Value of: Montreal Offer-Sheeting Marner or Matthews

IWD

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May 28, 2003
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The problem with the Leafs is that this year is their best chance at winning. If they don't make it to the ECF, that should show the team where they sit.

They will not be able to re-up Morgan when the time comes; and unless Freddy plays legitimately out of his mind they don't have the defensive group to beat a team that can bring it to them offensively. I don't see how Toronto beats Tampa in a 7 game series without Freddy playing impeccably. If Rask plays well, I don't see how they beat Boston.

Leafs are a real threat, and have the best offensive group in the League, but their defense is bad and only getting worse; it just doesn't look as bad because Freddy has been ridiculous this year.

Rielly and Andersen aren't free agents for 3-4 years. Also, what metric are you using, specifically, to state that their defense is bad?
 

Frank Drebin

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Mar 9, 2004
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I'm saying that what the Leafs will offer to counter the sheet.
Once an offer sheet is signed, that is the players contract. The negotiations are over. Match or accept compensation.

Did you mean signing bonuses as a proactive deterrent to signing?
 

Mackiaveli

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Nov 24, 2015
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Rielly and Andersen aren't free agents for 3-4 years. Also, what metric are you using, specifically, to state that their defense is bad?

49.22% CF
47% SF%
Third highest Sv% in league
Fifth highest expected GA/60

Your defense stinks real bad. Your goaltender is real real good, though.
 
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Pyrophorus

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Jun 1, 2009
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Once an offer sheet is signed, that is the players contract. The negotiations are over. Match or accept compensation.

Did you mean signing bonuses as a proactive deterrent to signing?

You have to sign it, to show your GM what it is?
The numbers will get out without a signing.
The bonus would be a deterrent, as well.
 

Holymakinaw

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May 22, 2007
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How would this process work?

Could Montreal offer Matthews 14x7 and Marner 12x7, and take whomever the Leafs can't match (because they can't match both)

Is there a rule saying you can't do it that way? Is there a way for the Leafs to dodge that?

I feel like Montreal >HAS< to offer-sheet Matthews specifically; Weber and Price are signed long term and this team needs to be winning now.

LOL. Another dumb offer sheet suggestion. You clearly don't know how offer sheet draft pick compensation works.

And why would the two Leafs(or even one of them) sign offer sheets to go to a crap team???

Makes zero sense.
 

Morbo

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Jan 14, 2003
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I generally agree with you and doubt Mathews would want to go to the Coyotes and feel that the "hometown" impact is greatly over rated. I simply don't understand those who are completely dismissive of it being an option. Especially, when the Leafs benefited from it this summer.

The irony there of course is that Leaf fans were constantly derided for believing the hometown thing at all prior to Tavares.
 

Leafsloyalty66

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Jul 2, 2018
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Why would a team like the Habs want to offer sheet? A storied franchise trying to cherry pick other teams talent sounds pretty pathetic. It makes no sense that a GM can completely mess his team up but have the right to offer sheet another teams best players.
 

Mackiaveli

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Nov 24, 2015
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How exactly do these stats demonstrate your argument?

They play the hockey game.

They shoot the puck at the opponents net.

But the opponent tends to shoot the puck at their net more often than the Leafs get to shoot the puck!

Infact, they get the puck shot at their net so much that based on averages they should get scored on the 5th most in the NHL! In reality, they have the eighth lowest goals allowed, likely because they have the third best save percentage. (5/31 expected, 24/31 reality)

These stats suggest that the Leafs defense sucks, because they let the other team shoot the puck at them a whole lot, but that their goaltender is playing amazingly which is why they haven't let in that many goals.

Stats suggest that as Andersen regresses, the team will allow far more goals and they should get closer to their expected averages, because their defense is bad, and as a team they let way too many shots on goal

Currently, Freddy is at a .930 --- that means when he is facing 32 shots a game, he will make ~29.76 saves.

If Freddy drops down to a still solid .915 --- he would be making ~29.28 saves per game. This is important, because that is .48 more goals per game --- which in a 7 game series is an extra three goals, which can go a long way.

So yeah, their defense sucks. If you don't get it after that idk what to tell ya.
 
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Mackiaveli

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Nov 24, 2015
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Why would a team like the Habs want to offer sheet?

Last elite C we had was Saku Koivu. That should tell you why a player like Matthews would be very nice for us.

A storied franchise trying to cherry pick other teams talent sounds pretty pathetic.

Meh, you get it where you can get it. Pathetic or not.

It makes no sense that a GM can completely mess his team up but have the right to offer sheet another teams best players.

Well, unfortunately that is the way the game works. Fair or not, it is an option available.
 

X66

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Aug 18, 2008
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funny how Leafs fans dismiss the option of Mathews going "home" but point to Tavares taking less money to go home.

Coyotes won't even have an NHL team when Matthews is a UFA.

You guys honestly think Matthews and Marner want to play for bum-ass teams like the Islanders or Habs?
 
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Mackiaveli

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Nov 24, 2015
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LOL. Another dumb offer sheet suggestion. You clearly don't know how offer sheet draft pick compensation works.

And why would the two Leafs(or even one of them) sign offer sheets to go to a crap team???

Makes zero sense.

I mean, they could only have one of them --- I am plenty aware of that, but was wondering if they could in theory offer both (in an order) and take the first one to accept, or take the first one in the order they offered the deals etc. So, I do understand how the pick compensation works; its the nuances of the offer sheet itself that I don't quite know, hence the inquiry.

I think Marner would be less likely to accept an offer-sheet because he's a Whitby boy who grew up a Leafs fan. Matthews is a 21 year old franchise player who could be the #1C for a storied franchise, and get paid far more money to play in Montreal than in Toronto.

Montreal has its fair share of issues, but to label them a crap team is a bit ignorant. If Price was playing the way Freddy was, we'd be top 5 in the League as well --- and if we added Matthews to our team on top of that, we'd be as competitive as Toronto. Sadly, our defensive group is as good as yours will likely be next year, and our offense while not as talented is still getting the job done.
 

Mackiaveli

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Nov 24, 2015
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You guys honestly think Matthews and Marner want to play for bum-ass teams like the Islanders or Habs?

Habs have the (widely touted) best goaltender in the world. Regardless of his struggles, Carey Price when he's hot is untouchable.
Habs have one of the best defensive defensemen in the world. Regardless of his age, or contract length, RIGHT NOW Weber is still a monster.
Habs have some very talented young players, and have one of the most balanced offensive groups in the League.
Habs are the third richest franchise in the League.

I think Marner would be less inclined to want to play for Montreal as he is a Whitby boy, but I wouldn't be surprised if Matthews would sign a 14x7 sheet there.

Phil Kessel resigned with the Leafs when they were a complete dumpster fire; sometimes players will look past less than ideal situations for the right dollar amount with the right franchise.
 

Mackiaveli

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Nov 24, 2015
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Keep dreaming scabs fan. Your GM is too stupid to pull off something of this magnitude. Not to mention the plethora of other reasons people have already brought up.

Just another desperate fan of a rival team hoping we have to tear our team apart. Yawn

You're right, our GM is an idiot.

Not desperate, just think it would be a good idea --- and you will have to tear your team apart eventually --- after Kadri/Rielly/Andersen's deals expire you can't afford to renew them :)

Your defense still sucks too :)

If you want to try and insinuate someone is desperate or salty, we can talk about why your team is f***ed long term.
 

Smif

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Jan 23, 2008
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If you think the player is worth more than the compensation, you match it and negotiate a trade. Most likely, the offer is heavy with front-loaded bonuses so you match the offer, pay the signing bonus to make your asset worth more and then trade him. If Arizona signed him to an offer sheet my first call would be to every other team in the Pacific division.
 

DanM

Registered User
Oct 2, 2017
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The problem with the Leafs is that this year is their best chance at winning. If they don't make it to the ECF, that should show the team where they sit.

They will not be able to re-up Morgan when the time comes; and unless Freddy plays legitimately out of his mind they don't have the defensive group to beat a team that can bring it to them offensively. I don't see how Toronto beats Tampa in a 7 game series without Freddy playing impeccably. If Rask plays well, I don't see how they beat Boston.

Leafs are a real threat, and have the best offensive group in the League, but their defense is bad and only getting worse; it just doesn't look as bad because Freddy has been ridiculous this year.

Let me ask this.

Not discounting everything you said, I respect all opinions, but I have a few points.

1. Nobody knows what Marner or Matty is thinking.

2. Have the Leafs stopped drafting and developing?

3. Do we not have a single prospect in the minors?

4. We spend a lot of money on finding free wallets, is this going to just stop?

I have a hard time hearing posters speak, only because they share what they feel, but assume the team has no process, or that management is stupid (not saying you are, but in general)
 
Mar 14, 2011
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Just dont see it happening, a team could have offered Johnny hockey who was unsigned till Oct, a 7.8 x 5 contract and kept the compensation at 1st 2nd and 3rd and another team had months to offer Nylander a 8 x 5 contract for the same comp but neither of this happened. Signing an RFAs to a ridiculous amount like whats being thrown in the thread will just further inflate the price of the other RFA in the league which have already went up thanks to the Drai and Eichel contract and the Nylander debacle has apparently got the management of many other teams worried (according to a recent Mirtle article) as it just gave future RFAs even more bargaining power.

You can bet that whoever throws an absurd contract to Matthews, Laine, Connor, Rantanen or any other of the RFAs this summer will incur the ire of the rest of the league, I can imagine rising RFA price will be a popular topic if a lockout were to happen next year. GMs wants RFA to remain "cost controlled" but Chia really threw a dark cloud on the rest of the league when he decided to give Drai 2 mill more than what Johnny Hockey got a year before.
 

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