Nashville Predators talk - The offseason.

[Scoresberg]

What does a realistic package look like for Marner? A one where we don’t mortgage the whole future.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

What does a realistic package look like for Marner? A one where we don’t mortgage the whole future.

I think there is too much range in the asset value of Marner right now for anybody to guess. That's why it's all over the map in the various Marner trade threads. We simply can't peg anything "realistic" without knowing what Marner's intentions are. Since he has a full NMC and is currently playing on a good team in his home town, I guess if we want to go down the most realistic path, then... he's simply not going to be available, period.

Even if he's willing to waive his NMC and actively desires a trade out of the Toronto media spotlight, then it still depends significantly on how many places he'd be willing to waive for, and whether or not we'd be on the list. If we're the ONLY place he wants to go to, then that's great leverage for us in any trade talks. If there are 10 other teams, or if we're not on the list at all, then that changes things again.

What we can do is say something along the lines of "what is the most we'd be willing to give up"... which almost certainly won't end up being "realistic", but at least will serve as something indicative of our level of interest.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

And per the above, I'd be willing to give up something along the lines of 1st '24+Top Prospect+throw-ins.

Never the 1st '25... that could be a lottery pick.

"Top Prospect" could include guys who haven't quite popped onto our radar for roster spots yet - so Wood, Kemell are not off limits to me. And anybody on down from them. Whereas I think we can easily imagine L'Heureux or Molendyk sliding on to our roster and I would keep those two off limits amongst our top guys.

The "throw-ins" are guys we don't see having any significant future impact here, but who should nevertheless have some little value or upside to an external buyer... this is the Fabbro/Tomasino/Novak types. Or lesser prospects, 2nd round picks, etc.

I'm not inclined to trade a goalie for Marner. I like our goalie situation and don't believe we'll have trouble extending Saros on a team-friendly deal that will ensure we maintain strength in that position for the forseeable future. Which I like. But if I'm wrong and extending Saros becomes a problem, then a simple Saros/Marner swap would be fine with me also.

This is all very Preds-perspective focused, however. I still don't understand why Toronto would trade Marner for prospects when they should be trying to contend, nor that in the scenario where Saros is seeking a salary level that we won't meet why any other team should want to sign him for that magnitude of contract either. The argument in Toronto for trading Marner for prospects seems to be that they can then re-allocate his Cap hit on signing other players they need as free agents. I don't know, but overpaying players - which is definitely what you'd have to do to get good ones this summer when so many teams have so much money to spend - seems like a dangerous route for the Leafs to go back down to me.

 

[herzausstein]

Sissons - we need to have a good vet or two in the bottom 6. We move him and that will leave: McCarron, Smith, and/or Jankowski to lead the bottom 6. So unless the return is overkill to the point we can go out and comfortably replace him with a NHL level vet for leadership, instead of players that should rotate in and out of the lineup, then I don't think it will happen.

 

[Scoresberg]

Yeah, I think Saros has to be the main piece going back. Otherwise, it will be too much of future pieces.

 

[glenngineer]

What does a realistic package look like for Marner? A one where we don’t mortgage the whole future.

Saros, Fabbro and Tomasino.

 

[Predsanddead24]

If we’re going the non Saros route I wonder if Toronto would be interested in something like 1st + high end prospect (Molendyk, Kemell, Wood, LHeuruex) + Nyquist. Pick and prospect helps rebuild their prospect pool and Nyquist helps fill in some of the production they lost from Marner in the short term. That may be a tough pill to swallow for us but we’d potentially be selling high on Nyquist and early hype around prospects. Also has the potential to backfire tremendously true but that’s likely true of whatever trade we can realistically pull off.

 

[Armourboy]

I think if you send a prospect back its one like Tomasino or even Afanasyev, there is no way in heck I'm spending a guy we feel good about at the NHL. From there I'd be willing to part with a roster player not named Sissons or Evangelista.

Also if he doesn't come signed to a reasonable offer as part of the deal then I'm not interested. Not giving up assets for 1 year of a player that is going to be look to be a hired gun and wants a silly contract.

 

[token grinder]

Saros, Fabbro and Tomasino.

Is this the new Erat, Suter and a first from all those years ago?

 

[BigFatCat999]

Ports, I could not disagree with you more on the price for Marner. I’m setting price at Saros, Tomasino, and if there is 3 mil retention, then a 1st

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Ports, I could not disagree with you more on the price for Marner. I’m setting price at Saros, Tomasino, and if there is 3 mil retention, then a 1st

Hm, I don't read that as any kind of disagreement at all, however. Unless you are saying you'd trade Saros even if he would agree to a hugely team-friendly extension with us. But otherwise it's about the same as what I would do. Tomasino and our 1st are peanuts to me.

 

[BigFatCat999]

Hm, I don't read that as any kind of disagreement at all, however. Unless you are saying you'd trade Saros even if he would agree to a hugely team-friendly extension with us. But otherwise it's about the same as what I would do. Tomasino and our 1st are peanuts to me.

So my autism that gives me difficulty understanding people strikes again. Ok, cool.

 

[herzausstein]

If Saros isn't the main part for Marner, I'd imagine they would want a mixture of futures and current players unless they're completely certain they can get Guentzel they'd be losing a significant amount of offense.

Nyquist/Evangelista to recoupe some offense
Then a mixture of futures

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

It will also be interesting to see what Draisatl extends for... or if he doesn't extend, keeping a ton of money in reserve to throw at him next summer. Marner is good, but Draisatl would be a lot better IMO. It's absolutely astonishing that Draisatl has 101 pts in 61 playoff games. That's insane. I think he's worth bidding $16M on as a UFA, so the pricetag for the Oilers to extend him should be astronomical if they bow out again in the playoffs this year. It would kind of suck to put all of our money into Marner, only to find out Draisatl (or Rantanen) end up on the UFA market from teams that can't afford them anymore when we would have had tons of money to throw around otherwise.

 

[Scoresberg]

If Saros isn't the main part for Marner, I'd imagine they would want a mixture of futures and current players unless they're completely certain they can get Guentzel they'd be losing a significant amount of offense.

Nyquist/Evangelista to recoupe some offense
Then a mixture of futures

Trading Nyquist AND Evangelista for Marner seems contadictrory. Evangelista’s already a 40-point player for us with super-limited ice-time and obviously still growing. He might be a 60-70p player one day.

Also, Marner’s never going to hit 100 for us and in the West. He’s more of a PPG player in Nsh. So, trading Nyquist (40p) + Evangelista (40p) doesn’t sound like a deal where we are getting the needed offensive pop.

 

[herzausstein]

Edmonton will be interesting to watch this offseason. They have about 10 million in capspace but only 14 players signed and Campbell has been a disaster. I don't see any big contract extensions needed for RFAs this season so they basically need to just fill out their roster and try to upgrade where possible.

Next offseason though... Draisaitl as a UFA and Bouchard as a RFA with arbitration rights. Bouchard is coming off a point per game regular season and 20 points in 12 playoff games. He is their #1 RHD though when your other options are Ceci and Desharnais/Kulak that isn't stiff competition. Probably looking at 20-24 million between the two which is a massive change from the 12.4 million they are paying now.

 

[herzausstein]

Trading Nyquist AND Evangelista for Marner seems contadictrory. Evangelista’s already a 40-point player for us with super-limited ice-time and obviously still growing. He might be a 60-70p player one day.

Also, Marner’s never going to hit 100 for us and in the West. He’s more of a PPG player in Nsh. So, trading Nyquist (40p) + Evangelista (40p) doesn’t sound like a deal where we are getting the needed offensive pop.

I meant one or the other. Nyquist is also on the verge of retirement being 35 next season so moving him would be more of a resetting for the future. Trading out a 35 year old coming off a career year that we could probably get a 1st+ for right now for a 27 year old who typically gets near 100 pts. I expect marners production to drop some but even dropped it would probably be more than Nyquist's career year production.

Evangelista would be if they preferred someone young with potential instead of the more proven asset. In which case, I think we keep tomasino and slide him into Evangelista's current spot until Kemmell is NHL ready. Tomasino's production rates are as good or better than Evangelista. It is just the other aspects of his game that are more questionable.

 

[Armourboy]

I meant one or the other. Nyquist is also on the verge of retirement being 35 next season so moving him would be more of a resetting for the future. Trading out a 35 year old coming off a career year that we could probably get a 1st+ for right now for a 27 year old who typically gets near 100 pts. I expect marners production to drop some but even dropped it would probably be more than Nyquist's career year production.

Evangelista would be if they preferred someone young with potential instead of the more proven asset. In which case, I think we keep tomasino and slide him into Evangelista's current spot until Kemmell is NHL ready. Tomasino's production rates are as good or better than Evangelista. It is just the other aspects of his game that are more questionable.

I don't see Trotz doing that swap, they like Evangelista, they haven't been impressed with Tomasino.

Feels like I've said it 100 times already but I think Trotz is willing to move about anyone but the young guys who seem to fit the style they want to play. It does no good to bring in good players only to give away the guys you think will also be good players for you. A guy like Tomasino is going to be a good player for someone, I just don't think it will be us.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Ports, I could not disagree with you more on the price for Marner. I’m setting price at Saros, Tomasino, and if there is 3 mil retention, then a 1st

Why would we care about retention for a guy 1 year from UFA...unless you're talking about him signing an extension with Toronto and then being traded at $3M retention. There is no way one year of $3M retained on Marner is worth a 1st in addition to already giving up Saros and Tomasino.

 

[originalpredfan]

My opinion only, but I can't see Tomasino's ceiling being only as a third line forward and we have enough of those. I only believe his value to us is as a trade chip.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Trading Nyquist AND Evangelista for Marner seems contadictrory. Evangelista’s already a 40-point player for us with super-limited ice-time and obviously still growing. He might be a 60-70p player one day.

Also, Marner’s never going to hit 100 for us and in the West. He’s more of a PPG player in Nsh. So, trading Nyquist (40p) + Evangelista (40p) doesn’t sound like a deal where we are getting the needed offensive pop.

Gus and Luke are better production/$$ than Marner. Even though it's two lesser pieces for one I agree this would be a silly trade base.

 

[Kat Predator]

Hopefully, they don't put in the tape of Draisaitl's defense after trading for him. I mean, he'd be a hell of an addition in Milwaukee, but that'd be a shame.

 

[Top 6 Spaling]

Gus and Luke are better production/$$ than Marner. Even though it's two lesser pieces for one I agree this would be a silly trade base.

I don't think there's a Marner deal to be made unless there's an extension in place (for a rental at that price, I'd offer very, very little). In a world where Marner will take a $9m/7year deal with our lower taxes, I'd give up quite a bit for him. If he's stuck on $13m/year, we shouldn't be giving up any major pieces (Saros/Evang/1sts/etc) for him.

 

[BigFatCat999]

I don't think there's a Marner deal to be made unless there's an extension in place (for a rental at that price, I'd offer very, very little). In a world where Marner will take a $9m/7year deal with our lower taxes, I'd give up quite a bit for him. If he's stuck on $13m/year, we shouldn't be giving up any major pieces (Saros/Evang/1sts/etc) for him.

I just looked it up. Ontario millionaires is 55.62% that is a hell of a pay raise

 

[BigFatCat999]

I think the Preds a lot more money than we think.

The press and us are saying the Preds need to get bigger on defense. Trotz is saying we need to get younger. Look at the freaking redwoods that are on the right side of Milwaukee. Livingston is 6 foot 4 and short compared to Prokop and Matier. Livingston is 25 Prokop is 22. Matier is 21.

Maybe the answer on defense is in Milwaukee

Fabbro
Livingstone
Competition for third

Also, we need to pay attention to June 15 if Philly buys out Ryan Johansen, the Preds get a retained salary slot back and an extra 2.6 million on the cap