Player Discussion Mitch Marner

[ToneDog]

I'll take any regular season accolades that support "We are a great regular season team" at this point!

We are not even a good regular season team this year. Matty and Willie carried them in the first half. Mitch isn't even on a 100 point pace and JT might not hit 70 points. We have little depth scoring and get almost nothing offensively out of our D. Luckily Sammy has found his game because our D is not very good.

 

[ACC1224]

We are not even a good regular season team this year. Matty and Willie carried them in the first half. Mitch isn't even on a 100 point pace and JT might not hit 70 points. We have little depth scoring and get almost nothing offensively out of our D. Luckily Sammy has found his game because our D is not very good.

Yep, certainly seem to have taken a step back this season.

 

[keonsbitterness]

We are not even a good regular season team this year.

I'm hanging on to the hope this will be to our advantage this year in the playoffs.........if we get there.

 

[Antropovsky]

Best to ignore, some just thrive on being miserable.

"can't enjoy the sun today, it rained last week and it may rain again next week".

You seem to have missed his last 5 abysmal playoff seasons. 5 years of rain is a lot different than a week.

I know select posters are trying to make others believe Marner has been good... But he's been actually very bad though once you dig deep into his analytics. Luckily an Athletic reporter did a deep dive in January and lays out how bad Marner has been:

Definitely far from sunshine and roses with Mitch Marner!

Best advanced data from the below article:
- marners impact relative to the average skater is slightly above average.
- leafs are creating less chances with marner on the ice, relative to his teammates
-he has a negative influence on his teams expected goal creation.
-leafs expected goals against ticked up .09 with him on the ice
-Toronto is just breaking even, with 50.3 percent of the expected goals share when Marner is deployed.

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?

Marner needs to bring the Maple Leafs more than what sometimes seems to be empty-calorie scoring.

theathletic.com

Here some of the great evidence based research done by the author:

Marner’s impact, relative to the average skater when accounting for his role, usage, and coaching, is still slightly above average as the heat maps reflect below (the top row is offense/bottom row defense, with red showing areas of more expected goal generation). But he’s someone the Leafs count on to be more than slightly above average — he’s expected to be a game-breaker, along with Nylander and Matthews.

Not only are the Leafs creating less in Marner’s minutes compared to previous seasons, but it’s also relative to his teammates this season. He’s rarely had a negative influence on his team’s expected goal creation, but this year it’s down to minus-0.17 per 60.

And that’s not the only side of the puck where Marner has been a negative relative to his teammates. There are a lot more defensive flaws on the Leafs this year compared to seasons past, and Marner has contributed to them. Toronto’s expected goals against have ticked up to 0.09 per 60 in his minutes, without any major changes in usage to explain it.

With a win in the books, it’s easy to chalk it up as a fine game for Marner. But that’s part of the problem this season: He’s had a bunch of fine games. Or games that seem fine on the scoresheet, but lack substance to back up that performance. Toronto needs him to be great more often than not — especially as the pressure rises in the second half of the season.

If that was where Marner’s dips stopped, there wouldn’t be much of a conversation. But someone of his caliber is expected to dominate his minutes, and that hasn’t been the case through much of the season. And that’s a key reason why his average Game Score has dropped from 1.37 last year to 1.10 through 42 games. In just under half of Marner’s games this year, his overall game hasn’t matched up to his play on the scoresheet — and his five-on-five play has a lot to do with it.

Toronto is just breaking even, with 50.3 percent of the expected goals share when Marner is deployed.

What may be even more influential about the Leafs’ 2.81 expected goals for in Marner’s minutes

 

[nsleaf]

You seem to have missed his last 5 abysmal playoff seasons. 5 years of rain is a lot different than a week.

I know select posters are trying to make others believe Marner has been good... But he's been actually very bad though once you dig deep into his analytics. Luckily an Athletic reporter did a deep dive in January and lays out how bad Marner has been:

Definitely far from sunshine and roses with Mitch Marner!

Best advanced data from the below article:
- marners impact relative to the average skater is slightly above average.
- leafs are creating less chances with marner on the ice, relative to his teammates
-he has a negative influence on his teams expected goal creation.
-leafs expected goals against ticked up .09 with him on the ice
-Toronto is just breaking even, with 50.3 percent of the expected goals share when Marner is deployed.

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?

Marner needs to bring the Maple Leafs more than what sometimes seems to be empty-calorie scoring.

theathletic.com

Here some of the great evidence based research done by the author:

You are obsessed with Marner, why so much hate?

 

[Antropovsky]

You are obsessed with Marner, why so much hate?

I'm obsessed with the leafs...not Marner. Note that I've been on this board since 2007, long before Marner was drafted. There is a select group that are obsessed with the Marner and are spinning false information about him and I'm only correcting them and showing how inaccuracies. If select posters stopped with the false information, I would post less about just how wrong those posters are.

 

[Notsince67]

You are obsessed with Marner, why so much hate?

Minus mitch

 

[DarkKnight]

Starving for attention.

 

[hullsy47]

Yep, certainly seem to have taken a step back this season.

Sucks balls tonite

 

[Antropovsky]

You are obsessed with Marner, why so much hate?

How is this hate lol? It's advanced stats posted by a reputable resource? That reputable company, and a few others this year have said Marner has not been good at all. Not just me. I'm posting want sports networks are saying.

I'm just a die hard leaf fan who wants to win a cup lol. I'm a fan of the team...not a fan of one player.

The non leaf fans and Marner fans are the posters (two whom liked your post - congrats) who are continuously posting that he's been excellent this year. It's called fake news. Despite many articles saying otherwise. It's called fake news on their part. They also said he's been excellent in past playoffs. When numerous articles say he wasn't. In fact I'm not sure if there is any that said he played good either. Those posters won't refute the data that says he's been bad though. They can't. They robotically tell everyone to block those who are critical of Marner lol.

@nsleaf tell me why you think this article written by the athletic is unfair to Marner for them to write. Feel free to refute the data. I'd love to hear why it's not accurate and why Marner is unworthy of such a negative article. Or are you going to ignore it like the Marner fans? Because you can't?

It's not negativity... It's facts. If you want to prove me wrong. I'd love that. But the marner fans don't want to discuss the advanced stats, they just want to attack posters for posting accurate information lol.

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?

Marner needs to bring the Maple Leafs more than what sometimes seems to be empty-calorie scoring.

theathletic.com

 

[Gary Nylund]

How is this hate lol? It's advanced stats posted by a reputable resource? That reputable company, and a few others this year have said Marner has not been good at all. Not just me. I'm posting want sports networks are saying.

I'm just a die hard leaf fan who wants to win a cup lol. I'm a fan of the team...not a fan of one player.

The non leaf fans and Marner fans are the posters (two whom liked your post - congrats) who are continuously posting that he's been excellent this year. It's called fake news. Despite many articles saying otherwise. It's called fake news on their part. They also said he's been excellent in past playoffs. When numerous articles say he wasn't. In fact I'm not sure if there is any that said he played good either. Those posters won't refute the data that says he's been bad though. They can't. They robotically tell everyone to block those who are critical of Marner lol.

@nsleaf tell me why you think this article written by the athletic is unfair to Marner for them to write. Feel free to refute the data. I'd love to hear why it's not accurate and why Marner is unworthy of such a negative article. Or are you going to ignore it like the Marner fans? Because you can't?

It's not negativity... It's facts. If you want to prove me wrong. I'd love that. But the marner fans don't want to discuss the advanced stats, they just want to attack posters for posting accurate information lol.

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?

Marner needs to bring the Maple Leafs more than what sometimes seems to be empty-calorie scoring.

theathletic.com

Advanced stats aren't very reliable when it comes to judging individual players IMHO. Then again, they're not always wrong and most importantly, Marner isn't very reliable either, especially when the pressure is on.

 

[Arzak]

Advanced stats aren't very reliable when it comes to judging individual players IMHO. Then again, they're not always wrong and most importantly, Marner isn't very reliable either, especially when the pressure is on.

Advanced stats worked better at the time of their creation. The fact that players are well aware of the matric makes it less usable now.

If you don't think players working their high-paid jobs being evaluated by such stats are not trying to improve them artificially, well, the world must be lovely in your head!

At the same time, we have an outlier with great advanced stats, a weird shot selection that makes no sense at first glance and always comes short on actual production. Despite playing with the best goal scorer in the game.

 

[Machinae]

Advanced stats aren't very reliable when it comes to judging individual players IMHO. Then again, they're not always wrong and most importantly, Marner isn't very reliable either, especially when the pressure is on.

Well, Marner looks like crap by the eye test too so his only saving grace was advanced stats since he's supposed to be this two-way transitional wizard that does all these little defensive things right. Turns out he's not that either.

This guy is not just 1-2 million overpaid. He's making double what he should, he's a 5-6 million dollar winger at most. He was at his best as the 2nd or 3rd option.

 

[ToneDog]

Well, Marner looks like crap by the eye test too so his only saving grace was advanced stats since he's supposed to be this two-way transitional wizard that does all these little defensive things right. Turns out he's not that either.

This guy is not just 1-2 million overpaid. He's making double what he should, he's a 5-6 million dollar winger at most. He was at his best as the 2nd or 3rd option.

I'd hate to see this guy without Matty for 82 games.

 

[ACC1224]

I'd hate to see this guy without Matty for 82 games.

Matthews would hate to see it as well.

 

[ToneDog]

Matthews would hate to see it as well.

No kidding, you would think one of the top 5 players in the league would not need a $10.893m winger. What other C making all that kind of money has that luxury? Answer Tavares next year. LOL.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Advanced stats worked better at the time of their creation. The fact that players are well aware of the matric makes it less usable now.

Advanced statistics are still quite valuable, when not butchered and used incorrectly.

No kidding, you would think one of the top 5 players in the league would not need a $10.893m winger. What other C making all that kind of money has that luxury?

Most great players play with other great players.

 

[nsleaf]

How is this hate lol? It's advanced stats posted by a reputable resource? That reputable company, and a few others this year have said Marner has not been good at all. Not just me. I'm posting want sports networks are saying.

I'm just a die hard leaf fan who wants to win a cup lol. I'm a fan of the team...not a fan of one player.

The non leaf fans and Marner fans are the posters (two whom liked your post - congrats) who are continuously posting that he's been excellent this year. It's called fake news. Despite many articles saying otherwise. It's called fake news on their part. They also said he's been excellent in past playoffs. When numerous articles say he wasn't. In fact I'm not sure if there is any that said he played good either. Those posters won't refute the data that says he's been bad though. They can't. They robotically tell everyone to block those who are critical of Marner lol.

@nsleaf tell me why you think this article written by the athletic is unfair to Marner for them to write. Feel free to refute the data. I'd love to hear why it's not accurate and why Marner is unworthy of such a negative article. Or are you going to ignore it like the Marner fans? Because you can't?

It's not negativity... It's facts. If you want to prove me wrong. I'd love that. But the marner fans don't want to discuss the advanced stats, they just want to attack posters for posting accurate information lol.

Mitch Marner is scoring, but is there enough substance to his game this season?

Marner needs to bring the Maple Leafs more than what sometimes seems to be empty-calorie scoring.

theathletic.com

Not obsessed eh? Okie dokie.

 

[arso40]

Well, Marner looks like crap by the eye test too so his only saving grace was advanced stats since he's supposed to be this two-way transitional wizard that does all these little defensive things right. Turns out he's not that either.

This guy is not just 1-2 million overpaid. He's making double what he should, he's a 5-6 million dollar winger at most. He was at his best as the 2nd or 3rd option.

Cmon man that’s a bit much dont you think?

 

[Gabriel426]

Really think MM should play with Domi and Robbie and if they work. It solves a few problems, 1. Another effective line 2. Depth scoring

 

[Antropovsky]

one else has any finish on this team. Especially centers.

Tavares had a career high in goals the instant he played with Marner.

Matthews has the most goals in the league since he entered the league and like 90% of them have come off the stick of 16.

edit: LOOK at that pass he just made, not his fault no one finished it lol

@BTP didn't get a chance to answer your post to me (attached above) before the GDT was closed. Thought it made sense to do it here.

- To your comment that most Matthews goals have been passes from Marner. Matthews scored 40 goals in his rookie season. At the age of 22, Matthews produced at a 45 goals, 88 point pace in 2019, playing with Marleau, Johnsson and Kapanen. Yes, very bad linemates. While also dealing with injury. This year, he played 10 games with Nylander, instead of Marner. In those 10 games he scored 12 goals. Obviously, Matthews has no problems scoring without Marner. If he produced a 45 goal pace at age 22 with 3rd liners, what would he do with any quality 2nd line players?

Just to give you an idea how much help Matthews needs.

On to Tavares. Tavares was 27 in the middle of his prime in 2019, and coming off being a two time finalist for the Hart trophy in previous years on the Island. There were multiple podcasts and articles that broke down advanced stats and game tape, indicating that Marner was significantly more likely to be the beneficiary to Tavares being on his line. Not the other way around. In fact I've posted the article where an author breaks down advanced stats showing how Tavares boosted Marner (because Marner seen a significant improvement to having Tavares, while Tavares so a marginal improvement on his own). Tavares had a well documented history of boosting the advanced stats of his linemates. Additionally, it was broken down that, some players actually seen their advanced stats go down when paired with Marner. I believe it was JVR. While many here try to spin that everyone who played with him saw a boost in their production. Also, Tavares was in his first year in his hometown and likely playing on adrenalin.Tavares and Marners magic disappeared the following season..which leans more to Tavares being play driver.

This year... Marner has been awful unless put on Matthews line. Another indication that Marner needs Matthews. Nylander is producing at incredible pace, primarily not playing with Matthews. Why can he do it with the scrubs that Marner can't?

 

 

[Maple Leaf]

Load management like kawdi leonard

 

[DraftSchmaft]

I get the sense Marner realized how easy it is for them to crack the top 8 and expending all his energy in the regular season is totally pointless.

I'm confident in my theory he's coasting at times on purpose and planning to lay the smack down in Spring.

 

[Arzak]

I get the sense Marner realized how easy it is for them to crack the top 8 and expending all his energy in the regular season is totally pointless.

I'm confident in my theory he's coasting at times on purpose and planning to lay the smack down in Spring.

There is nothing in this world to support your theory.

I am more confident in Knies carrying us to SC victory. But let's hope you're right. Playoff Mitch , rofl.

I like how Marner being bad is a good thing !!! That's a new one

 

[BraveCanadian]

I love how Marner sets up Matthews a half dozen times and picks up a couple great assists and the reaction on the board here is he sucks.

Oh, and he still has more points in the playoffs than your supposed playoff studs and he’s better defensively too.

Having a bit of an up and down year and he’s still 15th in the league in points.. hope he can get hot down the stretch.