Player Discussion: Neal Pionk Part 2

[Romang67]

I just don't think Pionk has enough hockey behind him for a long term deal to be worthwhile. Especially considering it would likely be driving the AAV up as it would not really provide Pionk, at 26 already, another chance at a significant payday.

I have no issue with 5 years but I think anything more is risky.

Yeah, there is obviously an inherent risk for Pionk (injury, less offensive chances with better players on D) to sign a shorter contract and hope for a later payday. On the other hand, he'll be 30, have a chance at another big payday, and will have that when the cap has likely started going up again.

I don't think it's impossible that there is a 4 year deal on the table for less money than a long term deal.

 

[DRW204]

I generally hate 5+ year deals to non-elite players, or guys not in their early 20s. Guys like kc and Ehlers for example are great long term deals since it's through their prime and both are extremely good. For pionk, last year was imo his first year career to date he was a high end top 4d. He's 26, might already be at his peak. i think a 4 year deal, as opoesed to 6-8 - where you're potentially getting (more) decline years - is safer.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I just don't think Pionk has enough hockey behind him for a long term deal to be worthwhile. Especially considering it would likely be driving the AAV up as it would not really provide Pionk, at 26 already, another chance at a significant payday.

I have no issue with 5 years but I think anything more is risky.

I actually think he’s a key player going forward more so than any of our D
I don’t follow advanced stats but to my way of thinking he was by FAR our best defenceman.
YMMV

 

[BoneDocUK]

Yeah, there is obviously an inherent risk for Pionk (injury, less offensive chances with better players on D) to sign a shorter contract and hope for a later payday. On the other hand, he'll be 30, have a chance at another big payday, and will have that when the cap has likely started going up again.

I don't think it's impossible that there is a 4 year deal on the table for less money than a long term deal.

I generally hate 5+ year deals to non-elite players, or guys not in their early 20s. Guys like kc and Ehlers for example are great long term deals since it's through their prime and both are extremely good. For pionk, last year was imo his first year career to date he was a high end top 4d. He's 26, might already be at his peak. i think a 4 year deal, as opoesed to 6-8 - where you're potentially getting (more) decline years - is safer.

Strong arguments in both these posts for a 4 year deal. Agree that it makes sense for the Jets, hopefully for Pionk also, and seems like it would work with the contention window(s) also.

 

[Mathil8]

I generally hate 5+ year deals to non-elite players, or guys not in their early 20s. Guys like kc and Ehlers for example are great long term deals since it's through their prime and both are extremely good. For pionk, last year was imo his first year career to date he was a high end top 4d. He's 26, might already be at his peak. i think a 4 year deal, as opoesed to 6-8 - where you're potentially getting (more) decline years - is safer.

Agreed, I don't like long term contracts for bottom 6/bottom pair players, but IMO Pionk doesn't fit in that classification. Wrt contract during prime years, I'm less worried about the number of years in a contract and more worried about what age range it encompasses. For Pionk I'd be looking at signing him to a 6 year deal taking him to 32, that way we get all of his prime years, and it should be safe to assume he'd be able to play at a high level up till 32 years of age.

Obviously we wouldn't want to sign him to a 2 year deal since that would take him straight to UFA, and a 3 year deal would be less than ideal since it would only include 1 UFA year. I see it as either a 1 year deal if we absolutely have to in order to fit Copp and him under the cap (which would suck since he'd be arbitration eligible and 1 year away from UFA, same position Copp is in now...), or a 4-6 year deal.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I suspect Pionk is traded prior to going to arbitration. We have added two top 4 dmen this off-season.

 

[Roughneck1]

I suspect Pionk is traded prior to going to arbitration. We have added two top 4 dmen this off-season.

And get rid of our best right Dman. I don’t think so. Copp is going before he does. I’m not the biggest fan of him either. I mean he’s good but he gets outmuscled down low and in front of the net. But he makes smart puck moving decisions. Jets need more of that not less.

 

[GNP]

I think to give Pionk term, is the answer to keep the AAV down. I would have no problem to sign him at 6yrs @ $ 5.8 to 6mil per year. If your trying to grind him down to 4 years or something, he'd likely want $ 6.5 mil or more.

Pionk is on the smaller size, but plays big, and I think he's our best defenseman, and the Jets should really try to sign him, and lock him up, and we'll have a great defense, and possibly a Cup contender.

 

[LowLefty]

I'd be shocked if he settled for a $24M contract.
The future is always uncertain in the NHL, more so for a small defenceman who will be over 30 when this contract ends. If he gets injured it could be his last, so long-term security is paramount.
If I were advising him, I would tell him not to settle for <$40M total and I would not be surprised if he is asking for $50M (over 7 years).

If I were advising him, I'd suggest he take anything close to $6M and run.
If he is signed to a short term deal, he will not look anywhere near as good in this new line up, as he did with the rag tag's.
He will have lost his window when all the stars were aligned. But even when the window is open that wide, you need to be realistic in your expectations (financially).

He is a small, relatively slow dman who tries to the physical but is really not very effective in that role.

 

[Huffer]

I cant see Pionk getting less than 6.5.

 

[tbcwpg]

I actually think he’s a key player going forward more so than any of our D
I don’t follow advanced stats but to my way of thinking he was by FAR our best defenceman.
YMMV

I think he was too but that doesn't mean I think his value increases because of it.

 

[surixon]

I generally hate 5+ year deals to non-elite players, or guys not in their early 20s. Guys like kc and Ehlers for example are great long term deals since it's through their prime and both are extremely good. For pionk, last year was imo his first year career to date he was a high end top 4d. He's 26, might already be at his peak. i think a 4 year deal, as opoesed to 6-8 - where you're potentially getting (more) decline years - is safer.

I've been pitching a 4 year deal myself.

 

[scelaton]

If I were advising him, I'd suggest he take anything close to $6M and run.
If he is signed to a short term deal, he will not look anywhere near as good in this new line up, as he did with the rag tag's.
He will have lost his window when all the stars were aligned. But even when the window is open that wide, you need to be realistic in your expectations (financially).

He is a small, relatively slow dman who tries to the physical but is really not very effective in that role.

Not sure what you were saying in your reply, so I will try to clarify.
If you look at the bottom 5 of the top-30 NHL D by cap hit, it is populated by the likes of Tory Krug and our own Josh Morrissey, small but skilled D at >$6M AAV. You want size-- look just below them at Tyler Myers at $6M. Be my guest...

Pionk has got every bit as much talent as the aforementioned, and room to grow. My point was not that he is in the $6M+ range, because that should be self evident, based both on his play and metrics. My point--and this is where maybe we agree--is that the future for him also brings risk. Hence, if I were advising him, I'd say he needs to lock in as much term as he can at the 6M+ range, and then run.

 

[tbcwpg]

I suspect Pionk is traded prior to going to arbitration. We have added two top 4 dmen this off-season.

I doubt it. Right now he's likely on the 2nd pairing with Dillon. I don't see him as expendable because of those trades and I doubt the Jets do either. They traded for Schmidt and Dillon to play with Morrisset and Pionk, respectively.

 

[Say What]

Agreed, but how does Nurses rumoured 8 x 9.25M contract affect Pionk's contract?

Likely not but if we want a longer term deal I wouldn't be surprised if his camp wants at least $7.5

It seems we may need some context here:

IMO, the Arbitration process will be earmarked by the fact that all Player’s ‘current’ Numbers & Statistics were generated in an artificial environment (against 6 out of a possible 30 teams; an unusual Industry anomaly).

The Legal Representatives realize this is an unprecedented situation. There’s no fair, or justifiable way to reward or suppress a Player, based on such incomplete data.
Travel, quality of opposition, Pandemic impact for/against certain teams/players; were only some of the occurring factors that will ultimately affect what an Organization/Player will rightfully pay/earn.

In my opinion, if a Player’s most recent Campaign (2020-2021 season) doesn’t align with their League/Career ‘norm’, I suspect the results/judgment will bare this within the context of the awarded Contract.

I personally believe, that many ‘fans’ will be surprised by the criteria that will be used to reach an unbiased median for all Parties; regarding NHL Arbitration decisions.

Time will tell.

 

[buggs]

I cant see Pionk getting less than 6.5.

I think in each and every single negotiation, except perhaps Wheeler's the negotiation goes something like this:

Agent: Well my player had a career year so we'd like to push for term and $8.5 per year

Chevy: But Mark's only making like $6 something

Agent: fair point but my guy is entering his career years with his best performance and he wants to play for the Jets. How about $7.5/yr?

Chevy: Mark's under contract for three more years for less than that.

Agent: well my guy had an excellent playoffs, managing the Oilers high powered pair. Can we consider $6.5?

Chevy: Did you see what Mark did all season?

Agent: Yes of course but we're not talking Mark. How about $6.5 with term or $6.0 on a shorter deal?

Chevy: did I mention Mark is making less than that?

Agent: ok, how about $5.75 for four years?

Chevy: deal.

 

[GreenLine]

I'm not on board with long term contracts for small offensive defensemen after they had one good season in the latter half of their twenties. He's not even useful on the powerplay.

Take it to arbitration and trade him next summer if he's not willing to sign cheap. Anything over 5.5 will age very poorly IMO.

 

[Jets 31]

I'm not on board with long term contracts for small offensive defensemen after they had one good season in the latter half of their twenties. He's not even useful on the powerplay.

Take it to arbitration and trade him next summer if he's not willing to sign cheap. Anything over 5.5 will age very poorly IMO.

Don't agree, Pionk is our best defenseman right now and the guy is tough as nails. Having said that 6 million would be a good deal but i wouldn't go much higher . Just because Edmonton is stupid doesn't mean Chevy is, that Nurse contract is beyond stupid.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Feel like this is playing out like Pionk will get a one year deal on a low amount and then they'll try to extend Copp before his hearing. Pionk will get the extension in 2022. Don't think Copp will get to Arb; signed or traded prior. Feel like it won't fit regardless and they'll have to trade Copp.

Could have been avoided if we signed Perreault instead of Stastny. Think we're a lot stronger with Copp and Perreault than we are with Stastny and a pick.

 

[LowLefty]

Not sure what you were saying in your reply, so I will try to clarify.
If you look at the bottom 5 of the top-30 NHL D by cap hit, it is populated by the likes of Tory Krug and our own Josh Morrissey, small but skilled D at >$6M AAV. You want size-- look just below them at Tyler Myers at $6M. Be my guest...

Pionk has got every bit as much talent as the aforementioned, and room to grow. My point was not that he is in the $6M+ range, because that should be self evident, based both on his play and metrics. My point--and this is where maybe we agree--is that the future for him also brings risk. Hence, if I were advising him, I'd say he needs to lock in as much term as he can at the 6M+ range, and then run.

What I'm saying is that I don't think he is worth the money that is being discussed in this thread -
He played well LY but against a backdrop of poor defenders, he looked better than he is.

My biggest concern is that he hasn't shown that style of game consistently. His history has not shown us that he is a physical dman or an aggressive one.

I'm concerned that he gave it his all LY - meaning everything he had to give and he did it knowing this year was payday year. Don't get me wrong - we want our players to leave it all out there. But, I don't think a player of his size (and speed) will be able to continue to play this style going forward. I don't believe his skill level alone warrants $6M+

I also have concerns that he will even try to play that type of game after he is signed. It's super risky for these smaller guys to play on the edge through their career - the odds are, it will catch up with him and I think he is smart enough to realize that. I feel he might revert back to a safer game after the contact is signed.

My opinion is just a hunch - I don't know what he will bring after the money is determined.
I hope I am wrong because the Jets are likely going to pay him - then again, Chevy may be struggling with the value here - I wouldn't be surprised

Not sure what your Myers comments means in relation to my post - I didn't suggest size is the key to choosing Dmen.
What I did say is that small / slow Dmen is a poor combination for a top 4 player.

 

[Jet]

I actually think he’s a key player going forward more so than any of our D
I don’t follow advanced stats but to my way of thinking he was by FAR our best defenceman.
YMMV

I agree. He's our best defenseman, and I think with a better corps and partner he will be even better this season.

 

[BigZ65]

Strong arguments in both these posts for a 4 year deal. Agree that it makes sense for the Jets, hopefully for Pionk also, and seems like it would work with the contention window(s) also.

To me the longer Pionk wants for term the lower the AAV goes and significantly. We also have to keep in mind that he had 2 years RFA ahead of him so there’s no gun to the Jets head here.

 

[BigZ65]

I generally hate 5+ year deals to non-elite players, or guys not in their early 20s. Guys like kc and Ehlers for example are great long term deals since it's through their prime and both are extremely good. For pionk, last year was imo his first year career to date he was a high end top 4d. He's 26, might already be at his peak. i think a 4 year deal, as opoesed to 6-8 - where you're potentially getting (more) decline years - is safer.

Very interesting points. Jets could play out this season and see where Pionk is at. Hell we could let him work his way to UFA and leave for the pay day as we’ll have our prospects coming in and he might have exhausted his prime in the next two seasons.

 

[BoneDocUK]

If I were advising him, I'd suggest he take anything close to $6M and run.
If he is signed to a short term deal, he will not look anywhere near as good in this new line up, as he did with the rag tag's.
He will have lost his window when all the stars were aligned. But even when the window is open that wide, you need to be realistic in your expectations (financially).

He is a small, relatively slow dman who tries to the physical but is really not very effective in that role.

Don’t see that at all.

I’d describe him as a smart, PMD with strong offensive skills who can get shots on net, has been our best PP D since he arrived, is an absolute bastard to play against and is quick enough and physical enough to neutralize some of the best players in the game, especially when not Forberted into his own zone for minutes at a time. I’d rate him comfortably above Schmidt at this point, who has now gone for a 3rd, twice, and makes nearly 6m.

Of course I’d rather not pay him 6m, but is he really less than 30% better than Tyson Barrie? Or 33% worse than Seth Jones?

 

[LowLefty]

Don’t see that at all.

I’d describe him as a smart, PMD with strong offensive skills who can get shots on net, has been our best PP D since he arrived, is an absolute bastard to play against and is quick enough and physical enough to neutralize some of the best players in the game, especially when not Forberted into his own zone for minutes at a time.

Of course I’d rather not pay him 6m, but is he really less than 30% better than Tyson Barrie? Or 33% worse than Seth Jones?

Well, he is small and relatively slow -
I do see some of what you noted -
My concern (and point) is will we continue to see it or was LY an outlier that was timed around his next contact.