OT: New Owner! New Name? New Season? New Everything!!! — Oh, and New Thread. All things Washington NFL FootBall (beat it, Dan-Bag!!)

[ynotcaps]

When BPA is someone who has the position blocked you trade back and add more picks.

Assuming you can find a partner who's willing to give you value. It's not like that's a given.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

When someone says BPA, you don’t act like a moron and draft a QB or LT if you already have those positions filled. Come on use your heads a little bit….BPA is a guide of sorts, not an unbending rule.

I mean, aside from the elite tier players a the very top with separation from the pack, how do you determine best player available between all the different positions?

You trust your scouting, and hopefully you did your homework.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Assuming you can find a partner who's willing to give you value. It's not like that's a given.

That’s right….if we’re team 4 and the BPA is a LB, and team 5 needs that guy, they know you don’t and will just wait for their guy to slide to them next, but teams moving up are more likely coming from much further back than one spot. Takes two….

What you don’t want to do is reach for a positional need out of draft position. You need a LB, but the one you love rates as a 4th rounder, you don’t pick him in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

[bacchist]

If BPA is just something you say, I'm fine with it.

If your team has a glaring weakness and you never draft top level talent at that position because BPA, that's an issue.

Nobody is suggesting you should pick players multiple rounds earlier than they're expected to go.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Let’s just hope we have someone new making draft picks next season

Give Jim Harbaugh a bucket load of money and have him make the picks. He’s familiar with all the college kids right now.

He can go live in his brothers neighborhood lol

 

[John Price]

if we move on I want someone younger who isn't a retread

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If BPA is just something you say, I'm fine with it.

If your team has a glaring weakness and you never draft top level talent at that position because BPA, that's an issue.

Nobody is suggesting you should pick players multiple rounds earlier than they're expected to go.

...so if you're picking in the 3rd, and the next OT on your list rates in the 4th, you don't take the OT in the 3rd.

That's the idea behind BPA to me...you either need to draft better players earlier to fill a positional need or you go to free agency. What you don't do is go off the board and take a guy early because you need bodies.

 

[ynotcaps]

...so if you're picking in the 3rd, and the next OT on your list rates in the 4th, you don't take the OT in the 3rd.

That's the idea behind BPA to me...you either need to draft better players earlier to fill a positional need or you go to free agency. What you don't do is go off the board and take a guy early because you need bodies.

So, no Ricky Stromberg in the 3rd? And no picking Braeden Daniels, who every talent evaluator in the league and the media had defined as a "project" before the draft, in the 4th?
If those are your rules, then there's no way RR and the Martys can do their jobs!!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So, no Ricky Stromberg in the 3rd? And no picking Braeden Daniels, who every talent evaluator in the league and the media had defined as a "project" before the draft, in the 4th?
If those are your rules, then there's no way RR and the Martys can do their jobs!!

It would all depend on the organizational rankings at the draft.

RR and Marty won't have jobs to do here for long.

Why would you reach for a project? That seems like sure path to failure. You draft a project where he rates on draft day IMO with the idea he can get much better.

I mean if you absolutely love a prospect, maybe you take him a round early, but you better hope he turns out or it's a recipe for failure.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I feel like the last few years you have to reach to get offensive lineman and if you want them you have to draft them a little earlier than BPA.

 

[bacchist]

...so if you're picking in the 3rd, and the next OT on your list rates in the 4th, you don't take the OT in the 3rd.

That's the idea behind BPA to me...you either need to draft better players earlier to fill a positional need or you go to free agency. What you don't do is go off the board and take a guy early because you need bodies.

In a vacuum, if you're looking at an OT and he might not be available the next time you pick, you should probably pull the trigger. If it's the 3rd round, and some OT is projected for the 4th, but you pick it late in the 4th and he's probably going to get picked up, go ahead and pick him.

Too early is when the guy would still be around the next time you pick. If you're not going to have another chance to get your guy, passing on him based on mock draft results is pretty dumb.

 

[ynotcaps]

It would all depend on the organizational rankings at the draft.

RR and Marty won't have jobs to do here for long.

Why would you reach for a project? That seems like sure path to failure. You draft a project where he rates on draft day IMO with the idea he can get much better.

I mean if you absolutely love a prospect, maybe you take him a round early, but you better hope he turns out or it's a recipe for failure.

My point (several of them, actually) exactly.

Using the current SW operation to debate the merits/demerits of BPA vs. need is an unsound premise to begin with:
1) They're terrible talent evaluators
2) if there is a God -- or, short of that, a rational, intelligent owner -- they'll be gone 5 minutes after the final snap of the season
3) It's hard to tell what they were thinking when they made any given pick: did they think this pick was a need? or did they genuinely think this guy was the BPA?

Looking at the last 2 drafts (top half picks only), it seems like they flip between the 2 strategies:
2023:
1st Rd: Seems like they were locked in on CB (i.e. NEED) but even within that category, they didn't draft the best CB available (Gonzalez, or even J. Porter) -- instead, seems they were drafting for trait (ball hawk) which I don't think anyone would advocate for (at least not with such a high pick)
2nd Rd: Trait (i.e. NEED) -- and, wow, it worked, the guy has played a few NFL snaps and made the game-sealing pick in our most recent meaningless win -- a catch that any replacement-level player 3 yards from the receiver who tipped the ball up should make. That miracle play aside, I'd prefer my second round pick plays meaningful snaps before week 9, when the team has already thrown in the towel on the season -- and that he not play a position that we have spent draft picks on in each of the previous 3 drafts (Curl in '20, Forrest in '21, Butler in '22). Guys we could have taken there? G C. Mauch (but why spend a 2nd on a future starting OT when you can spend a 4th on a project who may never play), T. Tuipulotu (DE/OLB) (LOVE this guy), C J.M. Schmitz (Giants rookie starting C 'til injured), G O. Torrance (again, he's no B. Daniels, but...)
One thing all of these guys we could have taken have in common? They were all at positions of need -- and all of them would have been perfectly defensible, and possible even very good, picks.
3rd: Need. But does anybody really need a C who's rated as a 5th or 6th round talent at the cost of a 3rd rounder?
4th: Stupidity. Wasted pick on a guy who is, by all accounts, not ready to play in the league -- And guess what? He doesn't. Aaaand, probably won't.
2022:
1st Rd: BPA (arguably?) Hard to argue that WR was the biggest need for the team that had Terry and a previous year's 3rd (D. Brown). Looking at the rest of the 1st round, there are other guys I'd prefer we'd have taken (G Z. Johnson, CB McDuffie, LB Q. Walker), but no one that screams "what the **** were you thinking passing on this guy?!"
2nd Rd: BPA (again, ?) DT P. Mathis sure as hell wasn't a need -- and, good thing, because he's managed a few snaps through injuries, though he'd be a rotational piece at best without them. Next 2 guys off the board? S J. Brisker and CB A. Taylor -- either of which might have scratched that off the top of '23's "need" list
3rd RD: BPA (in that RB wasn't a screaming need) and B. Rob might be the best player taken in the next 12 picks or so (w/ another RB, D. Pierce a contender for that honor)
4th: Need(?)-- I say this because nothing says Percy Butler was the BPA, but apparently, this regime has a need to draft a S every ****ing year.

Bottom line:
I should be the GM.

 

[ynotcaps]

I feel like the last few years you have to reach to get offensive lineman and if you want them you have to draft them a little earlier than BPA.

The '23 draft had some good talent available when we picked (see my TLDR post above -- C. Mauch, J.M. Schmitz, O. Torrance) -- we just blew those picks on players who represented bad value, then RR & The Ms believed/thought/dropped acid & decided we needed to waste our 3rd & 4th on guys who reportedly play OL positions, but we cannot confirm based on what they've demonstrated since being issued SW uniforms.

 

[Neil Racki]

Forbes - selected bc they wanted to improve the turnovers. Top 5 D in yards, bottom 6 in turnovers. Analytics love turn overs .. as they should.

Martin - drafted bc team saw what happened when Curl got injured last year, Curl in last year of K ... Curl insurance

Stromberg/Daniels = way to early to tell but I like taking OL guys in rounds 3-5. Especially the IOL as you can snag high ranked guy still. OT in these rounds tend to be projects or kicked inside. Charles/Cosmi/Daniels probably


Past years draft was very reactionary.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

is it really wise to use high picks on insurance?

Brain dead decision so far on that 1st pick….but I won’t give up on Toast Forbes yet….he‘s got the talent to improve with better decision-making.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Let’s just hope we have someone new making draft picks next season

Give Jim Harbaugh a bucket load of money and have him make the picks. He’s familiar with all the college kids right now.

He can go live in his brothers neighborhood lol

I have thought about Harbaugh quite a bit. I do see him leaving Michigan after this season, especially if they win it all.

NFL makes the most sense. But where? Being down I-95 from his brother would be delicious. Plus I think I read that he doesn’t like competing directly with his big brother John, so that should mean an NFC team. Would limit the chances of playing each other quite a bit.

Come on Harris. Have Magic start canoodling with ol Jimmy

 

[Ridley Simon]

Forbes - selected bc they wanted to improve the turnovers. Top 5 D in yards, bottom 6 in turnovers. Analytics love turn overs .. as they should.

Martin - drafted bc team saw what happened when Curl got injured last year, Curl in last year of K ... Curl insurance

Stromberg/Daniels = way to early to tell but I like taking OL guys in rounds 3-5. Especially the IOL as you can snag high ranked guy still. OT in these rounds tend to be projects or kicked inside. Charles/Cosmi/Daniels probably


Past years draft was very reactionary.

Completely this on Martin. As was completely this for Mathis.

Fill and then kill philosophy, in that you backfill the need and then let the soon to be very expensive UFA leave.

Mathis worked out “meh”. Great that Payne was so good we ended up resigning him. Bad that Mathis hasn’t been healthy, ever.

We will see w Martin and Curl.

 

[ynotcaps]

I have thought about Harbaugh quite a bit. I do see him leaving Michigan after this season, especially if they win it all.

NFL makes the most sense. But where? Being down I-95 from his brother would be delicious. Plus I think I read that he doesn’t like competing directly with his big brother John, so that should mean an NFC team. Would limit the chances of playing each other quite a bit.

Come on Harris. Have Magic start canoodling with ol Jimmy

Oy. Jim H. is a little bit societally outspoken, and putting him in DC would be inviting more unnecessary drama, I think.
Please give me a football nut who lives and breathes nothing but football, scouting and talent evaluation. I don't want to hear or know anything about what he thinks about the state of the country, electoral politics, what constitutes marriage, or who's being wronged in our country or the rest of the world.
I want to know how he evaluates coaches and players, how we defines success for himself, the organization, the coaches and the players.
I want to know how he values draft picks and how he views free agency. How capable he is of learning new stuff and evolving with the game.
I just want a really good FOOTBALL guy with demonstrated success and NO demonstrated drama.
Dear Lord, hear my prayer.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I have thought about Harbaugh quite a bit. I do see him leaving Michigan after this season, especially if they win it all.

NFL makes the most sense. But where? Being down I-95 from his brother would be delicious. Plus I think I read that he doesn’t like competing directly with his big brother John, so that should mean an NFC team. Would limit the chances of playing each other quite a bit.

Come on Harris. Have Magic start canoodling with ol Jimmy

Sure would make the joint team practices in the preseason alot more fun

 

[Ridley Simon]

is it really wise to use high picks on insurance?

Brain dead decision so far on that 1st pick….but I won’t give up on Toast Forbes yet….he‘s got the talent to improve with better decision-making.

That’s the 64mil question, isn’t it?

Oy. Jim H. is a little bit societally outspoken, and putting him in DC would be inviting more unnecessary drama, I think.
Please give me a football nut who lives and breathes nothing but football, scouting and talent evaluation. I don't want to hear or know anything about what he thinks about the state of the country, electoral politics, what constitutes marriage, or who's being wronged in our country or the rest of the world.
I want to know how he evaluates coaches and players, how we defines success for himself, the organization, the coaches and the players.
I want to know how he values draft picks and how he views free agency. How capable he is of learning new stuff and evolving with the game.
I just want a really good FOOTBALL guy with demonstrated success and NO demonstrated drama.
Dear Lord, hear my prayer.

I just want someone who will make the Skins winners again.

No disrespect to you, but I don’t care people’s politics. Everyone deserves a voice. Just be GOOD at your chosen profession.

 

[ynotcaps]

is it really wise to use high picks on insurance?

Brain dead decision so far on that 1st pick….but I won’t give up on Toast Forbes yet….he‘s got the talent to improve with better decision-making.

It's fine if you have a roster with no glaring holes and/or are a contender facing huge cap constraints and need to be ready to backfill key likely departures.

That is... checks my notes... not us.

 

[kicksavedave]

Seems like I have this Ted Talk every five years.

There is considerable evidence that drafting for need, as is done in every single mock draft on the internet, is a losing strategy and drafting BPA, regardless of position, is how the consistently top teams all operate. Example:

The NY Giants had three of the top LBs in the league when Lawrence Taylor was available at the top of the draft. They didn't need an LB. But he was the best player available by far at #2 overall after the NO Saints drafted for need and took George Rogers. The Saints continued to mire in mediocrity while LT and his HOF career won two Super Bowls and wreaked absolute havoc on the NFC East for a decade. Its one example but it highlights a few points:

When drafting for 'positional need", your needs change by the time the draftee is ready to really contribute.

When you draft for need you pass on better players by design, leaving better players to drop to your competitors.

When you draft for need, the player doesn't actually fill the need an extremely large percent of the time. Even first rounders only become impact starters a low percentage of the time dropping precipitously after the top ten picks. When you draft for need, you plug players into positions without even knowing if they will play in the NFL.

If you end up with a logjam of good players at a certain position (good fortune indeed), then you can trade to another team to fill holes with legit contributors if needed. When you pass on good players to fill holes, you end up with less depth and balanced, but average talent, instead of finding log jams (too much talent) The Redskins did this when they sent Jay Schroeder to the Raiders for Jim Lachey.

In the end, over time, teams which use "need" as a factor in their drafting, end up with much more mediocre rosters, constantly plugging holes with draft picks that don't pan out, while teams that draft BPA find steals much more often and have fewer holes in their roster because more of their picks pan out over the long run.

Finally, none of this comparison in approaches matters if you cannot evaluate talent. But on an equal footing, evaluation wise, drafting BPA gets you better players more often and that's how you win. The Redskins FO alternates between BPA and need constantly and it shows they don't have a draft strategy at all. But their poor overall talent evaluation would mean they aren't going to succeed with either approach. Its the Steelers of the 90s, Giants and 49rs of the 80s, Cowboys of the late 80s early 90s, Eagles of the 2000's, Chiefs of the last 8 years, Pats during the Brady era, that all showed consistently drafting BPA was how they built winning rosters over a long period of time.

 

[ynotcaps]

That’s the 64mil question, isn’t it?


I just want someone who will make the Skins winners again.

No disrespect to you, but I don’t care people’s politics. Everyone deserves a voice. Just be GOOD at your chosen profession.

We want the same thing. My point is, I don't want their politics -- whatever they are -- or anything else -- sign-stealing scandals? -- distracting the team, the media, the fan base. There has been so GD much drama with this organization the last 30 years it's been maddening.
I'm sick of this team being the source of embarrassment about not just football, but SO MUCH else.
I want the only thing that people -- fans and talking heads -- talk about with this team is the football.

 

[ynotcaps]

Seems like I have this Ted Talk every five years.

There is considerable evidence that drafting for need, as is done in every single mock draft on the internet, is a losing strategy and drafting BPA, regardless of position, is how the consistently top teams all operate. Example:

The NY Giants had three of the top LBs in the league when Lawrence Taylor was available at the top of the draft. They didn't need an LB. But he was the best player available by far at #2 overall after the NO Saints drafted for need and took George Rogers. The Saints continued to mire in mediocrity while LT and his HOF career won two Super Bowls and wreaked absolute havoc on the NFC East for a decade. Its one example but it highlights a few points:

When drafting for 'positional need", your needs change by the time the draftee is ready to really contribute.

When you draft for need you pass on better players by design, leaving better players to drop to your competitors.

When you draft for need, the player doesn't actually fill the need an extremely large percent of the time. Even first rounders only become impact starters a low percentage of the time dropping precipitously after the top ten picks. When you draft for need, you plug players into positions without even knowing if they will play in the NFL.

If you end up with a logjam of good players at a certain position (good fortune indeed), then you can trade to another team to fill holes with legit contributors if needed. When you pass on good players to fill holes, you end up with less depth and balanced, but average talent, instead of finding log jams (too much talent) The Redskins did this when they sent Jay Schroeder to the Raiders for Jim Lachey.

In the end, over time, teams which use "need" as a factor in their drafting, end up with much more mediocre rosters, constantly plugging holes with draft picks that don't pan out, while teams that draft BPA find steals much more often and have fewer holes in their roster because more of their picks pan out over the long run.

Finally, none of this comparison in approaches matters if you cannot evaluate talent. But on an equal footing, evaluation wise, drafting BPA gets you better players more often and that's how you win. The Redskins FO alternates between BPA and need constantly and it shows they don't have a draft strategy at all. But their poor overall talent evaluation would mean they aren't going to succeed with either approach. Its the Steelers of the 90s, Giants and 49rs of the 80s, Cowboys of the late 80s early 90s, Eagles of the 2000's, Chiefs of the last 8 years, Pats during the Brady era, that all showed consistently drafting BPA was how they built winning rosters over a long period of time.

Agreed. And this year, the BPA at every pick -- all 8 of them -- needs to be an OT.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Seems like I have this Ted Talk every five years.

There is considerable evidence that drafting for need, as is done in every single mock draft on the internet, is a losing strategy and drafting BPA, regardless of position, is how the consistently top teams all operate. Example:

The NY Giants had three of the top LBs in the league when Lawrence Taylor was available at the top of the draft. They didn't need an LB. But he was the best player available by far at #2 overall after the NO Saints drafted for need and took George Rogers. The Saints continued to mire in mediocrity while LT and his HOF career won two Super Bowls and wreaked absolute havoc on the NFC East for a decade. Its one example but it highlights a few points:

When drafting for 'positional need", your needs change by the time the draftee is ready to really contribute.

When you draft for need you pass on better players by design, leaving better players to drop to your competitors.

When you draft for need, the player doesn't actually fill the need an extremely large percent of the time. Even first rounders only become impact starters a low percentage of the time dropping precipitously after the top ten picks. When you draft for need, you plug players into positions without even knowing if they will play in the NFL.

If you end up with a logjam of good players at a certain position (good fortune indeed), then you can trade to another team to fill holes with legit contributors if needed. When you pass on good players to fill holes, you end up with less depth and balanced, but average talent, instead of finding log jams (too much talent) The Redskins did this when they sent Jay Schroeder to the Raiders for Jim Lachey.

In the end, over time, teams which use "need" as a factor in their drafting, end up with much more mediocre rosters, constantly plugging holes with draft picks that don't pan out, while teams that draft BPA find steals much more often and have fewer holes in their roster because more of their picks pan out over the long run.

Finally, none of this comparison in approaches matters if you cannot evaluate talent. But on an equal footing, evaluation wise, drafting BPA gets you better players more often and that's how you win. The Redskins FO alternates between BPA and need constantly and it shows they don't have a draft strategy at all. But their poor overall talent evaluation would mean they aren't going to succeed with either approach. Its the Steelers of the 90s, Giants and 49rs of the 80s, Cowboys of the late 80s early 90s, Eagles of the 2000's, Chiefs of the last 8 years, Pats during the Brady era, that all showed consistently drafting BPA was how they built winning rosters over a long period of time.

Giants of the 80’s as an example? F the Giants.

Redskins of the 80’s won more bowls and also drafted BPA (Beatherd!!!)

We want the same thing. My point is, I don't want their politics -- whatever they are -- or anything else -- sign-stealing scandals? -- distracting the team, the media, the fan base. There has been so GD much drama with this organization the last 30 years it's been maddening.
I'm sick of this team being the source of embarrassment about not just football, but SO MUCH else.
I want the only thing that people -- fans and talking heads -- talk about with this team is the football.

Harbaugh is worth the outside noise. He always wins. He’s going to be driven to win a Super Bowl or 2.

Who else would be better?

Literally?