Yes, that's basically all I have to say and let me explain you why:
- Your sample size is very very very small.
- You are projecting based on LIMITED highly subjective observations.
- You are judging the academy and its future importance based on its first class. Hint: It was never about the first 5 years, the results, good or bad, should be evaluated when guys that did ALL of their development at the club start reaching MLS.
- Confirmation bias (I mean, the Romario Williams analysis is laughable at best - not because it is necessarily wrong, but because it is based on... nothing)
I could easily say that Maxime Crépeau, based on what I saw from him at the Pan-Am games and against the USA, is a future star in MLS. That would be based on as much evidence as your predictions are (and would be as likely to be true)
The reason I said "let's agree to disagree" is not because I think the Academy players are superior to the players we drafted (some are, some aren't), but because we would argue in circles for days considering HOW your assessment was made. There is nothing tangible to discuss. You are rating guys based on 2 or 3 preseason matches. It is highly possible that NONE of them ever have any lasting positive impact on the team (well, except Porter who scored the most epic goal in franchise history, but that's still not sustained contribution). It is also possible that some of them become stars. You cannot assess success rate for the last two drafts NOW! As we cannot assess our academy's success based on the first wave of "not totally trained here" guys.
My point about the MLS draft was that it was much more of a crapshoot than good pro-scouting and in-house development (you will miss more with your homegrown guys, but those that reach the first team are more likely to succeed than draftees, especially as academies throughout North America grow). Our resources shouldn't be focused on the draft. We have to be serious about it, but you ABSOLUTELY CANNOT build from it - meaning that if the draft, like in the NFL or NHL, is your best bet to improve your team, you are in deep trouble. Doesn't mean you cannot get good players from it. Hell, I'd be the happiest fan in the world if we can have a good success rate (one or two Mallace/Wenger caliber players each year would be exceptional, tbh). It just shouldn't be a priority especially if your definition of success is Andrew Wenger (if that's the caliber of player MOST first overall picks produce, it tells you all it has to about the draft - shouldn't be your primary source of players). That's all I am saying, not that you cannot get good players and should NECESSARILY trade all of your picks. However, if a first round pick is the price to pay for an established player, you pay it every time.
Oh, and last thing, you realize that Maxim Tissot, a guy that has experience at the MLS level and who has already shown that he CAN be a contributor (not a star, not a starter, but a quality squad player) is the same age/younger than many guys that have been drafted THIS YEAR! Same for many academy players except Lefevre who is older.
TL;DR You have limited data and you are making wild guesses based on it. You could be right, you could be wrong. That's not an evaluation we can and should try to make at the moment.
... change of heart, eh?
