Confirmed Trade: [MTL/CBJ] Patrik Laine, '26 2nd for Jordan Harris

[Ford Prefect]

I'm curious about what happens if he has a few very good campaigns. Assume he has back-to-back 40 goal seasons with no injuries. Where does Montreal go from there? Demidov will be in the fold and you now have Slafkovsky, Caufield, Demidov and Laine as your top 4 wingers. Will they sign him long term to a contract that will exceed Suzuki's (it's going to inevitably happen)? How does the affect their long-term salary structure (when Demidov, Hutson, Reinbacher, etc. will need new deals)? Where does that leave Newhook, Roy, Mesar, and Hage?

I know not everyone will hit their ceilings and these are great problems to have. Just wondering how much it would shift the direction of the organization.

 

[CHaracter79]

he is a PPG player since 2021 if you exclude last season where he was in player assistance program.

its all about being healthy. if he can stay healthy... its a great deal

 

[Mugzy97]

I'm curious about what happens if he has a few very good campaigns. Assume he has back-to-back 40 goal seasons with no injuries. Where does Montreal go from there?

They trade him at the next deadline and say thanks for coming out

 

[waitin425]

Laine....currently is overpaid....and as Stuart Smalley would say....that's ok!

Habs are the perfect team to spend money for a couple of years to run this experiment. I'm looking for a minimum 30+30 point total to make the experiement worth it, based on our current team needs and process.

In the 30+30 world each season, I would then look to sign him to a contract that recognizes that. 2nd line money in the 5.5-7 mil range depending on term.

Ideally he does something like 40+40 back to back and plays himself into a contract similar to Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf. If he goes bananas and does something like 50+50, he could be a big ticket price in two years and we will have to make some tough choices. Conversely, if he can't reach 30+30 for whatever reason, then I question whether his career is on a downturn.

A few posters asked...what will it take to make him worth his cap hit. It is not as black and white as that. There is a range here.

 

[Ford Prefect]

Laine....currently is overpaid....and as Stuart Smalley would say....that's ok!

Habs are the perfect team to spend money for a couple of years to run this experiment. I'm looking for a minimum 30+30 point total to make the experiement worth it, based on our current team needs and process.

In the 30+30 world each season, I would then look to sign him to a contract that recognizes that. 2nd line money in the 5.5-7 mil range depending on term.

Ideally he does something like 40+40 back to back and plays himself into a contract similar to Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf. If he goes bananas and does something like 50+50, he could be a big ticket price in two years and we will have to make some tough choices. Conversely, if he can't reach 30+30 for whatever reason, then I question whether his career is on a downturn.

A few posters asked...what will it take to make him worth his cap hit. It is not as black and white as that. There is a range here.

You think a 28 y.o. UFA coming off back-to-back 40-goal, point a game seasons is going to sign a contract in the same range as those who were relatively unproven and were buying out RFA years? His contract would start with a 9 minimum. In a competitive market he's signing over 10 (assuming those goal/point totals), even on full term.

 

[T REX]

Pace is not a fake number, it's an indication of how many goals you can expect Laine to score in a given amount of games. At minimum, Laine will score at a rate of .365 goals per game regardless of the games he plays - and this is conservative because his career pace is .425 goals per game.

So, yes, he technically didn't score 30 goals - but if he plays 82 games you can expect him to hover around that number based on his goal scoring rate in 7 of his 8 seasons.


It's not my money. If the owner doesn't care, why should we? Salary gets wasted every year on a ton of players. The habs have the space to take this gamble.

If you have an "if"...it is a theoretical number. There's a qualifier. You either did something or you didn't.

Pace is an imaginary number.

 

[nyhabsfan]

Laine has an $8m contract... that has to be factored in

I'm guessing Laine would have been dumped for free with no retention kind of like the PLD trade

For 2 years, worst case flip him at the trade deadline next year with retention for the reminder of the year.

If you heard the pressers yesterday, I think this is going to be one of the BEST deals in the last 5-6 years. Toss out last year and even when he wasn't too happy in Columbus he was a point a game player.

 

[waitin425]

You think a 28 y.o. UFA coming off back-to-back 40-goal, point a game seasons is going to sign a contract in the same range as those who were relatively unproven and were buying out RFA years? His contract would start with a 9 minimum. In a competitive market he's signing over 10 (assuming those goal/point totals), even on full term.

In two years....the cap hit percentage of 9 mil may be the same as the percentage of Suzuki when we signed him. My point here is that....8.7 to take this shot is worth it. Hell if he plays himself into a 10+ mil contract that is a pretty damn good problem to have.

Maybe my numbers are off....I'm just saying....this is a very high reward low risk deal for us. The only risk is we are out of the big game UFA hunt for two years. If he flames out...we are still entering our competetive window and we can pivot to some other UFA in 2 years.

 

[614 CBJ]

what teams are in the worst shape cap wise

Be interesting to see if Columbus adds with the cap they created before the season starts

 

[nyhabsfan]

Laine in Montreal is such a bad fit given his skillset and off ice situation.

He's going to get Drouin'd/Galchenyuk'd so hard there.

Actually quite the opposite, he talked about it and so did Hughes when he talked to him. His head space is a lot better and he wants the spotlight. He doesn't have to be the focal point.

Caufield ---Suzuki---Slafkovsky
Liane--- Dach---Newhook
(Next year Demidov and 2 1st round pics, Hague knocking on the door soon)

The Habs are starting to look like a dangerous team!

 

[CHaracter79]

Laine....currently is overpaid....and as Stuart Smalley would say....that's ok!

Habs are the perfect team to spend money for a couple of years to run this experiment. I'm looking for a minimum 30+30 point total to make the experiement worth it, based on our current team needs and process.

In the 30+30 world each season, I would then look to sign him to a contract that recognizes that. 2nd line money in the 5.5-7 mil range depending on term.

Ideally he does something like 40+40 back to back and plays himself into a contract similar to Suzuki, Caufield and Slaf. If he goes bananas and does something like 50+50, he could be a big ticket price in two years and we will have to make some tough choices. Conversely, if he can't reach 30+30 for whatever reason, then I question whether his career is on a downturn.

A few posters asked...what will it take to make him worth his cap hit. It is not as black and white as that. There is a range here.

if he is healthy and maintains his pace from his last 2 seasons in CBJ (excludign last year with his non injury time away ) he is almost at a 37 g 40 assist pace. he stays healty i think 30 goals is a given

 

[Andy]

If you have an "if"...it is a theoretical number. There's a qualifier. You either did something or you didn't.

Pace is an imaginary number.

No one is saying it is not an imaginary number. It's an indication of rate of expected goals in a time frame.

No one in the nhl is guaranteed to play 82 games in a given year. But GMs, players, and fans can expect certain rates of production based on previous performance. It allows teams to plan and build rosters.

You know this, but you are conveniently ignoring it because to concede to the concept of expected rate means you can't crap on this. You're obviously not participating in this discussion in good faith.

Regardless of the actual games Laine ends up playing, his goal scoring rate is his goal scoring rate. If he plays 20 games I have a sense of how many goals he will score, same with 40, 60, or 82. That doesn't change.

In 7 of 8 seasons, his rate has been over .365.

 

[dgibb10]

In two years....the cap hit percentage of 9 mil may be the same as the percentage of Suzuki when we signed him. My point here is that....8.7 to take this shot is worth it. Hell if he plays himself into a 10+ mil contract that is a pretty damn good problem to have.

Maybe my numbers are off....I'm just saying....this is a very high reward low risk deal for us. The only risk is we are out of the big game UFA hunt for two years. If he flames out...we are still entering our competetive window and we can pivot to some other UFA in 2 years.

Risk: 17 million dollars of salary eaten
Reward: 2nd now, potential rental winger price next deadline, outside chance he helps you reach the playoffs in 25-26.

You know if Laine bounces back he's a UFA right? He can still just leave

 

[nyhabsfan]

They trade him at the next deadline and say thanks for coming out

They extend him and Hughes has proven that he's a genius at that given his payer agent experience.

 

[CHaracter79]

Risk: 17 million dollars of salary eaten
Reward: 2nd now, potential rental winger price next deadline, outside chance he helps you reach the playoffs in 25-26.

You know if Laine bounces back he's a UFA right? He can still just leave

you know he could also sign with a team that'll have approx 20-23m in cap space that helped him get his career back on track

 

[pth2]

Risk: 17 million dollars of salary eaten
Reward: 2nd now, potential rental winger price next deadline, outside chance he helps you reach the playoffs in 25-26.

You know if Laine bounces back he's a UFA right? He can still just leave

I think once a guy has bounced around and had to deal with issues, if he finds a fit somewhere, he's more likely to extend rather than try and get the very most he can as a UFA.
See Drouin, Jonathan.

 

[nyhabsfan]

Oh so what's important is that Laine is committed to the team culture, something he's never been throughout his NHL career. Got it.

It's called maturity and being in the right environment.

 

[nyhabsfan]

View attachment 902183

He is the best GM Montreal has had since our last cup in '93.
He's not only building a contending team but is also building a winning culture again.
Habs fans (I've been one for 50 years) just need a little more patience.

 

[dgibb10]

Cope harder man. This is a great deal for the Habs. Any deal carries a risk reward factor. This one has very little risk and a whole lot of reward

There is a very significant risk.

If laine doesn't contribute to winning and then leaves as a UFA, you have burned 17 million dollars for a 2nd round pick. That is a very significant risk.

The upside is... Laine plays up to his contract? Even in your most optimistic scenarios you yourself are still suggesting he's worth about the same amount as his salary.

Even resigning Laine you're still paying about the same as you would without trading for him.

The upside, is that either MTLs window comes through next year pretty significantly ahead of schedule, or Laine decides to take a large discount out as a UFA out of the kindness of his heart.

I respect teams that are willing to eat massive amounts of money while not contending, but it's not some genius move.

 

[Rob Sense]

I'm curious about what happens if he has a few very good campaigns. Assume he has back-to-back 40 goal seasons with no injuries. Where does Montreal go from there? Demidov will be in the fold and you now have Slafkovsky, Caufield, Demidov and Laine as your top 4 wingers. Will they sign him long term to a contract that will exceed Suzuki's (it's going to inevitably happen)? How does the affect their long-term salary structure (when Demidov, Hutson, Reinbacher, etc. will need new deals)? Where does that leave Newhook, Roy, Mesar, and Hage?

I know not everyone will hit their ceilings and these are great problems to have. Just wondering how much it would shift the direction of the organization.

Eventually someone will be paid more than Suzuki think Demidov when he finishes his ELC

 

[Gustave]

There is a very significant risk.

If laine doesn't contribute to winning and then leaves as a UFA, you have burned 17 million dollars for a 2nd round pick. That is a very significant risk.

The upside is... Laine plays up to his contract? Even in your most optimistic scenarios you yourself are still suggesting he's worth about the same amount as his salary.

Even resigning Laine you're still paying about the same as you would without trading for him.

The upside, is that either MTLs window comes through next year pretty significantly ahead of schedule, or Laine decides to take a large discount out as a UFA out of the kindness of his heart.

I respect teams that are willing to eat massive amounts of money while not contending, but it's not some genius move.

Who cares about money?
If Molson said « ok », then NO ONE CARES about actual money being burned in a billionaires pocket.

If you mean « cap space », we have 9 million still on it waiting to be used so again, who cares???

 

[tucker3434]

Fun add for MTL. He’ll score a lot goals. I’m just not sure he’ll help them win. If that makes sense.

 

[dgibb10]

Who cares about money?
If Molson said « ok », then NO ONE CARES about actual money being burned in a billionaires pocket.

If you mean « cap space », we have 9 million still on it waiting to be used so again, who cares???

Ahh I see, so money only matters if you're a good team?

If you ignore one of the biggest reasons laine was traded (his massive contract), then sure everything about this deal is fantastic.

Also this deal likely puts MTL into LTIR use, meaning most of Slafkovsky, Hutson, or Guhle's ELC bonuses will carry over to 24-25. So acquiring him now likely adds about 10 mill to your cap next year, when you may be trying to compete

 

[Rob Sense]

Pace is a fake number. You either get to 30 goals or you do not get to 30 goals. Any player can get injured or go cold.

The 2nd I see the word "pace" I immediately know it being used to prop somebody up that couldn't actually get to the number they are talking about. He paced for this amazing fake number(but never really reached it).

Pace...smdh

Forget about pace if it annoys you that much. I am not sure CBJ were crushingly disappointed when Laine scored 108 points in 111 games in 2021-22/2022-23 including 48 goals. Injuries are part of hockey and in those years he had covid, then an ankle and biceps injury. No knees, no back, no concussion recurrence. He was producing at a PPG.

 

[Captain97]

Ahh I see, so money only matters if you're a good team?

If you ignore one of the biggest reasons laine was traded (his massive contract), then sure everything about this deal is fantastic.

Also this deal likely puts MTL into LTIR use, meaning most of Slafkovsky, Hutson, or Guhle's ELC bonuses will carry over to 24-25. So acquiring him now likely adds about 10 mill to your cap next year, when you may be trying to compete

Um the Habs are projected have something like 19,000,000 in capsapce in 2025/26 including Price's LTIR with no major resigning (this accounts for Laine and the Slaf and Guhle raises). When you have a ton of cap space and a very rich owner money it doesn't matter even then.