Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

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I hear you on the Habs series and even then the issues of support in the bottom 6 rear their ugly heads. The problems with goal scoring on the Leafs has largely been an issue with its dismal PP combined with brutal support down the lineup.

Here are some on-ice 5v5 playoff numbers over the last 3 playoffs:
Rantanen:
Goals for/60: 3.04
Goals against/60: 2.61

MacKinnon:
Goals for/60: 3.04
Goals against/60: 2.61

Makar:
Goals for/60: 3.32
Goals against/60: 2.68

Barkov:
Goals for/60: 2.84
Goals against/60: 1.79

Reinhart:
Goals for/60: 1.56
Goals against/60: 1.50

Ekblad:
Goals for/60: 2.35
Goals against/60: 1.98

Kucherov:
Goals for/60: 3.05
Goals against/60: 2.04

Point:
Goals for/60: 2.29
Goals against/60: 2.12

Hedman:
Goals for/60: 2.98
Goals against/60: 1.93

Rielly 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.07
Goals against/60: 1.55

Marner 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.08
Goals against/60: 1.72

Matthews 5v5:
Goals for/60: 2.81
Goals against/60: 2.06


5v5, these guys really dont look out of place and may even be the best trio 5v5. Notice Marner has the 3rd highest on-ice goals/60 on anyone on the list. The point totals everyone drones on about are absolutely a function of the PP which I really hope is set to the on position for the playoffs. A hot and cold one if there ever was one. Not sure how much blame you wanna case on Marner for that one. For the record, The PP with Marner on it scored at a pretty dismal 6.69 goals/60. PPs without Marner on them were at 3.06 goals/60. Yea, Leafs scored goals at a higher rate with Marner 5v5 the last 3 years than the almost 40 minutes of PP without him on it. God the PP was putrid.

Notice how I took those teams top 2 forwards + their best dman? How well did their supporting cast do?

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Avs:
Goals for/60: 2.28
Goals against/60: 2.32

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Cats:
Goals for/60: 2.24
Goals against/60: 2.62

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Bolts:
Goals for/60: 1.89
Goals against/60: 2.53

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Leafs:
Goals for/60: 1.57
Goals against/60: 3.14

While there is a dropoff from the top guys, no team has been more putrid than the Leafs by a longshot. It's been a tradition during the Matthews era. Kapanen, Engvall, Mikheyev, Johnsson, Kampf, etc. etc. These guys somehow earn huge raises after failing so hard too.

We can be hard on Marner with the lopsided games "games 5-7" stuff but at least he's a guy that came through in big games in the playoffs at various points. I really do think weak goaltending and a dismal supporting cast are waaaay bigger reasons we are where we are, and I dont think the cap is a big reason why. We just chose the wrong soldiers to go into battle with really. Tons of other successful teams targeted cheap key players that saved their butts in the playoffs in crucial moments. Ours got run over.

With Stolarz having similar numbers to Helle this year and a revamped bottom 6, things could definitely change for the better. Are Laughton, Stolarz, Tanev, Carlo, OEL, Lorentz and McMann (who got injured just before last playoffs) gonna move the needle for this team? I'm fine with the numbers from those 3 main guys (outside of the PP). Feels like AHLers could do better than the rest at 5v5 play than we have gotten the last 3 years. So, yea, I think the new guys will be better. How could they not?
Even strength points/60 in playoffs:

Rantanen - 2.726
Nylander - 2.435
Marner - 1.945
 
I hear you on the Habs series and even then the issues of support in the bottom 6 rear their ugly heads. The problems with goal scoring on the Leafs has largely been an issue with its dismal PP combined with brutal support down the lineup.

Here are some on-ice 5v5 playoff numbers over the last 3 playoffs:
Rantanen:
Goals for/60: 3.04
Goals against/60: 2.61

MacKinnon:
Goals for/60: 3.04
Goals against/60: 2.61

Makar:
Goals for/60: 3.32
Goals against/60: 2.68

Barkov:
Goals for/60: 2.84
Goals against/60: 1.79

Reinhart:
Goals for/60: 1.56
Goals against/60: 1.50

Ekblad:
Goals for/60: 2.35
Goals against/60: 1.98

Kucherov:
Goals for/60: 3.05
Goals against/60: 2.04

Point:
Goals for/60: 2.29
Goals against/60: 2.12

Hedman:
Goals for/60: 2.98
Goals against/60: 1.93

Rielly 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.07
Goals against/60: 1.55

Marner 5v5:
Goals for/60: 3.08
Goals against/60: 1.72

Matthews 5v5:
Goals for/60: 2.81
Goals against/60: 2.06


5v5, these guys really dont look out of place and may even be the best trio 5v5. Notice Marner has the 3rd highest on-ice goals/60 on anyone on the list. The point totals everyone drones on about are absolutely a function of the PP which I really hope is set to the on position for the playoffs. A hot and cold one if there ever was one. Not sure how much blame you wanna case on Marner for that one. For the record, The PP with Marner on it scored at a pretty dismal 6.69 goals/60. PPs without Marner on them were at 3.06 goals/60. Yea, Leafs scored goals at a higher rate with Marner 5v5 the last 3 years than the almost 40 minutes of PP without him on it. God the PP was putrid.

Notice how I took those teams top 2 forwards + their best dman? How well did their supporting cast do?

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Avs:
Goals for/60: 2.28
Goals against/60: 2.32

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Cats:
Goals for/60: 2.24
Goals against/60: 2.62

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Bolts:
Goals for/60: 1.89
Goals against/60: 2.53

The entire rest of the team without the top 3 Leafs:
Goals for/60: 1.57
Goals against/60: 3.14

While there is a dropoff from the top guys, no team has been more putrid than the Leafs by a longshot. It's been a tradition during the Matthews era. Kapanen, Engvall, Mikheyev, Johnsson, Kampf, etc. etc. These guys somehow earn huge raises after failing so hard too.

We can be hard on Marner with the lopsided games "games 5-7" stuff but at least he's a guy that came through in big games in the playoffs at various points. I really do think weak goaltending and a dismal supporting cast are waaaay bigger reasons we are where we are, and I dont think the cap is a big reason why. We just chose the wrong soldiers to go into battle with really. Tons of other successful teams targeted cheap key players that saved their butts in the playoffs in crucial moments. Ours got run over.

With Stolarz having similar numbers to Helle this year and a revamped bottom 6, things could definitely change for the better. Are Laughton, Stolarz, Tanev, Carlo, OEL, Lorentz and McMann (who got injured just before last playoffs) gonna move the needle for this team? I'm fine with the numbers from those 3 main guys (outside of the PP). Feels like AHLers could do better than the rest at 5v5 play than we have gotten the last 3 years. So, yea, I think the new guys will be better. How could they not?
alot of good stuff here, although for the rates im not sure how you'd factor quality of competiton into it and how latter rounds wear and tear impact performances but nonetheless, still an eye opening stat, especially for the individual players.

I guess my question is why aren't the /60 stats translating into more points for our guys? For example marners Goals for/60 are higher than kucherov's, mackinnon's, and rantanen's but his ppg is much lower. Are we scoring a lot without them getting credit (G or A's) and if so why is it not the same for the other guys..are they more important to their team scoring? I understand players can make impacts offensively beyond the scoreboard, but at the superstar level i feel like a lot of the impact offensively WILL be on the scoreboard, especially for somewhat one way players in matthews and marner (sniper + playmaker).

Rantanen 38GP 49P (1.29) 21:32
Mackinnon 38GP 45P (1.18) 22:46
Makar 37GP 49P (1.32) 26:49

Barkov 55GP 45P (0.82) 21:59
Reinhart 55GP 33P (0.6) 21:21
Ekblad 52GP 19P (0.37) 23:19

Kucherov 34GP 40P (1.18) 20:45
Point 20GP 14P (0.7) 19:46
Hedman 33GP 29P (0.88) 24:41

Marner 25GP 25P (1.00) 22:59
Matthews 23GP 24P (1.04) 22:03
Rielly 25GP 21P (0.84) 23:52

from the stats marner doesn't play that much more/less than rantanen or kucherov and his GF/60 are around the same, so him sitting at 1.00 vs betweewn 1.18-1.29+ is a bit confusing to me.

what I am interpreting from these stats (could be wrong), is that florida's team doesn't rely on offence to win, because they both the goalsfor/60 and point production is low, but even moreso from their 3 forwards so when the team scores with them on (doesn't happen very often), they are getting points at a normal-ish rate considering how little they score with them on in general.

On the flip side Colorado depends a lot more on the 3 guys to play well and produce as both the goalsfor/60 and point production is high, so when the team scores with them on, they are the ones creating/finishing/setting up. Tampa falls in the middle with Toronto where their guys are scoring just as often as the other two, but the production isn't quite there, especially for toronto's case.

with their regular season performances and the way these stats are showing, M&M should settle closer to rantanen numbers but they aren't

on another note, the team stats are a bit astonishing, but I am guessing tavares and nylander are heavily carrying our goals from non top 3 leafs, all those guys you named + some others (Jarnkrok, Kerfott, etc....)are the definition of regular season players. They are perfect for getting you in.....and that's about it, they become utterly useless afterwards. And whilst in a long run yes our depth has choked hard, you'd think at some point the star power would put it together and go on a run based off of just them similar to the Oilers, not saying M&M need to be going McDrai levels, but the combination of JT+WN+MM+AM should've approach what those two are doing and they should've dragged their 3rd wheeler along for the ride, but that never happened.

But with Stolarz (and still Woll) in between the pipes we still have two legit playoff options, and a bit of a revamped dcore, i am hoping the bottom six should at least be a little better.

We will see how things go as the playoffs come around
 
Through the (almost) 3 seasons prior to signing...

P/GP (no EN)
Marner: 1.17
Rantanen: 1.12
Nylander: 1.08

5v5 P/60
Marner: 2.67
Nylander: 2.39
Rantanen: 2.18

PP P/60
Marner: 7.67
Nylander: 7.02
Rantanen: 6.18

Goals per Game (G/GP)​

Rantanen: 0.52
Nylander: 0.47
Marner: 0.32


5v5 Goals per 60 (G/60)​

Rantanen: 1.07
Nylander: 0.94
Marner: 0.65


Power Play Goals per 60 (PP G/60)​

Rantanen: 2.17
Nylander: 1.88
Marner: 1.18

Not to mention Rantanen is a far bigger body, much harder to play against and has way better playoff metrics.
 
TSN pro Leaf bias. Good one. :laugh: Where TSN ranks players is irrelevant. Their rankings are usually horrific. Some media personalities might like Rantanen more, but the actual hockey world values Marner more, and recognises that he is the better player. Very unlikely we'd be able to get Marner for 12.5m, but fingers crossed for a discount.
"Everything that doesn't agree with my opinion is biased!"

So objective and logical.
 

Goals per Game (G/GP)​

Rantanen: 0.52
Nylander: 0.47
Marner: 0.32


5v5 Goals per 60 (G/60)​

Rantanen: 1.07
Nylander: 0.94
Marner: 0.65


Power Play Goals per 60 (PP G/60)​

Rantanen: 2.17
Nylander: 1.88
Marner: 1.18

Not to mention Rantanen is a far bigger body, much harder to play against and has way better playoff metrics.
But but but but goaltending and Mackinnon!!!!

Marner PR crew going above and beyond today embarrasing themselves.
 
They are shameless. The price is set. It's in the 12m range at the max realistically even less but will be more then WN.
If were still living in reality Marner is still worth less than Rantanen.

Definitely not Draisaitl or Mack money like a couple of the lunatics around here were trying to proclaim.

Then again this all might be moot cause it seems the possibility of Marner walking via ufa has really gotten some legs this past week
 
just made two trades for the stretch run and everything is about how this guy is going to test FA. FFS, great player but im over it.
 
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I mean the guy has 50 pts in 57 games, propped up by that Tampa series, yet some guys post stats trying to pretend he is some playoff hero
He has 11 career playoff goals and has never scored more than three in a single postseason. I get that he’s more of a playmaker, but if you're earning a top-10 NHL salary, the production needs to be better.


To be clear, I think he’s a good player overall, but not at his current price tag let alone $13-14 million a year. Given his underwhelming playoff performances, that kind of salary just isn’t justifiable.
 
If Marner wants more then Rantanen he can chew rocks.
If his agent raises the tax issue you counter with making american dollars and spending canadian to live, thats a wash if not a net benefit on the canada side, not to mention the endorsement and legacy potential is far greater in Canada for a hockey player.

These guys say they want to stay in Toronto yet hold out as much as possible to squeeze an extra few hundred thousand. If Mitch wanted to endear himself to the market he would take 12 or even 11.75 (just above Willie) and smile about it.

And if he's terrible in playoffs again that number goes down.
 
If Marner wants more then Rantanen he can chew rocks.
If his agent raises the tax issue you counter with making american dollars and spending canadian to live, thats a wash if not a net benefit on the canada side, not to mention the endorsement and legacy potential is far greater in Canada for a hockey player.

These guys say they want to stay in Toronto yet hold out as much as possible to squeeze an extra few hundred thousand. If Mitch wanted to endear himself to the market he would take 12 or even 11.75 (just above Willie) and smile about it.

And if he's terrible in playoffs again that number goes down.

He will make more than Rantenan.
 
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