Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[arso40]

I think what they are saying is with Matthews and Marner split, FLA will need to decide who Barkov will match and the other gets the lessor player.

nothing to decide barkov is definitely following matthews around not marner

 

[Zybalto]

Seems like you missed the point. My point is, analyzing numbers with or without this or that player is a pointless exercise. If you don't agree then start by analyzing our record when Rielly is not in the lineup and explaining the results.

I just think your point is a silly point is all.

There are all sorts of reasons to win games, especially when you have one of the best teams in the league.

I was focused on the PP without Marner which isnt just failing to score but also failing to generate chances/shots whenever he is absent. Any objective person would look at the PP as of late and say the main reason is a lack of Marner.

I mean, jeez, the Leafs have scored 40 goals with him on the PP this season and only 12 without him and he's missed 12 games.

Ignore that if you want to but I think he's REALLY important to the PP.

 

[ACC1224]

I just think your point is a silly point is all.

There are all sorts of reasons to win games, especially when you have one of the best teams in the league.

I was focused on the PP without Marner which isnt just failing to score but also failing to generate chances/shots whenever he is absent. Any objective person would look at the PP as of late and say the main reason is a lack of Marner.

I mean, jeez, the Leafs have scored 40 goals with him on the PP this season and only 12 without him and he's missed 12 games.

Ignore that if you want to but I think he's REALLY important to the PP.

We have 'silly' in abundance in this thread.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I just think your point is a silly point is all.

There are all sorts of reasons to win games, especially when you have one of the best teams in the league.

I was focused on the PP without Marner which isnt just failing to score but also failing to generate chances/shots whenever he is absent. Any objective person would look at the PP as of late and say the main reason is a lack of Marner.

I mean, jeez, the Leafs have scored 40 goals with him on the PP this season and only 12 without him and he's missed 12 games.

Ignore that if you want to but I think he's REALLY important to the PP.

I never said that he wasn't an asset to the PP. Maybe you should just read my last couple of posts again as it seems you're completely missing the point. And since you keep ignoring this, I'll just copy paste again:

----------------------
My post you responded to said this:
What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall?

Looks like you missed that part, or you decided to ignore it.
----------------------

I'm always happy to have a discussion, but if you're going ignore what I say, why bother to respond?

 

[Antropovsky]

Actually, it means more than you think, as does the absence of Reilly on the PP.

Looking at the teams numbers on the entire year, it's pretty striking just how valuable those two are and in Rielly's case, it's weird people dont realize how much of an asset he is on the PP.

I mean, looking at the whole year, Marner on-ice numbers rank the following out of the 212 forwards with over 100 PP minutes:

Shots/60: 9th
Scoring Chances/60: 5th
High Danger Scoring Chances: 6th
xGF/60: 5th
Goals Scored/60: 6th

Unlike many of players around him at the top, he is all alone without teammates too. For goals scored, Matthews and Nylander come in at 29th and 30th. Statisitically, he is one of the most valuable forwards in the league this season on the PP up there with the Kucherov and McDavid's.

Posting an outlier before he was injured has little bearing on that fact as does some other event from previous years. Teams go through slumps in all sorts of ways.

I mean, the Leafs score at a 12.25 goals/60 clip on the PP with Marner on the ice and Tampa scores at a 11.77 goals/60 clip with Kucherov (both in the top 10 leaguewide) . If Kucherov got hurt, would you argue it would have no bearing on the Bolts PP? Of course not.......then why are you arguing it with Marner? You are too deep in the rabbit hole man.

You are 100% correct, teams go through hot and cold streaks. As @Gary Nylund indicated, The leafs cold streak on the pp began 6 games before Marners injury where they had just 1 powerplay goal in 17 chances over those 6 games. They've played 11 games since Marners injury, in which the powerplay has continued to be cold. There is no evidence to suggest that this isn't just a continuation of the cold streak (as you've indicated) the Leafs started on 6 games before Marners injury and not a cold streak because Marner is out of the lineup.

However, I have several questions about your stats. What is the sample size in minutes without Marner vs with?

Who are the linemates with vs without him. For example, what is the pp with Matthews but without Marner vs with Marner and without Matthews?

To appropriately break down what the data your referencing, a more specific conversation would be had. Looking forward to it!

 

[ToneDog]

I think what they are saying is with Matthews and Marner split, FLA will need to decide who Barkov will match and the other gets the lessor player.

Probably but my point is no Leaf is "feasting" on Barkov (see last year's playoffs Leafs vs Panthers).

 

[Antropovsky]

Probably but my point is no Leaf is "feasting" on Barkov (see last year's playoffs Leafs vs Panthers).

I mean, to suggest that a team is going to debate whether to put their best player vs Marner or vs Matthews is silly. If marner and Matthew's are separated, Matthews will get the best match up, without a second thought. Unless of course, something ridiculous like Matthews linemates are Reaves and Dewar.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I just think your point is a silly point is all.

There are all sorts of reasons to win games, especially when you have one of the best teams in the league.

I was focused on the PP without Marner which isnt just failing to score but also failing to generate chances/shots whenever he is absent. Any objective person would look at the PP as of late and say the main reason is a lack of Marner.

I mean, jeez, the Leafs have scored 40 goals with him on the PP this season and only 12 without him and he's missed 12 games.

Ignore that if you want to but I think he's REALLY important to the PP.

So you're saying the Leafs scored 40 PP goals in the 62 games he's played, and 12 PP goals goals in the 12 games he's missed?

Check those numbers, because they suggest the PP is doing better without him.

 

[Racer88]

He hasnt played 82 games since he was 21. That is the point

You can’t call something, something else when it hasn’t happened
When things like points, goals and assists are counted and recorded and sometimes awards are given for them on a year by year basis they don’t qualify it by saying how many games a player played.
It is simply the years total so why don’t you admit you are wrong and move on

 

[Jojalu]

Missing a play is a thing, everybody missing play no exception... hockey its a game of mistake... but missing a play because you dont want to work its an other thing... and did you breally tried to bring back every mistake he did in 3 years?!?!?!

Ps its fun your talking about habs series from a defensive perspective where marner gave up only 1 5v5 goal all series long...

Yes marner will do mistake but he will make more great play than bad and he will NEVER forfeit/stop playing in any play even if he's extremely exhausted.

the fact is nobody producing as much primary points from core at 5v5/ 60 min played than him, no body allowed goal even if he was playing close to 20% more than nylander and even if he was the only player wwsting a lot of energy playing on pk.

Nylander had been on the ice for the same amount of goal in his last 175 minutes ( last playoff) at 5v5 in playoff than marner in his last 402 min, its also a fact ( last 3 years)

Fact is that over the past 3 playoffs Marner has 25 points and Nylander has 24.

Is Marner's defensive awareness worth 4 mil a season? No one can argue that Marner is not a more well rounded player than Nylander.

For 12 million over 3 years, he has to outproduce Nylander by a wider margin. Doesn't matter if it's 5v5 or on the PP. All goals count the same.

 

[Antropovsky]

I just think your point is a silly point is all.

There are all sorts of reasons to win games, especially when you have one of the best teams in the league.

I was focused on the PP without Marner which isnt just failing to score but also failing to generate chances/shots whenever he is absent. Any objective person would look at the PP as of late and say the main reason is a lack of Marner.

I mean, jeez, the Leafs have scored 40 goals with him on the PP this season and only 12 without him and he's missed 12 games.

Ignore that if you want to but I think he's REALLY important to the PP.

There are way too many variables to examine, a basic pp goals with Marner vs pp goals without Marner is much to simple and is "silly" to even suggest.

You've contradicted yourself even, where you admit teams go through hot cycles and cold cycles. The Leafs PP was on a cold cycle 6 games before Marners injury and has continued the next 11 games.

So... your taking your data without Marner, from a cold streak.

Just a bunch of sillyness in your post.

 

[ACC1224]

Probably but my point is no Leaf is "feasting" on Barkov (see last year's playoffs Leafs vs Panthers).

I don't think anyone thinks they would.

 

[Zybalto]

So you're saying the Leafs scored 40 PP goals in the 62 games he's played, and 12 PP goals goals in the 12 games he's missed?

Check those numbers, because they suggest the PP is doing better without him.

Naws, I was saying they have scored 40 with him out there and 12 without him on the ice...all year... and that he's missed 12 games too.

 

[ZEBROA]

What we've got here is failure to communicate
Some men, you just can't reach
So you get what we had here last week
Which is the way he wants it
Well, he gets it
And I don't like it any more than you men

 

[DarkKnight]

Fact is that over the past 3 playoffs Marner has 25 points and Nylander has 24.

Is Marner's defensive awareness worth 4 mil a season? No one can argue that Marner is not a more well rounded player than Nylander.

For 12 million over 3 years, he has to outproduce Nylander by a wider margin. Doesn't matter if it's 5v5 or on the PP. All goals count the same.

The cap hit discrepancy disappears soon, or at least it will narrow considerably. I know you know that, but with Willie getting paid, for me we expect it now, no matter if it isn't on the books this year.

The thing around here is this idea Willie is a playoff performer and I don't really agree. Take a key game against TB two years ago, he is absolutely awful, we're down 5-0 in the third, game is over and he suddenly scores 2 nothing stat pad goals. Context matters, in the key moments he disappears even strength just like Matthews and Marner, and he does it with less opposition focus. I think it mostly a myth that he's the one who shows up come playoffs.

Marner racked up a lot of points early, he disappeared in the big later series games and it was terribly disappointing. But, I would argue 34 was actually worse, his donut against Florida and disinterested jam was hard to watch. Nylander has had some moments, but shrinks like the rest of them, it's laughable to me to laud him like we do past real playoff performers. This whole group has a ton to prove.

 

[thusk]

Fact is that over the past 3 playoffs Marner has 25 points and Nylander has 24.

Is Marner's defensive awareness worth 4 mil a season? No one can argue that Marner is not a more well rounded player than Nylander.

For 12 million over 3 years, he has to outproduce Nylander by a wider margin. Doesn't matter if it's 5v5 or on the PP. All goals count the same.

it is marner fault if when he finished his roockie contract, he already had 33 points over nylander at the same moment of nylander career?

 

[Zybalto]

I never said that he wasn't an asset to the PP. Maybe you should just read my last couple of posts again as it seems you're completely missing the point. And since you keep ignoring this, I'll just copy paste again:

----------------------
My post you responded to said this:
What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall?

Looks like you missed that part, or you decided to ignore it.
----------------------

I'm always happy to have a discussion, but if you're going ignore what I say, why bother to respond?

Not ignoring it but was just focused on a small part of the game really, the PP.

If you want to pivot to 5v5, Marner got well over his customary slow start and since Dec 23rd:

Out of the 237 forwards with 450 5v5 minutes played, Marner ranks 3rd for goal differential (72.30%) and 3rd for goal differential relative teammates (+24.93).

So what we had in Marner before he got hurt was one of the most dynamic PP contributors combined with a beast when it came to 5v5 results.

....and considering Marner was playing great when he went down, Its sad he wasn't here to help us out and maybe we'd be near top of the league? All the close losses we did take might have been wins if we could have scratched out a PP goal or two or just would have been better with depth anyways.

The team does not look nearly as dynamic without him, that's for sure.

I just hope he hits the ground running as we gear up for the playoffs.

 

[Jojalu]

it is marner fault if when he finished his roockie contract, he already had 33 points over nylander at the same moment of nylander career?

33 points over 3 years harfly screams 4 million a year more.

But that is not the point.

Marner makes 4 million more. He has to outproduce Nylander by more than a single point over 3 years, regardless of the difference in defensive zone play.

 

[Notsince67]

You can’t call something, something else when it happened
When things like points, goals and assists are counted and recorded and sometimes awards are given for them on a year by year basis they don’t qualify it by saying how many games a player played.
It is simply the years total so why don’t you admit you are wrong and move on

You can't pretend something when it's something else. You are trying to make it sound like what you say matters. If someone else were to want to acquire Marner, do you think they value him based on an assumption of 82 games. This is really petulant shit and unworthy of an adult discussion. Nobody values his production on 82 games when he hasn't played them.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not ignoring it but was just focused on a small part of the game really, the PP.

If you want to pivot to 5v5, Marner got well over his customary slow start and since Dec 23rd:

Out of the 237 forwards with 450 5v5 minutes played, Marner ranks 3rd for goal differential (72.30%) and 3rd for goal differential relative teammates (+24.93).

So what we had in Marner before he got hurt was one of the most dynamic PP contributors combined with a beast when it came to 5v5 results.

....and considering Marner was playing great when he went down, Its sad he wasn't here to help us out and maybe we'd be near top of the league? All the close losses we did take might have been wins if we could have scratched out a PP goal or two or just would have been better with depth anyways.

The team does not look nearly as dynamic without him, that's for sure.

I just hope he hits the ground running as we gear up for the playoffs.

No, it wasn't. I'll copy paste one more time, I'll bold different parts this time, not sure what else I can do to help you understand. You also missed (or ignored) what I said about Rielly.


My post you responded to said this:
What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall?

Looks like you missed that part, or you decided to ignore it.

 

[Antropovsky]

Not ignoring it but was just focused on a small part of the game really, the PP.

If you want to pivot to 5v5, Marner got well over his customary slow start and since Dec 23rd:

Out of the 237 forwards with 450 5v5 minutes played, Marner ranks 3rd for goal differential (72.30%) and 3rd for goal differential relative teammates (+24.93).

So what we had in Marner before he got hurt was one of the most dynamic PP contributors combined with a beast when it came to 5v5 results.

....and considering Marner was playing great when he went down, Its sad he wasn't here to help us out and maybe we'd be near top of the league? All the close losses we did take might have been wins if we could have scratched out a PP goal or two or just would have been better with depth anyways.

The team does not look nearly as dynamic without him, that's for sure.

I just hope he hits the ground running as we gear up for the playoffs.

Might have been.... sure but it very much could have been more losses. Considering having Marner playing 20 mins a night greatly changes every aspect of the game play. Additionally the line that he typically is on (but was replaced with Domi) has been the Leafs best line over that time span. So this is a bit silly to even speculate on. The entire game changes when you introduce a player playing 20-25 mins of the game and change the line that had the most success in those games.

How to you explain Matthews 5vs5 scoring with and without Marner? This year Matthews has played over 1/4 of a season without Marner, and in that 1/4 sample size he has put up more than 2x the points than when he had Marner was on his line.

I'm a bit confused... after two games, certain posters were posting stats showing the Leafs couldnt win without Marner in past years... yet now that the Leafs are having incredible success without him.. now posters are saying, OMG imagine how much more success the Leafs would be having with Marner in the lineup.

Lol...

 

[Jojalu]

The cap hit discrepancy disappears soon, or at least it will narrow considerably. I know you know that, but with Willie getting paid, for me we expect it now, no matter if it isn't on the books this year.

The thing around here is this idea Willie is a playoff performer and I don't really agree. Take a key game against TB two years ago, he is absolutely awful, we're down 5-0 in the third, game is over and he suddenly scores 2 nothing stat pad goals. Context matters, in the key moments he disappears even strength just like Matthews and Marner, and he does it with less opposition focus. I think it mostly a myth that he's the one who shows up come playoffs.

Marner racked up a lot of points early, he disappeared in the big later series games and it was terribly disappointing. But, I would argue 34 was actually worse, his donut against Florida and disinterested jam was hard to watch. Nylander has had some moments, but shrinks like the rest of them, it's laughable to me to laud him like we do past real playoff performers. This whole group has a ton to prove.

Not that there ever is an excuse, but Nylander at 7 is more bang for your buck than Marner at 11 if you are just using raw points.

Of course Marner is better, and he got paid more because of it. In my opinion, he has to do more than be barely beat Nylander in points.

Next year Willy goes on the hot seat when his 11.5 kicks in.

 

[Zybalto]

No, it wasn't. I'll copy paste one more time, I'll bold different parts this time, not sure what else I can do to help you understand. You also missed (or ignored) what I said about Rielly.


My post you responded to said this:
What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall?

Looks like you missed that part, or you decided to ignore it.

I was talking about the PP and you dismissed it right away which I had to respond to.

I thought I gave a decent answer but I guess I'll go in the direction I think you want to go in a little more.

So overall we've gone 7-3-1 (.682) since Marner down.

From Jan. 1st to Marner's injury, we went 19-9-1 (.672)

The reason we've kept pretty much the same record is that Tavares stepped up huge from his earlier slump, partly due to great chemistry with McMann, Samsonov is playing his best hockey of the season (probably the biggest reason) and Matthews and Willy are maintaining their great play. The kid line and 4th line have also had their moments.

Underlying numbers:

From Jan. 1st to Marner's injury:

Shot differential: 3rd in the NHL
xGF%: 8th in the NHL
Goal differential: 4th in the NHL
Team shooting%: 11th in the NHL
Team save%: 18th in the NHL



Post Marner injury:

Shot differential: 17th in the NHL
xGF%: 14th in the NHL
Goal differential: 5th in the NHL
Team shooting%: 2nd in the NHL
Team save%: 10th in the NHL

Just like earlier in the year when we had issues, the team is gutting out points which is a good thing. Weathered the storm and we are in great position to grab home ice with Rielly back tonight and Marner next game. Getting a 2 way guy like Jarnkrok and Big Ed back on D will make a huge impact as well.

Team overall since Jan. 1st:

26-12-2 (4th in the NHL)
Shot differential: 6th in the NHL
xGF%: 8th in the NHL
Goal differential: 4th in the NHL
Team shooting%: 5th in the NHL
Team save%: 16th in the NHL

I'd still like to see that save% number higher but both goalies look like they are trending up.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I was talking about the PP and you dismissed it right away which I had to respond to.

I thought I gave a decent answer but I guess I'll go in the direction I think you want to go in a little more.

So overall we've gone 7-3-1 (.682) since Marner down.

From Jan. 1st to Marner's injury, we went 19-9-1 (.672)

The reason we've kept pretty much the same record is that Tavares stepped up huge from his earlier slump, partly due to great chemistry with McMann, Samsonov is playing his best hockey of the season (probably the biggest reason) and Matthews and Willy are maintaining their great play. The kid line and 4th line have also had their moments.

Underlying numbers:

From Jan. 1st to Marner's injury:

Shot differential: 3rd in the NHL
xGF%: 8th in the NHL
Goal differential: 4th in the NHL
Team shooting%: 11th in the NHL
Team save%: 18th in the NHL



Post Marner injury:

Shot differential: 17th in the NHL
xGF%: 14th in the NHL
Goal differential: 5th in the NHL
Team shooting%: 2nd in the NHL
Team save%: 10th in the NHL

Just like earlier in the year when we had issues, the team is gutting out points which is a good thing. Weathered the storm and we are in great position to grab home ice with Rielly back tonight and Marner next game. Getting a 2 way guy like Jarnkrok and Big Ed back on D will make a huge impact as well.

Team overall since Jan. 1st:

26-12-2 (4th in the NHL)
Shot differential: 6th in the NHL
xGF%: 8th in the NHL
Goal differential: 4th in the NHL
Team shooting%: 5th in the NHL
Team save%: 16th in the NHL

I'd still like to see that save% number higher but both goalies look like they are trending up.

Why bother to quote me if you're going to ignore what I'm saying? Seems like you're just trolling at this point but whatever, enjoy the game tonight.

 

[DarkKnight]

Not that there ever is an excuse, but Nylander at 7 is more bang for your buck than Marner at 11 if you are just using raw points.

Of course Marner is better, and he got paid more because of it. In my opinion, he has to do more than be barely beat Nylander in points.

Next year Willy goes on the hot seat when his 11.5 kicks in.

Absolutely, the points debate is meaningless to me, it's only part of the picture.