OT: Nats, Wiz, O's, Ravens, Terps, Navy, Gtown, Mystics, Golf, Summer 2024 (Paris Olympics 2024 as well)

[Random schmoe]

And usiel didn't even go into the compensatory rounds, and what determines those picks. (And that the position of each pick and quantity are part of a NASA formula to determine the overall pool of bonus money a team can give out.) But wait, there's more... Teams can overspend totals, and any rounds after 10 player bonuses don't count against the total pool unless they're over a certain threshold.
But wait, there's more.
But I'll stop.

 

[usiel]

And usiel didn't even go into the compensatory rounds, and what determines those picks. (And that the position of each pick and quantity are part of a NASA formula to determine the overall pool of bonus money a team can give out.) But wait, there's more... Teams can overspend totals, and any rounds after 10 player bonuses don't count against the total pool unless they're over a certain threshold.
But wait, there's more.
But I'll stop.

No idea why it is that way. And we aren't even talking the international player stuff.

Don't have the original source but apparently there as a baseball america draft analysis that was referenced by a national blogger that from 2012 to 2022 total homers by national's drafted position players was like in the 30s. Basically Rizzo draft/developing futility on the position side. The next nearest team was just into the 100s.

 

[Random schmoe]

No idea why it is that way. And we aren't even talking the international player stuff.

Don't have the original source but apparently there as a baseball america draft analysis that was referenced by a national blogger that from 2012 to 2022 total homers by national's drafted position players was like in the 30s. Basically Rizzo draft/developing futility on the position side. The next nearest team was just into the 100s.

I'd believe it. Though in fairness for much of those years they were drafting in the back third of the first round, or lost their first for signing a top free agent. And the failure rate of even first rounders is crazy high, especially pitchers (which Rizzo frequently targeted.)

I actually just looked up their picks. Since 2012 they've only drafted 3 position players in the first round: Carter Kieboom (2016), Brady House (2021) and Elijah Green (2022). The latter two have of course not made the majors yet.

Their first rounders since 2015 have produced -0.3 WAR, second worst. (Number as of December 2022.)

 

[usiel]

I'd believe it. Though in fairness for much of those years they were drafting in the back third of the first round, or lost their first for signing a top free agent. And the failure rate of even first rounders is crazy high, especially pitchers (which Rizzo frequently targeted.)

I actually just looked up their picks. Since 2012 they've only drafted 3 position players in the first round: Carter Kieboom (2016), Brady House (2021) and Elijah Green (2022). The latter two have of course not made the majors yet.

Their first rounders since 2015 have produced -0.3 WAR, second worst. (Number as of December 2022.)

I do recall that when they came out of their rebuild and started competing for the division it seemed naturally to draft a lot of pitchers but still they are pretty awful developing. It has been a while but I do recall the nationals draft strategy being more old school type scouting versus analytics but maybe that has changed a bit.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The Nats traded some good pitchers like Gio for Adam Eaton.

Gray 25 year old SP was in the all star game today. A player we got from the Dodgers in the Max and Turner trade. So thats nice

 

[Kalopsia]

The Nats traded some good pitchers like Gio for Adam Eaton.

Gray 25 year old SP was in the all star game today. A player we got from the Dodgers in the Max and Turner trade. So thats nice

No idea why Gray made it instead of Candelario or Thomas who've been far and away the Nats best players this season. Hell, by fWAR Candelario's been the best 3B in the NL by a mile.

I'm really not impressed by Gray though. The ERA looks nice, but the numbers under the hood look like a mid-rotation starter at best. 1.44 WHIP, 10.3 K-BB%, and 4.44 xERA all say the ERA is gonna regress hard. Gore's pretty much the same story, albeit with higher strikeouts. This has always been the worst franchise in the majors at developing pitching. The only guys they ever drafted and developed into more than a fringe starter are Strasberg and Zimmermann, and Stras came pretty much pre-developed. I know they've finally become the last team to modernize and start using TrackMan and stuff like that, but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Come on someone has to have a link to the best explanation of the MLB draft.

like…how do you game the system?

 

[usiel]

Come on someone has to have a link to the best explanation of the MLB draft.

like…how do you game the system?

Maybe this list of the best drafting MLB GMs might be a start.

Masters of the draft: Ranking MLB GMs at their ability to find young talent

The MLB draft will be held in July. Which current MLB general managers have the best track records in finding and signing draft-eligible talent?

calltothepen.com

Though Rizzo is at #6 when you include the sure fire guys like Harper, Strasberg, Rendon (arguably).

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Im pretty sure this is the last season for the current MLB draft. The new CBA starts next season and the rules get even more confusing.

 

[usiel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/07/11/nationals-mlb-draft-day-three/

“That’s always a plus,” Kline said, referring to accomplished college hitters. “If you can get guys that are more experienced, especially a couple coming from those good programs, with ability, it only helps the younger kids, too. I look at it that way. It makes some of those younger kids, the minor league kids, it helps them to develop and make some better players, so they’re always an asset to the organization.”
Before the draft’s final round Tuesday, the Nationals announced they had already signed five of their picks: LSU second baseman Gavin Dugas (sixth round), Lamar catcher Ryan Snell (seventh), Iowa left-hander Jared Simpson (eighth), Vanderbilt righty Thomas Schultz (ninth) and Indiana shortstop Phillip Glasser (10th). The deadline for the Nationals’ picks to sign is July 25.


Kline called Dugas an “offensive” second baseman with a short, compact swing that will allow him to have success at the professional level, while Snell has “above-average defensive skills” behind the plate. Kline views Schultz as a starting pitcher with a knack for getting groundballs, with a slider-heavy mix; Kline wants to see him establish his fastball at the professional level. Kline hopes Simpson can tweak his delivery to make it more repeatable but likes that his fastball has life low in the strike zone. Glasser projects as a utility player, Kline said.

 

[usiel]

Half time for the Zard game agains San Antonio. Wemby not playing. Davis still the best player so far through to the half.

 

[Random schmoe]

Come on someone has to have a link to the best explanation of the MLB draft.

like…how do you game the system?

The most common way of 'gaming' the system is by drafting a guy in the first round that is willing to take a bonus less than the slot value for the pick, saving money under the total allowable. And then turning around and offering that savings to high schoolers drafted later that were expected to need higher bonuses than their slot values in order to forego college.

Not really an ideal example but it works...
In 2022, the Rangers drafted Kumar Rocker at #3 overall, for which the bonus slot value was $7.59M. Realistically, Rocker had been expected to go much later. MLB Pipeline had him as the 39th best prospect at the time, and he was actually out of school so didn't have a ton of leverage. If we say he would have otherwise gone 10th.. the slot value there is $4.98M. The Rangers actually signed Rocker for $5.2M, saving themselves $2.39M, and Rocker ensured he would get 'good' money, rather than risk falling much later in the draft.

Then in the fourth round they selected Brock Porter, who had been considered (by MLB Pipeline) the #11 overall prospect in the draft. He hadn't already been signed because he had 'firmly' committed to college. Well, the Rangers were able to offer him $3.7M (slot value of $560.2K) because they had saved so much on Rocker, and that $3.7M was enough to convince Porter to sign.

Much shorter example... in 2020 the Orioles drafted Heston Kjerstad at #2 overall (which was higher than he was expected to go), signed him for a little under slot, and then drafted and signed high schooler Coby Mayo in the 4th round. Mayo is one of their top prospects now.

Fun random tactic: Every year there are HSers who are so firmly committed to going to the college - and they make this known - that no team drafts them up top where their talent is warranted. (If a team doesn't sign a drafted player in the top 10 rounds, they actually lose that slot value from their overall pool of money, which they don't want to risk.) But so then teams will usually select those kids in the last few rounds, just in case the team ends up with extra money available, and/or the kid has a change of heart about college. The Nats just drafted (yesterday) the guy MLB Pipeline considers the 107th best prospect in the draft, in the 19th round (James Ellwanger, a high school pitcher). If for whatever reason say their 2nd rounder doesn't sign, they will have $2.14M unexpectedly available to spend elsewhere.

 

[usiel]

The most common way of 'gaming' the system is by drafting a guy in the first round that is willing to take a bonus less than the slot value for the pick, saving money under the total allowable. And then turning around and offering that savings to high schoolers drafted later that were expected to need higher bonuses than their slot values in order to forego college.

Not really an ideal example but it works...
In 2022, the Rangers drafted Kumar Rocker at #3 overall, for which the bonus slot value was $7.59M. Realistically, Rocker had been expected to go much later. MLB Pipeline had him as the 39th best prospect at the time, and he was actually out of school so didn't have a ton of leverage. If we say he would have otherwise gone 10th.. the slot value there is $4.98M. The Rangers actually signed Rocker for $5.2M, saving themselves $2.39M, and Rocker ensured he would get 'good' money, rather than risk falling much later in the draft.

Then in the fourth round they selected Brock Porter, who had been considered (by MLB Pipeline) the #11 overall prospect in the draft. He hadn't already been signed because he had 'firmly' committed to college. Well, the Rangers were able to offer him $3.7M (slot value of $560.2K) because they had saved so much on Rocker, and that $3.7M was enough to convince Porter to sign.

Much shorter example... in 2020 the Orioles drafted Heston Kjerstad at #2 overall (which was higher than he was expected to go), signed him for a little under slot, and then drafted and signed high schooler Coby Mayo in the 4th round. Mayo is one of their top prospects now.

Fun random tactic: Every year there are HSers who are so firmly committed to going to the college - and they make this known - that no team drafts them up top where their talent is warranted. (If a team doesn't sign a drafted player in the top 10 rounds, they actually lose that slot value from their overall pool of money, which they don't want to risk.) But so then teams will usually select those kids in the last few rounds, just in case the team ends up with extra money available, and/or the kid has a change of heart about college. The Nats just drafted (yesterday) the guy MLB Pipeline considers the 107th best prospect in the draft, in the 19th round (James Ellwanger, a high school pitcher). If for whatever reason say their 2nd rounder doesn't sign, they will have $2.14M unexpectedly available to spend elsewhere.

Thank for volunteering for the upcoming 'gaming' post for international signees.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Baseball is so strange. Kudos to those of you who actually have the patience and concentration to understand and follow this system.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Baseball is so strange. Kudos to those of you who actually have the patience and concentration to understand and follow this system.

Crazy convoluted system…..

 

[John Price]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

Went to my first semi-pro soccer game last night. Probably my last as well. My oldest daughter had a good time though and got to meet a local sports celebrity.

 

[usiel]

Baseball is so strange. Kudos to those of you who actually have the patience and concentration to understand and follow this system.

Yeah I had heard it could be no higher than 10th. This years draft was particularly rich due to Covid. Right now they are the fourth worse team in MLB.

 

[g00n]

TD, extra point, and a field goal

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Yeah I had heard it could be no higher than 10th. This years draft was particularly rich due to Covid. Right now they are the fourth worse team in MLB.

This is a tough break for the Nats 1st year of new draft rules.
The Os played the rebuild prefect before the rule changes

 

[EroCaps]

Baseball is so strange. Kudos to those of you who actually have the patience and concentration to understand and follow this system.

What a lame f***ing business model.

 

[Kalopsia]

What a lame f***ing business model.

It’s the baseball equivalent of using harsher prison sentences to try to deter drug use. If you want to change the fact that a significant portion of the league is tanking in any given season, you’ll need to make systemic changes to how the league is run. They need a salary cap and an international draft so that teams without super deep pockets don’t need to tank for years to build a roster that can compete with the financial giants, and they need a salary minimum so that cheapskate owners can’t use their teams as a a leach to syphon money from the league through revenue sharing. With the lottery rule the teams that want to win are just gonna have to tank longer, and the teams that don’t care about winning will just keep doing what they’re doing.

 

[Cush]

 

[usiel]

It’s the baseball equivalent of using harsher prison sentences to try to deter drug use. If you want to change the fact that a significant portion of the league is tanking in any given season, you’ll need to make systemic changes to how the league is run. They need a salary cap and an international draft so that teams without super deep pockets don’t need to tank for years to build a roster that can compete with the financial giants, and they need a salary minimum so that cheapskate owners can’t use their teams as a a leach to syphon money from the league through revenue sharing. With the lottery rule the teams that want to win are just gonna have to tank longer, and the teams that don’t care about winning will just keep doing what they’re doing.

For me it is a bit of a shot at the small market MLB teams as well as something the owners could give in negotiations to the MLBPA.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I love it. He’s such a new way of looking at things for this team. No chance the Grunfeld/Sheppard regime takes this kid. Zero.

They’d have played the safe college kid. Walker, is my guess. Or Wallace or Howard. Possibly Dick.

This is great. Really great.