Nashville Predators talk - The Offseason

[Predsanddead24]

What does "handle" mean, though? The franchise won't be moved to Atlanta. But the Arena won't be full for games either. So they won't be making as much money as they could be making. And I think that's a big thing for most business models, right? They not only want to make as much money as possible, they also want to have a growth curve. Nobody wants to see the revenue dip or linger below capacity if it doesn't have to.

For me it means without any adverse effects outside of owners pocket books.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

For me it means without any adverse effects outside of owners pocket books.

Except I think they do care enough about their pocket books, right? The only way that might change is if Haslam brings in some new perspective and thinks that tanking for a superstar is the right way to get a championship and he wants one badly enough that he's willing to personally bankroll it.

Anyway, I think there are adverse effects from an un-full arena, such as a few emptier seats in the restaurants and shops nearby, etc. There's a small adverse trickle-down outside of owners pocket books. Again, not enough that there will be any talk of moving or anything anymore. But it wouldn't be JUST the owners who take a hit.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Except I think they do care enough about their pocket books, right? The only way that might change is if Haslam brings in some new perspective and thinks that tanking for a superstar is the right way to get a championship and he wants one badly enough that he's willing to personally bankroll it.

Anyway, I think there are adverse effects from an un-full arena, such as a few emptier seats in the restaurants and shops nearby, etc. There's a small adverse trickle-down outside of owners pocket books. Again, not enough that there will be any talk of moving or anything anymore. But it wouldn't be JUST the owners who take a hit.

I don't think anything on Broadway is going to be affected a drop in attendance by the Preds. The Preds could move away and downtown Nashville would still print money. Which sort of ties into my point that the situation is completely different than the early days. Unlike when we first started and the Preds were the main draw to a pretty desolate Broadway it's the opposite now and Broadway is the bigger draw and the Preds are a thing you can do to kick off the evening. The market just fundamentally the same anymore. The team doesn't need to rely on true fans to stay afloat as there are plenty of other revenue streams available to them.

I do agree that the wild card is Haslam. Not every owner views maximizing revenue as the primary goal of a sports team but we have no idea where he stands on the spectrum. His brother certainly hasn't had any issue taking a tanking approach to the Browns at least but the NFL is a totally different beast.

 

[Armourboy]

If we tank it will be with the owners blessing and understanding what is coming, until that point is reached it ain't happening.

 

[hido]

Obviously none of us are privy to the financials but I just really don't buy the market can't handle a tank argument. Bridgestone Arena is one of the highest revenue arenas for concerts in the country and the ownership gets a part of that. Corporate seats will still sell to try and wine and dine people regardless of team performance and there has been a huge shift to prioritizing that in recent years. Out of towners will still make it a destination trip to see their team play. I think Porter is right that ownership might not be willing to leave money on the table but that is different from it not being possible.

With NSC you're conflating primary ticket sales with secondary ticket sales. While their are cheap tickets on stubhub if you look at direct ticket sales they are still doing well. Maybe that changes if they continue to struggle but it doesn't seem to be an issue yet.

This is a hyper-local post and not aimed at fans that don't live here: I'm not saying that downtown will shrivel up and die or that the Preds will fold if they suck for eight years. That's silly. Bridgestone IS one of the most successful arenas in the WORLD (I moved here in '99 and it's crazy to say that) and the Preds, under a separate LLC, manage it and get a cut of everything in there, including ticket sales. It's a cash cow (both Bridgestone and downtown).

At the same time, if they are looking at a 5-7 year "tank" (and I am assuming tank means 30-38 wins a year) then there is going to be so little interest in this team that even this message board is going to have about four posts a month. I mean, if Nashville wasn't such a huge destination for tourists, on down seasons the Titans and Preds would probably be at about 60% capacity, at best. And I can assure that wining and dining a client at a game by a bottom-feeder team isn't how it works. You just give the tickets to your staff and take the client to a nice dinner instead.

I've had my seats for over ten years and I love 'em. My company has advertised with the team for almost two decades. If I knew that they were going to suck until 2030, I don't know if I would want to allocate all that money towards it. Especially seeing as that somehow we'd probably whiff on the "sure thing" top five pick because, well, Perds. I guess that makes me a fair-weather fan, but I can root just as hard from my sofa. Hell, my wife got so mad early this season that she was ready to dump the tickets then!

Overall, I like what the team is doing. I enjoyed last season, didn't enjoy the playoffs. But I still feel that I got value out of my personal tickets and our ad buys. And to show that I do have a personal perspective on this, I have no problem with them trading Saros if they cannot work out a logical deal or there is a monster trade available (which I do not see, personally). I could handle a little pain to get back to the upper echelon in the next 1-3 years. But if the plan is to magically be able to jettison every "NMC/NTC" and a bunch of prospects to draft 1-5 for the next couple of years and then wait and see if the 18-year-olds turn into superstars by the turn of the decade? No thanks.

I reserve the right to completely contradict everything I said!

 

[AintLifeGrand]

Also, I'm not even kidding when I say that I would try to offer sheet Anton Lundell at $9 mil. It's a 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. It may sound risky, but I'm telling you this guy is Barkov-lite. He's so good.

Trade Saros to NJD for the 10th OA, and boom, we're back in the 1st round. Also, we have three 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders, I think it's ok, if we give up one of each.

i think Parsinnen could be our barkov lite

he like lundell had a big year 2 regression

I think Parsinnenn is low key one of our highest upside players

 

[Scoresberg]

i think Parsinnen could be our barkov lite

he like lundell had a big year 2 regression

I think Parsinnenn is low key one of our highest upside players

I agree about Pärssinen having a higher upside many think but I don't think he classifies as "Barkov-lite". Maybe a "Barkov-lite-lite", haha, which is still good and useful.

 

[herzausstein]

I personally see Pärssinen as more of a Colton Sissons type player (30ish points). Maybe he can shoot the gap between barkov and sissons and end up closer to 50 a season but I'm not sure he is gonna get that opportunity here

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I personally see Pärssinen as more of a Colton Sissons type player (30ish points). Maybe he can shoot the gap between barkov and sissons and end up closer to 50 a season but I'm not sure he is gonna get that opportunity here

The way he waltzed in at first and got that 25pts in the first half-season, I thought for sure he was one his way to the land of a 50-60 pts #2C. Then the injuries, the yo-yo treatment this year... I no longer have any idea. It would be a real shame if the way we handled him caused that much of a derailment to his career... I like to think that if a player is going to make it, they aren't THAT susceptible to a single season of mismanagement. I guess we'll see what's in store for him next year, right now my expectations are very minimal.

 

[weeze]

If we tank it will be with the owners blessing and understanding what is coming, until that point is reached it ain't happening.

Just because you tank doesn't guarantee a #1 pick! From 2013 to 2021 the last place team won the lottery twice! Since 2022 forward and the rule change they have won 2 out of 3 times and 13 out of 30 since 1995.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Just because you tank doesn't guarantee a #1 pick! From 2013 to 2021 the last place team won the lottery twice! Since 2022 forward and the rule change they have won 2 out of 3 times and 13 out of 30 since 1995.

On top of which, it's probably under 50% that you get a true Franchise superstar out of even a #1 overall pick. For every McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, Matthews... there is also a Lafreniere, Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, etc. So if it's less than 50% you even get the #1 pick, and less than 50% you get the superstar caliber guy even if you do... well... it's certainly not great odds.

Except for the really good ones like McDavid/Crosby types, I guess we generally know they are coming a few years in advance, so you could certainly "target" your tank year a little to try to maximize the odds anyway.

 

[triggrman]

Preds new owner is paying a lot of money for this team. He's not going to agree to tank right away.

 

[weeze]

Preds new owner is paying a lot of money for this team. He's not going to agree to tank right away.

True! What person wants to spend Hundreds of Millions on something to watch it falter, and on purpose! And then possibly lose money! People who have and make money, tend to not like to lose it. Especially a lot of it. Or so I am told...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

One thing that makes me a little optimistic is that there haven't been any peeps about Carrier? It's under 3 weeks until free agency now. I honestly thought we'd see him locked up early, I was thinking the organization was a lot more fond of him than I am.

(Did I just jinx things? )

 

[darth5]

I think this team still needs retooling, we don't have the right assets in place to exceed 2nd round of playoffs (if everything goes well). either by drafting a pro caliber C or trading picks/prospects for same.

 

[Softball99]

One thing that makes me a little optimistic is that there haven't been any peeps about Carrier? It's under 3 weeks until free agency now. I honestly thought we'd see him locked up early, I was thinking the organization was a lot more fond of him than I am.

(Did I just jinx things? )

That extra year for his rights may be tradeable on a sign and trade

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

That extra year for his rights may be tradeable on a sign and trade

I doubt there is anybody out there looking to sign Carrier for 8 years.

 

[herzausstein]

Does re-signing Carrier condemn us to a Lauzon-Carrier 2nd pairing? If so, I want no part of it.

 

[101st_fan]

Tanks result in lower attendance .... lower attendance means less revenue ... less revenue means less money for players and dependence on finding that solution in the draft ... that usually takes years for a player to develop which lengthens the tank ... so teams instinctively strive to remain in contention for the playoffs rather than prolonged bottom dwelling.

That's without getting into the structural sales tax differences between Preds and concert tickets and the revenue splits of arena generated revenues that make a significant drop in attendance painful on the bottom line for both the city and team.

 

[101st_fan]

I think this team still needs retooling, we don't have the right assets in place to exceed 2nd round of playoffs (if everything goes well). either by drafting a pro caliber C or trading picks/prospects for same.

Every team needs retooling to some degree. Even the Oilers have serious questions about some aspects of their lineup (blueline after their first pair, goaltending) after years of top five picks and generational talents up front.

 

[herzausstein]

Laine supposedly wants out of CBus. He is an interesting piece.

Pros
Good goalscorer
Doesnt get a ton of penalties against him
Acquisition cost should be reasonable given the cons

Cons
High caphit
Inability to stay healthy
Not great defensively
Looks like a goat

 

[BigFatCat999]

That makes it all the more amazing that the Florida Panthers are able to stay in SFL when you watch one of their games on TV the arena always looks about half empty/full. Although according to Hockey-Reference.com the Preds (Cap 17,113) had 17,306 avg for all home games. Florida Panthers (Cap 19,250) had 18,632 avg. Florida has the 7th largest arena in the NHL. How crazy is that! While Nashville is 3rd from the bottom of the list for capacity. With Arizona and Winnipeg only smaller. According to this site, only 10 teams were at 100.0% Capacity or more for the season and the Preds made that list.

Bridgestone Arena; It's not the size, but how you use it.

 

[101st_fan]

Laine supposedly wants out of CBus. He is an interesting piece.

Pros
Good goalscorer
Doesnt get a ton of penalties against him
Acquisition cost should be reasonable given the cons

Cons
High caphit
Inability to stay healthy
Not great defensively
Looks like a goat

Missed 25+ game seasons for each of the last four seasons. Hell of a scorer when he's on the ice ..... but .......

 

[herzausstein]

Missed 25+ game seasons for each of the last four seasons. Hell of a scorer when he's on the ice ..... but .......

Which is why id think he should be an affordable acquisition but alot of risk there

 

[101st_fan]

Which is why id think he should be an affordable acquisition but alot of risk there

Affordable trade assets, not so affordable salary for number of games on average.