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OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXV

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RGY said:
Its wild that some teams are reporting on Wednesday and Bryce and Manny dont have a team yet. No new rumors today. No real indication of where they are going.

Think the Yanks should offer a 4 year $120 million deal to Harper with opt outs and opt ins for additional years based on production.
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Why would he accept 4/120?
 
darko said:
Why would he accept 4/120?
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Because he wants to be a Yankee, it gets him $30 million per year, and I dont think he has a $300 million offer anymore. The 4/120 is the foundation. He can have opt outs after years 2 and 3. But he can also have opt in’s for additional years based on performance incentives, with those years being at $30 million aav.

The shorter term deals have been heavily discussed by the baseball analysts on the networks.
 
RGY said:
Because he wants to be a Yankee, it gets him $30 million per year, and I dont think he has a $300 million offer anymore. The 4/120 is the foundation. He can have opt outs after years 2 and 3. But he can also have opt in’s for additional years based on performance incentives, with those years being at $30 million aav.

The shorter term deals have been heavily discussed by the baseball analysts on the networks.
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He'll either take 7-8 year deal from someone with opt outs or 1 year deal and try again in 12 months time. 4/120 is kinda middle of nowhere type of contract IMO.
 
darko said:
Regression to me means getting worse. Then again Irish are all backwards and **** :)
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I'd like the Mets to try to snag Jose Lopez from Cincy now that he's been DFA. He used to be considered a good prospect until last season and his year wasn't even bad. He'd be a nice guy to bring in and work with and hope you can get back on track. Just 25. I know it seems like scraping the bottom of the barrel, but if they're not going to get a guy like Gio Gonzalez they need to stock up on other guys who can start, given the fragile status of the rotation.
 
darko said:
He'll either take 7-8 year deal from someone with opt outs or 1 year deal and try again in 12 months time. 4/120 is kinda middle of nowhere type of contract IMO.
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I mean thats a fair opinion darko.

I think the 1 year deal thing is scary though. What if he has to go through this again?

I think a 7-8 year deal would be something like $22-$25 million AAV. Is that better than having 4/$120? Say he gets 7 years @ $24 AAV...thats $168 million. Would it make more sense for him to take a 4/$120 with opt-in’s for 1-2 additional years based on performance incentives that gets him potentially more money and in a place he absolutely wants to play. I think money factor edges out the place, but I also dont think it is a large discrepancy. I think the place is important and that is why neither Machado and Harper sound close to signing. Even if the opt-in’s were a regression down to $25 million AAV, he is still at $170 million after 6 years. Maybe the contract as 1-2 years more of opt-in’s making it an 8 year contract.

The Yankees I fully believe could move salary going into year 3 of his contract if they need to. They could eat some, not a ton, but some of Stanton’s money. They have Ellsbury coming off the books after this year? Next?. Gardner and CC after this year. Is Hicks a free agent after this season? Do they have arbitration rights (might be mixing that up with hockey), but they could trade him for prospects especially if he inflates his numbers this year. Package him for a young cost controlled arm. Tanaka’s money will be coming off the books in 1-2 years. We have a ton of young arms in the system, especially from that 2017 draft.
 
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RGY said:
The Yankees I fully believe could move salary going into year 3 of his contract if they need to. They could eat some, not a ton, but some of Stanton’s money. They have Ellsbury coming off the books after this year? Next?. Gardner and CC after this year. Is Hicks a free agent after this season? Do they have arbitration rights (might be mixing that up with hockey), but they could trade him for prospects especially if he inflates his numbers this year. Package him for a young cost controlled arm. Tanaka’s money will be coming off the books in 1-2 years. We have a ton of young arms in the system, especially from that 2017 draft.
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Severino is already in arbitration and judge is arbitration eligible next season. Most of the money coming off the books is presumably going to those guys.
 
sbjnyc said:
Severino is already in arbitration and judge is arbitration eligible next season. Most of the money coming off the books is presumably going to those guys.
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Over the next two years:

Ellsbury - $21.14 off after 2020 season
Tanaka - $23 off after 2020 season
LeMahieu - $12 off after 2020 season
CC Sabathia - $8 off after 2019 season
Gardner - $7.5 off after 2019 season

For 2019:

Judge is in Pre-Arb 3
Sanchez is in Pre-Arb 3
Severino is in Arb 1

So over two years that is $71.64 million coming off the books. Another $7.12 if you factor in Betances. Of course they could re-sign him and he obviously gets a raise but how much more? Look at what Britton and Ottavino just got. They could bring back Tanaka, but he will be age 31/32, how much is he getting? Probably a reduction. Or they go younger.

They are over the luxury tax right now. They can bring in Harper and make the money work over the next few years to get back down.

Its silly to make it seem impossible when it very much is possible.
 
RGY said:
I mean thats a fair opinion darko.

I think the 1 year deal thing is scary though. What if he has to go through this again?

I think a 7-8 year deal would be something like $22-$25 million AAV. Is that better than having 4/$120? Say he gets 7 years @ $24 AAV...thats $168 million. Would it make more sense for him to take a 4/$120 with opt-in’s for 1-2 additional years based on performance incentives that gets him potentially more money and in a place he absolutely wants to play. I think money factor edges out the place, but I also dont think it is a large discrepancy. I think the place is important and that is why neither Machado and Harper sound close to signing. Even if the opt-in’s were a regression down to $25 million AAV, he is still at $170 million after 6 years. Maybe the contract as 1-2 years more of opt-in’s making it an 8 year contract.

The Yankees I fully believe could move salary going into year 3 of his contract if they need to. They could eat some, not a ton, but some of Stanton’s money. They have Ellsbury coming off the books after this year? Next?. Gardner and CC after this year. Is Hicks a free agent after this season? Do they have arbitration rights (might be mixing that up with hockey), but they could trade him for prospects especially if he inflates his numbers this year. Package him for a young cost controlled arm. Tanaka’s money will be coming off the books in 1-2 years. We have a ton of young arms in the system, especially from that 2017 draft.
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Whatever longterm contracts Harper/Machado get you can bet your house on having an opt out.
 
Cassano said:
Do you think there is still a chance they trade him? Especially if he makes his intentions know to test FA?
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They still have this year and next, so, there doesn't necessarily need to be any urgency unless deGrom says "Sign me this Spring or I'll test the waters after 2020." That scenario seems unlikely to me. He has said he wants to sign and has indicated frustration only that the Mets haven't been more aggressive in trying to get something done. His agent until a few months ago is now the team's GM, so I'm sure he has a pretty good read on what deGrom wants in a deal.

The Mets, for better or worse, have also maneuvered themselves into "win now" territory, so barring some sort of complete collapse that would cause BVW to want to tear it all down, it seems hard for me to fathom them trading him. But you never know.
 
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RGY said:
Over the next two years:

Ellsbury - $21.14 off after 2020 season
Tanaka - $23 off after 2020 season
LeMahieu - $12 off after 2020 season
CC Sabathia - $8 off after 2019 season
Gardner - $7.5 off after 2019 season

For 2019:

Judge is in Pre-Arb 3
Sanchez is in Pre-Arb 3
Severino is in Arb 1

So over two years that is $71.64 million coming off the books. Another $7.12 if you factor in Betances. Of course they could re-sign him and he obviously gets a raise but how much more? Look at what Britton and Ottavino just got. They could bring back Tanaka, but he will be age 31/32, how much is he getting? Probably a reduction. Or they go younger.

They are over the luxury tax right now. They can bring in Harper and make the money work over the next few years to get back down.

Its silly to make it seem impossible when it very much is possible.
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I'm not saying it's not but you said 3 years. Betts got $20 million in arb 2 and it's fair to say Judge will get at least that much and Sev will probably get around $15 million (depending on how he does of course but that's what Scherzer got 5 years ago). Adding Machado or Harper at $30 AAV brings you to $65 million. Then you have to replace the guys that are coming off the books. I doubt they'll all be making major league minimum.
 
nyr2k2 said:
That one makes me nervous. He'll be 31 soon. Not exactly old, but how many years does he want? I'll do five, easy. Does he want six or seven? Eight? Then it gets tough.
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Cassano said:
Do you think there is still a chance they trade him? Especially if he makes his intentions know to test FA?
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Watch him self impose innings limits within the next two for preservation.

I wonder how many pallbearers it would take to bury an entire baseball stadium.
 
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JimmyG89 said:
Just one:

anigif_enhanced-buzz-17899-1362544875-4.gif
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When Paul Bearer debuted I was still fairly young. I had no idea what a pallbearer was, so I just thought he was a funeral guy with a weird name. Once I learned the pun, I felt like a dolt. Also thought it was cool he was an actual mortician.

Anyway, always sad when you look these guys up and see they're literally all dead. I actually believe half of the guys in WWE right now are animated corpses of guys I watched 20-30 years ago.
 
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Machinehead said:
What would we do with Harper?
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What would we do with Machado and another righty bat?

DJ Lemahieu is a great ballplayer. Very very good contact hitter. Great fielder. He already doesnt have a spot and we are paying him $12 million per. Of course we can rotate him around the infield but that becomes more difficult if you add Machado.

Cant assume Andujar can simply play 1B either. Dont know if he has the athletic build for the position to be quite honest.

Plus Voit/Bird become non existent, and all value is diminished if you wanted to trade 1 or both. They really need Bird to be a comeback player of the year essentially. They need that lefty bat badly.

Harper can go to LF. Frazier rotates in. Gardner gets 30-40 starts rotating in. Frazier can get some starts in CF. So could Harper against less concerning matchups.
 
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