Speculation: Monahan forward most likely dealt first

[Trabdy2]

Looking at offensive production from individual players on playoff and bubble teams, Monahan has more points than all but 3 or 4 forwards on many of the teams. He's a center producing offense at a top-six rate, comes with a 56% faceoff win rate, and gives an option to tweak the PP or strengthen the second unit. Plus, he's easier to fit under the cap than almost every player like him that will be available.

I can see a 1st round pick as a return in the right market conditions, or a 2nd round + in return. I think this can be fathomed by looking at some benchmarks below from last TDL.

Last year:
Eller returned a 2nd and he's never broken 40 points in his career.
Bertuzzi returned a 1st + and his value might have been affected by injuries.
Engvall returned a 3rd, and he's Engvall.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

its just hilarious how you're treating a second round pick as some sort of desirable asset. "I'd hesitate to spend a second on him"

Either you want the player or you don't.

Asking price DOES matter though.

and every team poised for a significant playoff run has needs, and only so many assets. Yes, the question is "is Monahan worth a first" but it's also "if we blow a first on Monahan, how much does that hinder improvement in other areas?"

 

[Hunter368]

Asking price DOES matter though.

and every team poised for a significant playoff run has needs, and only so many assets. Yes, the question is "is Monahan worth a first" but it's also "if we blow a first on Monahan, how much does that hinder improvement in other areas?"

Agreed

Plus price is 100% relevant to if a team wants a player or not. Me I would give up a 3rd pick for Monahan, but never in a million years would I give up a 1st rd pick.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Agreed

Plus price is 100% relevant to if a team wants a player or not. Me I would give up a 3rd pick for Monahan, but never in a million years would I give up a 1st rd pick.

Ditto. As an Oilers fan he's a terrible fit for what we need. He'd be on PP2, sure, which plays about a minute a game, but we're already good on faceoffs, strong down the middle, and we're getting depth scoring. We could use more energy and physicality in the bottom six, and I'd absolutely love to add another top six right winger, but that ain't Monahan.

There's definitely levels of interest in every player, there's not a cut and dried "do you want him or no". Gun to my head like that, I'd just say no and move along, considering he's not a great fit and he's getting outproduced at even strength by guys like Foegele and McLeod.

 

[Hunter368]

Ditto. As an Oilers fan he's a terrible fit for what we need. He'd be on PP2, sure, which plays about a minute a game, but we're already good on faceoffs, strong down the middle, and we're getting depth scoring. We could use more energy and physicality in the bottom six, and I'd absolutely love to add another top six right winger, but that ain't Monahan.

There's definitely levels of interest in every player, there's not a cut and dried "do you want him or no". Gun to my head like that, I'd just say no and move along, considering he's not a great fit and he's getting outproduced at even strength by guys like Foegele and McLeod.

Jets similar albeit slightly different.

Monahan factoring defensive play is a lateral move to what we have already, which isn't worth doing. Plus Monahan is soft & fragile, Jets are living and breathing physical strong two way play by players. Jets love Names responsible two way play in the role, plus Names only has 6 points less then Monahan and Names gets way less TOI and less PP and Names is better 5vs5. So to replace Names the Jets would want someone just as good or better defensively and better offensively.......Monahan isn't either as a 2C on the Jets.

Could Monahan play in the Jets bottom six? Not ideally bc he's a really bad fit on the 3rd line, Lowry 3rd line of physical, very good defensively and checks other teams top lines all night......Monahan would be terrible in that role.

4th line, Monahan isn't worth getting to play on any teams 4th line.

I'm sure some team will take Monahan and play maybe a late 1st or 2nd rd pick+ for him, but the team would have to have a big hole in their team now or a team who missed out on better centers at the TDL are using Monahan as a plan B or plan C option only and hoping for the best (this might happen IMO).

After his current deal Monahan will want a fairly big raise and who would want to sign Monahan at 4-5 million for 3-4-5 years? Maybe Utah if they get a team next year will extend him, they might have a big need. Just a bad fit on the Jets as well.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Asking price DOES matter though.

and every team poised for a significant playoff run has needs, and only so many assets. Yes, the question is "is Monahan worth a first" but it's also "if we blow a first on Monahan, how much does that hinder improvement in other areas?"

Thats a fair point. The poster I was responding to was asking himself the question whether Monahan was worth a very late second. The value of a late second is almost nothing. So if you're not willing to give up that, you really aren't interested in the player.

 

[Miller Time]

Ditto. As an Oilers fan he's a terrible fit for what we need. He'd be on PP2, sure, which plays about a minute a game, but we're already good on faceoffs, strong down the middle, and we're getting depth scoring. We could use more energy and physicality in the bottom six, and I'd absolutely love to add another top six right winger, but that ain't Monahan.

There's definitely levels of interest in every player, there's not a cut and dried "do you want him or no". Gun to my head like that, I'd just say no and move along, considering he's not a great fit and he's getting outproduced at even strength by guys like Foegele and McLeod.

All of this makes perfect sense except the last line...

Oilers fans of all ppl should understand clearly what impact elite players have on the scoring outcomes of their peers.

Do you really think Foegele & McLeod hold up their 5v5 output playing on a league basement GF team? Or while facing opposing teams top or 2nd defensive pairings vs whatever a team has left after trying to stop Drain/McD & co.?

Monahan would be a poor fit in Edm for all the reasons you stated...
But there isn't a knowledgeable hockey mind following the NHL that would not view him as a significant roster upgrade on either Foegele or McLeod.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

All of this makes perfect sense except the last line...

Oilers fans of all ppl should understand clearly what impact elite players have on the scoring outcomes of their peers.

Do you really think Foegele & McLeod hold up their 5v5 output playing on a league basement GF team? Or while facing opposing teams top or 2nd defensive pairings vs whatever a team has left after trying to stop Drain/McD & co.?

Monahan would be a poor fit in Edm for all the reasons you stated...
But there isn't a knowledgeable hockey mind following the NHL that would not view him as a significant roster upgrade on either Foegele or McLeod.

McLeod is younger, faster, an elite PK option. He's been integral to our success. Foegele is younger, faster, more physical, and a strong PK option for us as well. They're both outproducing Monahan at even strength while playing four minutes less a game. He'd need to be an upgrade on a top six forward to make sense for us, and he is not that.

Besides, you're trying to compare them straight across. We have to look at it as "is it worth a first round pick to acquire what is at-best an infinitesimal upgrade" and no, it is not.

 

[Miller Time]

McLeod is younger, faster, an elite PK option. He's been integral to our success. Foegele is younger, faster, more physical, and a strong PK option for us as well. They're both outproducing Monahan at even strength while playing four minutes less a game. He'd need to be an upgrade on a top six forward to make sense for us, and he is not that.

Besides, you're trying to compare them straight across. We have to look at it as "is it worth a first round pick to acquire what is at-best an infinitesimal upgrade" and no, it is not.

?
No, you are the one trying to draw a comparison based on one metric... A metric that is heavily context rather than individual dependent.

As for the rest... Everything you just said about Foegele & McLeod is equally true of every player over 27 lol. Being younger & faster is great, as is being able to play PK... In a cap system just about every team assigns younger, faster, less skilled players to heavy pk duty.

Jake Evans is younger, faster and plays more PK than Monahan. Monahan is a better player, not even remotely close.

Like I said, fully agree that Monahan is not a fit for Edm. But that has nothing to do with wether or not he's a better player & more valuable asset than Foegele. make sense?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

?
No, you are the one trying to draw a comparison based on one metric... A metric that is heavily context rather than individual dependent.

As for the rest... Everything you just said about Foegele & McLeod is equally true of every player over 27 lol. Being younger & faster is great, as is being able to play PK... In a cap system just about every team assigns younger, faster, less skilled players to heavy pk duty.

Jake Evans is younger, faster and plays more PK than Monahan. Monahan is a better player, not even remotely close.

Like I said, fully agree that Monahan is not a fit for Edm. But that has nothing to do with wether or not he's a better player & more valuable asset than Foegele. make sense?

To Edmonton, Foegele and McLeod are certainly more valuable. We have team control over Mcleod for a good long while, and Foegele's 24 points at even strength would lead the Habs, and his production in relatively little icetime is extremely valuable for us.

I think you're a bit blinded in your quest to convince other fans Monahan is a hugely desirable asset. He is not. There's a good reason Calgary had to fork over a first to move him. They'll get a positive return for him, which is an achievement in itself, but I think anyone giving up a first for him will have some severe buyers remorse.

 

[Frank Drebin]

To Edmonton, Foegele and McLeod are certainly more valuable. We have team control over Mcleod for a good long while, and Foegele's 24 points at even strength would lead the Habs, and his production in relatively little icetime is extremely valuable for us.

I think you're a bit blinded in your quest to convince other fans Monahan is a hugely desirable asset. He is not. There's a good reason Calgary had to fork over a first to move him. They'll get a positive return for him, which is an achievement in itself, but I think anyone giving up a first for him will have some severe buyers remorse.

Calgary had to fork over a first because they were desperate to make room in a flat cap environment for Kadri who replaced Monahan long term, not because Monahan was a bad player. That 6.1 cap hit deal is long gone and Monahan has a 2m cap hit that can easily be dropped to 1. Huge difference.

 

[Miller Time]

To Edmonton, Foegele and McLeod are certainly more valuable. We have team control over Mcleod for a good long while, and Foegele's 24 points at even strength would lead the Habs, and his production in relatively little icetime is extremely valuable for us.

Perhaps you missed the part where I acknowledged that, not sure why you are arguing with yourself

I think you're a bit blinded in your quest to convince other fans Monahan is a hugely desirable asset. He is not. There's a good reason Calgary had to fork over a first to move him. They'll get a positive return for him, which is an achievement in itself, but I think anyone giving up a first for him will have some severe buyers remorse.

Sure. Let's ignore history.

FYI Monahan today is significantly more valuable as a hockey player than Kulak was when the oilers sent us a 2nd, 7th & prospect

Some of you really like to pretend that there has never been a trade deadline before

If anything, I want Monahan back in Montreal next year because he is/has been a quality asset for us... One largely underappreciated by many Habs fans, let alone posters from other fan bases who read a few stat lines and make up opinions completely devoid of context or historical relevance.

 

[Bender]

Looking at offensive production from individual players on playoff and bubble teams, Monahan has more points than all but 3 or 4 forwards on many of the teams. He's a center producing offense at a top-six rate, comes with a 56% faceoff win rate, and gives an option to tweak the PP or strengthen the second unit. Plus, he's easier to fit under the cap than almost every player like him that will be available.

I can see a 1st round pick as a return in the right market conditions, or a 2nd round + in return. I think this can be fathomed by looking at some benchmarks below from last TDL.

Last year:
Eller returned a 2nd and he's never broken 40 points in his career.
Bertuzzi returned a 1st + and his value might have been affected by injuries.
Engvall returned a 3rd, and he's Engvall.

Here let me help you :

Paul Gaustad once returned a 1st round pick so therefore - Monahan should return at least 3 or 4 first round picks based on that bad trade from before.

I think the formula is :
If there was a bad trade at some point in time, then take that bad trade as a base and go from there. The science checks out.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

Barf if Avs acquire Monahan, regardless of price

 

[Trabdy2]

Here let me help you :

Paul Gaustad once returned a 1st round pick so therefore - Monahan should return at least 3 or 4 first round picks based on that bad trade from before.

I think the formula is :
If there was a bad trade at some point in time, then take that bad trade as a base and go from there. The science checks out.

Would you say that Eller, Bertuzzi and Engvall were all "overpays" by the teams that acquired them? It's what the market pays.

If last year there were teams were willing to give up what they did for those players on a rental, I don't think it's unreasonable for the market to be in a position where Monahan costs a team a 1st or a 2nd+. It's not guaranteed, but it's can't be thought of as being extraordinary.

 

[Trabdy2]

I think you're a bit blinded in your quest to convince other fans Monahan is a hugely desirable asset. He is not. There's a good reason Calgary had to fork over a first to move him. They'll get a positive return for him, which is an achievement in itself, but I think anyone giving up a first for him will have some severe buyers remorse.

It is absolutely not uncommon for there to be a sense that some teams have buyer's remorse from TDL deals after the playoffs are over. It just takes interest from a couple (or more) teams to want the player and that drives the market price. We all know GM's aren't perfect and they make mistakes when risks are taken.

 

[Petes2424]

"Mid thirty" is close enough to 29? lol

Guy is a rental. Many rentals get late 1st or 2nd + prospect at the deadline.

Close enough because obviously, nobody is trading for Monahan to hand him a long term deal to retain him. That’s why teams will give 1st round picks for forwards at times. That and maybe for “elite” players who will be a core piece during their run.

That’s just not who Monahan is.

The good part is, we get to find out. I’ll be here to admit I’m wrong if that’s the case. Let’s see if you will be.

 

[Bender]

Would you say that Eller, Bertuzzi and Engvall were all "overpays" by the teams that acquired them? It's what the market pays.

If last year there were teams were willing to give up what they did for those players on a rental, I don't think it's unreasonable for the market to be in a position where Monahan costs a team a 1st or a 2nd+. It's not guaranteed, but it's can't be thought of as being extraordinary.

Yeah I would say so. A 2nd round pick for Lars Eller seemed excessive by 1 round... a 3rd would have been fine. There were many reasons why the Avs lost in the first round last year but having a guy improperly slotted as the #2C (Compher) certainly played a significant part. Eller was ok but was being asked to take too big of a role for where he was at in his career.

There surely will be a team that believes that Monahan gives them the correct depth at the C position to the point where they will give up potentially more than they want to - especially if the other options dry-up first.

From an Avs stand-point, I would prefer if they way overpaid for someone that absolutely and unequivocably fits what they need on their 2nd line. Acquire the right #2C and everything falls into place... trade for the wrong guy and you've still got the same hole with TWO #3C trying to fill it and neither able to do it.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Midway through the 1st period between the Islanders and the Habs. Monahan got 1 goals and 1 assist (both on the PP). These two points shouldn't count because they are scored on the PP.

 

[Andy]

Monahan is still a really good hockey player. Everyone acting like he isn't just hasn;t been watching.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Midway through the 1st period between the Islanders and the Habs. Monahan got 1 goals and 1 assist (both on the PP). These two points shouldn't count because they are scored on the PP.

I mean they count... But GMs certainly aren't going to give a shit about them.

 

[EveryDay]

Now 45th in points among center in the NHL but one poster from NJ is telling me that he's a 4th line player...

 

[HuGort]

Monahan will return a first but be about 30th in draft. Looking at the back end of the first round of this draft it's kind of underwhelming. This draft doesn't have depth of most drafts. Several cup contenders will give up first for Monahan. That pick will be a Tanner Howe type at best. A bottom 6 forward 5 years from now. What GM wouldn't solidify his cup chances for that.


Low cap hit, good on faceoffs, 56 points, there's too much there for Monahan.not to return a first.

 

[Frederixx]

He's been on fire lately. I think he could fetch a 1st+ now

I wouldn't be surprised if they try to re-sign him too.

 

[ottawa]

Can't wait to see the meltdown from the receiving teams fanbase and people eating crow...Hughes gets what he wants, don't underestimate him.