OT: MLB Discussion Thread: Part XXIV
- Thread starter Krams
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I really wish the Mets would go ahead and over-pay another reliever now, instead of having to give up prospects to acquire one at the deadline if they're in the race. I have zero faith in Gsellman (hope he proves me wrong) and while I have hopes for guys like Bashlor and Zamora, the rest of the stuff generally sucks.
SA16
Sixstring
Machinehead
HFNYR MVP
He can still WAR it up if he's healthy and we need an infielder.
Would rather Jed Lowrie.
Brooklyn Rangers Fan
Change is good.
keith hernandez
Registered User
Andrew Miller is perfect for the Mets bullpen. They need a big lefty but, oh I forgot... the wilpons. Why did my father make me a met fan.
keith hernandez
Registered User
SA16
Sixstring
The Mets don't need someone the quality of Andrew Miller. They just need a good lefty specialist. They don't need someone who can be used in all situations.
Depending on what Ollie Perez wants he could be a legitimate option. My concern with him is that relievers are volatile in general and he seems like s strong candidate to fall apart. It also didn't end well for him here, so no guarantee he'd want to come back.
I'd suggest finding another #5 and letting Vargas pitch in relief but I don't think he has strong splits. But, that could be an option. Although Vargas pitched fine in the second half so he may yet be a decent 5.
I'd suggest finding another #5 and letting Vargas pitch in relief but I don't think he has strong splits. But, that could be an option. Although Vargas pitched fine in the second half so he may yet be a decent 5.
I dont know where you saw this...but certainly would not be a terrible idea on the league minimum. IF he can stay healthy then he is a great add.
That post does not really tell the whole story. It is actually a false narrative. The luxury tax is not static but escalates every year they are over the threshold. The post does not mention that, as that would muddy the waters somewhat. If the Red Sox stayed at the same exact pay level, they will pay more and more each and every year. The post also does not address future contracts. For example, JD Martinez has an out clause after next year, I believe. For argument's sake, let's say he opts out and winds up resigning for $100m. Except that the cost to the 'Sox would not be $100m, it would be something like $130m.
Now try to imagine what they would be paying if they had 3 $300m players on the roster.
Right here. Should we discuss the cost of multi-year escalators and what that does to your ability to sign anyone?
I provided an example upthread where if at the threshold you sign 2 players for $25X5 those contracts are essentially $35X5 (ie a 40% tax). Hard to say anything about contracts much longer term than that since who knows what the next CBA will look like. but each 5+ year player will have likely have a 40% tax once at the threshhold but they may be able to squeeze in a contract before triggering the tax. The tax only works at the margins. The Sox, who are already over will pay 40% on any 5+ year contract they sign now so they are at a competitive disadvantage when negotiating for FAs.
Exactly right. Which is why I am amazed when people simply state "they can afford it". The competitive disadvantage that the Yankees would be putting themselves in by having to spend $1.5 on the dollar is HUGE.
One Winged Angel
You Can't Escape
What you're forgetting is luxury tax is AAV, just like salary cap is in hockey. It goes by AAV, not total amount of contract. The Yankees sit about $30 million below. So if they go over this year, they won't be going over by a lot. Then salary comes off the books next season and they can always move salary if necessary.
3-4 or so years down the road is when you will have to worry about Judge, Sanchez, Severino getting big paydays. It's nothing right now.
No, I understand all that. But if they sign Machado or Harper, there goes the $30m. That will immediately have an impact on signing let's say Betances. Or anyone else that may come into the market. Like a pitcher that they need.
One Winged Angel
You Can't Escape
Having an impact? This team prints money. They don't have to worry about that. Betances and his what $10 million dollar salary? If the Red Sox went over by $40.85 million and pay just under $12 million this year, that's what about 3 million for every $10 million they go over? That's nothing.
That's Hal being cheap. George wouldn't have cared. Sorry, but there's literally no other way you can put it and yes I understand that it keeps going up, that's why I said salaries will come off the books and you can move salaries.
Remember the luxury tax also affects your draft position. The Sox were slotted to pick 33rd. Now they pick 43rd. Not a huge difference. They also lose like $500k in pool money as a result. Again, not a huge thing. They can add up, though. Still, unless you're getting hit with like a $40M luxury tax bill each year, I don't think it really should matter for the true big-spenders out there. And even when the tax gets up high, all you need to do is get under one year and you reset to the lowest level of penalties.
The luxury tax could be killer but I think most teams are smart enough to know how to get around big bills. It's not the NBA's tax. It's actually kind of a joke since there are really only maybe 5 teams that will ever have to worry about it, and the Yankees might not even be one of them anymore.
The luxury tax could be killer but I think most teams are smart enough to know how to get around big bills. It's not the NBA's tax. It's actually kind of a joke since there are really only maybe 5 teams that will ever have to worry about it, and the Yankees might not even be one of them anymore.
That's not how it works. The tax works at the margin so it doesn't affect existing contracts, only new contracts that put you over the threshhold. JD Martinez contract is 5 years $110 million. When you include the luxury tax, it is $22 million*(1.225+1.3+1.4+1.5+1.5)~$152 million*, or about a $42 million tax on that particular contract. A team not paying a luxury tax could have offered him $30 million for the same term and paid less money than the Sox.
* This is what understand the tax rates to be currently.
Are you purposely ignoring what is happening? ALL new contracts will get affected. Take a look at what sbjnyc just outlined for you when it comes to Martinez. And that is just ONE such contract. The tax gets worse each and every year. Couple that with worse draft position and loss of international pool money and there are VERY good reasons not to go over the tax. Let's say that they sign Betances to a 5 year, $50m deal. Over 5 years that comes out to be $69.25m, NOT $50. So you just spent $20m more. Now take it into account for a $300m contract
I think the bottom line is the Yankees can afford to go over. They will have about $16-$20 million coming off the books next year after CC retires and Gardners is let go. Ellsbury will either be moved or they will wait out the deal. By that time, they will have money available to re-sign Judge, Sanchez, Severino. They will have team control on others like Torres and Andujar. Also, they will probably let Tanaka walk in 2-3 years and hopefully have a cheaper replacement by then...they drafted pitchers with 10 out of their first 11 picks, or something like that in the 2017 draft. 2-3 years from now will be 4-5 years removed from that draft. Hopefully you will have a new wave of arms, for SP and RP. By then a deal you hand to say Andrew Miller or Zach Britton is probably expiring or about to.
I mean youre worrying about a ton of factors that may or may not happen. They can afford to go over the luxury tax by $10-$15 million this year and find ways to shed later on. The team DOES print money. They are incredibly profitable. They will continue to be with a very competitive team. And from what I have read and listened to, the biggest issue for management was paying a luxury tax over the last several years which meant helping out 24-27 teams in the league via that tax while their own roster was a waste. They werent winning squat AND they were paying other teams to do so. Couple that with getting under to reset for this free agent class.
Just like they shouldnt prospect hug for the right deal, they should penny pinch either. This isnt the time. The window is open now. And it is open while all their homegrowns are playing for nothing and are 21-26 years old
I mean youre worrying about a ton of factors that may or may not happen. They can afford to go over the luxury tax by $10-$15 million this year and find ways to shed later on. The team DOES print money. They are incredibly profitable. They will continue to be with a very competitive team. And from what I have read and listened to, the biggest issue for management was paying a luxury tax over the last several years which meant helping out 24-27 teams in the league via that tax while their own roster was a waste. They werent winning squat AND they were paying other teams to do so. Couple that with getting under to reset for this free agent class.
Just like they shouldnt prospect hug for the right deal, they should penny pinch either. This isnt the time. The window is open now. And it is open while all their homegrowns are playing for nothing and are 21-26 years old
One Winged Angel
You Can't Escape
Ok, so even with that said, you can still move salary. You're acting like salary cannot be moved. I've explained that several times. Yes, you pay more. But you're getting a better player.
If what the team has to worry about is money, then they shouldn't be worrying about it. The margin of profit that this team brings in EVERY SEASON IS ASTRONOMICAL. Worse draft position happens with winning. Losing international pool money sucks, but if you have the talent to assemble a juggernaut, why are you worrying about players 5+ years down the road when the core of this team is well under 30 years old?
Recently, moving salary has not been that easy. Otherwise, why is Ellsbury still on the team? You may move a salary, but often you need to take one back. Aside from a complete dump like Stanton. But there are few teams that can afford to do that. It is not a question of paying more. It is a question of how much more you paying. When the cost of a $100m contract becomes $150, you are officially at a competitive disadvantage directly due to poor business decisions.
There is profit, but when the tax implications get worse and worse every year, you profit margin shrinks. When you are paying more than anyone else has to pay, have a drafting position that is much worse and have less money to spend internationally than other teams, you compromise your ability to be a successful team.
It's not a question whether they can afford the tax - of course they can - but it can put them at a real disadvantage when signing long term contracts (again, the CBA may change in a few years ). But let's assume the CBA stays the same wrt to the tax. If the Yanks offer Machado $30X10 (the presumed asking price) then the after tax total would be $433 million or about 44% unless they shed payroll (but if they can afford the tax why would they). That's a large gap that allows a non-luxury tax team (say the Mets
) to offer much more than the Yanks while paying less. The Yanks would have to overpay to get Machado in that case and that overpayment would get taxed as well.- Status
