OT: MLB Thread XXII: The Mets Are Actually Undefeated In Wins
- Thread starter Bob Richards
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JimmyG89
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- May 1, 2010
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Same for me. Been watching him play for nearly half my life. Been a Met since I was just entering high school. That's a scary thought in itself.
darko
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- Feb 16, 2009
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Sonny Gray 11-9. Jacob deGrom 9-9. But lets evaluate pitchers based on wins.
Bob Richards
Mr. Mojo Risin'
Hunter Gathers
The Crown
Unfortunately, there's a disturbing precedent for him not winning: Craig Swann won ERA title in 1978 and didn't even finish in the top 10 in voting....he also had a winning record. Naturally, the Mets being putrid had an impact.
darko
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Definitely true, but Gaylord Perry won 20+ games that year, and wins were a thing that mattered way more back then than they do now. Swan didn't even finish top ten in voting! And there were five guys with better ERAs than Perry. But, there were also 13 guys separated by half a run of ERA. As it stands right now, deGrom is about seven-tenths of a run better than Nola, and only Nola and Scherzer have been within an entire run of deGrom.
deGrom has an easy lead in fWAR, passed Scherzer and moved into second in bWAR, and blew past Nola and is neck-and-neck with Scherzer in WARP. He's substantially ahead of those guys in FIP and xFIP, gives up fewer homers and fewer walks. Only Scherzer (and Corbin by the slimmest margins) have a better K/9.
Literally the only reason I could see voting for any of the other guys is because you really value win. Or, you care that their teams were nominally in playoff contention.
Interesting note in the 78 voting. Tekulve came in 5th with a 6-5 record as a reliever. How does Swann not make top 10 with a 9-6 record. On July 4th, he was 1-5. Just saw this: he had second-best WHIP and second-best hits per nine innings.
The ESPN CYA predictor has deGrom in 7th behind a reliever in 6th.
ESPN uses Bill James old model. There is also the Tanger Tiger model which has deGrom as the best pitcher in MLB.
Tanger model: (IP/2 - ER) + SO/10 + W
These are predictors of who will win, not necessarily a judgement of who should win. Bill James' model was a decent predictor 10+ years ago.
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Yeah, I edited my post to provide a bit more context. I think we had this conversation before.
Can't blame you on this one but that's on ESPN for not updating the model they use.
Machinehead
Fox Mafia Consigliere
The Astros are 100-57 with an xW-L of 106-51.
Imagine where they would be if Correa didn't suck this year.
Imagine where they would be if Correa didn't suck this year.
I don't know but I may have won my home run derby pool.
Happ better be starting the wild card game. I dont have the confidence in Tanaka who can be so jekyll and hyde.
Chris sale was throwing sub 90 MPH for most of the 1st inning today.
Either he's pulling the ultimate ruse or that sale worry meter just notched up to 9.5
Either he's pulling the ultimate ruse or that sale worry meter just notched up to 9.5
Unfortunately we have to worry about the WC Game first.
And for the love of all that is holy do not let it be Tanaka that starts it
This is flat out embarrassing by Tanaka after being handed a 3-0 lead.
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