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Mitch Marner, Yet Again

Dekes For Days said:
No. It would be about how your points are distributed, not whether or not you hit some arbitrary mark. Even by your measure, 8 of the 15 forwards on your list hadn't hit 40 goals. 5 more had only done it once.

I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. From your list, looking at goals as a percentage of points at the time they signed their current contracts...

Marner is at 30%.
McDavid was at 31%.
Huberdeau was at 32%.
Panarin was at 36%.
Crosby was at 37%.
Mackinnon was at 37%.
Barkov was at 39%.
Pettersson was at 41%.
Nylander was at 41%.
Eichel was at 42%.
Benn was at 43%.
Tavares was at 44%.
Seguin was at 45%.
Pastrnak was at 48%.
Matthews was at 55%.

The list has players that were primarily playmakers, goal scorers, and everything in between.
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So what is the cutoff for a goal scorer defined by points distribution? 40%? How is that determined?
 
TopCheeseShotta said:
Dude is unreal... Top 5 in the league with broken Matty and a growing 22 year old. Great 5v5 assist, and a stellar shot on a beauty feed from our broken captain. Good effort on his azz a few times tonite too. This version of MM is definitely who we need in the Post Season.
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It is pretty remarkable, the points, with Matthews at such a low shooting percentage, injuries, etc.
 
Antropovsky said:
This is what Keefe and Marner meant when saying teams are focused on Matthews and Marner needs to take advantage of it. Matthews has the puck and nobody cares about Marner gliding alone through the slot with his stick raised, Matthews RETRIEVES his own rebound and PASSES the puck to Marner whose still standing in slot alone with stick raised.

Or maybe it's just a defensive breakdown but one thing is for certain Matthews doesn't get a play like this from Marner because Marner isn't gonna skate into that battle for his own loose puck and make that pass to Matthews.

Yes, we've graduated from stills to gifs:

View attachment 1005213

Matthews ability to make a play and without hesitation and attack a new play is as good as anyone in the league. Same thing Matthews did on the game 5 or game 6 gwg vs Tampa years ago. He backchecked, physically knocked the Tampa player off the puck, then without any hesitation pivoted and went directly on the attack and created a 2 vs 1 with Marner (who of course was standing at center ice waiting for a pass after Bunting and Matthews won their board battle ....seeing a pattern here?).


This play catches the tail end of Matthews hit, but watch how he transitions from the hit directly to offense mode...incredible and elite.

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You know if we watching your own gift only, Matthews probably did the easiest play of the sequence. It's actually knies who won that puck battle for rebound and Mathews just took a free puck to send it to Marner

Majority of goal need pretty good work of at least 3-4 guy on the ice and be the case for every leafs vs cats. If anyone don't make his job, goal just doesn't happen
 
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Antropovsky said:
Three seasons of data of Marner with Matthews vs Marner with Tavares.

Do with the info as you like:

Years: 2021-2022, 2022-2023, 2023-2024

MARNER approx:
Sample size 1000 mins with Tavares (the accurate numbers were in chart attached)
Sample size 2000 mins with Matthews
(the accurate numbers were in chart attached)
Marner with Matthews 5v5 stats in 1400 mins (approx full season)
In 1,400 minutes:
  • Marner would score approximately 16.1 goals with Tavares.
  • Marner would score approximately 28.7 goals with Matthews.
  • That’s a 78.26% increase in goals when playing with Matthews compared to Tavares.
Marner points Matthews and Tavares in 1400 mins (approx full season)
In 1,400 minutes:
  • score approximately 53.9 points with Tavares.
  • score approximately 81.67 points with Matthews.
  • That’s a 51.52% increase in points when playing with Matthews compared to Tavares

View attachment 1005230

Meanwhile, Matthews stats increase moderately when Marner is off his line but overall he's largely unaffected by having Marner off his line.

With Marner (per 60 mins)​

  • Goals: 1.64
  • Primary Assists: 0.90
  • Secondary Assists: 0.45
  • Total Assists: 1.35
  • Points: 2.99
In 1400 minutes (projected):
  • Goals: 38.3
  • Primary Assists: 21.0
  • Secondary Assists: 10.5
  • Total Assists: 31.5
  • Points: 69.7

Without Marner (per 60 mins)​

  • Goals: 1.80
  • Primary Assists: 0.84
  • Secondary Assists: 0.38
  • Total Assists: 1.22
  • Points: 3.03
In 1400 minutes (projected):
  • Goals: 42.0
  • Primary Assists: 19.6
  • Secondary Assists: 8.9
  • Total Assists: 28.5
  • Points: 70.7
Click to expand...

[MOD]

Summary
Marner gets many more points with Matthews than Nylander does.
Marner and Nylander get the same number of points with J.T.
Matthews gets more points with Marner than Nylander.
J.T gets many more points with Marner than Nylander.

Conclusion
Matthews and Marner are superstars.
Nylander and JT are pretty good.

Note, I'm just duplicating the clown's stats. This is not the way to do it because it doesn't include any defensive stats but it shows his lack of integrity and credibility by ignoring the comparison to Nylander.

Same time fame, context, /60 and web site as the clowns.

Screenshot 2025-04-03 083427.png


It's not a typo, Marner with JT got 40 points and JT with Marner got 40 points.
 
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mclaren55 said:
So what is the cutoff for a goal scorer defined by points distribution? 40%? How is that determined?
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You can choose whatever cutoff you want, because it doesn't actually matter. The point is, it's not a binary thing. It's a spectrum. And there's no evidence that where you land on that spectrum makes a difference.
 
Dekes For Days said:
You can choose whatever cutoff you want, because it doesn't actually matter. The point is, it's not a binary thing. It's a spectrum. And there's no evidence that where you land on that spectrum makes a difference.
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Of course it isn't binary, but we were defining these guys in a binary way earlier in the thread, hence me asking "what's the cut-off".

Is it just coincidence that the top 3 players as % of cap are centres that have achieved 50+ goal seasons, while 2 have achieved 60+ goal seasons? Seems like a correlation to me. Doesn't that negate "no evidence that where you land on that spectrum makes a difference."?
 
ACC1224 said:
Excellent again last night. Not many players can make that pass, incredible.
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When I saw the first goal, I was thinking that had that been Marner making that slap pass instead of Nylander, there would be people here saying stuff like "there are only 3 people in the world that can make that pass". :laugh: :laugh:

Your predictability made my day, thanks for that!

P.S. Nylander's a sharp cookie, he thinks the game better than he gets credit for. :)
 
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Gary Nylund said:
When I saw the first goal, I was thinking that had that been Marner making that slap pass instead of Nylander, there would be people here saying stuff like "there are only 3 people in the world that can make that pass". :laugh: :laugh:

Your predictability made my day, thanks for that!

P.S. Nylander's a sharp cookie, he thinks the game better than he gets credit for. :)
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Why do you have to compare the two? Both were great plays. Marner made an insane pass, Nylander made a great shot pass.
 
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mclaren55 said:
Why do you have to compare the two? Both were great plays. Marner made an insane pass, Nylander made a great shot pass.
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Why not ask @ACC1224, he's the one constantly polluting the Marner threads by shitting on Nylander.

BTW, I posted last night about what a great pass Marner made, and I also noted the beautiful finish by Knies. I support all our players and I try to stay objective.
 
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Did mitch score a pivotal goal last night? Nah... impossible...he's not clutch .... I thought he's not a goal scorer and is not a clutch player.... brilliant assist on the Gold medal winning goal, go ahead goal against our division rivals, at home, while 1st place is on the line.... one might think some people are creating false narratives about Mitch not being clutch.... LOL... #idiots.

Fourth in the league in scoring ... without Matty for 1/3rd of the season... #luckytohavehim #hatersdontknowshit
 
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thewave said:
I think if Marner plays like the 3rd period last night during the playoffs even 30% of the game when needed, nobody at all will complain and if the other player pitch in, we'll win.
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This is true, he was having a pretty awful game last night but redeemed himself nicely with some clutch plays in the last 10 minutes of the game. If he does that come playoff time, we are set for a deep run.
 
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thewave said:
I think if Marner plays like the 3rd period last night during the playoffs even 30% of the game when needed, nobody at all will complain and if the other player pitch in, we'll win.
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Yup. We don't need anyone to be amazing 100% of the time. 30% is more than enough, just get through the other 70% without doing really stupid stuff.

Marner's looking good, really hope this version of Marner in round 2 of the playoffs. :)
 
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mclaren55 said:
Of course it isn't binary, but we were defining these guys in a binary way earlier in the thread, hence me asking "what's the cut-off". Is it just coincidence that the top 3 players as % of cap are centres that have achieved 50+ goal seasons, while 2 have achieved 60+ goal seasons? Seems like a correlation to me. Doesn't that negate "no evidence that where you land on that spectrum makes a difference."?
Click to expand...
But that's not what their contracts represent. Only Matthews had a 50 or 60 goal season, and only Matthews would be classified as a "goal scorer" by that 40% cut off. Mackinnon had a career high of 41; his only season over 40, and a 37% goal percentage. McDavid had a career high of 30, and a 31% goal percentage that is almost identical to Marner, and he got the highest cap hit percentage of them all.

And while your sample of 3 being centers could be considered evidence that a lot of top players are centers (and they are), that is not the same as evidence that their position inflated their contracts beyond their relative quality and impact level. These are 3 of the best players in the world, so them getting 3 of the biggest contracts isn't unusual, and doesn't suggest an additional cause or specific qualifier. Players of all types get big contracts. Centers, wingers, goalscorers, playmakers, and everything in between.
 
GoonieFace said:
Terrible 2 periods, great 3rd period. Loved how he went to a dirty area to score. We need more of that from him, especially with the 2 big boys on his line digging out pucks.

I hope they realize you can’t just show up when you want in the playoffs, it’s a grind.
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I thought we dominated the entire 1st period tbh, Bobrovsky was phenomenal we could have had 2 goals in the 1st

2nd period sucked, Florida had the momentum from the PP to start the period but I didn't think it was overwhelmingly in their favor
 
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