Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[Notsince67]

Sitting out Marner longer doesn't deflate his stats. It only limits this year's raw total, which wouldn't have any impact on negotiations.

Yeah...the common misconception here is that Marner gets measured on the lack of points he gets when he doesn't play including the pandemic. By all measurements, he is normalized as the equivalent of an over 100 pt player over the last 5 years with another year to go to compare against someone like Willy.

 

[DarkKnight]

You've made the same point a number of times. He has given his position as a result. Maybe it's your turn to give it a rest.

No it's very, very important to say the same thing over and over here, month after month. And then tell others they're "obsessed" with Marner. This is the thread where brain cells go to die.

Looks like a Saturday return, will be interesting how Keefe slots him back in, we have some mojo on the top line.

 

[Zybalto]

What's wrong with the PP?

One-ice PP results since January 1st:

Most shots/60 in the league: Marner
Highest XGF/60 in the league: Marner
Most goals scored/60 on the PP in the league: Marner

Take away the guy who was stirring the drink and it's not shocking when things go south.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

With all the bump up contracts with the other three if they pay Tavares 6-7 we will be in the same cap mess we have been in for the last 5 years. This team construction is not working, at least not with this group. if they flame out again major management and roster changes will be needed. We just can’t run the same crap yet again

You assume the MLSE Board cares. They don't. They only care about Entertainment.

Are you not entertained?

JT isn't getting 6-7 million from Toronto. He might grab that on the open market. But if he wants to be a Leaf there is no way you can agree to give him 6 or 7 million.

LOL. He'll get 5-6 million AAV here, easily. He'll retire a Leaf.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You assume the MLSE Board cares. They don't. They only care about Entertainment.

Are you not entertained?

LOL. He'll get 5-6 million AAV here, easily. He'll retire a Leaf.

You are 100% correct IMO and I am entertained, no two ways about it!

5-6 for JT sounds like a good prediction to me. That's a bit of a discount which I suspect he'll be happy to give us, ideally the term is no more than 2 years.

 

[Gary Nylund]

What's wrong with the PP?

One-ice PP results since January 1st:

Most shots/60 in the league: Marner
Highest XGF/60 in the league: Marner
Most goals scored/60 on the PP in the league: Marner

Take away the guy who was stirring the drink and it's not shocking when things go south.

This means nothing. The PP started to go south before Marner got hurt if I'm not mistaken and didn't the same thing happen around this time last year?

What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall? That was a rhetorical question BTW. I saw Boudreau say last night that we're playing perhaps our best hockey of the year as of late and I don't think he's wrong. Now in theory, take the team that's been playing really well lately, add Marner (and Rielly) to the lineup and you should have a strong contender but I wouldn't be surprised to see them both return and our level of play stay the same, or perhaps go down a bit.

This team is up and down like a yoyo and you never know if they're going to lose to a bottom feeder or look great against a top team on any given night. Bottom line, I wouldn't read much into a small sample size. Marner is one of our best players so our chances are of course better with him in the lineup, just like our chances are better with Rielly despite the fact that our record without him is great. And that BTW is the point - our record with or without any specific player really means nothing whether it's our W/L record, the PP, the PK or whatever else.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

This means nothing. The PP started to go south before Marner got hurt if I'm not mistaken and didn't the same thing happen around this time last year?

What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall? That was a rhetorical question BTW. I saw Boudreau say last night that we're playing perhaps our best hockey of the year as of late and I don't think he's wrong. Now in theory, take the team that's been playing really well lately, add Marner (and Rielly) to the lineup and you should have a strong contender but I wouldn't be surprised to see them both return and our level of play stay the same, or perhaps go down a bit.

This team is up and down like a yoyo and you never know if they're going to lose to a bottom feeder or look great against a top team on any given night. Bottom line, I wouldn't read much into a small sample size. Marner is one of our best players so our chances are of course better with him in the lineup, just like our chances are better with Rielly despite the fact that our record without him is great. And that BTW is the point - our record with or without any specific player really means nothing whether it's our W/L record, the PP, the PK or whatever else.


But ... but ... but ... he's so literate though.

Our depth has finally risen to the occasion which is helping to offset the loss of Marner.

Theoretically then the addition of marner + rielly to improved depth will be a huge bump

 

[Antropovsky]

What's wrong with the PP?

One-ice PP results since January 1st:

Most shots/60 in the league: Marner
Highest XGF/60 in the league: Marner
Most goals scored/60 on the PP in the league: Marner

Take away the guy who was stirring the drink and it's not shocking when things go south.

Particular members of this board are so predictable (in that they give Marner credit for things that hes undeserving of) that I took a photo of the TV during the FL game, it read "Leafs PP 4/43 since Feb 27, worst in NHL"

Hate to break it to you but Marner played 6 games at the front end of that time span. As @Gary Nylund said, it was bad with Marner too.

Marner stat tracker since his injury:

Matthews producing 2x more points without Marner (1/4 of the season sample size).

Domi has more primary assists than Mitch "Gretzky" Marner.

PK has gone 4 consecutive games without a PP goal against Without Marner.

Team is 7-3-1 without Marner.

Team has +15 more goals than against in the 11 games Marners been out.

...... lol let's talk about the PP now, we got nothing else! (Even though it was terrible the 6 games before he was injured).

 

[ACC1224]

Our depth has finally risen to the occasion which is helping to offset the loss of Marner.

Theoretically then the addition of marner + rielly to improved depth will be a huge bump

Definitely will be. It'll be nice to see a complete roster again, it's been a while.

 

[Antropovsky]

Leafs powerplay percentage the last 6 games that Marner played in:

1/17 = 5.8%

Damn, definitely need him back to get our pp back on track, because it was excellent before he was injured...clearly.

 

[DarkKnight]

Our depth has finally risen to the occasion which is helping to offset the loss of Marner.

Theoretically then the addition of marner + rielly to improved depth will be a huge bump

Exactly. When they come back the depth players will be feeling good about their game after the increased role, so hopefully that translates into supplementally scoring for the playoffs. The other team looks to negate our big boys, it's imperative others step up here and there to help us steal a game. Haven't seen too many successful playoff teams without it.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

What do you guys think regarding deployment for game 1 of the playoffs?

Do we go for a balanced lineup and put Marner on line 2 or 3? This gives us waves of offense and could allow Marner to feast on Lomberg rather than Barkov. We could always reunite him and Auston in the 3rd period

Or...do we go back to old reliable and run a great 1st line with Matthews/Mitch and pray that our 3rd and 4th line doesn't lose their minutes every game? Matthews and Mitch will likely win their minutes (they ought to) and that's great but what about the other lines? Will they be able to contribute enough offense? Perhaps Keefe feels we truly do need Line 1 to be stacked in order to realistically stay in a game against Barkov and Reinhart

It's almost like we're choosing between

Line 1 is a 10/10 with a pedestrian middle 9
Or
Line 1 is a 8/10 with a good middle 9

 

[sxvnert]

Perfect lineup against the Habs:

Bertuzzi Matthews Domi
McMann Tavares Marner
Knies Holmberg Nylander
Dewer Kampf Robertson

 

[ACC1224]

What do you guys think regarding deployment for game 1 of the playoffs?

Do we go for a balanced lineup and put Marner on line 2 or 3? This gives us waves of offense and could allow Marner to feast on Lomberg rather than Barkov. We could always reunite him and Auston in the 3rd period

Or...do we go back to old reliable and run a great 1st line with Matthews/Mitch and pray that our 3rd and 4th line doesn't lose their minutes every game? Matthews and Mitch will likely win their minutes (they ought to) and that's great but what about the other lines? Will they be able to contribute enough offense? Perhaps Keefe feels we truly do need Line 1 to be stacked in order to realistically stay in a game against Barkov and Reinhart

It's almost like we're choosing between

Line 1 is a 10/10 with a pedestrian middle 9
Or
Line 1 is a 8/10 with a good middle 9

I imagine it will depend on how the team and those players finish the season.
If it were to start tonight, I'd be surprised if Matthews/Domi/Bertuzzi were broken up.

 

[Stephen]

You are 100% correct IMO and I am entertained, no two ways about it!

5-6 for JT sounds like a good prediction to me. That's a bit of a discount which I suspect he'll be happy to give us, ideally the term is no more than 2 years.

That’s not a discount at all considering ROR and his tax free $4.5 million in Nashville. Same age, similar production.

 

[Notsince67]

What do you guys think regarding deployment for game 1 of the playoffs?

Do we go for a balanced lineup and put Marner on line 2 or 3? This gives us waves of offense and could allow Marner to feast on Lomberg rather than Barkov. We could always reunite him and Auston in the 3rd period

Or...do we go back to old reliable and run a great 1st line with Matthews/Mitch and pray that our 3rd and 4th line doesn't lose their minutes every game? Matthews and Mitch will likely win their minutes (they ought to) and that's great but what about the other lines? Will they be able to contribute enough offense? Perhaps Keefe feels we truly do need Line 1 to be stacked in order to realistically stay in a game against Barkov and Reinhart

It's almost like we're choosing between

Line 1 is a 10/10 with a pedestrian middle 9
Or
Line 1 is a 8/10 with a good middle 9

It depends on who they play

 

[ToneDog]

What do you guys think regarding deployment for game 1 of the playoffs?

Do we go for a balanced lineup and put Marner on line 2 or 3? This gives us waves of offense and could allow Marner to feast on Lomberg rather than Barkov. We could always reunite him and Auston in the 3rd period

Or...do we go back to old reliable and run a great 1st line with Matthews/Mitch and pray that our 3rd and 4th line doesn't lose their minutes every game? Matthews and Mitch will likely win their minutes (they ought to) and that's great but what about the other lines? Will they be able to contribute enough offense? Perhaps Keefe feels we truly do need Line 1 to be stacked in order to realistically stay in a game against Barkov and Reinhart

It's almost like we're choosing between

Line 1 is a 10/10 with a pedestrian middle 9
Or
Line 1 is a 8/10 with a good middle 9

If Marner could "feast" on Barkov, let somebody weaker "feast" on Lomberg. One thing you can count on, Lomberg will bring energy and will hit anything he can. Hoping Tre can find a way to sign him this summer. Lomberg Dewar Reaves as our 4th line would be interesting. Kampf and his cap hit needs to be moved.

 

[ACC1224]

If Marner could "feast" on Barkov, let somebody weaker "feast" on Lomberg. One thing you can count on, Lomberg will bring energy and will hit anything he can. Hoping Tre can find a way to sign him this summer. Lomberg Dewar Reaves as our 4th line would be interesting. Kampf and his cap hit needs to be moved.

I think what they are saying is with Matthews and Marner split, FLA will need to decide who Barkov will match and the other gets the lessor player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yeah...the common misconception here is that Marner gets measured on the lack of points he gets when he doesn't play including the pandemic. By all measurements, he is normalized as the equivalent of an over 100 pt player over the last 5 years with another year to go to compare against someone like Willy.

You forgot to mention his P/60 on the PK. Wasn't that was a key performance metric according to you?

 

[Racer88]

You assume the MLSE Board cares. They don't. They only care about Entertainment.

Are you not entertained?


LOL. He'll get 5-6 million AAV here, easily. He'll retire a Leaf.

You are probably right about the board. Some nights I am entertained and others I am frustrated beyond all measure. I want to win

Yeah...the common misconception here is that Marner gets measured on the lack of points he gets when he doesn't play including the pandemic. By all measurements, he is normalized as the equivalent of an over 100 pt player over the last 5 years with another year to go to compare against someone like Willy.

Yet he has never reached 100 points ever

 

[Notsince67]

You are probably right about the board. Some nights I am entertained and others I am frustrated beyond all measure. I want to win


Yet he has never reached 100 points ever

He hasnt played 82 games since he was 21. That is the point

 

[ACC1224]

He hasnt played 82 games since he was 21. That is the point

Everyone considers him a 100 point player, silly not to.
It's just a number though, PPG is what's important.

 

[Zybalto]

This means nothing. The PP started to go south before Marner got hurt if I'm not mistaken and didn't the same thing happen around this time last year?

What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall? That was a rhetorical question BTW. I saw Boudreau say last night that we're playing perhaps our best hockey of the year as of late and I don't think he's wrong. Now in theory, take the team that's been playing really well lately, add Marner (and Rielly) to the lineup and you should have a strong contender but I wouldn't be surprised to see them both return and our level of play stay the same, or perhaps go down a bit.

This team is up and down like a yoyo and you never know if they're going to lose to a bottom feeder or look great against a top team on any given night. Bottom line, I wouldn't read much into a small sample size. Marner is one of our best players so our chances are of course better with him in the lineup, just like our chances are better with Rielly despite the fact that our record without him is great. And that BTW is the point - our record with or without any specific player really means nothing whether it's our W/L record, the PP, the PK or whatever else.

Actually, it means more than you think, as does the absence of Reilly on the PP.

Looking at the teams numbers on the entire year, it's pretty striking just how valuable those two are and in Rielly's case, it's weird people dont realize how much of an asset he is on the PP.

I mean, looking at the whole year, Marner on-ice numbers rank the following out of the 212 forwards with over 100 PP minutes:

Shots/60: 9th
Scoring Chances/60: 5th
High Danger Scoring Chances: 6th
xGF/60: 5th
Goals Scored/60: 6th

Unlike many of players around him at the top, he is all alone without teammates too. For goals scored, Matthews and Nylander come in at 29th and 30th. Statisitically, he is one of the most valuable forwards in the league this season on the PP up there with the Kucherov and McDavid's.

Posting an outlier before he was injured has little bearing on that fact as does some other event from previous years. Teams go through slumps in all sorts of ways.

I mean, the Leafs score at a 12.25 goals/60 clip on the PP with Marner on the ice and Tampa scores at a 11.77 goals/60 clip with Kucherov (both in the top 10 leaguewide) . If Kucherov got hurt, would you argue it would have no bearing on the Bolts PP? Of course not.......then why are you arguing it with Marner? You are too deep in the rabbit hole man.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Everyone considers him a 100 point player, silly not to.
It's just a number though, PPG is what's important.

100 point player, not a 100 point player, I don't GAF myself. What's most important to me is playoff performance.

Actually, it means more than you think, as does the absence of Reilly on the PP.

Looking at the teams numbers on the entire year, it's pretty striking just how valuable those two are and in Rielly's case, it's weird people dont realize how much of an asset he is on the PP.

I mean, looking at the whole year, Marner on-ice numbers rank the following out of the 212 forwards with over 100 PP minutes:

Shots/60: 9th
Scoring Chances/60: 5th
High Danger Scoring Chances: 6th
xGF/60: 5th
Goals Scored/60: 6th

Unlike many of players around him at the top, he is all alone without teammates too. For goals scored, Matthews and Nylander come in at 29th and 30th. Statisitically, he is one of the most valuable forwards in the league this season on the PP up there with the Kucherov and McDavid's.

Posting an outlier before he was injured has little bearing on that fact as does some other event from previous years. Teams go through slumps in all sorts of ways.

I mean, the Leafs score at a 12.25 goals/60 clip on the PP with Marner on the ice and Tampa scores at a 11.77 goals/60 clip with Kucherov (both in the top 10 leaguewide) . If Kucherov got hurt, would you argue it would have no bearing on the Bolts PP? Of course not.......then why are you arguing it with Marner? You are too deep in the rabbit hole man.

Seems like you missed the point. My point is, analyzing numbers with or without this or that player is a pointless exercise. If you don't agree then start by analyzing our record when Rielly is not in the lineup and explaining the results.

Also - if no Marner is the reason the PP has been sucking, is no Marner the reason other parts of our game are doing so well? Think carefully now before you answer.

My post you responded to said this:
What's weird is how good we're playing with Marner out overall. Does this mean that Marner helps us on the PP but doesn't help us overall?

Looks like you missed that part, or you decided to ignore it. Maybe you're the one deep in the rabbit hole, but I know you can do better.

 

[Confucius]

100 point player, not a 100 point player, I don't GAF myself. What's most important to me is playoff performance.

It would be a pretty sad winter if our top players were trying to get 20 goals and 50 points.