Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[DarkKnight]

He's no guy with 300 followers on twitter, that can't skate, but Hall of Famer Adam Oates on Marek show today was heaping praise on Marner, "he does it all". Not sure who to give more weight too. Hmmm.

 

[Zybalto]

Goalie was a problem but our top guys not scoring was also a problem, so was Keefe game management and refs.
All things can be true at the same time.
Quite frankly beside the TB series where we lost, I really won’t state we outplayed the opposition. It was pretty even but at times especially during elimination games, we(as a team and not just top guys) tend to disappear or outplay by the other team.

I forget when the cutoff was but I remember calculating that the average Toronto elimination game was the Leafs outshooting the opposition 37-29 and Leafs goalies giving up a softie a game. That might have been before the first Tampa series, not sure though.

 

[GoonieFace]

I forget when the cutoff was but I remember calculating that the average Toronto elimination game was the Leafs outshooting the opposition 37-29 and Leafs goalies giving up a softie a game. That might have been before the first Tampa series, not sure though.

Anyway you wanna slice it, they have 1 series win in 7 years. You can post all the fancy stats you want, and it’s a large enough sample size that you can’t just say they are unlucky every year.

 

[AvroArrow]

138 point pace for 9.5 million Kucherov. 40 points more than 11 Million Marner.

Hey at least he might break 100 points for the first time!

Feels a bit like celebrating a first round win like it's a Stanley cup.

Yes because Kucherov would totally accept 9.5M in a state/province where he has to pay income tax, phenomenal post.

FYI Kucherov is taking home more money than Marner

 

[Gabriel426]

I forget when the cutoff was but I remember calculating that the average Toronto elimination game was the Leafs outshooting the opposition 37-29 and Leafs goalies giving up a softie a game. That might have been before the first Tampa series, not sure though.

Like I said, it is not JUST the goalie.
When the margin of error in the playoffs is razor thin, goalie making a save is the same as a forward putting the puck in net or even the coach switching up the lines for two shifts.
The difference between goalie and a forward is that when a goalie makes a mistake, most often or not it is in the back of the net, while when a forward makes a mistake, he just missed a chance scoring.
Not saying having Vas, or Bob or Price won't be the difference but at the same time, isn't it true that having guys like AM and MM should be making difference too?

 

[JL17]

Anyway you wanna slice it, they have 1 series win in 7 years. You can post all the fancy stats you want, and it’s a large enough sample size that you can’t just say they are unlucky every year.

At the end of the day in the playoffs you can have all the analytics you want to look at the final scoreboard is the most important one.

 

[DarkKnight]

At the end of the day in the playoffs you can have all the analytics you want to look at the final scoreboard is the most important one.

Like when the Knights won it all and he was the MVP, CHL player of the year right? You've been spending days undercutting the ultimate prize and then have the complete lack of self awareness to actually say that. Perfect, says it all.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Like when the Knights won it all and he was the MVP, CHL player of the year right? You've been spending days undercutting the ultimate prize and then have the complete lack of self awareness to actually say that. Perfect, says it all.

So you think that doing it in the CHL and doing it in the NHL are even remotely the same thing? You're probably one of those people who think that doing it in the regular season and doing it in the playoff are also the same thing but they're really not. Keep mocking people more knowledgeable then yourself though, that's always a good look.

Anyway you wanna slice it, they have 1 series win in 7 years. You can post all the fancy stats you want, and it’s a large enough sample size that you can’t just say they are unlucky every year.

Yeah when you keep getting outgoalied year after year after year, I don't see how you don't consider the possibility that maybe it's not really the goalies that's the issue here.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I posted this in the Matthews thread, but it really belongs here. For background, someone posted a while back the numbers showing how Marner's production drops off a cliff after the first 4 games of the playoffs. Someone has been arguing along the lines of "so does Kucherov" but has been too lazy to look up the numbers which is indeed a time consuming chore. Since it keeps coming up though, I decided to put in the work myself and I just looked up the number for Kucherov and posted this in the other thread.
============================================================================================

OK since this question has come up so many times, and because I am curious, I decided to put in the work myself and here's what I found.

First Marner. This work was done by someone else so I don't know how many years this is for, maybe his entire career, maybe less, I have no idea but these were the numbers:
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

Now Kucherov. I did this manually and it's a pain to do this so I could easily be off by a point here and there but I assume I'm at least close. I did only the last 5 years because TBH, it was just too much work to do his entire career and I figured 5 years would give us a pretty good idea but if you or anyone else wants to go back further, be my guest. And BTW, I do appreciate all the work you've put into posting various numbers, I'm not really a big numbers guy myself but they are interesting, and like I said, I do appreciate the work that goes into compiling these numbers.

Kucherov from 2018-19 to 2022-23:
Games 1-4 - 1.30 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.89 PPG

So yes Kucherov also drops off after the first 4 games, but nowhere near the extent that Marner does. If Marner had produced at a .89 level, we wouldn't be having this conversation and we could easily have a couple more series wins by now but as the saying goes, it is what it is.

To be fair to Marner, maybe these numbers for him are for his entire career, as I said I just don't know. If they are then that works against him and even if they're not and they were over say the last 5 years, we can't expect him to be as good 5 years ago as Kuch was 5 years ago because Kuch is older, and more experienced at that point. But still, while this comparison probably makes Marner's falling off a cliff look worse than it really is, it's still pretty bad. The good news is that Marner still has a few years left before he starts to decline as all players do sooner or later, and that means that he still has a few years to change the narrative. He better get started soon though because those years will be gone before you know it.

Come on Mitch, millions of Leaf fans are pulling for you. Feed on their energy and revel in the pressure. You can do it!

 

[Divine]

If Matthews is getting scoring chances and it translates to a 2% shooting percentage, what does Marner have to do with affecting that except for decreasing the shooting percentage through an increase in the shot denomenator?
It makes zero sense. You just continue to pretend that the line was being shut down by everyone other than the goalie.

It would suggest the scoring chances are low quality. Which, like I said, can be explained by having only one dangerous goalscorer on a line.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It would suggest the scoring chances are low quality.

But we know the chances aren't low quality.

 

[Divine]

But we know the chances aren't low quality.

How do we know that?

You think Matthews has the same quality of chances in the regular season and the playoffs?

 

[Dekes For Days]

How do we know that? You think Matthews has the same quality of chances in the regular season and the playoffs?

Well, I wouldn't expect anybody to have the exact same quantity and quality of shots and chances, as you're facing a higher quality of opposition, but Matthews' individual shots and chances don't drop very much. His individual expected goals rate at 5v5 drops by only 3.9%.

 

[ToneDog]

I posted this in the Matthews thread, but it really belongs here. For background, someone posted a while back the numbers showing how Marner's production drops off a cliff after the first 4 games of the playoffs. Someone has been arguing along the lines of "so does Kucherov" but has been too lazy to look up the numbers which is indeed a time consuming chore. Since it keeps coming up though, I decided to put in the work myself and I just looked up the number for Kucherov and posted this in the other thread.
============================================================================================

OK since this question has come up so many times, and because I am curious, I decided to put in the work myself and here's what I found.

First Marner. This work was done by someone else so I don't know how many years this is for, maybe his entire career, maybe less, I have no idea but these were the numbers:
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

Now Kucherov. I did this manually and it's a pain to do this so I could easily be off by a point here and there but I assume I'm at least close. I did only the last 5 years because TBH, it was just too much work to do his entire career and I figured 5 years would give us a pretty good idea but if you or anyone else wants to go back further, be my guest. And BTW, I do appreciate all the work you've put into posting various numbers, I'm not really a big numbers guy myself but they are interesting, and like I said, I do appreciate the work that goes into compiling these numbers.

Kucherov from 2018-19 to 2022-23:
Games 1-4 - 1.30 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.89 PPG

So yes Kucherov also drops off after the first 4 games, but nowhere near the extent that Marner does. If Marner had produced at a .89 level, we wouldn't be having this conversation and we could easily have a couple more series wins by now but as the saying goes, it is what it is.

To be fair to Marner, maybe these numbers for him are for his entire career, as I said I just don't know. If they are then that works against him and even if they're not and they were over say the last 5 years, we can't expect him to be as good 5 years ago as Kuch was 5 years ago because Kuch is older, and more experienced at that point. But still, while this comparison probably makes Marner's falling off a cliff look worse than it really is, it's still pretty bad. The good news is that Marner still has a few years left before he starts to decline as all players do sooner or later, and that means that he still has a few years to change the narrative. He better get started soon though because those years will be gone before you know it.

Come on Mitch, millions of Leaf fans are pulling for you. Feed on their energy and revel in the pressure. You can do it!

I've done some math for all but Caps playoff series (7 series).

Games 1-4 (28 games) (total points/points per games)

Matty	31​	1.11​
Mitch	36​	1.29​
Willie	22​	0.79​

Games 5-7 (16 games) (total points/points per games)

Matty	10​	0.63​
Mitch	8​	0.50​
Willie	13​	0.81​

 

[Antropovsky]

I've done some math for all but Caps playoff series (7 series).

Games 1-4 (28 games) (total points/points per games)
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Matty[/TD]

[TD]

31​

[/TD]

[TD]

1.11​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitch[/TD]

[TD]

36​

[/TD]

[TD]

1.29​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Willie[/TD]

[TD]

22​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.79​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Games 5-7 (16 games) (total points/points per games)
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Matty[/TD]

[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.63​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitch[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.50​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Willie[/TD]

[TD]

13​

[/TD]

[TD]

0.81​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

.. This is cherry picked data! Are you secretly a sports writer looking for clicks! Only certain advanced stats are useable...advanced stats that make Marner look like a good player!

Want me to explain myself thoroughly.....NO!! Surely I've done this countless times in the past...somewhere...even if nobody recalls it!

 

[Antropovsky]

xG value is the statistical chance of the unblocked shot to become a goal. xG is literally the most direct way to measure shot quality that exists, given the current Play-By-Play data. This PBP data is made by NHL available to the public, but it has its inaccuracies, inconsistencies and omissions.

2024 even strength:

Marner xG% with Matthews: 53.97
Marner xG℅ without Matthews: 42.5%
Matthew's xG% without Marner: 53.85

Good thing Matthews has Marner to increase his xG% by 0.12%!

Marner without Matthews looking pretty rough by comparison.

 

[DarkKnight]

"In terms of the most underrated athletes in this city, it's 100% Mitch Marner."

https://x.com/fan590/status/1759707974405108171?s=46&t=WFIOQmx68zn6ETcfoESWmA

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Torture the data enough it will confess to anything.

Facts are stubborn. But statistics are more pliable. Get your facts first.

Then you can distort them as you please.

Both sides of the Marner debate have posted all kinds of stats to support their view. I don't think there's any doubt Marner is a great player. The problems with Marner all stem from attitude.

One of those I'M not taking a punch in the face for YOU attitudes.

But he fully expects you to take one in the face for him. It's called entitlement. And until he drops the snotty spoiled teenager approach he will continue to find himself in the crosshairs of the hardworking blue collar fans who pay for his salary.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can change that fact.

 

[hoglund]

Anyway you wanna slice it, they have 1 series win in 7 years. You can post all the fancy stats you want, and it’s a large enough sample size that you can’t just say they are unlucky every year.

7 games IS a small sample size, yes 7 years sounds like a lot, but think about it if a player had a 7 game scoring streak you'd be saying he's playing great, but it's a small sample size.

 

[leafs in five]

I posted this in the Matthews thread

you have posted it in like 20 different threads in the last year

 

[studebaker17]

7 games IS a small sample size, yes 7 years sounds like a lot, but think about it if a player had a 7 game scoring streak you'd be saying he's playing great, but it's a small sample size.

These playoff stats being thrown around drive me insane. If one game can alter the stats conciderably then it's a pretty useless stat .

 

[Nineteen67]

Doesn't have to be, but Rosehill's podcast is mostly a fanboy type of show that leans to praising or dissing the team based on recent results. Rosehill's character is the main attraction.

I tend to agree.

IMO, it’s the best Leafs’ centric show available.

 

[Dekes For Days]

7 of the Leafs 8 series have been against Vezina winning goalies and almost all the goalies have also been on heaters and been in consideration for the best goalie of the playoffs (Price's crazy run to the finals, Korpisalo setting the playoff save record against the Bolts the next series, Bobrovsky's best playoff run ever to the finals, etc.) Very Leafy to hit these guys in the first/second round of course...The Leafs have outplayed nearly every team in the playoffs during the Matthews era and it's a little weird how folks cant put the obvious togther.

To put this in a bit of perspective, over the past 4 playoffs, the Leaf's have faced +20.85 GSAx goaltending overall.
Colorado, for example, has faced -15.82 GSAx goaltending overall over that same timeframe.
That's almost a 37 goal difference from just opposing goaltending alone.

If you had two equal teams, and one faced a Vezina goaltender every game, and the other faced a below average goaltender every game, there's going to be a disparity in team and individual production outcomes for reasons that aren't really about the team or player, but while this would be obvious to almost anyone, playoffs brings such a deep emotional reaction that logic and reason gets thrown out the window.

 

[Nineteen67]

"In terms of the most underrated athletes in this city, it's 100% Mitch Marner."

https://x.com/fan590/status/1759707974405108171?s=46&t=WFIOQmx68zn6ETcfoESWmA

My guess, his detractors point to his playoff performance.

 

[Gary Nylund]

you have posted it in like 20 different threads in the last year

I crunched the numbers only yesterday so you're either mistaken, or making things up.