Speculation: Monahan forward most likely dealt first

[HuGort]

You might want to check back the conditions of the 1st round pick we got for taking Monahan. The most likely scenario, assuming they do not trade Florida's pick, is it ends up being the Florida pick which is possibly going to be a late one. We're only getting a lottery pick if both Calgary and Florida are lottery picks.

And in the event they do trade the Florida pick, it will actually likely be tied to some conditions tied to that Monahan pick's conditions, because that's the fad now.

We get best of the two if both in top ten. Which is most likely scenario. Florida likely to fall also. They going to lose Reinhart.

 

[TS Quint]

Except when you look at the pending free agents there are not more players available even on fringe teams. Nobody trades for term at the deadline.

Welcome to your first trade deadline. Thing might not have been as you were told.

 

[pth2]

We get best of the two if both in top ten. Which is most likely scenario. Florida likely to fall also. They going to lose Reinhart.

No, if both picks are top-10, Montreal gets the lesser of the two.

If both are outside the top-10, then Montreal gets the better of them.

If one is top-10 and one isn't, Montreal gets the non-top-10 pick.

The trade conditions were well thought-out to give Montreal interesting value but not extremely high value.

 

[Hunter368]

I'll be curious how other GM's will approach any potential Monahan trade, trade for him sooner risking injury regret or hold off until the last min to avoid injury regret but might miss out on trading for him bc he was traded to some other team. Curious

 

[Bond]

No, if both picks are top-10, Montreal gets the lesser of the two.

If both are outside the top-10, then Montreal gets the better of them.

If one is top-10 and one isn't, Montreal gets the non-top-10 pick.

The trade conditions were well thought-out to give Montreal interesting value but not extremely high value.

Yup, I feel like at this point the only way the Flames get screwed is if Panthers finish just outside of the playoff picture next year and then win the lottery. I don't think they will be a natural bottom 10 team. Lots of competition for those bottom 10 spots lol

I'll be curious how other GM's will approach any potential Monahan trade, trade for him sooner risking injury regret or hold off until the last min to avoid injury regret but might miss out on trading for him bc he was traded to some other team. Curious

I am going to guess he gets traded on the deadline

 

[Kosseca]

I'll be curious how other GM's will approach any potential Monahan trade, trade for him sooner risking injury regret or hold off until the last min to avoid injury regret but might miss out on trading for him bc he was traded to some other team. Curious

This is a fair point. Then again, this as to be balanced by the fact that additional time with the team help to learn and apply the team system, and for certain team, help secure a playoff spot.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

We get best of the two if both in top ten. Which is most likely scenario. Florida likely to fall also. They going to lose Reinhart.

Florida might fall, but thinking they'd fall into the bottom 10 is not an "educated" prediction even if they lose Reinhart. It MIGHT happen, but that's not likely. This is setting yourself up for disappointment.

They might re-sign Reinhart too. They will sign other players; they'll have nearly 30M in cap space if they don't re-sign anyone. They still have a good core upfront with Barkov/Tkachuk/Verhaeghe - they're not gonna make "rebuild" moves.

Also: see what @pth2 said regarding the best of the two. Obviously that'd remain a Top 10 pick.

 

[pth2]

I'll be curious how other GM's will approach any potential Monahan trade, trade for him sooner risking injury regret or hold off until the last min to avoid injury regret but might miss out on trading for him bc he was traded to some other team. Curious

This is also where the Lindholm deal has an effect - with one fewer option, any GM stalling to avoid/lower injury risk is himself taking the risk of another team upping their offer to something Montreal can't risk turning down.

Personally, I think the best approach is a conditional deal, and that's something Kent Hughes has shown he likes to deal with. This would tend to favor a slow-cooked deal that is talked over a few days rather than a sudden last-minute deadline deal.

 

[CanadienShark]

Because it doesn't happen, nobody is gonna pay what it costs for 4 years of retention on a broken Couture. And NOBODY is gonna do it for 7 years of Hertl, it's so ridiculous it borders on insanity to discuss it at length.

You're being a Shark homer and clogging up the thread. Those guys will still be Sharks at the end of the deadline. Absolutely no question about it.

Chill dude, I'm a fan of both teams. You're just looking for an argument for some reason.

 

[pth2]

Florida might fall, but thinking they'd fall into the bottom 10 is not an "educated" prediction even if they lose Reinhart. It MIGHT happen, but that's not likely. This is setting yourself up for disappointment.

They might re-sign Reinhart too. They will sign other players; they'll have nearly 30M in cap space if they don't re-sign anyone. They still have a good core upfront with Barkov/Tkachuk/Verhaeghe - they're not gonna make "rebuild" moves.

Also: see what @pth2 said regarding the best of the two. Obviously that'd remain a Top 10 pick.

It's fun to look at the best-case scenario for our team, but you have a very good point that it's dangerous to assume this scenario.

I find it's best to analyze the most-likely scenario, and work from there.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

It's fun to look at the best-case scenario for our team, but you have a very good point that it's dangerous to assume this scenario.

I find it's best to analyze the most-likely scenario, and work from there.

We all learned it the hard way with the pick we got for Chiarot !

 

[Hunter368]

This is also where the Lindholm deal has an effect - with one fewer option, any GM stalling to avoid/lower injury risk is himself taking the risk of another team upping their offer to something Montreal can't risk turning down.

Personally, I think the best approach is a conditional deal, and that's something Kent Hughes has shown he likes to deal with. This would tend to favor a slow-cooked deal that is talked over a few days rather than a sudden last-minute deadline deal.

Don't disagree, I highly suspect with Monahan's past any deal will be conditional based return based on games played or something similar.

 

[pth2]

We all learned it the hard way with the pick we got for Chiarot !

I still have a tankathon screenshot where I'd got the lottery to give Montreal picks 1 and 2 - Berard and Fantilli.

Don't disagree, I highly suspect with Monahan's past any deal will be conditional based return based on games played or something similar.

If we go by the deal sending Monahan to Montreal, we can assume multiple conditions, distributing the injury risk between the acquiring team and Montreal. Meaning, if Monahan gets hurt the day after a trade, Montreal ends up getting little to nothing.... but if he stays healthy, the return will be equivalent to what one would've expected for a mid-6C who never, ever, gets injured.

EDIT: correcting a messed-up turn of phrase.

 

[pth2]

Random thought concerning Monahan: I wouldn't be surprised if he got dealt for a prospect drafted in 2022, the Habs current management's first draft... so they will have done some homework on players, and are likely well-versed on many who went 20-40 since they had several picks to make, and I've found teams often fall back on draft day scouting when trading for younger guys.

 

[HuGort]

Florida might fall, but thinking they'd fall into the bottom 10 is not an "educated" prediction even if they lose Reinhart. It MIGHT happen, but that's not likely. This is setting yourself up for disappointment.

They might re-sign Reinhart too. They will sign other players; they'll have nearly 30M in cap space if they don't re-sign anyone. They still have a good core upfront with Barkov/Tkachuk/Verhaeghe - they're not gonna make "rebuild" moves.

Also: see what @pth2 said regarding the best of the two. Obviously that'd remain a Top 10 pick.

Their defense is UFA also. Other than Ekblad.

 

[General Fanager]

Random thought concerning Monahan: I wouldn't be surprised if he got dealt for a prospect drafted in 2022, the Habs current management's first draft... so they will have done some homework on players, and are likely well-versed on many who went 20-40 since they had several picks to make, and I've found teams often fall back on draft day scouting when trading for younger guys.

Personally I would prefer this approach. Maybe not the 2022 part but picks may be years away while a prospect in the 20-22 years old range fits the cores timeline. Unless they gather picks and use them to trade like the Dach deal....

 

[Chaos2k7]

Their defense is UFA also. Other than Ekblad.

Lots of Atlantic fans will be disappointed this offseason

 

[pth2]

Personally I would prefer this approach. Maybe not the 2022 part but picks may be years away while a prospect in the 20-22 years old range fits the cores timeline. Unless they gather picks and use them to trade like the Dach deal....

Well, if it's current management and what they learned about prospects before drafting them, that means 2022 or 2023 drafts. That being said, I could imagine Hughes going through another 2-step process like for Dach (ie, getting picks from team 1, moving them to team 2 for a signed player/prospect)

 

[jgimp]

I'll be curious how other GM's will approach any potential Monahan trade, trade for him sooner risking injury regret or hold off until the last min to avoid injury regret but might miss out on trading for him bc he was traded to some other team. Curious

I would have serious questions whether he could stand up to the rigours of playoffs. I’m sure a lot of GMs are wondering the same

 

[ole ole]

What do you mean? I quoted almost PPG statement in my post.

Y a which he isn't.

 

[Petes2424]

You thing the Panthers were thinking of extending Chiarot when they dealt a 1st and prospect for him? Probably not, but habs got premium value because of supply/demand. The same type of opportunity is there with Monahan.

Unfortunately for Montreal, Florida was one of the only teams slinging 1st Rounders for pure rentals, and they’re all out of them.

 

[General Fanager]

Well, if it's current management and what they learned about prospects before drafting them, that means 2022 or 2023 drafts. That being said, I could imagine Hughes going through another 2-step process like for Dach (ie, getting picks from team 1, moving them to team 2 for a signed player/prospect)

They have been in MTL for those years but have been in hockey forever so im sure they have books on most guys in the top of the draft going back many years....

 

[General Fanager]

Unfortunately for Montreal, Florida was one of the only teams slinging 1st Rounders for pure rentals, and they’re all out of them.

Prospects taken in the first works also.....

 

[pth2]

They have been in MTL for those years but have been in hockey forever so im sure they have books on most guys in the top of the draft going back many years....

I know.... but they might all have been in different organisations, with differing priorities about what to look for in players, etc.

If they are looking at a kid drafted in a draft in which they were researching the players they thought were a fit, they'll have a dossier on many of the guys taken in the first couple of round, based on a consensus opinion of the guys from that same job. (compare opening up an old file at work or school, with the same professors/classmates/bosses/coworkers, where a consensus was reached and general agreement was shared on the important points, versus looking at an old file that you worked in a different environment with different people, who worked the same file from a completely different angle. Consensus will be near-impossible to figure out)

 

[ole ole]

There's only like 1 or 2 people who expect to get a Perrault/McGroarty caliber prospect. The vast majority of habs fans expect a late 1st (or equivalent prospect) and a lesser piece

So true but it seems that the ......... just like to take the few and combine them with the whole fanbase.