Post-Game Talk: Montreal/Reimer defeat the Leafs....

[Mess]

People expected Reimer to give up 3 weak goals against last night and post another sub .900 save%?

Reimer has a 3.32 GAA on the season and Leafs have won only 4 of the last 18 games in which Reimer has started.

Weak goals, breakaway goals, odd man scoring chances etc. one could label them anyone they want, but +3 gaa is still the net end result for a goalie that gives up on average > 3 and a team that surrenders > 3 over the course of game on average over 72 games.

The 3 goals against was expected, and it doesn't really matter which one of the shots goes in among the total shots against to get there. Would the probability results be any different if he stopped the weak shots that went in and let in the tough stops that he saved instead?. The stats at end of game balances itself out to the law of goals against averages that existed prior to the game.

 

[Gallagbi]

Reimer has a 3.32 GAA on the season and Leafs have won only 4 of the last 18 games in which Reimer has started.

Weak goals, breakaway goals, odd man scoring chances etc. one could label them anyone they want, but +3 gaa is still the net end result for a goalie that gives up on average > 3 and a team that surrenders > 3 over the course of game on average over 72 games.

The 3 goals against was expected, and it doesn't really matter which one of the shots goes in among the total shots against to get there. Would the probability results be any different if he stopped the weak shots that went in and let in the tough stops that he saved instead?. The stats at end of game balances itself out to the law of goals against averages that existed prior to the game.

How many tough saves do you think he made last night? 2-3, when most goalies are facing more?

The big problem is you're assuming last night went as expected. The Leafs outplayed the habs, which was unexpected. The Leafs outchanced the Habs, also unexpected. Reimer was worse than his "average" play, so that would also be unexpected then correct?

If anything, last night was an anomaly. The Leafs were better defensively and generated more offensive chances, but lost on bad goaltending. You've claimed the Leafs season has been the exact opposite a number of times this year.

 

[rrc1967]

How many tough saves do you think he made last night? 2-3, when most goalies are facing more?

The big problem is you're assuming last night went as expected. The Leafs outplayed the habs, which was unexpected. The Leafs outchanced the Habs, also unexpected. Reimer was worse than his "average" play, so that would also be unexpected then correct?

If anything, last night was an anomaly. The Leafs were better defensively and generated more offensive chances, but lost on bad goaltending. You've claimed the Leafs season has been the exact opposite a number of times this year.

it balances out the leafs have won games this season on the backs of their goaltenders that they clearly had no business of winning. I suspect far more than games that the goaltenders have lost for them.

 

[Gallagbi]

it balances out the leafs have won games this season on the backs of their goaltenders that they clearly had no business of winning. I suspect far more than games that the goaltenders have lost for them.

I'd say goaltending has been good for the Leafs, without a doubt. Not sure how that makes last night's goaltending performance "expected" though.

 

[Mess]

How many tough saves do you think he made last night? 2-3, when most goalies are facing more?

The big problem is you're assuming last night went as expected. The Leafs outplayed the habs, which was unexpected. The Leafs outchanced the Habs, also unexpected. Reimer was worse than his "average" play, so that would also be unexpected then correct?

If anything, last night was an anomaly. The Leafs were better defensively and generated more offensive chances, but lost on bad goaltending. You've claimed the Leafs season has been the exact opposite a number of times this year.

All I'm saying is that when the Leafs put in a goalie with a 3.32 GAA in net in front of a team (223 GA /72 games) = 3.10 GAA /game that is 30th in shots against.
&
Reimer is #47 of 48 NHL goalies (http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/goaltending/sort/avgGoalsAgainst/count/41) on GAA average. You don't get there by letting in only the tough goals against but weak ones as well.
=
Then don't colour me surprised if the team surrenders +3 goals against as that is what the statistics suggested would happen.

I was hoping like everyone else the Leafs could win but when your team is in the bottom 5 goals against overall I'm not expecting a mistake free defensive masterpiece game to get there. Leafs reputation is one of outscoring their mistakes to win not playing strong defensively nor surrendering limited goals against.

This is the expected norm, its when something unexpected happens that it becomes the surprising anomaly.

 

[Gallagbi]

All I'm saying is that when the Leafs put in a goalie with a 3.32 GAA in net in front of a team (223 GA /72 games) = 3.10 GAA /game that is 30th in shots against.
&
Reimer is #47 of 48 NHL goalies (http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/goaltending/sort/avgGoalsAgainst/count/41) on GAA average. You don't get there by letting in only the tough goals against but weak ones as well.
=
Then don't colour me surprised if the team surrenders +3 goals against as that is what the statistics suggested would happen.

I was hoping like everyone else the Leafs could win but when your team is in the bottom 5 goals against overall I'm not expecting a mistake free defensive masterpiece game to get there. Leafs reputation is one of outscoring their mistakes to win not playing strong defensively nor surrendering limited goals against.

You seem to be missing my point here, so I'll make it very easy.

Do you think the Leafs played better or worse than they usually do last night?

 

[leafs in five]

I said it weeks ago, we need to retool with better 2 way players that understand how to play hockey. Remember how Team Canada played? We both touched on this. Artistic points only counts in ice dancing. Wonder when this fan base will ever learn.

it's also p. telling that you saw no artistry in the way Canada dominated at the Olympics, when they barely gave up possession of the puck. to call that "winning hockey" as opposed to the opposite of winning hockey, "artistic hockey." i know you are the only person on this board who watches games but i wonder what you are actually seeing when you do this.

 

[Espher]

You seem to be missing my point here, so I'll make it very easy.

Do you think the Leafs played better or worse than they usually do last night?

imo, better, but still had some major gaffes that resulted in GA, and they couldn't get the extra goal they've used to cover those gaffes in several other post-break games.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

All I'm saying is that when the Leafs put in a goalie with a 3.32 GAA in net in front of a team (223 GA /72 games) = 3.10 GAA /game that is 30th in shots against.
&
Reimer is #47 of 48 NHL goalies (http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/goaltending/sort/avgGoalsAgainst/count/41) on GAA average. You don't get there by letting in only the tough goals against but weak ones as well.

Leafs give up alot of shots, but do they give up alot of chances ?
Anyone knows a source that compares/tracks GAA with number of chances ?

Reimer gave up 4 goals last night and the Habs didn't get alot of chances.

 

[grog]

If you read this thread you would almost believe that better goalies, on much better teams, never lose a game or give up a bad goal. Of course that isn't true, but most of the commentators here are apparently idiots. Reiner hasn't been good, but it isn't Reimer that is responsible for allowing a on pace for record number of shot attempts, only a blind leaf zealot will see that as anything but an absolute failure of defence and coaching. This is a bad team, which up to now has been saved by goal tending, this team save for a few key players will never win, you either are blinded by bias or dog ****ing stupid if you think otherwise, and equally stupid if you think Reimer has ruined the season, they had zero chance to win anything more than a round. While I understand that this is toronto and mediocrity is seen as a goal, a victory, it just Professional Engineers of Ontario, and never was. As a life long fan I'm tired of pretending otherwise, on the plus side, the future could be bright, but the future isn't and wasn't now, Reimer or not.

 

[Espher]

Early in the year we could use the rationale that they were giving up tons of worthless perimeter shots and I would have agreed with that.

Of late (okay, in 2014) I've been having more and more Ron Wilson flashbacks with blue line gaffes and defensive zone coverage blunders leading to goals (some of which, of course, aren't great shots, but shouldn't have happened in the first place). They just aren't outscoring them anymore.

 

[rrc1967]

I'd say goaltending has been good for the Leafs, without a doubt. Not sure how that makes last night's goaltending performance "expected" though.

because in the law of averages it's bound to happen.

it doesn't surprise me to see a #1 goaltender that was shuffled off to the side have a difficult time to adjusting to the extremely small workload.

it also doesn't surprise me to see the goaltending crumble under the stress of needing to be perfect.

 

[Gallagbi]

because in the law of averages it's bound to happen.

it doesn't surprise me to see a #1 goaltender that was shuffled off to the side have a difficult time to adjusting to the extremely small workload.

it also doesn't surprise me to see the goaltending crumble under the stress of needing to be perfect.

Not surprising is different than expected.

 

[FreeBird]

How could any one expect James Reimer to out duel Carey Price in a must win game or over a seven game series. It isn't going to happen.

 

[I Am The Stig]

How could any one expect James Reimer to out duel Carey Price in a must win game or over a seven game series. It isn't going to happen.

Well the chance was certainly there as Carey Price did not play well either.

 

[Clark4Ever]

We didn't need Reimer to outplay Price last night to win, we just needed him to be average. Reimer has been absolutely sub par the last few games, and it could end up being the turning point of the season. It looks good on him and his agent after that BS regarding Carlyle's accurate comments.

Bernier can't come back soon enough.

 

[FreeBird]

Well the chance was certainly there as Carey Price did not play well either.

The best man wins no matter whether it was ugly or not. When your facing the Gold Medal winner your intimidated, and when you know your coach has no faith in you it messes up your mind.

 

[Espher]

Bernier can't come back soon enough.

Unless he continues to be subpar, too, in which case we're screwed.

 

[Gallagbi]

The best man wins no matter whether it was ugly or not. When your facing the Gold Medal winner your intimidated, and when you know your coach has no faith in you it messes up your mind.

Habs for the Cup then? He's the most current gold medal winning goalie

 

[Pi]

The best man wins no matter whether it was ugly or not. When your facing the Gold Medal winner your intimidated, and when you know your coach has no faith in you it messes up your mind.

Carey Price sucks against the Leafs. Winning a gold medal with six #1D's and a handful of two way players isn't tough.

We hit posts, we had great chances. The Leafs were more intimidated by Reimer than Price.

Reimer let the team down with the awful goal from a terrible angle.

 

[Mess]

You seem to be missing my point here, so I'll make it very easy.

Do you think the Leafs played better or worse than they usually do last night?

I thought they played better than they usually do but again that is the exception (=anomaly) while usually (=norm).

So prior to the game beginning I didn't expect anomalies to become the norm in this game. Neither goalie nor team so I wasn't surprised by the final outcome.

We're you expecting both the team and the goalie to play better than they usually do? Hoping for 2 X anomalies to play out to Leafs benefit.

Norms occur >>>> Anomalies .. The house odds are always against the anomalies.

 

[FreeBird]

Carey Price sucks against the Leafs. Winning a gold medal with six #1D's and a handful of two way players isn't tough.

We hit posts, we had great chances. The Leafs were more intimidated by Reimer than Price.

Reimer let the team down with the awful goal from a terrible angle.

The team didn't play very well in the three previous games, the top line didn't score in the three games, when your best players aren't your best it's hard to win when your only a middle of the road team. It's been that way the whole season with out the goaltenders the Leafs would be in the top five in the draft.

 

[Gallagbi]

I thought they played better than they usually do but again that is the exception (=anomaly) while usually (=norm).

So prior to the game beginning I didn't expect anomalies to become the norm in this game. Neither goalie nor team so I wasn't surprised by the final outcome.

We're you expecting both the team and the goalie to play better than they usually do? Hoping for 2 X anomalies to play out to Leafs benefit.

Norms occur >>>> Anomalies ..

I was expecting a better defensive performance due to the situation and usual goaltending.

Reimer save% last night was well below his average btw and his GAa is closer to 3 than 4 btw.

Personally I think it's silly to say something statistically unlikely to happen was statistically expected, but I'm crazy like that.

 

[Espher]

Reimer save% last night was well below his average btw and his GAa is closer to 3 than 4 btw.

I mean I know I'm nitpicking but a GAA 'closer to 3 than 4' that is still above 3 doesn't exactly making 4 goals against implausible or unlikely.

 

[Gallagbi]

I mean I know I'm nitpicking but a GAA 'closer to 3 than 4' that is still above 3 doesn't exactly making 4 goals against implausible or unlikely.

means 3 is more likely than 4. Certainly not implausible.