Value of: Montreal Offer-Sheeting Marner or Matthews

[Toronto makebeleifs]

The Leafs can't afford to give the kids whatever they want....they're going to be hooped.

To quote dubas, "we can, and we will." Just because some teams have incompetent management that cannot ascertain the true value of players, that is not the case for all teams. If this were the jfj/ burke/ nonis years I might be concerned. It is not that time and I'm not worried. To feed the post, the reason offer sheets don't happen often any longer is because internal growth is more important in a cap world. To o/s either of those players would be in the 4 1'st range. Logistically and cap wise it won't make sense for the have as they have more holes to fill than a single marner or Matthews can provide, ie the holes that can be filled with decent drafting in the 1st round for 4 years.

 

[Romkey]

They play the hockey game.

They shoot the puck at the opponents net.

But the opponent tends to shoot the puck at their net more often than the Leafs get to shoot the puck!

Infact, they get the puck shot at their net so much that based on averages they should get scored on the 5th most in the NHL! In reality, they have the eighth lowest goals allowed, likely because they have the third best save percentage. (5/31 expected, 24/31 reality)

These stats suggest that the Leafs defense sucks, because they let the other team shoot the puck at them a whole lot, but that their goaltender is playing amazingly which is why they haven't let in that many goals.

Stats suggest that as Andersen regresses, the team will allow far more goals and they should get closer to their expected averages, because their defense is bad, and as a team they let way too many shots on goal

Currently, Freddy is at a .930 --- that means when he is facing 32 shots a game, he will make ~29.76 saves.

If Freddy drops down to a still solid .915 --- he would be making ~29.28 saves per game. This is important, because that is .48 more goals per game --- which in a 7 game series is an extra three goals, which can go a long way.

So yeah, their defense sucks. If you don't get it after that idk what to tell ya.

People get so worked up about the advanced shot stats. In those stats that you posted do they break down high % scoring chances vs low %? Because if you watch the Leafs actually play, you'll notice Freddy gets a lot of easy saves caused by the forwards back checking, leading to outside shots that aren't necessarily good chances because they are rushed.

Furthermore, you need to realize that the system the Leafs play isn't a shot suppression system, it's one that is based on quick transitions and breakouts which start behind their net. Again, if you watched them play (I don't know if you do or not), you'd see that although they give up 30+ shots, realistically only 10-15% of those are high danger, in the slot shots.

I love stats, but I hate when people cherrypick without doing their due diligence

 

[Mackiaveli]

Let me ask this.

Not discounting everything you said, I respect all opinions, but I have a few points.

Thank you for being a respectful guy

1. Nobody knows what Marner or Matty is thinking.

Fair. Everything at this point from any side is assumptions; but I would be shocked if two 20 year olds aren't looking to get paid big.

2. Have the Leafs stopped drafting and developing?

Of course not, but your prospect pool is not what it was a few years ago; most of the big prospects you guys have (except for Sandin and Lilly) are in the NHL.

3. Do we not have a single prospect in the minors?

See above.

4. We spend a lot of money on finding free wallets, is this going to just stop?

What are you trying to say?

I have a hard time hearing posters speak, only because they share what they feel, but assume the team has no process, or that management is stupid (not saying you are, but in general)

Fair. But talking from a purely logistical standpoint the Leafs obviously have a plan but that plan isn't clearly visible to anyone from the outside.

They are stacking themselves offensively to compete now, while remaining relevant for the foreseeable future. Sandin and Lilly are studs, but neither are NHL ready as of right now.

Your defensive core is very very weak, and with the departure of Hainsey and Gardiner the idea is it will only get worse.

Your offensive group is stacked, but you have to pay to keep them all together; even with an elite top 6, you need a viable bottom 6.

Kadri, Rielly and Andersen are on sweetheart deals that will come to an end within 4 years. When those deals go away, you will absolutely not have the cap room to re-up them all; maybe only one of them.

Unfortunately, you can't afford to not have elite goaltending with the way the team plays, and you absolutely cannot afford to lose a defenseman like Morgan, even if both your prospect pan out to be top 4 guys.

The Leafs are in a bind; and honestly I think the signing of JT is the big reason for that. I suspect Nylander and Kapanen will get moved together when the cap issues really kick it up a notch, depending on what Kappy gets as an RFA

 

[Yamazaki]

I think Julien is a good coach.

But you have to consider that Q is still available, and Bergevin and Q have a great friendship --- wouldn't be out of the question if we don't make the playoffs this year that we fire Julien and hire Q.

I don't think their team is bad at all --- they don't have a #1C, and they don't have a very solid defensive group on the left side. You sign Gardiner, you trade Suzuki for another LD and you fill all the holes in the team.

A lot of what if’s. Why would players trust your ownership and gm?

 

[member 300185]

Of all the GM's in the NHL, Bargainbin is the only GM I can see trying it. I would love it. Leafs would match then that would make everyone of Montreals RFA's a target. Leafs would love to have Kotkaniemi.

 

[Romkey]

Thank you for being a respectful guy



Fair. Everything at this point from any side is assumptions; but I would be shocked if two 20 year olds aren't looking to get paid big.



Of course not, but your prospect pool is not what it was a few years ago; most of the big prospects you guys have (except for Sandin and Lilly) are in the NHL.



See above.



What are you trying to say?



Fair. But talking from a purely logistical standpoint the Leafs obviously have a plan but that plan isn't clearly visible to anyone from the outside.

They are stacking themselves offensively to compete now, while remaining relevant for the foreseeable future. Sandin and Lilly are studs, but neither are NHL ready as of right now.

Your defensive core is very very weak, and with the departure of Hainsey and Gardiner the idea is it will only get worse.

Your offensive group is stacked, but you have to pay to keep them all together; even with an elite top 6, you need a viable bottom 6.

Kadri, Rielly and Andersen are on sweetheart deals that will come to an end within 4 years. When those deals go away, you will absolutely not have the cap room to re-up them all; maybe only one of them.

Unfortunately, you can't afford to not have elite goaltending with the way the team plays, and you absolutely cannot afford to lose a defenseman like Morgan, even if both your prospect pan out to be top 4 guys.

The Leafs are in a bind; and honestly I think the signing of JT is the big reason for that. I suspect Nylander and Kapanen will get moved together when the cap issues really kick it up a notch, depending on what Kappy gets as an RFA

I agree with your statement about Kadri and Rielly, one of them will go (99% chance it's Kadri). I think Freddy will get a 1.5-2.5M raise. Rielly likely will get about 7.5-8 long term, which can come out of Kadri's money. Remember, 5M is gone with Gards this year (Dermott is the internal replacement, not quite as skilled offensively but a much better defender). Then on top of that with the expansion coming, you can automatically tack on another 5% to the cap, roughly an additional 4.5M (covers the Andersen signing). Yes, it's going to be a tight cap, but to suggest the team has to move multiple core pieces, in my opinion, is ignorant. That being said, I do think Nylander is moved within 3 years.

 

[TFHockey]

As a neutral fan I'd say Montreal probably should offer sheet Matthews. He is better than anyone they'll draft in the next 4-5 years. He'd be the #1 C they're looking for going forward.

However OS don't really happen in the modern NHL so I don't think Toronto has anything to worry about. The Leafs would match damn near any offer anyways.

 

[golffuul]

Not worth it for Montreal to do so, nowadays, especially for a franchise trying to build up to being a playoff contender. I could see a team like Carolina do something like this, though.

 

[Mackiaveli]

you'll notice Freddy gets a lot of easy saves caused by the forwards back checking, leading to outside shots that aren't necessarily good chances because they are rushed.

I agree.

see that although they give up 30+ shots, realistically only 10-15% of those are high danger, in the slot shots.

According to NST, they have allowed 257 High Danger Scoring Chances, which is 7th highest in the League. With 751 shots against this season, it's actually closer to 30% of the shots being high danger.

Toronto has allowed 31 High Danger goals this season out of their 46 goals allowed; meaning almost 70% of the goals scored on them are in high danger areas.

All this suggests is that their defense is allowing a lot of high danger opportunities, which equates to most of the goals scored against. If you can't get into the high danger areas, you're probably not scoring on Freddy with the way he's been playing.

I love stats, but I hate when people cherrypick without doing their due diligence

I hope I have appeased your standards

 

[IWD]

They play the hockey game.

They shoot the puck at the opponents net.

But the opponent tends to shoot the puck at their net more often than the Leafs get to shoot the puck!

Infact, they get the puck shot at their net so much that based on averages they should get scored on the 5th most in the NHL! In reality, they have the eighth lowest goals allowed, likely because they have the third best save percentage. (5/31 expected, 24/31 reality)

These stats suggest that the Leafs defense sucks, because they let the other team shoot the puck at them a whole lot, but that their goaltender is playing amazingly which is why they haven't let in that many goals.

Stats suggest that as Andersen regresses, the team will allow far more goals and they should get closer to their expected averages, because their defense is bad, and as a team they let way too many shots on goal

Currently, Freddy is at a .930 --- that means when he is facing 32 shots a game, he will make ~29.76 saves.

If Freddy drops down to a still solid .915 --- he would be making ~29.28 saves per game. This is important, because that is .48 more goals per game --- which in a 7 game series is an extra three goals, which can go a long way.

So yeah, their defense sucks. If you don't get it after that idk what to tell ya.

Nah, it's flimsy. You're trying to tie in too many loose variables. The model doesn't really take into account the quality of shots, the overall structure of the defense (strong with LD, weak with RD), nor the offense-first system that the Leafs play. The only glaring problem with the Leaf defense is the top-pairing RHD. Actually, if Gardiner was a RHD, they'd be more or less set in the medium. Not that this has an easy remedy, but overall, a top four RHD that can play 22 minutes a night would effectively solidify this defense.

Also, what argument were you trying to make about Rielly needing to be re-upped in 3 years? What does that have to do with the claim that the Leafs only have this year?

 

[Mackiaveli]

Nah, it's flimsy. You're trying to tie in too many loose variables. The model doesn't really take into account the quality of shots, the overall structure of the defense (strong with LD, weak with RD), nor the offense-first system that the Leafs play. The only glaring problem with the Leaf defense is the top-pairing RHD. Actually, if Gardiner was a RHD, they'd be more or less set in the medium. Not that this has an easy remedy, but overall, a top four RHD that can play 22 minutes a night would effectively solidify this defense.

Also, what argument were you trying to make about Rielly needing to be re-upped in 3 years? What does that have to do with the claim that the Leafs only have this year?

See my most recent post about the stats thing; I stand by what I said about their defensive group.

When the Leafs lose Gardiner and Hainsey their defensive group is going to be worse. They won't have the money to find pieces to solidify their back-end and they will be hoping their offensive group is enough to carry them after this year.

When Rielly needs to be re-upped, they are f***ed. He will get a TON of money and they can't afford it; nor will they find the pieces (at his current cap hit) to make up for losing him. They better pray they draft some gems on the back end or trade Nylander because things will get ugly fast.

 

[Romkey]

I agree.



According to NST, they have allowed 257 High Danger Scoring Chances, which is 7th highest in the League. With 751 shots against this season, it's actually closer to 30% of the shots being high danger.

Toronto has allowed 31 High Danger goals this season out of their 46 goals allowed; meaning almost 70% of the goals scored on them are in high danger areas.

All this suggests is that their defense is allowing a lot of high danger opportunities, which equates to most of the goals scored against. If you can't get into the high danger areas, you're probably not scoring on Freddy with the way he's been playing.



I hope I have appeased your standards

I stand corrected, thanks for bringing that to my attention. I thought it was much lower than 257, so it would be interesting to see how they quantify high danger vs medium danger. I guess I'll go check that website out.

I suggest in your first post about stats that you include high% shots because to me that's much more indicative of defense than just stating shots for/against and Corsi.

That being said, I will shit a brick and cry into my Leafs pillow if Matthews or Marner signs with the Habs.

 

[Mackiaveli]

I agree with your statement about Kadri and Rielly, one of them will go (99% chance it's Kadri). I think Freddy will get a 1.5-2.5M raise. Rielly likely will get about 7.5-8 long term, which can come out of Kadri's money. Remember, 5M is gone with Gards this year (Dermott is the internal replacement, not quite as skilled offensively but a much better defender). Then on top of that with the expansion coming, you can automatically tack on another 5% to the cap, roughly an additional 4.5M (covers the Andersen signing). Yes, it's going to be a tight cap, but to suggest the team has to move multiple core pieces, in my opinion, is ignorant. That being said, I do think Nylander is moved within 3 years.

I just don't know how you replace Kadri.

And yes, I agree you can fit Rielly and Freddy but at what cost? Where are you going to pay your bottom 6 guys. Where are you going to pay Hyman or Brown? Who's going to replace Kadri and Marleau's elite 3rd line production at cheap enough cost?

 

[Romkey]

I just don't know how you replace Kadri.

And yes, I agree you can fit Rielly and Freddy but at what cost? Where are you going to pay your bottom 6 guys. Where are you going to pay Hyman or Brown? Who's going to replace Kadri and Marleau's elite 3rd line production at cheap enough cost?

Kadri's "elite" production is certainly not that this year. I think there are a lot of internal options you're overlooking. Brown is replaceable, he's a hard forechecker, but isn't anything special. He's a typical player you can grab on UFA for 2M. Hyman won't be moving, but won't make anything over 3M AAV. As for Marleau, Carl Grundstrom looks like he will be able to step into the left side. Another guy to watch is Jeremy Bracco, small winger who is dynamic.

Like I said before, yeah it's going to be hard to juggle, but there are internal options with more options becoming available every draft. Remember, most cup contenders live off of ELC's stepping up and filling in the gaps. Look at Guentzal on Pitty, Kempny on WASH (different situation but sort of similar). To compete long term, you need a good supply of ELC's coming.

 

[IWD]

See my most recent post about the stats thing; I stand by what I said about their defensive group.

When the Leafs lose Gardiner and Hainsey their defensive group is going to be worse. They won't have the money to find pieces to solidify their back-end and they will be hoping their offensive group is enough to carry them after this year.

When Rielly needs to be re-upped, they are ****ed. He will get a TON of money and they can't afford it; nor will they find the pieces (at his current cap hit) to make up for losing him. They better pray they draft some gems on the back end or trade Nylander because things will get ugly fast.

That's fine, I stand by pointing out that you're trying to tie together too many variables and your argument is too loose.

That said, losing Gardiner in the future will sting a bit, yep, but that's the future and doesn't really have any relevance to the current roster. Also, Rielly's not up for 3-4 years. Why is that relevant to the claim that they need to go for it now?

 

[Fogelhund]

This is how this would play out... Habs would offer sheet Matthews $15mil per six years.

Leafs get four first round picks.

Matthews injures his shoulder in game three, and is forced to retire.

Habs end up a lottery team for four years. Leafs pick up Lafrenière/Bayfield and so on....

 

[DanM]

Thank you for being a respectful guy



Fair. Everything at this point from any side is assumptions; but I would be shocked if two 20 year olds aren't looking to get paid big.



Of course not, but your prospect pool is not what it was a few years ago; most of the big prospects you guys have (except for Sandin and Lilly) are in the NHL.



See above.



What are you trying to say?



Fair. But talking from a purely logistical standpoint the Leafs obviously have a plan but that plan isn't clearly visible to anyone from the outside.

They are stacking themselves offensively to compete now, while remaining relevant for the foreseeable future. Sandin and Lilly are studs, but neither are NHL ready as of right now.

Your defensive core is very very weak, and with the departure of Hainsey and Gardiner the idea is it will only get worse.

Your offensive group is stacked, but you have to pay to keep them all together; even with an elite top 6, you need a viable bottom 6.

Kadri, Rielly and Andersen are on sweetheart deals that will come to an end within 4 years. When those deals go away, you will absolutely not have the cap room to re-up them all; maybe only one of them.

Unfortunately, you can't afford to not have elite goaltending with the way the team plays, and you absolutely cannot afford to lose a defenseman like Morgan, even if both your prospect pan out to be top 4 guys.

The Leafs are in a bind; and honestly I think the signing of JT is the big reason for that. I suspect Nylander and Kapanen will get moved together when the cap issues really kick it up a notch, depending on what Kappy gets as an RFA

Very good post.

Signing JT came with a cost for sure. I believe the forward group will remain solid in the bottom 6. We have Brown on a good contract, Lindholm was a great find, Hyman on a great contract, Grundstrom waiting in the wings and killing it in the AHL (very high on his game) Engvall (also high on his game) and Bracco.

I was very happy we drafted Stotts, who is having a good year with the Hitman, SDA who won't be ready for a few years (youngest in the draft, but great skillset) and Trevor Moore, just to name few.

Not saying we have stars everywhere, but we have a lot to add over the next 1-3 years when we have to move a few things around.

I am also a big fan of Lily, Rosen, and Sandin (really like Sandin's game) and I may not sleep on Druzi, I actually liked this pick.

What I mean about free wallets, we have a nice system set up overseas to scout and pay euros (think Lindholm and OZ) I believe this will become an even bigger need going forward.

My final thing is, we don't know what Morgan, Kadri, and Anderson will ask, we just don't know. Same with Matty & Marner. This thing will have to play out, but one thing for sure is the brass won't stop drafting, developing, and signing free wallets overseas. I was very happy to also see Mark Hunter go, I have more faith in our current team going forward when it comes to drafting and analytics.

What I really hate is posters saying only "Leafs are screwed, they will have to pay X and X" and have no idea on what the team is planning, and how we draft and develop. It is such a blanket statement (again, not saying you are doing this)

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

As a neutral fan I'd say Montreal probably should offer sheet Matthews. He is better than anyone they'll draft in the next 4-5 years. He'd be the #1 C they're looking for going forward.

However OS don't really happen in the modern NHL so I don't think Toronto has anything to worry about. The Leafs would match damn near any offer anyways.

We are not necessarily aiming for an other "superstar hall of fame center" we are talking about the #2c, #1D, elite sharpshooter.etc. toronto won't have a center vs center comparable, they will have 4 years worth of D,W,C,G prospects.

 

[kevsh]

The problem with the Leafs is that this year is their best chance at winning. If they don't make it to the ECF, that should show the team where they sit.

They will not be able to re-up Morgan when the time comes; and unless Freddy plays legitimately out of his mind they don't have the defensive group to beat a team that can bring it to them offensively. I don't see how Toronto beats Tampa in a 7 game series without Freddy playing impeccably. If Rask plays well, I don't see how they beat Boston.

Leafs are a real threat, and have the best offensive group in the League, but their defense is bad and only getting worse; it just doesn't look as bad because Freddy has been ridiculous this year.

That may all be true (though Reilly's contract still has a few years left), only time will tell, and even if they suffer a quick exit this spring what matters is what Matthews sees in this team. Does he believe they're only a piece or two away or does he think the Shanaplan isn't working?

Even then, he has to compare that to whatever offer he would get. Unlikely Tampa Bay or Boston will be in a position to offer sheet him, maybe Nashville? Other than that, honestly how many other teams are closer to a Cup final than the Leafs *and* can take on his contract?

Edit: For the record, I agree on your analysis of their playoff chances. They'll be in very tough just to get out of the first round, never mind the division.

 

[Kotkaniemi15]

The moment I saw this thread I started laughing. I'm all for getting more talent but there's a negative chance Marner and/or Matthews come here. Let's be somewhat realistic. If we were going to offer-sheet a top RFA, we wouldn't be trying to get Leafs players because they wouldn't leave their team for a division rival.

 

[Predsrule]

Man this makes you realize just how scary the leafs are now. Crazy leafs are right now. Let’s say worst case they lose both to offer sheets because of inflated contracts. Still leaves then with
Marleau-Tavares- Nylander
Hyman-Kadri- Kapanen
Johnsson-Gauthier- Brown
Lindholm—? -?
Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott-Ozhiganov
Marincin
Andersen
Sparks
I know it’s not the near same level but still better then some teams IMO then add in all the cap sapce and the 12 1st rounders in 4 years.... eeep and IMO this is a worst case for the leafs. No matter what happens they will be alright to the dismay of many posters on this site.

 

[yababy]

I think Toronto dumps Nylander sometime after the playoffs but before July 1st to prepare for this

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Then Dubas says take our deal and well give you 40mil for a signing bonus.
AZ isn't doing that.

Well there's that too, though there are limits on bonuses. It's my opinion, that Matthews wants to prove himself in a big market, the Leafs, on a really good team that he is one of the best NHLers. Then he goes to big market in the US.

 

[TFHockey]

I think Toronto dumps Nylander sometime after the playoffs but before July 1st to prepare for this

Why would they do this? They just signed him long term. They see his value. They could've just waited until after Dec 1st and let him play in the KHL if they were just going to dump him in the off season.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

N O B O D Y
OFFER SHEET

WONT HAPPEN , N E V E R

Jesus christ those thread are pointless