Nashville Predators talk - The Offseason

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ILikeItILoveIt

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Apr 2, 2010
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We can debate the logic of the Trotz move forever. I'd like the latitude to view it emotionally.

Why are there so many "problem" players for us, usually highly skilled but don't buy in to our "identity", who go to other teams and excel? (ex. Rads / Fiala / Duchene).

I'm tired of watching ex-preds succeed. The Stars with Suter, Smith, and Duchene. The Kings with Fiala and Arvy. Seattle with Tolvy. The Avs with Girard.

I know, not all those guys are great, but they're all better than what we replaced them with. Yes there were circumstances surrounding their exits that we didn't create (ex. Suter), but the fact remains. We had talented players who ended up succeeding after they left us. We couldn't or wouldn't find a way to retain them.

And what's been our reward? We've maintained the purity of our "identity". We've purged the locker room of the "problems".

Since 2017, Identity = LOSING. If the prized identity, we cherish so greatly, led to success, then by all means, purge the heretics. But that's not what happens. We end up with admirable players who do their best, but they aren't good enough. And we multiple these types. It's not enough to have a Sissons. We have to also have Smith, and McC, and Sherwood, and Janky.

Trotz is about to do it again to Askarov. You listen to people instead the organization and the fix is in. Askarov HAS the talent but he's "immature". Saros is the type of person we admire. Shuts up. Does his job. Works hard. Overcomes his lack of size. Plus, he's "elite". New definition of Elite for the 2023-2024 Season = 30th in Save % and 30th in Goals Against Average. Career playoff series won = Blutarsky-esque 0.0.

I like Saros. I think he's a Top 10-to-15 goalie over the last 4 years. But he's peaked and we're about to marry him for another 7 years and move Askarov, who can't wait 7 years.

Is Askarov great? Not yet. What's his ceiling? High. Higher than Saros. What's his floor? Low. Could implode due to his "immaturity".

But the bottom line is, Trotz loves players like Saros and doesn't trust players like Askarov. It just so happens that everyone this organization doesn't trust or feels like doesn't buy in, is talented.

Maybe the reason they all don't buy in is because what they're selling doesn't work.

OK, that was an emotional rant. My logical side disagrees with my emotional side. I love Barry Trotz. Barry is actually a friend. We're not best buds but we've worked together on a few projects and I talk to him now and then. There is no better human being. I want him to be right, and my emotions to be wrong. I'm just getting old and I'm running out of "next year's". I'm Day One, been to almost every game for 25 years, and watched our uncanny inability to recognize, draft, develop, or trade for, dynamic Top 6 forwards. #9 is one of the few exceptions but that credit goes to Martin Erat. Had he not demanded a trade deadline trade, Poile never would have moved him and we would be marveling at Forsberg' Washington career.
 

glenngineer

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Jan 27, 2010
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Duchene was, allegedly, let go due to an off-ice attitude, the details of which none of us are fully privy to. At the time, almost this entire board did back flips in joy over the breaking up of the “country club,” with most recognizing that there would be some financial pain. And now, basically because of one OT goal, he’s the most wronged man in the history of modern hockey? You can definitely tell it’s a really boring time of the year for us.

All that being said, it would have been a whole lot cooler if BT had found someone besides Dallas to give the guy to!
I hated the move the moment it happened. It had nothing to do with the OT goal.
 

Armourboy

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Jan 20, 2014
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We can debate the logic of the Trotz move forever. I'd like the latitude to view it emotionally.

Why are there so many "problem" players for us, usually highly skilled but don't buy in to our "identity", who go to other teams and excel? (ex. Rads / Fiala / Duchene).

I'm tired of watching ex-preds succeed. The Stars with Suter, Smith, and Duchene. The Kings with Fiala and Arvy. Seattle with Tolvy. The Avs with Girard.

I know, not all those guys are great, but they're all better than what we replaced them with. Yes there were circumstances surrounding their exits that we didn't create (ex. Suter), but the fact remains. We had talented players who ended up succeeding after they left us. We couldn't or wouldn't find a way to retain them.

And what's been our reward? We've maintained the purity of our "identity". We've purged the locker room of the "problems".

Since 2017, Identity = LOSING. If the prized identity, we cherish so greatly, led to success, then by all means, purge the heretics. But that's not what happens. We end up with admirable players who do their best, but they aren't good enough. And we multiple these types. It's not enough to have a Sissons. We have to also have Smith, and McC, and Sherwood, and Janky.

Trotz is about to do it again to Askarov. You listen to people instead the organization and the fix is in. Askarov HAS the talent but he's "immature". Saros is the type of person we admire. Shuts up. Does his job. Works hard. Overcomes his lack of size. Plus, he's "elite". New definition of Elite for the 2023-2024 Season = 30th in Save % and 30th in Goals Against Average. Career playoff series won = Blutarsky-esque 0.0.

I like Saros. I think he's a Top 10-to-15 goalie over the last 4 years. But he's peaked and we're about to marry him for another 7 years and move Askarov, who can't wait 7 years.

Is Askarov great? Not yet. What's his ceiling? High. Higher than Saros. What's his floor? Low. Could implode due to his "immaturity".

But the bottom line is, Trotz loves players like Saros and doesn't trust players like Askarov. It just so happens that everyone this organization doesn't trust or feels like doesn't buy in, is talented.

Maybe the reason they all don't buy in is because what they're selling doesn't work.

OK, that was an emotional rant. My logical side disagrees with my emotional side. I love Barry Trotz. Barry is actually a friend. We're not best buds but we've worked together on a few projects and I talk to him now and then. There is no better human being. I want him to be right, and my emotions to be wrong. I'm just getting old and I'm running out of "next year's". I'm Day One, been to almost every game for 25 years, and watched our uncanny inability to recognize, draft, develop, or trade for, dynamic Top 6 forwards. #9 is one of the few exceptions but that credit goes to Martin Erat. Had he not demanded a trade deadline trade, Poile never would have moved him and we would be marveling at Forsberg' Washington career.
Your emotion isn't wrong, and even if it was under Poile, the franchise as a whole has always taken the safe way. We forget that Trotz cut his teeth here for 10 years so while he is a different man is he really going to be a different GM?
 

nullednumbed

Registered User
Jun 27, 2022
144
171
We can debate the logic of the Trotz move forever. I'd like the latitude to view it emotionally.

Why are there so many "problem" players for us, usually highly skilled but don't buy in to our "identity", who go to other teams and excel? (ex. Rads / Fiala / Duchene).

I'm tired of watching ex-preds succeed. The Stars with Suter, Smith, and Duchene. The Kings with Fiala and Arvy. Seattle with Tolvy. The Avs with Girard.

I know, not all those guys are great, but they're all better than what we replaced them with. Yes there were circumstances surrounding their exits that we didn't create (ex. Suter), but the fact remains. We had talented players who ended up succeeding after they left us. We couldn't or wouldn't find a way to retain them.

And what's been our reward? We've maintained the purity of our "identity". We've purged the locker room of the "problems".

Since 2017, Identity = LOSING. If the prized identity, we cherish so greatly, led to success, then by all means, purge the heretics. But that's not what happens. We end up with admirable players who do their best, but they aren't good enough. And we multiple these types. It's not enough to have a Sissons. We have to also have Smith, and McC, and Sherwood, and Janky.

Trotz is about to do it again to Askarov. You listen to people instead the organization and the fix is in. Askarov HAS the talent but he's "immature". Saros is the type of person we admire. Shuts up. Does his job. Works hard. Overcomes his lack of size. Plus, he's "elite". New definition of Elite for the 2023-2024 Season = 30th in Save % and 30th in Goals Against Average. Career playoff series won = Blutarsky-esque 0.0.

I like Saros. I think he's a Top 10-to-15 goalie over the last 4 years. But he's peaked and we're about to marry him for another 7 years and move Askarov, who can't wait 7 years.

Is Askarov great? Not yet. What's his ceiling? High. Higher than Saros. What's his floor? Low. Could implode due to his "immaturity".

But the bottom line is, Trotz loves players like Saros and doesn't trust players like Askarov. It just so happens that everyone this organization doesn't trust or feels like doesn't buy in, is talented.

Maybe the reason they all don't buy in is because what they're selling doesn't work.

OK, that was an emotional rant. My logical side disagrees with my emotional side. I love Barry Trotz. Barry is actually a friend. We're not best buds but we've worked together on a few projects and I talk to him now and then. There is no better human being. I want him to be right, and my emotions to be wrong. I'm just getting old and I'm running out of "next year's". I'm Day One, been to almost every game for 25 years, and watched our uncanny inability to recognize, draft, develop, or trade for, dynamic Top 6 forwards. #9 is one of the few exceptions but that credit goes to Martin Erat. Had he not demanded a trade deadline trade, Poile never would have moved him and we would be marveling at Forsberg' Washington career.
I wish I could give this a thousand likes. I too am Day One and am with you - can totally understand the emotional side of this.
 

nullednumbed

Registered User
Jun 27, 2022
144
171
Saros wasn't even one of the top 15 goalies in the league this past season however. Since he is signed already for next season, he could just wait and hope to get back to top 5 next season with a rebound year, and then get offered that bigger contract next summer.

Meanwhile, Trotz is under no obligation or pressure to lock up a mediocre goalie at top 5 numbers this summer. 6x$6.5M is a reasonable compromise if Saros wants the security. Or call it 6x$6.67M = $40M total. It would still be the 5th-highest goaltender AAV in the entire league (by next season's numbers - a couple other goalies will eventually surpass that by the time it kicks in). It guarantees Saros $45M more in his career.

Or, Saros could indeed gamble on himself and hope to stay healthy and return to the elite and get a bigger payday in the summer of 2025. He could get over $60M total if all goes perfectly for him. If I'm Trotz, I'm fine either way. If he wants the security by extending early, he can extend on our terms. If he wants to gamble on making an extra $15-20M down the road, I would be very comfortable letting him take that gamble.
Fantasy land. Saros is not signing for 6.5 mil AAV (or less). If he does I will happily take my lumps. Feel pretty good about it though.
 

Porter Stoutheart

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Jun 14, 2017
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Fantasy land. Saros is not signing for 6.5 mil AAV (or less). If he does I will happily take my lumps. Feel pretty good about it though.
You should think about it the other way around: Trotz isn’t signing Saros for much more than $6.5M.

Or he shouldn’t anyway. Saros is already under contract for next season. Trotz doesn’t have to extend him at just whatever big salary Saros would like to get. Not extending him is very much an option here.
 

Armourboy

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Jan 20, 2014
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You should think about it the other way around: Trotz isn’t signing Saros for much more than $6.5M.

Or he shouldn’t anyway. Saros is already under contract for next season. Trotz doesn’t have to extend him at just whatever big salary Saros would like to get. Not extending him is very much an option here.
I think he will probably make an offer but I think it will probably be something Saros won't sign, at least not early anyways. I think it will be less money than he wants and way shorter term. I also don't think he will offer a NTC/NMC.

We gotta keep in mind that Poile is still around for him to talk too, and I have a feeling he is going to remind him heavily that the NHL is strongly looking at expansion so he will advise him not to get tied down to anyone long term right now.
 

Flgatorguy87

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Jul 7, 2011
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For the sake of avoiding a big stink and starting something on the boards that could spread, I'll say if anybody is interested in some gossip I heard from inside the building, shoot me a DM and I don't mind sharing. I hate to put it out because it should be taken with a heavy grain of salt and is not some hard facts or should be construed as such...but it's interesting if nothing else.
 

hockey diva

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Great summary ILILI. Exactly how I feel. I really wish Trotz would revamp the scouting corps as well.

And there is a concern lurking in the background. They have increased ticket prices to the point many regular fans can’t afford to go. Corporate sales are helping right now but how long will those companies continue to buy if they don’t produce a winner. They made a mistake partnering with SmileDirect who is now bankrupt. I have wonder if Sean Henry has run his course as CEO.
 

ILikeItILoveIt

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Apr 2, 2010
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To not dwell on the negative, here's a proposed plan for the Goalie Situation:
No extension for Saros in the offseason. Let him play under the existing contract next year.
Re-sign Lanky for at least one more year, maybe two.
We begin next year with the same goalie tandem.
We change the workload plan. Saros starts 52-55 games, instead of 64 games.
Askarov returns as the Ads as their starter.
We change his workload as well. He starts 52 games, instead of the 44 he started this past regular season.

Decision Point #1:
 

ILikeItILoveIt

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.... continuation (sent too early)
If Saros plays lights out and Askarov continues to struggle, sign Saros long term and move Askarov.
If Saros only play ok (i.e. like 23-24) and Askarov plays well, move him at the TDL
If you move him, extend Lanky for at least 2 more years.
Start the following year with a 50-50 due of Lanky and Askarov.
If they both suck, sell the team (did I say that or just think it?)

In other words, next year is the "playoff".
 

Armourboy

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His Sv% might still leave a little to be desired but Askarov had 5th best GAA in the AHL and was 2nd in wins (although like 7th in GP). "Struggling?" :huh: What, cause he had a couple of rough playoff games?
Not to mention dude is young for a goalie and he didn't really play all that much before getting to the Ads. Frankly he is doing better than I thought he would.
 

glenngineer

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Jan 27, 2010
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.... continuation (sent too early)
If Saros plays lights out and Askarov continues to struggle, sign Saros long term and move Askarov.
If Saros only play ok (i.e. like 23-24) and Askarov plays well, move him at the TDL
If you move him, extend Lanky for at least 2 more years.
Start the following year with a 50-50 due of Lanky and Askarov.
If they both suck, sell the team (did I say that or just think it?)

In other words, next year is the "playoff".
I think you have to move Saros in the offseason for various reasons. It’s a distraction. Time to make a decision, good, bad or indifferent. Pull the band aid off. You don’t want to wait and see because if Saros sucks, his value is nothing. If he plays well and he’s re-signed, it’s a bad move long term for the team. What was the point of drafting Askarov if he’s going to waste away in Milwaukee.
 

herzausstein

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Aug 31, 2014
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Speaking of Askarov, looks like he got the call to start tonight. Solid outing through 2 periods. L'Heureux and Parssinen continue to produce points

Main boards says Friedman thinks the Canes will buyout Kotkaniemi. If they do, I sincerely hope we go after him in free agency. I think he still has potential and upside. Just his current contract is buns
 
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ShagDaddy

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Main boards says Friedman thinks the Canes will buyout Kotkaniemi. If they do, I sincerely hope we go after him in free agency. I think he still has potential and upside. Just his current contract is buns
But but but, he’ll take Tomasino’s spot away…..

Just kidding. If they can get him after he’s bought out, would definitely be worth a shot.
 

Kat Predator

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You really do enjoy just arguing against caricatures of what people believe don’t you?

Besides Kotkaniemi is probably taking Glass or Parsinnens spot if we did get him.
In terms of production numbers, Kotkaniemi is a clone of Glass. He's a bit younger and has fewer injuries. Still the two of them are high 1st round picks that haven't found the formula for success on a couple of teams yet. May the grass ever be greener in the next yard.
 

glenngineer

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Speaking of Askarov, looks like he got the call to start tonight. Solid outing through 2 periods. L'Heureux and Parssinen continue to produce points

Main boards says Friedman thinks the Canes will buyout Kotkaniemi. If they do, I sincerely hope we go after him in free agency. I think he still has potential and upside. Just his current contract is buns
After 25 years of watching this team, I'm kind of tired at going after guys with potential. I'd actually prefer going after guys who have produced. This isn't an indictment of you and your post, it's just something I've thought about myself for many years, hoping our prospects pan out the way I think they can and in reality, they rarely, if ever, reach where I thought they'd end up being. Hence, why I'm not a scout or development coach...haha.
 

weeze

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May 2, 2011
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I bought into the idea that it was necessary as a culture move and it was necessary to reestablish the identity of this team and open up a top six spot for some players even if it hurt us on ice in the short term. Given how the young guys on Dallas have played it certainly contradicts the idea we needed to do it to instill a winning culture, and then we decided to fill that second line winger slot with Jankowski for the latter half of the season. I wonder how Trotz views that decision with hindsight.
I don't think he cares one bit. Made his decision and moved on. I think Coaches and GM think they never make mistakes. Its the players fault for everything. Country Club culture, not adhering to the system, attitude issues... Org speak to place blame on anything but them for failure.
 

triggrman

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Listening to the Gold Standard podcast, I have to say even though I like Gallahger for the most part, Bradon Gall and Emma are just more like average fans knowledge wise. This last episode, though, Emma says the Preds won't be contenders until likely 2028. Seriously. How does anyone know what a team will look like in 4 years.
 

herzausstein

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After 25 years of watching this team, I'm kind of tired at going after guys with potential. I'd actually prefer going after guys who have produced. This isn't an indictment of you and your post, it's just something I've thought about myself for many years, hoping our prospects pan out the way I think they can and in reality, they rarely, if ever, reach where I thought they'd end up being. Hence, why I'm not a scout or development coach...haha.
I'd love to get a proven center that can take over 2C for now and move up to 1C when ROR retires but I don't think there are any for trade unless you want a PLD or Norris type that has motivational/injury issues.

Can still go after a proven winger/RHD since there are some available via trade or free agency.
 

herzausstein

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Listening to the Gold Standard podcast, I have to say even though I like Gallahger for the most part, Bradon Gall and Emma are just more like average fans knowledge wise. This last episode, though, Emma says the Preds won't be contenders until likely 2028. Seriously. How does anyone know what a team will look like in 4 years.
Probably just going off thoughts but you can't really predict that. Who knows what Trotz is gonna do but if you base it off what we have on hand then 4 years seems reasonable. Ideally ROR is a 2C and Fabbro isnt a 1RHD/scratch. But alot can change between seasons if Trotz wheels and deals.
 

triggrman

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Probably just going off thoughts but you can't really predict that. Who knows what Trotz is gonna do but if you base it off what we have on hand then 4 years seems reasonable. Ideally ROR is a 2C and Fabbro isnt a 1RHD/scratch. But alot can change between seasons if Trotz wheels and deals.
On the same token Emma said we weren't a playoff team last year.


I realistically think we could be contender in 2 seasons. Only worry is how does Josi age and who's in net.
 

weeze

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On the same token Emma said we weren't a playoff team last year.


I realistically think we could be contender in 2 seasons. Only worry is how does Josi age and who's in net.
You can have a Vezina Goalie (Boston) and still get knocked out, or play 3 different goalies and make it to game 7 of the 2nd round (Van) before losing. You still have to have players that put the puck in the net and the Preds were short a couple of those. Saros stats were not that different than those that are still playing. Preds did not give him the goals support he should have had.

Goalie Stats:
Saros 2.02/.900
Oettinger 2.09/.918
Pickard 2.21/.915
Skinner 2.87/.881
Bobrovsky 2.37/.902
Shesterkin 2.40/.923
 
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