Speculation: Monahan forward most likely dealt first

[pth2]

I'm assuming Calgary's pick would be higher than Florida's if they nothing finish bottom 10. Calgary, on paper, should finish with a bottom-5 record next year. I can't see Florida being nearly that bad. And if they are bad, their pick will be around 10. If both finish bottom-10 then I believe Montreal gets the Flames' natural pick.

But as you said, Montreal doesn't get that pick if the Flames draft 1st. And there likely wouldn't be a ton of difference between the two picks otherwise. So maybe it's not a huge deal.

The likelihood though is the Habs getting a mid-to-late 1st from the Florida pick and Calgary just tanking.

I guess the ideal situation for the Habs would be Florida finishing bottom-10, the Flames drafting 1st overall in 2025 and the Montreal pick bumping to an unprotected 2026 (where the Flames could finish very low again). That is the disaster scenario for the Flames.

I'm just saying, there is no scenario in which Calgary helping Florida does anything positive for Calgary.

 

[Double Dion]

I'm assuming Calgary's pick would be higher than Florida's if they nothing finish bottom 10. Calgary, on paper, should finish with a bottom-5 record next year. I can't see Florida being nearly that bad. And if they are bad, their pick will be around 10. If both finish bottom-10 then I believe Montreal gets the Flames' natural pick.

But as you said, Montreal doesn't get that pick if the Flames draft 1st. And there likely wouldn't be a ton of difference between the two picks otherwise. So maybe it's not a huge deal.

The likelihood though is the Habs getting a mid-to-late 1st from the Florida pick and Calgary just tanking.

I guess the ideal situation for the Habs would be Florida finishing bottom-10, the Flames drafting 1st overall in 2025 and the Montreal pick bumping to an unprotected 2026 (where the Flames could finish very low again). That is the disaster scenario for the Flames.

Barring catastrophic goaltending in Florida I don't see a scenario where they finish bottom 10.

 

[Hunter368]

I mean when you say centers on the market you are literally only talking about Monahan and maybe henrique. There's seven or eight teams looking to buy with less than five worthwhile players available.

No, I'm not saying that. The media is only talking about a smaller subset of centres currently bc those are the ones being thrown out to the media now. We all know there are teams who will like not make the playoffs by the TDL and likely more centers will be available. I highly doubt Monahan/Henrique will be the only ones available. The media only knows what it knows, which is less then GM's know. Plus as teams fall out of the playoffs players will be made available. Who? When? TBD

 

[MasterMatt25]

At the end of the day, no matter what we think, GMs think different. We don’t know shit for a particular player’s value

 

[Ezpz]

more players always become available closer to the deadline and were still a month away

Except when you look at the pending free agents there are not more players available even on fringe teams. Nobody trades for term at the deadline.

 

[CDN24]

Even then.... the deal for a conditional pick is done. Signed, sealed and only the final outcome isn't known.

I'm struggling to see how helping Florida can ever help Calgary. The only way really to "game" the deal is Calgary deliberately being worse to make sure their pick is in the top-10, so Montreal gets a (less attractive) Florida pick (and if Florida has a bad season as well, if both picks are top-10, Montreal gets the less attractive one). But Florida doing better doesn't help out Calgary.

Calgary sending assets to Florida could help Calgary be a worse team.... but Calgary can be worse without helping out Florida. At this point, changing Florida's draft ranking can never actually change a material result for Calgary. It can only change the value received by Montreal, but really, why should Calgary care at this point ?

The only scenario that can screw Calgary is if they don't get the FLA pick.
One way was if FLA's 2024 pick did not go to Philly and Philly got 2025 instead- that won't happen as its top 10 protection and Fla will comfortably be a playoff team this year.
The other way is if FLA has a collapse next year- the pick to Calgary is lottery protected. so lets say the pick is top 10 and Fla wins one of the lottery draws - they keep their pick. In that case mtl gets Calgary's pick unless its no 1.

So if at the deadline Calgary is bottom 3 in the league (possible) and Fla is trending to being bottom 10 (or a non playoff team even as they can still win the lottery just not get to no 1). then there is a risk - not large because of lottery odds that FLA wins a lottery and Calgary could lose a top 5 pick to mtl without receiving the FLA pick.

Its remote as FLA has to miss playoffs and win lottery but to avoid that risk if you are dumping player anyway- why not dump something good to FLA to help minimize that risk.

 

[JT3]

Habs fans expecting a Lindholm return or a top prospect (Perrault, McGroarty, whoever) are out to lunch. Other fans saying we'll get a late 2nd or 3rd at best are also out to lunch.

Trying to use cherry picked advanced stats to diminish Monahan is silly, because newsflash, he's playing on a crap team, literally everyone's advanced stats are crap. I will concede that his injury history is still some concern, but he has been healthy all year so far at least, and at the end of the day he's a 55% FO center who's taking 60% dzone draws for the Habs right now. He can put up 50-60 points, slide anywhere up and down your lineup at center or wing, and he's an awesome dude to have in the locker room by all accounts. All of this for only a 2m cap hit or even less if salary is retained, that's tremendous value.

Given the market, what he can provide, and what the media is reporting, it's reasonable to expect him to return a late 1st or at least a 2nd + B prospect. Habs also have the ability to take back an expiring cap dump or roster player for further flexibility which would increase the return slightly as well.

 

[gojetsgo]

Except when you look at the pending free agents there are not more players available even on fringe teams. Nobody trades for term at the deadline.

niederreiter
zucker
granlund
greenway
chychrun
ekholm
those are 6 guys with term traded and that's with little searching lol

 

[AslanRH]

Nobody trades for term at the deadline.

term/control lately has been a + in many deadline deals over the last few seasons.
Hagel, Lehky, Jeannot, etc all had added value due to their status

edit: also the post above mentioned more

 

[pth2]

The only scenario that can screw Calgary is if they don't get the FLA pick.
One way was if FLA's 2024 pick did not go to Philly and Philly got 2025 instead- that won't happen as its top 10 protection and Fla will comfortably be a playoff team this year.
The other way is if FLA has a collapse next year- the pick to Calgary is lottery protected. so lets say the pick is top 10 and Fla wins one of the lottery draws - they keep their pick. In that case mtl gets Calgary's pick unless its no 1.

So if at the deadline Calgary is bottom 3 in the league (possible) and Fla is trending to being bottom 10 (or a non playoff team even as they can still win the lottery just not get to no 1). then there is a risk - not large because of lottery odds that FLA wins a lottery and Calgary could lose a top 5 pick to mtl without receiving the FLA pick.

Its remote as FLA has to miss playoffs and win lottery but to avoid that risk if you are dumping player anyway- why not dump something good to FLA to help minimize that risk.

ok, yeah, making sure Florida isn't in the bottom 10 (post-lottery) does materially help out Calgary.... but statistically it's pretty far out there.

 

[Baksfamous112]

I
I will be happy with only a 1st. I am not expecting anything to come with the 1st unless it's a bigger deal (Allen/Savard...).

Me neither. A plain first round pick is right around the value he will bring ton a team.

I don’t think Allen has any sort of value. Maybe a late pick. At this point just getting rid of the contract should be good enough for Hughes.

I have high hopes for a Savard return. Tampa is reported to be in the market for a D. I would LOVE their 2026 1st for Savard and they already won a cup with him.

 

[pth2]

term/control lately has been a + in many deadline deals over the last few seasons.
Hagel, Lehky, Jeannot, etc all had added value due to their status

edit: also the post above mentioned more

Team control isn't the same as longer contracts, though.

Lehkonen could've been not qualified, or not offered anything beyong a qualifying offer, if he didn't turn out as a good fit in Colorado (or if some other even meant Colorado had no cap room).

 

[CDN24]

Except when you look at the pending free agents there are not more players available even on fringe teams. Nobody trades for term at the deadline.

At centre there is not much on expiring contracts at all. If ever Tampa was out of playoffs at deadline- Stamkos could return a ton but Tampa is 8-2 in last 10 with a 7 pt cushion on teams on the outside.

Other than Monahan and Henrique
Dallas is not trading Duchene, Vegas is not trading Stephenson,
what else might be available Novak from Preds, Wennberg from seattle. There are no UFA centres likely to free up.

 

[CDN24]

Me neither. A plain first round pick is right around the value he will bring ton a team.

I don’t think Allen has any sort of value. Maybe a late pick. At this point just getting rid of the contract should be good enough for Hughes.

I have high hopes for a Savard return. Tampa is reported to be in the market for a D. I would LOVE their 2026 1st for Savard and they already won a cup with him.

I would retain on Savard and throw in a 3rd round pick to get their 2026 1st. I could even live with top 5 protection on it if it meant falling to 2027 unprotected

 

[CanadienShark]

Eh, there's not really gonna be much out there centre-wise even after a bunch of these bubble teams fall out of contention.

From the bottom teams Chicago, San Jose, Minnesota, Ottawa (Pinto won't be traded), Arizona, and Washington have nothing of interest to offer at centre. Buffalo has Mittelstadt but he's unlikely to move and will have a much much higher price than Monahan. Anaheim has Henrique and I suppose Zegras if you wanna believe he's available but he'll also cost a fortune and is a obvi a much different situation than Monahan. Columbus has Roslovic but he sucks balls and has 2 goals this year. Calgary I suppose has Backlund but he is signed for 2 years at $4.5 after this and you would have to retain for both years which would cost compensation. Plus Monahan is better.

From the middle bubble teams New Jersey, NYI, Nashville, Detroit and St. Louis (unless you're a fan of Kevin Hayes at $3.5 for 2 more years) all have nothing to offer. Pittsburgh has Lars Eller and... Sidney Crosby (could you imagine). Seattle has Wennberg but he sucks as well and Philly has Morgan Frost who could conceivably move but will likely have a high ask and doesn't have the experience that Monahan does.

That's it. Everybody else is surely a contender and won't be selling but rather will be buying. I suppose somebody could make a monster splash and make cap room for a big contract that has multiple years left on it but I'll have to see that to believe it. I'm here for it though, an action packed trade deadline is always fun.

Anyways long story short, no, there isn't any supply. It is in the hands of Montreal, Anaheim, and maybe Philadelphia or Buffalo if they wanna capitalize on Frost or Mittelstadt but those will be different deals with young player premiums. A 1st++ is coming, that's why Vancouver jumped the gun here.

Uhhhh?

Hertl and Couture exist. Both are known to be excellent in the playoffs.

 

[Eegs]

Monahan to NYR for Berard and a 3rd?

Habs fans (and likely non-Hab fans) are going to say "Just another Smurf lolololol", but I really like the player and would be down for a deal such as this.

Ranger fans, would Brett Berard be available in a deal with Monahan?

 

[CanadienShark]

Why even bother to say stuff like that. Everyone knows its not true. It’s so aggressive.

It's posts like that that make Habs fans look bad, and Habs haters use as ammunition when they try to paint us all with the same brush.

 

[Ezpz]

Uhhhh?

Hertl and Couture exist. Both are known to be excellent in the playoffs.

Couture has three more years at 8 mil and isn't worth that already based on the short sample since his return and has more injury question marks than Monahan as a result of that. He could go in a hockey deal with cap back but he's not a deadline target. At least not this year.

 

[Moose Head]

Uhhhh?

Hertl and Couture exist. Both are known to be excellent in the playoffs.

Both are under long term deals. Anybody buying likely don’t see them as viable options at the deadline. If the sharks want to move on from them, they’re more of the draft time type of trades.

 

[CanadienShark]

Couture has three more years at 8 mil and isn't worth that already based on the short sample since his return and has more injury question marks than Monahan as a result of that. He could go in a hockey deal with cap back but he's not a deadline target. At least not this year.

Both are under long term deals. Anybody buying likely don’t see them as viable options at the deadline. If the sharks want to move on from them, they’re more of the draft time type of trades.

Retained, of course for Couture. I can guarantee there would be more of a market for those two than Monahan. Monahan just isn't that calibre of player. Some Boston fans here have already been talking about both players. And both would be a great fit with them, unfortunately.

 

[bl02]

Monahan to NYR for Berard and a 3rd?

Habs fans (and likely non-Hab fans) are going to say "Just another Smurf lolololol", but I really like the player and would be down for a deal such as this.

Ranger fans, would Brett Berard be available in a deal with Monahan?

Not to this NYR fan. Berard and Sykora are two guys the Rangers should not trade especially for a UFA. Bottom 6/ Middle 6 guys who play a certain style with some skill that they sorely need. Almost rather give up a first surely a 2nd rather than either of those 2.

 

[D0ctorCool]

more players always become available closer to the deadline and were still a month away

any guesses as to which centers may become available?

 

[Ezpz]

niederreiter
zucker
granlund
greenway
chychrun
ekholm
those are 6 guys with term traded and that's with little searching lol

I'm not talking about guys with a year or two left.

There's no pending center free agents in 2025 either save maybe Giroux if the sens are really throwing in the towel for next year too. Granlund has failed as a deadline acquisition multiple times and is more of a winger. I could see maybe Seattle trading gourde for a haul but that's about it.

There are zero centers on expiring summer of 2026 contracts that aren't on teams that will be buyers.

If you actually looked at this deadline and the next two it's very slim pickings as all the good free agents are on playoff teams.

 

[Eegs]

Not to this NYR fan. Berard and Sykora are two guys the Rangers should not trade especially for a UFA. Bottom 6/ Middle 6 guys who play a certain style with some skill that they sorely need. Almost rather give up a first surely a 2nd rather than either of those 2.

Kind of what I thought. I am guessing most Ranger fans share your sentiment, whereas most Habs fans would think i'm nuts for wanting to makes such a move.

 

[Colezuki]

Barring catastrophic goaltending in Florida I don't see a scenario where they finish bottom 10.

Agreed, but I still feel its better to role the dice next year then take the late 1st now