Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[BraveCanadian]

I find the leafs do not make efficient changes, they coast to the bench, they extend shifts way too long and get caught out there.

Hate how completely unconcerned they are as they coast off after some shifts.

 

[Confucius]

Hate how completely unconcerned they are as they coast off after some shifts.ne changes.

That may have to do with a loosening of the rule on Line changes. Seems to me players are being allowed to jump on as soon as the on ice player starts heading to the bench. Skating in nonchalantly is just emphasizing to the refs you are out of the play and will not get involved.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Kucherov has 0 game 7 points, that is less than Maner.

Is Marner a better player when it is really all on the line?

Assuming you think he should be paid more because of that tiny sample size...

Just want to know if this applies to all players or just Marner.

After the first 4 games of the playoffs, Marner scores at little better than a 40 point pace. Let that sink in.

 

[DarkKnight]

It's true but I've been encouraged by him lately. I see glimpses of his old self.

Agreed, I didnt like him last night, but last two weeks he looks good, freer and more engaged.

 

[Menzinger]

A deal starting with 12 should be just fine. He can go shopping if he wants closer to 14

 

[Antropovsky]

View attachment 1005312

It's not a typo, Marner with JT got 40 points and JT with Marner got 40 points.

Very interesting... let's see over last two years. Little more apples to apples considering Marner was making 35% more than Nylander in 2/3 of those years, and recently data is more important (both have a contract year in the mix too):

Matthews with Nylander
G/60:1.47
Assists/60:1.33
Points /60: 2.8
Xg/60: 1.44
High danger chances for:7.66


Matthews with Marner
G/60:1.25
Assists/60:1.33
Points /60:2.58
Xg/60: 1.23
High danger chances for:6.14


Tavares with Nylander
G/60: 0.87
Assists/60: 1.35
Points /60: 2.21
Xg/60: 1.06
Individual scoring chances: 10.57
High danger chances for:5.86

Tavares with Marner
G/60: 1.23
Assists/60: 0.86
Points /60: 2.09
Xg/60: 0.86
Individual scoring chances: 7.74
High danger chances for:4.05

Hmmm... so what do we know?

Marners stats plummet when he's without Matthews.

Matthews increase when he's without Marner.

Both Tavares and Matthews are more productive with Nylander rather than Marner.

What we don't know: what are Marners stats without both Tavares or Matthews. We only got small sample sizes of him ever without both and they are very bad. We do know that Nylander, Tavares and Matthews are very productive on their own lines without other stars.

Pretty chart for you:

 

[notbias]

After the first 4 games of the playoffs, Marner scores at little better than a 40 point pace. Let that sink in.

cool?

I am saying we can cherry-pick stats as much as we want to.

In game 7s, Kucherov scores at a 0 point pace, let that sink in.

 

[Skullz]

A deal starting with 12 should be just fine. He can go shopping if he wants closer to 14

12.6 would be a terrific deal, and a PR win for Mitch. Hope it happens, but doubt it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

cool?

I am saying we can cherry-pick stats as much as we want to.

In game 7s, Kucherov scores at a 0 point pace, let that sink in.

I don't give a shit about Kucherov, the players on our team are my only concern. Let that sink in.

Agree that we can cherry-pick all we want, but not sure that looking at Marner's playoff stats over his entire career qualifies as cherry-picking. But you and I aren't going to agree here, we've done all this before so I'll just say opinions vary, and GLG!

 

[therealkoho]

I think the previous RFA negotiations speak for themselves in terms of what his priority is..if it's not necessarily about raw dollars then it's also about optics, being recognized as the teams top guy, which in turn gets conferred first and foremost by caphit

For the record doesn't make him a bad guy - hockey is a business.

That said, I would amend the original point in that I don't think he's going to get substantially more from other teams. And certainly won't get the bonus structure he'd get with a Leafs extension.

Cap hit may superficially point to the best player. Mstthews is one of if not the leagues highest paid player, and he's not close to being the leagues premier player, and tbh I don't think he's ever to be close to it. In the top 7 for sure.

 

[Antropovsky]

Lmfao when Antro came in here and immediately started to try to diminish the goal by saying Marner was in the slot with his stick up as if that matters, I almost pissed myself laughing. He’s gotta find something to pick on about every Marner goal, and the reason get more and more stupid each time.

Whose the playmaker, Marner or Matthews? Matthews has more primary assists per/60 with Knies than Marner. I keep getting told that Marner is a pass first player and shouldn't be judged on shots totals or goals. Is Matthews a pass first player too?

 

[Antropovsky]

I’ve read Mathews was injured otherwise his numbers would be better. Well MacKinnon has 30 goals one more tha Matty. Who does he need, McDavid?

So if Knies gets 9, and Marner gets 14.... they will be a 36 million dollar line. Jeez... what kind of point totals should a 36.25 million dollar line get?

Marner has 13 goals and 44 points 5v5 (13 secondary)
Nylander has 22 goals 40 points 5v5 (6 secondary)
Tavares has 21 goals 39 points 5v5 (5 secondary)
Matthews has 20 goals 31 points 5v5 (9 secondary)

Nylander mins with Matthews/Tavares:
1133 total mins.
607 +137 = 744 mins with Matthews/Tavares

65% mins with Matthews and Tavares as a center.

Marner mins with Matthews and Tavares as a center:
1075 mins totals, 676.28+262.57 = 939
87% with Matthews and Tavares as a center.

Hmmmm....imagine if Marner played 35%, of his time without Tavares, Matthews, Nylander on his line?

It gets worse when you add Knies whose the next top Leaf forward and Marner has played 630 mins with Knies while Nylander has just over 200 mins.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Whose the playmaker, Marner or Matthews? Matthews has more primary assists per/60 with Knies than Marner. I keep getting told that Marner is a pass first player and shouldn't be judged on shots totals or goals. Is Matthews a pass first player too?
View attachment 1005740

No Matthews is a goal scorer first and foremost. Definitely an underrated play maker as well. He has 40 assists in his 60 games this year.

 

[francis246]

Whose the playmaker, Marner or Matthews? Matthews has more primary assists per/60 with Knies than Marner. I keep getting told that Marner is a pass first player and shouldn't be judged on shots totals or goals. Is Matthews a pass first player too?
View attachment 1005740

What does this have to do with you complaining about Marner having his stick up ready for a one timer?

 

[LeafEgo]

I'd go Dubas before Columbus.

There are quite a few teams who could sign him to 7 year deals.

Or course Leafs could do an 8 year sign and trade.

What do you get for that?

I think the return on an eight year sign and trade is simply compensation for bringing the contract value down.

iirc Oilers wanted Hyman for 500k less on an eight year deal and were willing to give up a 5th or something for that, but it fell apart because Leafs wanted a 2nd or a 3rd.

Marners contract might be a bigger reduction, perhaps a milly, but despite the player the return could be a middling pick.

 

[Gabriel426]

12.6 would be a terrific deal, and a PR win for Mitch. Hope it happens, but doubt it.

How is 12.6mil a good deal for the Leafs. Esp if they get knocked out in first round again?

 

[LeafEgo]

12.6 would be a terrific deal, and a PR win for Mitch. Hope it happens, but doubt it.

What has it come to that 600k more than Ranta, highest paid winger ever, signed a few months prior, is a terrific deal and a PR win?

The PR campaign may have already won.

 

[Antropovsky]

What does this have to do with you complaining about Marner having his stick up ready for a one timer?

Your not always saying Marner is a playmaker who shouldn't be judged on goals? Why is Matthews, a top two goal scorer in the NHL since engering thr league, out play-making him on his own line?

 

[francis246]

Your not always saying Marner is a playmaker who shouldn't be judged on goals? Why is Matthews, a top two goal scorer in the NHL since engering thr league, out play-making him on his own line?

Again… what does that have to do with you bitching about him having his stick up waiting for a one timer, as a criticism of the goal?

That’s what I thought, nothing. So you deflect the convo to something complete irrelevant.

And that’s not something I’ve ever said, so I have no idea what you’re talking about.

 

[ACC1224]

Again… what does that have to do with you bitching about him having his stick up waiting for a one timer, as a criticism of the goal?

That’s what I thought, nothing. So you deflect the convo to something complete irrelevant.

And that’s not something I’ve ever said, so I have no idea what you’re talking about.

Great snipe there, beauty goal.

 

[Evilhomer]

What has it come to that 600k more than Ranta, highest paid winger ever, signed a few months prior, is a terrific deal and a PR win?

The PR campaign may have already won.

I bet it will be higher than $12.6. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up giving him $12.9.

 

[Confucius]

It makes little sense to have 2 12 plus million dollar players on the same line. How many less goals does matty score without Mitch? How many does Miitch score? How many would any other Winger score playing with Matty? For that total number of goals you guys are ok paying someone 12 million. Unbelievable! Oh yeah he plays D as well.

 

[LeafEgo]

I bet it will be higher than $12.6. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up giving him $12.9.

Would that be a terrific deal and a pr win though?

I don't care too much myself about the nickel and dimes when it comes to a ufa superstar. The go or no-go is the important part.

 

[Evilhomer]

Would that be a terrific deal and a pr win though?

I don't care too much myself about the nickel and dimes when it comes to a ufa superstar. The go or no-go is the important part.

Who knows. PR wins don't mean much to me either. I just don't think there is any way the leafs will let him walks, which means they will ultimately cave to most of what Marner wants.

 

[LeafEgo]

Who knows. PR wins don't mean much to me either. I just don't think there is any way the leafs will let him walks, which means they will ultimately cave to most of what Marner wants.

It's just been a bunch of bird talk on personal feelings and thinkings through the season.

The Leafs made their position known last offseason with their actions and words. Everything since, actions and words from the source, has reconfirmed that.

He might be back, if that proves to be the best path forward, but he might not be. Playoffs will provide more information, and Toronto is waiting for that - its a pretty tricky situation.

Ultimately 11.5 or 12.5 won't matter that much, or at least it shouldn't.