Speculation: Monahan forward most likely dealt first

[Kairi Zaide]

I bet ya Habs get more for Monahan than Lindholm returned? Including Flames first we already have in '25 draft. That's a stacked draft and Flames pick likely lottery pick. Then we get a late first in this draft plus a throw in.

Lindholm returned Canucks first in '24 draft but that will be about 30th in a weak draft. Hunter good prospect but doubt worth a first. The 4th is a throw in. We get one in second Monahan trade also. So that's a wash.

You might want to check back the conditions of the 1st round pick we got for taking Monahan. The most likely scenario, assuming they do not trade Florida's pick, is it ends up being the Florida pick which is possibly going to be a late one. We're only getting a lottery pick if both Calgary and Florida are lottery picks.

And in the event they do trade the Florida pick, it will actually likely be tied to some conditions tied to that Monahan pick's conditions, because that's the fad now.

 

[pth2]

..... We're only getting a lottery pick if both Calgary and Florida are lottery picks.
...

If by lottery pick you mean top-10 pick, this is correct.

But if Calgary is in the same level next season as this one - ie, one of the better non-playoff teams, with a pick projected between 10 and 16, then the Habs can get a 10-16th overall pick. (and if Calgary makes the playoffs and then gets bumped in the 1st, then the pick stays pretty good)

Next season, Habs fans should be cheering for Calgary and hoping they don't win the lottery.

 

[madmike77]

If by lottery pick you mean top-10 pick, this is correct.

But if Calgary is in the same level next season as this one - ie, one of the better non-playoff teams, with a pick projected between 10 and 16, then the Habs can get a 10-16th overall pick. (and if Calgary makes the playoffs and then gets bumped in the 1st, then the pick stays pretty good)

Next season, Habs fans should be cheering for Calgary and hoping they don't win the lottery.

As a Flames fan, I can tell you there is almost no chance Calgary makes the playoffs next year in a stacked Pacific division. It's much more likely they'll be competing for a top-5 pick.

It's still possible Florida could drop into the bottom 10 next season due to FA, injuries, etc., but at the moment it doesn't look too likely. There are a lot of really bad teams.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

If by lottery pick you mean top-10 pick, this is correct.

But if Calgary is in the same level next season as this one - ie, one of the better non-playoff teams, with a pick projected between 10 and 16, then the Habs can get a 10-16th overall pick. (and if Calgary makes the playoffs and then gets bumped in the 1st, then the pick stays pretty good)

Next season, Habs fans should be cheering for Calgary and hoping they don't win the lottery.

That's correct, I was mostly adressing the event where CGY's pick is top 10. Not sure I expect Calgary to perform better next offseason though, unless Hubby goes back to being good. Especially if Hanifin and Tanev are gone.

 

[57special]

Monahan probably gets a late 1st. Good for both sides. Anything more than that, MTL wins. Anything less, then CO....oop...."other teams", win.

 

[madmike77]

That's correct, I was mostly adressing the event where CGY's pick is top 10. Not sure I expect Calgary to perform better next offseason though, unless Hubby goes back to being good. Especially if Hanifin and Tanev are gone.

Yeah losing Hanifin and Tanev is the real issue. That's one entire pairing gone from the top 4. All the Flames would have left is Anderson, Weegar, likely a couple of rookies and a couple of middling FAs. I doubt anyone they pick up will come close to replacing Hanifin/Tanev, so the odds are they'll be quite a bit worse next year.

It's still possible Hanifin and/or Tanev re-signs with them, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[pman25]

I would guess Monahan value a first plus good prospect. He's top center on market now with 7-8 bidders. He'll return full blown retail.

7-8 bidders? Who are these teams? There are only so many teams that have a need for a PP depth center AND would have a “late first”

I would say there are realistically 2-3 teams at best who could move a late 1st for Monahan. And it’s just as likely likely that the market for him completely evaporates if those teams go for a different target.

 

[madmike77]

The way the Flames-Montreal trade works, it would actually be in the Flames' interest to help Florida out, if the Panthers are anywhere close to the bottom 10 by giving them NHL assets for little in return. Not saying it would happen, but it would be an interesting scenario.

 

[Baksfamous112]

In the end, we all see posters on the main boards/team boards with very high expectations to very low expectations on the Monahan return (or for that matter any TDL on any player on any team), in the end it will be some where in between. IMO I'm not so sure the Lindholm trade changes any return for Monahan, albeit its one less center available which helps all centers returns a bit. I've said for a long time Monahan return likely is around the 2nd to 2nd+ from someone, a late 1st isn't impossible depending how the center market shakes down and my opinion has changed yet. Assuming Monahan doesn't get hurt again of course.

And I’m all for that. To me, it’s the « Monahan as more points therefor his return will be more than Lindholm » statement that gets me.

I’ve always believed Monahan will get a first and I still do. I just don’t think anything else will come with the first, let alone a good top 6F and a decent to good prospect.

 

[Ezpz]

In the end, we all see posters on the main boards/team boards with very high expectations to very low expectations on the Monahan return (or for that matter any TDL on any player on any team), in the end it will be some where in between. IMO I'm not so sure the Lindholm trade changes any return for Monahan, albeit its one less center available which helps all centers returns a bit. I've said for a long time Monahan return likely is around the 2nd to 2nd+ from someone, a late 1st isn't impossible depending how the center market shakes down and my opinion has changed yet. Assuming Monahan doesn't get hurt again of course.

I mean when you say centers on the market you are literally only talking about Monahan and maybe henrique. There's seven or eight teams looking to buy with less than five worthwhile players available.

 

[gojetsgo]

I mean when you say centers on the market you are literally only talking about Monahan and maybe henrique. There's seven or eight teams looking to buy with less than five worthwhile players available.

more players always become available closer to the deadline and were still a month away

 

[pth2]

The way the Flames-Montreal trade works, it would actually be in the Flames' interest to help Florida out, if the Panthers are anywhere close to the bottom 10 by giving them NHL assets for little in return. Not saying it would happen, but it would be an interesting scenario.

Not really in Calgary's interest to help out Florida. Florida getting the 17th or 32nd pick doesn't change anything from Calgary's point of view (assuming Calgary isn't a playoff team). It changes the value obtained by Montreal, but it doesn't give Calgary anything.

 

[CDN24]

The way the Flames-Montreal trade works, it would actually be in the Flames' interest to help Florida out, if the Panthers are anywhere close to the bottom 10 by giving them NHL assets for little in return. Not saying it would happen, but it would be an interesting scenario.

Exactly, Calgary needs Fla or themselves to be good. If it can't be them- then help out FLA. Habs can't complain after the moves Pollock made to make LA better to ensure golden seals finished last to get lafleur back in the early 70s

Edit PTH2 above me makes sense

 

[madmike77]

Not really in Calgary's interest to help out Florida. Florida getting the 17th or 32nd pick doesn't change anything from Calgary's point of view (assuming Calgary isn't a playoff team). It changes the value obtained by Montreal, but it doesn't give Calgary anything.

Yes it only makes sense if Florida is a borderline team. If Florida is anywhere near as good as they should be, then Calgary can just tank away and not worry about it.

 

[crackdown44]

For the people saying Lindholm returned more because Calgary took on Kuzmenko as a dump, it’s not like Montreal can’t or won’t take back some bad salary to facilitate a trade and increase their return

They can and they’ve shown that they’re willing to do so

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Some Habs fans expecting recently drafted 1st round prospects are gonna be disappointed. Perrault or McGroarty? Lmao

There's only like 1 or 2 people who expect to get a Perrault/McGroarty caliber prospect. The vast majority of habs fans expect a late 1st (or equivalent prospect) and a lesser piece

 

[TS Quint]

Oh? The large majority did not want and called him a prima donna. He sucks.

That’s a lie. The Habs board had a poll and 85% wanted him.

 

[Chose]

I have the feeling it's going to be Monahan vs Kakko, Hugues will package that with a pick or a young talent to entice the Rs.

Kakko is exactly what Hugues goes after. His defensive play & potential will please HuGo.

 

[Huffer]

I have the feeling it's going to be Monahan vs Kakko, Hugues will package that with a pick or a young talent to entice the Rs.

Kakko is exactly what Hugues goes after. His defensive play & potential will please HuGo.

The Rangers really do seem like a really good fit.

 

[rangersfansince08]

If it means a cup instead of going out early Monahan worth a fortune. Rangers have more holes now that Chyil gone for season and Lindholm traded. Sellers market now and Monahan top bird available .Stay Tuned, Monahan situation very interesting

Rangers aren't a legit contender to begin with and Monahan isn't going to make them one either

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

That’s a lie. The Habs board had a poll and 85% wanted him.

True the vast majority of habs fans wanted this dude , good thing the fans don't run the team , well actually nevermind , good thing Bergevin dosent run the team anymore!


Even I wanted the guy for Dvorak+ small add if we could lock him up at 8 mill or so , in hindsight it would have been a massive overpay.

 

[HuGort]

Why even bother to say stuff like that. Everyone knows its not true. It’s so aggressive.

Aggressive?

 

[pth2]

Yes it only makes sense if Florida is a borderline team. If Florida is anywhere near as good as they should be, then Calgary can just tank away and not worry about it.

Even then.... the deal for a conditional pick is done. Signed, sealed and only the final outcome isn't known.

I'm struggling to see how helping Florida can ever help Calgary. The only way really to "game" the deal is Calgary deliberately being worse to make sure their pick is in the top-10, so Montreal gets a (less attractive) Florida pick (and if Florida has a bad season as well, if both picks are top-10, Montreal gets the less attractive one). But Florida doing better doesn't help out Calgary.

Calgary sending assets to Florida could help Calgary be a worse team.... but Calgary can be worse without helping out Florida. At this point, changing Florida's draft ranking can never actually change a material result for Calgary. It can only change the value received by Montreal, but really, why should Calgary care at this point ?

 

[JustAHabFan]

I

And I’m all for that. To me, it’s the « Monahan as more points therefor his return will be more than Lindholm » statement that gets me.

I’ve always believed Monahan will get a first and I still do. I just don’t think anything else will come with the first, let alone a good top 6F and a decent to good prospect.

I will be happy with only a 1st. I am not expecting anything to come with the 1st unless it's a bigger deal (Allen/Savard...).

 

[madmike77]

Even then.... the deal for a conditional pick is done. Signed, sealed and only the final outcome isn't known.

I'm struggling to see how helping Florida can ever help Calgary. The only way really to "game" the deal is Calgary deliberately being worse to make sure their pick is in the top-10, so Montreal gets a (less attractive) Florida pick (and if Florida has a bad season as well, if both picks are top-10, Montreal gets the less attractive one). But Florida doing better doesn't help out Calgary.

Calgary sending assets to Florida could help Calgary be a worse team.... but Calgary can be worse without helping out Florida. At this point, changing Florida's draft ranking can never actually change a material result for Calgary. It can only change the value received by Montreal, but really, why should Calgary care at this point ?

I'm assuming Calgary's pick would be higher than Florida's if they nothing finish bottom 10. Calgary, on paper, should finish with a bottom-5 record next year. I can't see Florida being nearly that bad. And if they are bad, their pick will be around 10. If both finish bottom-10 then I believe Montreal gets the Flames' natural pick.

But as you said, Montreal doesn't get that pick if the Flames draft 1st. And there likely wouldn't be a ton of difference between the two picks otherwise. So maybe it's not a huge deal.

The likelihood though is the Habs getting a mid-to-late 1st from the Florida pick and Calgary just tanking.

I guess the ideal situation for the Habs would be Florida finishing bottom-10, the Flames drafting 1st overall in 2025 and the Montreal pick bumping to an unprotected 2026 (where the Flames could finish very low again). That is the disaster scenario for the Flames.