes up in games McDavid has missed over the last 5 years. 7-12-19 in 11 games. And 43-67-110 in 71 games when McDavid wasn't 100% in 2020.

In those 5 years McDavid wasn't always healthy. He missed the entire offseason rehabbing a potentially career ending knee injury in 2019-20 and was not at 100% for the whole year, also missed some time tweking that very knee in game. In that year Draisaitl won the Hart, Ross, and Lindsay.

 

[Three On Zero]

You can't just pull a 20 point decrease out of your ass and call it data lol.

The data shows that Draisaitl's production acutally goes up in games McDavid has missed over the last 5 years. 7-12-19 in 11 games. Stop making up stuff.

Last time McDavid was injured, missed several games and also was not 100% in a year was 2019-20. In that year Draisaitl won the Hart, Ross, and Lindsay.

again, 49 points in 49 games. That's data that shows he would be an 82 point player. (Which of course he wouldn't be) so no, it's not "out of my ass". It's what we know and have to work with

49 game sample size is much more accurate than an 11 game sample size

 

[McPoyle]

The talent on the team without McDavid drops drastically, defenders would be able to ride Draisiatl harder knowing they don't have a McDavid on the ice to also contend with. Draisaitl has a lot of success due to the amount of energy that is used to focus on McDavid, he gets quite a bit of open ice to play with

And then whoops, Draisaitl scores 1.75ppg when McDavid is not playing

 

[Bank Shot]

again, 49 points in 49 games. That's data that shows he would be an 82 point player. (Which of course he wouldn't be) so no, it's not "out of my ass". It's what we know and have to work with

49 game sample size is much more accurate than an 11 game sample size

lol. What brain dead logic.

 

[Three On Zero]

And then whoops, Draisaitl scores 1.75ppg when McDavid is not playing

Highly doubtful given what we know

 

[McPoyle]

again, 49 points in 49 games. That's data that shows he would be an 82 point player. (Which of course he wouldn't be) so no, it's not "out of my ass". It's what we know and have to work with

49 game sample size is much more accurate than an 11 game sample size

Ah so you think including a large sample from when Draisaitl was 19 gives your numbers more credence. Ok then. You clearly are clueless no offence. Im sorry ive wasted so much time talking to a wall.

Highly doubtful given what we know

Nah, this is literally what Draisaitl has done when McDavid is out of the lineup over the last 5 years lol.

 

[jigglysquishy]

We saw two seasons ago what happens when McDavid has a down year.

He won a pedestrian Art Ross. Draisaitl finished fourth.

If McDavid misses significant time, maybe Draisaitl is the betting favourite. But I don't think Mackinnon or Kucherov or Matthews are far enough back that they can't do it too.

 

[McPoyle]

We saw two seasons ago what happens when McDavid has a down year.

He won a pedestrian Art Ross. Draisaitl finished fourth.

We also saw McDavid play a full year not at 100%. In that year Draisaitl swept the awards.

 

[jigglysquishy]

We also saw McDavid play a full year not at 100%. In that year Draisaitl swept the awards.

It was two years earlier. Why is 2020 more relevant than 2022 when we're going into 2024?

 

[Three On Zero]

It was two years earlier. Why is 2020 more relevant than 2022 when we're going into 2024?

Because it better fits the false narrative. Without McDavid the trophy race opens wide up. It goes from an almost McDavid guarantee to a 5-7 person race

 

[McPoyle]

It was two years earlier. Why is 2020 more relevant than 2022 when we're going into 2024?

I would say its pretty relevant. Its the last non McDavid Art Ross. Draisaitl is as good of a player now as he was in 2020.

You clearly like old data, as you liked a comment from 3on0 referencing Draisaitls productions without McDavid in 2015-16.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Went with Bedard, he's really next up and will likely be at his peak when McDavid starts to slightly slow down. Until then, it's really McDavid's unless he gets hurt - he's won the Art Ross for 3 consecutive years as is.