You know, it's actually named for him? Nate Silver, when he was still just doing baseball, I guess liked the guy. So he named his projection system after the guy and came up with a reverse-acronym: Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.
OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXV
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SingnBluesOnBroadway
Retired
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Stanton/Sanchez/Voit will all regress, particularly Sanchez and Voit. Hard to tell where Andujar will regress to with only one season under his belt.
Paxton is the biggest question mark.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Here's the NL, just for reference. PECOTA likes the Mets!
NL East is going to be brutal.[TBODY] [/TBODY]
East Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG DRC+ FRAA DRA Washington Nationals
Hitters: Jan 13
Pitchers: Feb 889 73 735 657 .251 .323 .413 96 28.1 4.14 New York Mets
Hitters: Feb 6
Pitchers: Feb 488 74 691 628 .247 .317 .405 98 1.1 4.08 Philadelphia Phillies
Hitters: Feb 7
Pitchers: Feb 486 76 726 676 .251 .320 .410 94 -24.6 4.15 Atlanta Braves
Hitters: Feb 6
Pitchers: Feb 285 77 710 673 .251 .324 .408 99 -2.9 4.36 Miami Marlins
Hitters: Feb 7
Pitchers: Feb 467 95 611 743 .238 .301 .370 84 9.2 4.73 Central Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG DRC+ FRAA DRA Milwaukee Brewers
Hitters: Jan 14
Pitchers: Feb 488 74 734 672 .249 .319 .414 95 33.9 4.30 St. Louis Cardinals
Hitters: Feb 6
Pitchers: Feb 486 76 729 679 .247 .319 .410 100 5.5 4.26 Chicago Cubs
Hitters: Dec 18
Pitchers: Feb 481 81 744 741 .250 .328 .412 99 -12.6 4.38 Cincinnati Reds
Hitters: Feb 7
Pitchers: Feb 481 81 751 755 .260 .333 .426 98 -15.1 4.38 Pittsburgh Pirates
Hitters: Feb 4
Pitchers: Feb 481 81 687 689 .249 .311 .397 89 -1.7 4.26 West Updated W L RS RA AVG OBP SLG DRC+ FRAA DRA Los Angeles Dodgers
Hitters: Feb 5
Pitchers: Feb 494 68 760 636 .250 .328 .422 101 18.9 4.03 Colorado Rockies
Hitters: Feb 5
Pitchers: Feb 286 76 765 718 .265 .327 .452 100 2.6 4.32 Arizona D-backs
Hitters: Feb 6
Pitchers: Feb 582 80 688 680 .244 .311 .405 90 -6.5 4.29 San Diego Padres
Hitters: Feb 4
Pitchers: Feb 175 87 683 742 .238 .303 .395 86 3.9 4.49 San Francisco Giants
Hitters: Feb 5
Pitchers: Feb 573 89 655 729 .242 .308 .387 88 6.4 4.61
Does this system take into account the fact that when somebody wins, somebody loses, and that there's limited possibilities on how many teams can crack .500?
I could be completely wrong because I haven't done any of the math, but at first glance, this looks like way too many teams winning too many games.
It was put together by Nate Silver, originally, so I would assume all the bases are covered in terms of simple things like teams finishing above .500. The PECOTA stuff has been published since the early-2000s and was one of the pioneering predictive models in baseball. The basically project the depth charts of each team (which you can see if you click on the team) and then calculate each player's WARP, which is their WAR. And from their they build out team projections, I think. Some of the stuff you can find on its page: BP Depth Charts
But also, their formula is kept a secret. Wikipedia of all places has a decent primer on the things that go into it. PECOTA - Wikipedia
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
They had the red sox down for 89 wins. Red Sox can be flukey winners or losers but I guess the Mets are just consistently losers.
Also, I just quickly added up the win totals for all teams and came up with 2436. It should, of course, come out to 2430. I don't know if that's due to rounding on their part, or me entering things into the calculator wrong, or what, but it's accurate for all reasonable purposes.
Yeah I guess if you play 1 full season that's what you're going to do every year.
Bob Richards
Mr. Mojo Risin'
Literally paid $6 for a Mets ticket the other year just because Tommy Milone was starting.
Bob Richards
Mr. Mojo Risin'
Well he isn't going to hit 50+ homers every year, that I agree with.
He's mashed since becoming a regular, I don't see any reason to expect that to cease other than the fact that hes a Yankee in your eyes.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Yeah I was not saying he might suck this year. But it's hard to peg him as a perennial 170+ OPS+ player with just 1 full year under his belt.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Same. I hope to be able to go out to Citi a few times. Might try to get my friend to get me good tickets through her MLB connections.
darko
Registered User
- Feb 16, 2009
- 70,272
- 7,803
darko
Registered User
- Feb 16, 2009
- 70,272
- 7,803
darko
Registered User
- Feb 16, 2009
- 70,272
- 7,803
They should have paid me 6 dollars for him to go.
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
I can understand Voit, but how in the world do you think Stanton and especially Sanchez will regress? Lol...
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
Its wild that some teams are reporting on Wednesday and Bryce and Manny dont have a team yet. No new rumors today. No real indication of where they are going.
Think the Yanks should offer a 4 year $120 million deal to Harper with opt outs and opt ins for additional years based on production.
Think the Yanks should offer a 4 year $120 million deal to Harper with opt outs and opt ins for additional years based on production.
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