I just think it's all so subjective and nobody really knows anything aside from the most obvious cases. And even when it's "obvious" people just get it wrong. Consensus #1 picks end up busting, and late round gambles end up paying off. The sample sizes we're dealing with are so tiny that even over a decade or more, draft success is largely luck.
I'm not saying that people don't take it seriously and have a robust process, but if there was anything close to certainty in the process they wouldn't even have to play the games. Just rank all the players and see which team is better.
I think this is right on.
This is done badly
all the time.
It's easy to look at huge busts like JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich to name a very few and go "man, those were clown picks" -- and they were! -- but for every one of those obvious blunders there are a bunch of guys who the entire league passed on multiple times who turn into stars. If this truly were a science, there's no way Dak Prescott makes it to round 4, Matthew Judon, D.J. Reader and Tyreek Hill make it to round 5, and J.D. McKissick and Cory Littleton go undrafted.
Why do I pick that random sprinkling of players? Because all those guys are from ONE draft year (2016).
You really do have to look at the teams -- or, to be really precise, the talent evaluation groups --that have sustained success over a period of years. Those operations earn the benefit of the doubt when they make picks that make you go, "huh" (sorry). And they'll make some bone-head picks, too, because it's the nature of the beast.
To bring it all home, it's a pretty unsatisfying discussion with this team because our talent acquisition - -drafting + FA -- has been so ****ing terrible for so long. we've had to look outside for literally decades to see how it can be done well.
Here's hoping the Harris era kicks off for real in 2024 with a group of folks who can make us one of the exemplars of how it's done well. With 5 picks in the first 3 rounds and a metric butt-load of cap space, they'll have room to work!