Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[ToneDog]

Lol. Dude. You did not seriously just compare losing in game 7 of the 1st round to losing in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals did you????

Just another of the many excuses for the core they defend. Yeah if we can't win the SC, may as well lose in round #1, not make the playoffs, or lose all 82 games. I wonder how Sens and Habs fans feel about being losers equal to the Oilers.

 

[ruaware41]

What's your evidence that most Leafs fans agree with you? I am not even sure if most Leaf fans on this board agree with you and even if they did, that's still a very small chunk of the fanbase? And just who are you including as a Leafs fan? My cousin's husband self-identifies as a Leafs fan, and he pretty much only watches them in the playoffs and last year, when I mentioned to him about Dubas being fired, he had no clue who I was talking about. But if you asked him what NHL team he cheered for, he'd say the Leafs.

That being said, you could be right that most Leafs agree with you, I don't know. I'm just not terribly fond of the arrogance shown by people who assume things to be true without appropriate evidence.

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Make it make sense

 

[Nineteen67]

Has Pelley been in charge for the last 60 years, or is he only talking about since he's been here?

Just a couple of months, he did the new guy speech, and now it looks like he may be settling in like the rest of them have.

 

[Nineteen67]

View attachment 894973

I suggested that team out East prior to the draft. They could afford the signing bonus, get a young D or Caufield and the number 5 pick….and then draft Tij Iginla.

I wonder if they talked.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Just a couple of months, he did the new guy speech, and now it looks like he may be settling in like the rest of them have.

And what changes did you expect to see in those couple of months?

 

[Nineteen67]

And what changes did you expect to see in those couple of months?

I was hoping they’d move one of the core like they hinted at and try to build a winner

My expectations are very low and I expect they’ll continue to be the worst sports franchise in US/Can sports.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Lol. Dude. You did not seriously just compare losing in game 7 of the 1st round to losing in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals did you????

Eight team lose in the first round, but only one loses in the finals, so the first round must be tougher, right?

 

[notDatsyuk]

I was hoping they’d move one of the core like they hinted at and try to build a winner

My expectations are very low and I expect they’ll continue to be the worst sports franchise in US/Can sports.

I was hoping they would move one of the core too, but I think it's pretty naive to expect them to be able to quickly trade an overpaid player with a full NMC who wants to stay here.

A reasonable expectation would be that at least one is gone by this time next year.

 

[Nineteen67]

I was hoping they would move one of the core too, but I think it's pretty naive to expect them to be able to quickly trade an overpaid player with a full NMC who wants to stay here.

A reasonable expectation would be that at least one is gone by this time next year.

No one thinks it’s easy to fix. We don’t know what they’ve tried, what conversations they’ve had, etc., but as of now they’re going run it back and hope that the new coaches can convince this high priced core to put in a playoff level effort.

When the team was struggling throughout the season they didn’t think Berube was the answer, but now they do? He was available, Keefe was on the exact same course as previous years and they didnt make the change. What were they thinking then?

If it fails again….what then?

 

[Captain Crunch]

They don't because they don't have as many points...

Compare how many points he gets in the 1st 4 games of a series to how many he gets in games 5-7.

 

[Captain Crunch]

.. poster @Hellcat said that 2nd place is a first place loser. Indicating a finals appearance means as much as no playoff appearance at all.

Nearly 60 years since a finals appearance ...but it wouldn't matter if the Leafs didn't win the cup. It would be like finishing 32nd.

Strongly disagree with that statement! The only exception would be a team who maybe had not been in the playoffs for awhile, got in and lost in the finals, then returned to being a bubble team.

 

[notbias]

Compare how many points he gets in the 1st 4 games of a series to how many he gets in games 5-7.

Tavares does better than Matthews in games 5-7, is it Tavares > Matthews?

Goalpost shifting regardless, the original discussion was points, I am bored of people isolating specific stats to show that Marner is terrible because you ignore games 1-4 where he is elite.

But if you want to isolate stats, here is a good one, we can assume if games 5-7 are tight checking and hard to score in, game 7 is the pinnacle of that, so would you be prepared to say Marner > Kucherov because Kucherov has 0 game 7 points and Marner has more?

 

[notDatsyuk]

No one thinks it’s easy to fix. We don’t know what they’ve tried, what conversations they’ve had, etc., but as of now they’re going run it back and hope that the new coaches can convince this high priced core to put in a playoff level effort.

When the team was struggling throughout the season they didn’t think Berube was the answer, but now they do? He was available, Keefe was on the exact same course as previous years and they didnt make the change. What were they thinking then?

If it fails again….what then?

If you weren't expecting them to be able to move one of the core, why are you so upset that they didn't?

I agree that they haven't succeeded, but I also agree that we don't know what or how much they have tried.

While I don't necessarily agree, I understand that Tre prefers to make big changes in the off-season, so I can somewhat see not bringing Berube in, even though I would have been as happy as anyone to see Keefe go. At the same time, I don't think you should include not firing Keefe mid-season on Pelley's resume.

If, after next summer, the core four are all still here (and we haven't won at least two rounds), we can legitimately complain.

 

[Sypher04]

I meant fans who I know or talk to specifically. Tbh I don’t know any Leaf’s fan personally who are not on board with a change in the core.

I'd say there's a significant difference between being on board with a change in the core and being hellbent on everything be a waste of time if they don't make one, which is how a lot of people act around here.

 

[Captain Crunch]

Tavares does better than Matthews in games 5-7, is it Tavares > Matthews?

Goalpost shifting regardless, the original discussion was points, I am bored of people isolating specific stats to show that Marner is terrible because you ignore games 1-4 where he is elite.

But if you want to isolate stats, here is a good one, we can assume if games 5-7 are tight checking and hard to score in, game 7 is the pinnacle of that, so would you be prepared to say Marner > Kucherov because Kucherov has 0 game 7 points and Marner has more?

No, I'm not saying that at all. All of this is on the core in terms of how their scoring drops off the longer a series goes on. This is not an ISOLATED stat. This has been the theme through all/most of their playoff series.

And I am not going to bother with their contracts and how that has affected the team's weaknesses elsewhere, unlike in Tampa Bay and their players' contracts.

 

[Mess]

Correcting Leafs Salary Cap.

In order to bring Marner salary back to reality and using Nylander (very similar comparable) as well as Market Comparable Kucherov ($9.5 mil), M. Tkachuk ($9.5 mil) M. Rantanen ($9.5 mil) etc,

Marner went straight from ELC to UFA contract and skipped his 2nd RFA contract unlike Willy who went ELC --> RFA (@$7 mil) to UFA ($11.5 mil) .

So to market correct Marner's next contract its value should be 8 years @ $9.0 mil per (recovering lost RFA years & market correcting) should be Leafs offer to stay.

William Nylander

Term: 6 yrs - Value: $45.09M (cap hit $7.51M)
Term: 8 yrs - Value : $92.00M (cap hit $11.50M)

Total 14 years @ Value : $137.09 mil total (average AAV / 14 years) = $9.792 mil

Mitch Marner

Term : 6 yrs - Value : $65.4M (cap hit $10.90M)
Term : 8 yrs - Value : $72.0 M (cap hit $9.0M)

Total 14 years @ Value : $137.4 mil total (average AAV / 14 years) = $9.814 mil

Neither Marner nor Nylander as Wingers are worth double digit (>$10 mil AAV), but high 9's on average would return value in a Salary Cap World.

 

[Sypher04]

Correcting Leafs Salary Cap.

In order to bring Marner salary back to reality and using Nylander (very similar comparable) as well as Market Comparable Kucherov ($9.5 mil), M. Tkachuk ($9.5 mil) M. Rantanen ($9.5 mil) etc,

Marner went straight from ELC to UFA contract and skipped his 2nd RFA contract unlike Willy who went ELC --> RFA (@$7 mil) to UFA ($11.5 mil) .

So to market correct Marner's next contract its value should be 8 years @ $9.0 mil per (recovering lost RFA years & market correcting) should be Leafs offer to stay.

William Nylander

Term: 6 yrs - Value: $45.09M (cap hit $7.51M)
Term: 8 yrs - Value : $92.00M (cap hit $11.50M)

Total 14 years @ Value : $137.09 mil total (average AAV / 14 years) = $9.792 mil

Mitch Marner

Term : 6 yrs - Value : $65.4M (cap hit $10.90M)
Term : 8 yrs - Value : $72.0 M (cap hit $9.0M)

Total 14 years @ Value : $137.4 mil total (average AAV / 14 years) = $9.814 mil

Neither Marner nor Nylander as Wingers are worth double digit (>$10 mil AAV), but high 9's on average would return value in a Salary Cap World.

There is no scenario where Marner accepts a nearly 2 million dollar per year paycut for 8 years with a rapidly rising salary cap.

If Marner cares about rebuilding his brand/reputation/popularity in this city (and he may not) then he should accept the same 8 years, 11.5M Nylander got, but it's just dreaming imo to think he will take less.

 

[keonsbitterness]

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Make it make sense

No one can. Every few months he posts a comment like that.

 

[Arzak]

wow he is still here

No takers at all. Not even Arizona, a rumour Montreal .This is getting better and better. You can not sell him with 100% retention. Untradeable

 

[notDatsyuk]

I'd say there's a significant difference between being on board with a change in the core and being hellbent on everything be a waste of time if they don't make one, which is how a lot of people act around here.

Absolutely - make what changes you can now to improve the team, preparatory to making changes to the core as soon as possible, which may not be until next summer.

 

[ACC1224]

I'd say there's a significant difference between being on board with a change in the core and being hellbent on everything be a waste of time if they don't make one, which is how a lot of people act around here.

Still seems like overpaying Nylander instead of moving him was a big missed opportunity for a core correction.
Hopefully I'm wrong here and not Treliving.

 

[Fogelhund]

wow he is still here

No takers at all. Not even Arizona, a rumour Montreal .This is getting better and better. You can not sell him with 100% retention. Untradeable

Weird and incorrect take.

 

[notbias]

No, I'm not saying that at all. All of this is on the core in terms of how their scoring drops off the longer a series goes on. This is not an ISOLATED stat. This has been the theme through all/most of their playoff series.

And I am not going to bother with their contracts and how that has affected the team's weaknesses elsewhere, unlike in Tampa Bay and their players' contracts.

Well, you brought up the games 1-4 vs games 5-7 like it is this important point and it trumps overall points or play, so I just want to know your opinion.

Is Tavares better than Mattews because he performs better in games 5-7?

It's pretty simple, you brought it up to show how bad Marner was, so this would imply that the same rules apply to others.

It seems like the games 5-7 reference happens very quickly with Marner, but the argument gets quiet or deflected when other examples are brought up, no clue why.

 

[ULF_55]

Looks like we’re back to it’s all Marners fault again. Too many mixed messages.
Love to see the “it’s all his fault crew” go at it with the “It’s all of their fault but he’s the only one unsigned ” crew go at it.

Well, we know those "junior hockey moves" don't work in the NHL ...

 

[ULF_55]

Still seems like overpaying Nylander instead of moving him was a big missed opportunity for a core correction.
Hopefully I'm wrong here and not Treliving.

I'm curious is marner goes 8?

To me if he pulls a Matthews we know he isn't putting the team first.

Matthews deal was all about the next deal.