Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[Zybalto]

xG value is the statistical chance of the unblocked shot to become a goal. xG is literally the most direct way to measure shot quality that exists, given the current Play-By-Play data. This PBP data is made by NHL available to the public, but it has its inaccuracies, inconsistencies and omissions.

2024 even strength:

Marner xG% with Matthews: 53.97
Marner xG℅ without Matthews: 42.5%
Matthew's xG% without Marner: 53.85

Good thing Matthews has Marner to increase his xG% by 0.12%!

Marner without Matthews looking pretty rough by comparison.

Putting aside the fact Marner plays less offensive zone minutes away from Matthews, you are absolutely correct that Marner is less effective away from Matthews.....but Matthews is also far less dangerous without Marner on his wing, especially in the playoffs. (Ill expand in a sec).

Theres still a lot of hockey to play though and a lot of Marner's data with Matthews was before some failed experiments without Knies on the wing.

Matthews/Marner Knies: (Ill use xG% label as you seem to like it and I will include the actual goal differential as well as the end results matter too.)

xG%: 57.33
Goal differential: 69.67%

If you really want to see the value of Marner though, I'll leave you (and others) with this:

We all want to see Matthews tearing it up in the playoffs as this guy seems like a once in a lifetime player to have on the team. Here are his splits over the last 3 years in the playoffs:

Matthews with Marner 5v5:
TOI: 330:36
xG%: 63.87
Goal differential: 64.71

Matthews without Marner 5v5:
TOI: 106:28
xG%: 52.21
Goal differential: 0.00

Thats right.......Auston Matthews has been on the ice for literally 0 goals scored in over 100 5v5 minutes away from Marner the last 3 years while tearing it up when he plays with him.

Let that sink in for a while before you try to cherry pick some other data set.

 

[DarkKnight]

Torture the data enough it will confess to anything.

Facts are stubborn. But statistics are more pliable. Get your facts first.

Then you can distort them as you please.

Both sides of the Marner debate have posted all kinds of stats to support their view. I don't think there's any doubt Marner is a great player. The problems with Marner all stem from attitude.

One of those I'M not taking a punch in the face for YOU attitudes.

But he fully expects you to take one in the face for him. It's called entitlement. And until he drops the snotty spoiled teenager approach he will continue to find himself in the crosshairs of the hardworking blue collar fans who pay for his salary.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can change that fact.

Ya that's why he's the most popular guy in the dressing room, because of his me first attitude. You guys are a farce, fiction. Geez.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Putting aside the fact Marner plays less offensive zone minutes away from Matthews, you are absolutely correct that Marner is less effective away from Matthews.....but Matthews is also far less dangerous without Marner on his wing, especially in the playoffs. (Ill expand in a sec).

Theres still a lot of hockey to play though and a lot of Marner's data with Matthews was before some failed experiments without Knies on the wing.

Matthews/Marner Knies: (Ill use xG% label as you seem to like it and I will include the actual goal differential as well as the end results matter too.)

xG%: 57.33
Goal differential: 69.67%

If you really want to see the value of Marner though, I'll leave you (and others) with this:

We all want to see Matthews tearing it up in the playoffs as this guy seems like a once in a lifetime player to have on the team. Here are his splits over the last 3 years in the playoffs:

Matthews with Marner 5v5:
TOI: 330:36
xG%: 63.87
Goal differential: 64.71

Matthews without Marner 5v5:
TOI: 106:28
xG%: 52.21
Goal differential: 0.00

Thats right.......Auston Matthews has been on the ice for literally 0 goals scored in over 100 5v5 minutes away from Marner the last 3 years while tearing it up when he plays with him.

Let that sink in for a while before you try to cherry pick some other data set.

I'm not sure what stats you're looking at but this isn't true at all.

According to NST since the 2021-2022 season until now Matthews has spent 860 minutes without Marner on his line. His GF% is 65.12% without Marner, 62.67% with Marner, and Marner is 54.84% without Matthews. One of these players actually is a superstar worth eight figures a year.

The other is Mitch Marner.

 

[Zybalto]

I'm not sure what stats you're looking at but this isn't true at all.

According to NST since the 2021-2022 season until now Matthews has spent 860 minutes without Marner on his line. His GF% is 65.12% without Marner, 62.67% with Marner, and Marner is 54.84% without Matthews. One of these players actually is a superstar worth eight figures a year.

The other is Mitch Marner.

I was providing data from the playoffs.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Ya that's why he's the most popular guy in the dressing room, because of his me first attitude. You guys are a farce, fiction. Geez.

I didn't actually say he had a "me first" attitude.

You are putting words into my mouth. As for creating fiction, neither one of us are in the dressing room, so saying he is the most popular guy in there appears to be some fan fiction of your own. Anyway I'm not here to argue with anyone so I'm not even gonna try and debate you on it.

I'm just here to post my opinion on the team every day.

I was providing data from the playoffs.

Oh... Sorry.

 

[ACC1224]

Ya that's why he's the most popular guy in the dressing room, because of his me first attitude. You guys are a farce, fiction. Geez.

Pretty common for pass first players who will one day lead a 100 plus year franchise in assists to be known as a 'me first player'.

This place some days

 

[DarkKnight]

I didn't actually say he had a "me first" attitude.

You are putting words into my mouth. As for creating fiction, neither one of us are in the dressing room, so saying he is the most popular guy in there appears to be some fan fiction of your own. Anyway I'm not here to argue with anyone so I'm not even gonna try and debate you on it.

I'm just here to post my opinion on the team every day.



Oh... Sorry.

Actually it isn't fiction, it's the real world, he's BELOVED in the room. Trying paying attention and not creating baseless amnesties to fit your juvenile bias.

Out to enjoy the day!

Pretty common for pass first players who will one day lead a 100 plus year franchise in assists to be known as a 'me first player'.

This place some days

I'm embarrassed for them.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Actually it isn't fiction, it's the real world, he's BELOVED in the room. Trying paying attention and not creating baseless amnesties to fit your juvenile bias.

Out to enjoy the day!


I'm embarrassed for them.

If you say so....

 

[Anthrax442]

I would love to love Marner. He is very talented. But his constant turnovers and ridiculous untimely bad passes, and just general aura about him are very unappealing. I think everyone wants to see him and pals just tear it up in the playoffs. Won't happen till they change their approach to the game (in playoffs).

 

[GoonieFace]

If you say so....

I have no doubt Marner is probably liked by his teammates, as are most players, there are probably very few players per team that people don’t like.

We all have our opinions on Marner. Problem is, if anyone has negative thoughts about him, it seems to really ruffle the feathers of a select group of posters.

It’s obvious that he benefits more from playing with Matthews than vice versa. It’s not diminishing the fact is he a very talented player.

Throw all the advanced stats you want at it, this core has been playoff failures. Hopefully, they can flip the script and Mitch will be a big part of that if they do.

 

[Dekes For Days]

7 games IS a small sample size, yes 7 years sounds like a lot, but think about it if a player had a 7 game scoring streak you'd be saying he's playing great, but it's a small sample size.

Also, the idea that we've lost series we should have won for 7 years isn't even true. In fact, we've probably got better outcomes than we deserved in 4 series, and worse outcomes than we deserved in 4 series. It's just that unfortunately, the worse outcomes were just enough to barely lose, and the better outcomes were just short of enough to win in 3 of the 4. At most you could say we should have had better outcomes in 4 of the 7 years, but even then, it's not like it's some mysterious boogeyman impacting us. It's obvious and known things. Suspensions in 2018/2019/2023, significant injuries in 2019/2020/2021/2023, horrible officiating in 2019/2022/2023, and super hot goaltending in 2020/2021/2023 combined to take away a lot of the original advantages and quality disparity we had.

 

[GoonieFace]

Also, the idea that we've lost series we should have won for 7 years isn't even true. In fact, we've probably got better outcomes than we deserved in 4 series, and worse outcomes than we deserved in 4 series. It's just that unfortunately, the worse outcomes were just enough to barely lose, and the better outcomes were just short of enough to win in 3 of the 4. At most you could say we should have had better outcomes in 4 of the 7 years, but even then, it's not like it's some mysterious boogeyman impacting us. It's obvious and known things. Suspensions in 2018/2019/2023, significant injuries in 2019/2020/2021/2023, horrible officiating in 2019/2022/2023, and super hot goaltending in 2020/2021/2023 combined to take away a lot of the original advantages and quality disparity we had.

 

[Dekes For Days]

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Images don't work on this site anymore FYI.

 

[ACC1224]

I would love to love Marner. He is very talented. But his constant turnovers and ridiculous untimely bad passes, and just general aura about him are very unappealing. I think everyone wants to see him and pals just tear it up in the playoffs. Won't happen till they change their approach to the game (in playoffs).

It's certainly fair to criticize the on ice play and/or just not like how a player plays.

This doesn't apply to your post, just in general, I think its when he's singled out as the issue for lack of success or his teeth/father/dog/cottage/etc are used as criticisms of the player, it just shows a childish view that shouldn't be taken seriously and best ignored.

 

[Zybalto]

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Ironic...

Here so many people are making Marner the "excuse" despite him doing his job compared to almost everyone else.

Literally pages of "I don't care what the stats say, Marner is the excuse!....the team assist king is selfish!....the crazy goal differential means he's a bad team player!.....yea he leads the team in playoff points but he can't produce when it counts!.......beloved in the dressing room but has a bad attitude!"

....and yea, I can't look away from the trainwreck.

 

[thewave]

Ironic...

Here so many people are making Marner the "excuse" despite him doing his job compared to almost everyone else.

Literally pages of "I don't care what the stats say, Marner is the excuse!....the team assist king is selfish!....the crazy goal differential means he's a bad team player!.....yea he leads the team in playoff points but he can't produce when it counts!.......beloved in the dressing room but has a bad attitude!"

....and yea, I can't look away from the trainwreck.

Marner is a bi-polar hockey player. Good in the regular season and then games 1-4 of the PO followed by a train-wreck in games 5-6-7. In NBA terms he isn't a closer or a top 10 talent. He just isn't that guy. The real choice here is very simple. Is 13million for this player going to help us get a cup?

 

[JKG33]

If you're a player making an 8 figure AAV... nah even lower, let's say >$8m... and you need to play with other players in that salary range just to produce like one yourself, you're probably not worth the cap hit.

Having 4 of those guys, each one should have their own line. You want that kinda cash? Then play with the middle/bottom 6 type wingers thatre all this team can afford with the remaining dollars. If they can't each carry a line something is seriously wrong.

Put them together on the PP with Rielly and you've got a $50m unit. If that ain't producing like a top 5 PP in the league, something is seriously wrong.

The PP is working. Matthews, as much as I don't like him, can at least carry his own line up until the playoffs. Can Marner? Can Nylander? Can JT?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ironic...

Here so many people are making Marner the "excuse" despite him doing his job compared to almost everyone else.

Literally pages of "I don't care what the stats say, Marner is the excuse!....the team assist king is selfish!....the crazy goal differential means he's a bad team player!.....yea he leads the team in playoff points but he can't produce when it counts!.......beloved in the dressing room but has a bad attitude!"

....and yea, I can't look away from the trainwreck.

It's certainly fascinating how when people simply discuss the actual, obvious, supported reasons for the playoff outcomes the team has gotten, some will proclaim "excuses!"... while they simultaneously make up their own reasons that have no factual support, in order to blame the players/staff they dislike.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If you're a player making an 8 figure AAV... nah even lower, let's say >$8m... and you need to play with other players in that salary range just to produce like one yourself, you're probably not worth the cap hit.

Most high-end players play with other high-end players. Some play on an entire line of high-end players.

Put them together on the PP with Rielly and you've got a $50m unit. If that ain't producing like a top 5 PP in the league, something is seriously wrong.

The Leafs have the 2nd best PP in the league since 2019.

 

[JKG33]

Most high-end players play with other high-end players. Some play on an entire line of high-end players.

The Leafs have the 2nd best PP in the league since 2019.

True high end players can play on their own.

If you'd read my last paragraph...

 

[ACC1224]

True high end players can play on their own.

If you'd read my last paragraph...

Any examples?

 

[Dekes For Days]

True high end players can play on their own.

Nobody plays on their own. Everybody plays with two other linemates.
Most high-end players have other high-end linemates, and while they could play with lesser players, they usually don't, as it's often not beneficial to the team.

 

[JKG33]

Any examples?

McDavid and Drai can produce separately, Crosby and Malkin always had their own lines (hell even Kessel did when they won cups), Mac's carried a line when split up from Rantanen.

Why can't Marner? He's paid in that range.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

True high end players can play on their own.

If you'd read my last paragraph...

Curious why you think Marner can't carry a line?

Our top 6 is too deep for Marner to even find himself in a situation to carry a line. I don't see why we'd send him to the bottom 6.

 

[thewave]

McDavid and Drai can produce separately, Crosby and Malkin always had their own lines (hell even Kessel did when they won cups), Mac's carried a line when split up from Rantanen.

Why can't Marner? He's paid in that range.

He is too weak to run a line. If he's the best thing on a line they would just hound him and his rather slow foot speed into ineffectiveness. Just like teams do in typical games 5-6-7. It's really apparent to see if you don't have the Marner bias goggles on.